The Trump Economy

[GG]

3 hours ago, RealKayAdams said:

I wish I could bask in some of this economic optimism, but I’m not mentally there now. I get the desire to glom onto any positive news, and yes there is a powerful collective psychological component at play in economics that can singlehandedly fuel recoveries and that we want to nurture. But we always knew the economy would bounce back to SOME degree immediately following the quarantine, even if the details were poorly understood since an economic crisis like this has never played itself out before in our lifetimes.

 

Ok so perhaps here is where l have major disagreements in opinion with many of y’all, but to me the basic fundamental predicament still remains in that our entire political class has quite insufficiently intervened in the economic side of the pandemic (and the health one too). Furthermore, the deep economic structural flaws that were oppressing the American working class before March have only been amplified from the effects of the quarantine. The worst very likely has yet to come and could possibly start as early as August with a renter/homeowner housing calamity.

 

I’ll use a fun football analogy to frame the situation: the economic recovery is the Bills. The Patriots are neoliberalism. The refs are our crony capitalists and political leaders. Let’s maybe say Ernie Adams is the Federal Reserve. The Bills are losing to the Patriots 28-0 late in the first quarter. EJ Manuel (small business employers) just completed a totally sweet 20-yard post route across midfield to TJ Graham (low wage employees living paycheck to paycheck). We’re all celebrating and starting to believe the Bills can pull this off. Wait…stop. Lame football analogy. I’ll explain myself better in this thread (with facts and data!) when I have more time later this month.

 

Then do you find it odd that the people who want to reopen the economy ASAP are from the right leaning circles, but the lockdowns proponents are on the left and in the areas that will be mostly negatively affected by longer closures?

 

[123719bwiqrb]

3 hours ago, RealKayAdams said:

 

Ok so perhaps here is where l have major disagreements in opinion with many of y’all, but to me the basic fundamental predicament still remains in that our entire political class has quite insufficiently intervened in the economic side of the pandemic (and the health one too). Furthermore, the deep economic structural flaws that were oppressing the American working class before March have only been amplified from the effects of the quarantine. The worst very likely has yet to come and could possibly start as early as August with a renter/homeowner housing calamity.

 

Cancel all rent, immediately.  That is the only solution.

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

Cancel all rent, immediately.  That is the only solution.

Nah. Cancel the highest grossing movie of all time when factoring in inflation. It's the only true solution. After that maybe consider canceling a couple cartoons. 

[Cinga]

3 hours ago, RealKayAdams said:

Furthermore, the deep economic structural flaws that were oppressing the American working class before March have only been amplified from the effects of the quarantine. The worst very likely has yet to come and could possibly start as early as August with a renter/homeowner housing calamity

 

A bit of a stretch in both areas don't you think?

First, we have finally under this President, began to see a REAL rise in wages among lower and middle class workers. I say finally, because for decades real wages have been stagnant to say the least. Still work to do, but I'm wondering if you viewed an "oppressed" working class under Obama?

Renter/homeowner calamity? Based on what? Certainly not from the Covid crisis since many made more money unemployed than they did working. Of the lower income or disabled/unable to work, they should have kept the same income/assistance from the government throughout the crisis. So I have no idea where you might think this calamity is going to come from.

[123719bwiqrb]

1 hour ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Nah. Cancel the highest grossing movie of all time when factoring in inflation. It's the only true solution. After that maybe consider canceling a couple cartoons. 

 

I always liked Pinky and the Brain, is that still allowed?

[Buffalo_Gal]

2 hours ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

I always liked Pinky and the Brain, is that still allowed?

Nothing is allowed that will make you smile or laugh. Now, have a good evening, comrade. 

[123719bwiqrb]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Nothing is allowed that will make you smile or laugh. Now, have a good evening, comrade. 

Thank you heavenly sovereign BuffaloGal leader.

[Chef Jim]

19 minutes ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

Thank you heavenly sovereign BuffaloGal leader.

 

Whose turn is it to milk the goat? 

[123719bwiqrb]

10 hours ago, Chef Jim said:

 

Whose turn is it to milk the goat? 

I don't know about goat's milk, but I do love me some bird and warm snow.

[ComradeKayAdams]

On 6/16/2020 at 10:23 AM, keepthefaith said:

 

The deep economic structural flaws oppressing the American working class?  What might those be? 

 

I’m referring directly to globalization, the weakening of labor unions, the dismal social safety net, the automation of jobs, and insufficient minimum wage laws. In a somewhat more subtle way, I’d add corporate socialism, certain business and bank deregulatory measures, a dangerous deregulatory culture specifically within Wall Street, and the general set of economic policies that jeopardize the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The latter two impact everyone, of course, and not just the working class.

 

On 6/16/2020 at 1:48 PM, GG said:

 

Then do you find it odd that the people who want to reopen the economy ASAP are from the right leaning circles, but the lockdowns proponents are on the left and in the areas that will be mostly negatively affected by longer closures?

 

 

Meh, not really. I kind of expect everything to be politicized nowadays, even a pandemic. Sad but true that liberals would be biased toward any decision imaginable that would possibly hurt Trump, even if it’s an unnecessarily lengthened mandatory quarantine period that harms the entire economy (LA County being the most egregious to me). It’s also true, though, that liberals tend to live in urban areas where the dense populations make them more susceptible to infection, so it’s understandable why they’d be more fearful of Covid-19. Left-leaning people also tend to be more likely to trust authority figures in science and government, and they also tend to value human lives over dollar bills (hah!). I wonder if this political dichotomy would hold if the pandemic happened on Biden’s watch? I gotta admit, it’s been amusing to watch us leftists completely flip opinions on the coronavirus danger during the Floyd protests and now flip back again for Trump’s rallies. And we wonder why our opponents don’t take us seriously?!

