plenzmd1 Posted July 2, 2020 Posted July 2, 2020 16 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said: Private sector rehires 2.37 million workers in June, ADP says Big picture: The ADP data hasn’t lined up with the government data since the pandemic began in March, though over a longer time frame the two data sets trend in the same direction. For instance, last month ADP reported 2.76 million job losses, while the government reported net gains of 3.1 million jobs. On Wednesday, ADP revised its May decline to show a gain of 3.1 million jobs. all of this talk referring to ADP...only one conclusion. Everyone, right now, please overweight ADP in your portfolio. Thank you
Reality Check Posted July 2, 2020 Posted July 2, 2020 13 minutes ago, RealKayAdams said: Wait, you sure you wanna be ideologically associated with me in any way? Remember I’m the forum’s resident Green New Deal chica… I like your optimism for the U.S. economy, and in many ways I can understand it. Normally I’m not big into braggadocious American exceptionalism talk, but the evidence is strongly in favor of our country being the best in terms of work ethic (per capita GDP, longstanding Protestant work ethic reputation, etc.) and ingenuity (Silicon Valley, scientific research output, Hollywood, music industry, etc.). So I’m very bullish on the American people. It’s also true that all the other economic players around the world each have their own set of massive internal issues, including China and the EU. What I’m very bearish on, however, are practically all of our country’s institutions of power as well as the partisan bickering that makes it difficult for us to solve even the simplest of problems, like funding a police department. This stuff will hinder the U.S. from becoming the best economic version of itself. We do share the same long-term economic vision that is centered on extreme high-tech. Future economic superpowers will be those who can take advantage of space. Martian and lunar colonies are the eventual goals, but more immediately we can focus on fully automated space mining of our moon, Mars, the asteroid belt, and the 200+ moons of the other planets in our solar system. This would blow away China’s monopoly of rare earth metals, for example. Typical luddites fixate on all the big technological challenges or on difficult psychological questions that come with humans in space for extended periods of time. I see America’s historically optimistic disposition as uniquely suited to tackle these issues. I think government has a necessary role to play in expanding into outer space, even if it’s more of a pure funding role while private companies like SpaceX compete for these funds and manage the operations (rendering entities like NASA obsolete). I also like your helium comment. This is such an underrated and rare natural resource (its weight and chemical inertness allow it to easily and quite literally vanish into thin air). There could be huge unknown reservoirs of it on Mars, too. Thank you for the Brainstorm recommendation. I tend to find old movies more entertaining than new ones. Here’s a recommendation of mine that I believe is very relevant to the thread topic: John Carpenter’s “They Live” (1988), a cinematic MASTERPIECE starring the LEGENDARY film actor, Rowdy Roddy Piper. “I have come to chew bubblegum and kick a$$…and I’m all out of bubblegum.” So Shakespearian!! At this point, does anyone NOT believe the virus will be lingering with us throughout the summer and fall? The smart and safe solution is to stay focused on navigating out of the current economic crisis. Pass some combination of legislation for continued small business payroll protection, temporary M4A (not just for Covid-19) to protect the unemployed, rent/mortgage/student loan/credit card deferments, and at bare minimum another round of stimulus checks of at least $1200. Deficit hawks had most of the past two decades to challenge Bush, Obama, and Trump on this subject. They failed horribly. Prioritize this issue next year. It’s an important issue, but not the most important in 2020. MS-DOS? Was that an earlier version of the infamous Central American crime gang? So let’s think about those 50% who make more with unemployment benefits than by returning to work. Are some of them lazy government freeloaders ready to take advantage of a technicality? Maybe. I see this laziness trope come up a lot in political news commentary. But what about their motivation to secure employment-based health care in the midst of a pandemic for themselves and their families? What about their desire to secure a job or get their old job back before losing a game of economic musical chairs? What about their urge to return to a sense of normalcy and to restore a sense of purpose in their daily lives? A large portion of the recently unemployed are relatively low-wage service industry workers who may be afraid of getting the virus by going back to work and passing it along to loved ones in high-risk health categories. Many families also can’t afford day care, so the parents may need to prioritize staying at home with their kids right now. Some may even be using the extra time off to develop new work skills instead of catching up on all their favorite TV shows. And of course, many are still honestly looking but can’t find employment or anything that meets their reasonable criteria (hours, location, etc.). We shouldn’t automatically attribute the worst motives to such a large percentage of our fellow Americans. I personally can’t partake in callously ridiculing other people as lazy for not willingly toiling at often unfulfilling dead-end jobs, with often grossly substandard pay, in potentially unsafe and germ-friendly working conditions. Actually, I can’t think of a more damning indictment of modern America’s particular form of capitalism than the imagery of professional/managerial class types, with the benefit of being able to work from home during this Covid-19 pandemic, chastising front-line essential worker types about not getting back to work for their financial wheel-spinning crumbs (ooooh my inner Marxist is showing! I forgot I’m on PPP. I should cover up…). Wait so do the Larry Kudlows of the administration give President Trump the bad economic news too? Or is that it? Everything looks good right now and nothing looks bad? Are the large weekly numbers of new unemployment claims that keep rolling in merely mirages? What about those surveys taken that show many small businesses never coming back? Or recent reports of all the states and cities facing budgetary crises due to lost tax revenue from the Covid-19 shutdown? I could go on like this. Larry only lists recovery statistics that don’t really tell us much of anything this early in time, aside from the fact that economic activity immediately jumped following an unprecedented pandemic shutdown. And then Larry magically projects these trends all the way into next year, blithely ignoring any of the many other future economic factors in play. Maybe this was just a 1-minute highlight clip that left out a full and more balanced economic report, but Larry does have a reputation for over-the-top supply-side positivity bias and a major blind spot for how working-class consumption impacts macroeconomic activity. If Trump wants to surround himself with “yes” men unwilling to provide full information needed to make smart decisions, well then I guess it’s his own legacy and re-election at stake. If I was at that table, I would not have allowed Trump to get complacent with the gravity of the economic situation. If I was in the room, I would have also pressed Mr. Kudlow on why they won’t reveal the names of the small businesses receiving PPP loans. Or why the American people aren’t allowed any transparency in how big businesses from the CARES Act are maintaining payroll (Boeing?!) and becoming eligible for future bailout rounds. Or what Larry means by more deregulation as a key solution, which in his world would include a rollback of everything Wall Street was supposed to have learned from the Great Recession. Thank you for the response. "They Live" is a classic, and I will have to watch that again this weekend. No, I have no problem being associated with the resident green new deal chica, simply because I understand the motivation behind it. I have my passions about environmental issues too, and although we may have different models on how to get there, the goals aren't too dis-similar. Where people generally focus on global warming and CO2, I am focused on the genetic and chemical pollution of absolutely everything in our world, GMO, chemical fertilizers and pesticides, especially trash and garbage. I am also deeply alarmed at the lack of respect to the microbial world that makes living soil what it is supposed to be and its relationship to the microbiomes that we cultivate in our digestive systems. We have a ways to go, and we need to talk a little more about solutions that can start small as more affordable environmental solutions so that they can be scaled up. Saving the environment doesn't require trillions, and I think that we will get there together. I agree that partisanship is a big problem, but it remains part of a logical trend. Power is devolving back to the counties away from federal dominance, and this is due largely to the collapse of global influence on America's internal and external supply chains. Local people are going to have to be more involved than ever before if they are to weather the incoming storm. I have faith that we will. The TV paints more contrast between people than actually exists in the real world. We have come this far, and we can go so much farther. Learning from the past and applying it is all we can do. It won't be pretty, but that makes the goal that much sweeter if we can attain it. Sometimes, the only things that we appreciate are the things that require the greatest sacrifice. Were you ever a Deep Space 9 fan? 1
Buffalo_Gal Posted July 2, 2020 Posted July 2, 2020 Job gain of 4.8 million in June smashes expectations; unemployment rate falls to 11.1% * Nonfarm payrolls rose by 4.8 million in June, much better than the expected increase of 2.9 million. * The unemployment rate fell to a crisis low of 11.1%, also better than the 12.4% estimate. </snip> 3 1
ALF Posted July 2, 2020 Posted July 2, 2020 Trump touts business gains, warns of 1929-level economic 'crash' if he loses election https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-crash-election
Chef Jim Posted July 2, 2020 Posted July 2, 2020 7 hours ago, plenzmd1 said: all of this talk referring to ADP...only one conclusion. Everyone, right now, please overweight ADP in your portfolio. Thank you I do not approve of this message. ***All opinions expressed here are for entertainment purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. So bottom line. NEVER EVER take any kind of advice from knuckleheads on a message board. Carry on.........
GG Posted July 2, 2020 Author Posted July 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said: I wouldn't be counting my chickens for 3Q just yet, especially with the nonsensical pullbacks of reopenings in the NE and SW.
RochesterRob Posted July 2, 2020 Posted July 2, 2020 8 hours ago, Reality Check said: Thank you for the response. "They Live" is a classic, and I will have to watch that again this weekend. No, I have no problem being associated with the resident green new deal chica, simply because I understand the motivation behind it. I have my passions about environmental issues too, and although we may have different models on how to get there, the goals aren't too dis-similar. Where people generally focus on global warming and CO2, I am focused on the genetic and chemical pollution of absolutely everything in our world, GMO, chemical fertilizers and pesticides, especially trash and garbage. I am also deeply alarmed at the lack of respect to the microbial world that makes living soil what it is supposed to be and its relationship to the microbiomes that we cultivate in our digestive systems. We have a ways to go, and we need to talk a little more about solutions that can start small as more affordable environmental solutions so that they can be scaled up. Saving the environment doesn't require trillions, and I think that we will get there together. I agree that partisanship is a big problem, but it remains part of a logical trend. Power is devolving back to the counties away from federal dominance, and this is due largely to the collapse of global influence on America's internal and external supply chains. Local people are going to have to be more involved than ever before if they are to weather the incoming storm. I have faith that we will. The TV paints more contrast between people than actually exists in the real world. We have come this far, and we can go so much farther. Learning from the past and applying it is all we can do. It won't be pretty, but that makes the goal that much sweeter if we can attain it. Sometimes, the only things that we appreciate are the things that require the greatest sacrifice. Were you ever a Deep Space 9 fan? Some of what she said sounded like a Sisko ponderence. 4 minutes ago, GG said: I wouldn't be counting my chickens for 3Q just yet, especially with the nonsensical pullbacks of reopenings in the NE and SW. I know people are tired of me saying it.................Oh, never mind. 1
SoTier Posted July 2, 2020 Posted July 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, GG said: I wouldn't be counting my chickens for 3Q just yet, especially with the nonsensical pullbacks of reopenings in the NE and SW. Yes,pullbacks of the reopenings is sooooo nonsensical because 128,000 dead Americans and the tens of thousands more to die from Covid 19 are just collateral damage in the crusade to prove that Donald Trump is the greatest POTUS ever.
BuffaloHokie13 Posted July 2, 2020 Posted July 2, 2020 1 minute ago, SoTier said: Yes,pullbacks of the reopenings is sooooo nonsensical because 128,000 dead Americans and the tens of thousands more to die from Covid 19 are just collateral damage in the crusade to prove that Donald Trump is the greatest POTUS ever. Did I miss the official quota number announcement? 1
GG Posted July 2, 2020 Author Posted July 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, SoTier said: Yes,pullbacks of the reopenings is sooooo nonsensical because 128,000 dead Americans and the tens of thousands more to die from Covid 19 are just collateral damage in the crusade to prove that Donald Trump is the greatest POTUS ever. Tell me about the scientific logic of delaying reopening NY & NJ because AZ and FL counts are going up? Didn't Saint Andrew just do a victory lap in how he conquered the virus (on the backs f thousands of unnecessarily dead?) 2
BillStime Posted July 2, 2020 Posted July 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: Did I miss the official quota number announcement? Yes, bigly Trump, at a White House task force briefing, said, "It looks like we'll be at about a 60,000 mark, which is 40,000 less than the lowest number thought of." https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-downplaying-deaths-claimed-us-100000-milestone/story?id=70888441
Reality Check Posted July 2, 2020 Posted July 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, RochesterRob said: Some of what she said sounded like a Sisko ponderence. The Sisko... My favorite Star Trek Commander/Captain and Emissary... ...my favorite episode was when he was having flashbacks to another life as the science fiction writer Benny Russel in the episode Far Beyond the Stars...
RochesterRob Posted July 2, 2020 Posted July 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Reality Check said: The Sisko... My favorite Star Trek Commander/Captain and Emissary... ...my favorite episode was when he was having flashbacks to another life as the science fiction writer Benny Russel in the episode Far Beyond the Stars... Kirk is still my favorite but Sisko beats Picard by a small margin. I just watched the DS9 pilot the past two nights. 1
BuffaloHokie13 Posted July 2, 2020 Posted July 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, BillStime said: Yes, bigly Trump, at a White House task force briefing, said, "It looks like we'll be at about a 60,000 mark, which is 40,000 less than the lowest number thought of." https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-downplaying-deaths-claimed-us-100000-milestone/story?id=70888441 Well that's very confusing. If we're at 125k deaths, and the quota is 60k, what about that would indicate 10s of thousands more? It's almost as if you didn't follow the incredibly short conversation at all, but perhaps I'm missing something.
RochesterRob Posted July 2, 2020 Posted July 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, GG said: Tell me about the scientific logic of delaying reopening NY & NJ because AZ and FL counts are going up? Didn't Saint Andrew just do a victory lap in how he conquered the virus (on the backs f thousands of unnecessarily dead?) And a lot of businesses are on very shaky ground. How long before retailers that sold partially or fully in the malls realize they don't need the mall and go full online? 1
GG Posted July 2, 2020 Author Posted July 2, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: It's almost as if you didn't follow the incredibly short conversation at all, but perhaps I'm missing something. Almost? 1
Buffalo_Gal Posted July 2, 2020 Posted July 2, 2020 17 minutes ago, SoTier said: Yes,pullbacks of the reopenings is sooooo nonsensical because 128,000 dead Americans and the tens of thousands more to die from Covid 19 are just collateral damage in the crusade to prove that Donald Trump is the greatest POTUS ever. What a perfect display of hysterical histrionics! ? Please visit the COVID-19 thread in this forum. Even the panic porn people have toned it down as the numbers are looking better. 2
BillStime Posted July 2, 2020 Posted July 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: Well that's very confusing. If we're at 125k deaths, and the quota is 60k, what about that would indicate 10s of thousands more? It's almost as if you didn't follow the incredibly short conversation at all, but perhaps I'm missing something. Yea it’s just “gonna go away”
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