 

My opinion remains that all of our political leaders were embarrassingly unprepared for a pandemic, should have aggressively quarantined and paused the economy in early March, should have had the government FULLY support its citizens during that time, and then could have begun the reemergence process a short month later in staggered stages with all the proper sanitation implementations.

 

On 6/16/2020 at 1:55 PM, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

Cancel all rent, immediately.  That is the only solution.

 

I don’t know what exactly “cancel all rent” entails. I don’t know what English words or slogans mean anymore! All I know is that a government-mandated rent and mortgage deferment for a couple months or so would have made a lot of people’s lives a lot less stressful.

 

On 6/16/2020 at 2:12 PM, Cinga said:

 

A bit of a stretch in both areas don't you think?

First, we have finally under this President, began to see a REAL rise in wages among lower and middle class workers. I say finally, because for decades real wages have been stagnant to say the least. Still work to do, but I'm wondering if you viewed an "oppressed" working class under Obama?

Renter/homeowner calamity? Based on what? Certainly not from the Covid crisis since many made more money unemployed than they did working. Of the lower income or disabled/unable to work, they should have kept the same income/assistance from the government throughout the crisis. So I have no idea where you might think this calamity is going to come from.

 

I’m always happy to see people recognizing that real wage growth has stagnated for decades! But now look at line graphs of nominal wage growth from the Paul Volcker era through the first three years of Trump’s term, and then compare with the line graphs of costs of various important goods and services (try: housing, education, health care, transportation, utilities, food, clothes, insurance, etc.). See an interesting trend? Now do the same for the years between Truman and Ford. Turns out that neither Obama nor Trump look too impressive. By the way, I’m going by data compiled from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Inflation-adjusted wage growth has actually fallen in 48 of 50 states (Arizona and Louisiana are the lone exceptions) from Obama’s term to Trump’s term. You may have confused nominal wage numbers with real wage numbers.

 

And yes, I believe the working class suffered under Obama as well. He was a below average president on the economy (on foreign policy and climate change too). Leftists praise him because he was charismatic and because he wasn’t George W. Bush. To me, Obama failed because he didn’t adequately address any of the fundamental economic issues I listed at the top of this post.

 

I’m basing my fears of a rent and mortgage crisis on two sets of surveys. The first set describe how a frighteningly large majority of Americans (up to 80%?) were living paycheck to paycheck before March with savings only within the hundreds of dollars. The second set describe how a frighteningly significant percentage of Americans during this pandemic haven’t thought they could pay rent for the next month (off the top of my head, I remember reading that a third of American renters didn’t pay in April). Also, I believe you may be speaking way too generally when you say unemployment benefits are too generous. Unemployment benefits and costs of living vary wildly by state. If I’m (hopefully) wrong about this crisis, then either the surveys were faulty, or the unemployment benefits supported people long enough before they found new employment, or the government actually stepped in to help, or maybe people found enough gas money between couch cushions during their quarantine??

[Dr. Who]

Refreshing to read an intelligent, cogent expression from the "left." No one objects to reasonable debate with folks that can think and identify complexity, nuance, and strengths and weaknesses in both those they oppose and those they agree with. And how nice and humane to act as if we are members of a community and not alien tribes at war with one another.

Edited June 20, 2020 by Dr. Who

[Cinga]

3 hours ago, RealKayAdams said:

 

I’m referring directly to globalization, the weakening of labor unions, the dismal social safety net, the automation of jobs, and insufficient minimum wage laws. In a somewhat more subtle way, I’d add corporate socialism, certain business and bank deregulatory measures, a dangerous deregulatory culture specifically within Wall Street, and the general set of economic policies that jeopardize the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The latter two impact everyone, of course, and not just the working class.

 

 

Meh, not really. I kind of expect everything to be politicized nowadays, even a pandemic. Sad but true that liberals would be biased toward any decision imaginable that would possibly hurt Trump, even if it’s an unnecessarily lengthened mandatory quarantine period that harms the entire economy (LA County being the most egregious to me). It’s also true, though, that liberals tend to live in urban areas where the dense populations make them more susceptible to infection, so it’s understandable why they’d be more fearful of Covid-19. Left-leaning people also tend to be more likely to trust authority figures in science and government, and they also tend to value human lives over dollar bills (hah!). I wonder if this political dichotomy would hold if the pandemic happened on Biden’s watch? I gotta admit, it’s been amusing to watch us leftists completely flip opinions on the coronavirus danger during the Floyd protests and now flip back again for Trump’s rallies. And we wonder why our opponents don’t take us seriously?!

 

My opinion remains that all of our political leaders were embarrassingly unprepared for a pandemic, should have aggressively quarantined and paused the economy in early March, should have had the government FULLY support its citizens during that time, and then could have begun the reemergence process a short month later in staggered stages with all the proper sanitation implementations.

 

 

I don’t know what exactly “cancel all rent” entails. I don’t know what English words or slogans mean anymore! All I know is that a government-mandated rent and mortgage deferment for a couple months or so would have made a lot of people’s lives a lot less stressful.

 

 

I’m always happy to see people recognizing that real wage growth has stagnated for decades! But now look at line graphs of nominal wage growth from the Paul Volcker era through the first three years of Trump’s term, and then compare with the line graphs of costs of various important goods and services (try: housing, education, health care, transportation, utilities, food, clothes, insurance, etc.). See an interesting trend? Now do the same for the years between Truman and Ford. Turns out that neither Obama nor Trump look too impressive. By the way, I’m going by data compiled from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Inflation-adjusted wage growth has actually fallen in 48 of 50 states (Arizona and Louisiana are the lone exceptions) from Obama’s term to Trump’s term. You may have confused nominal wage numbers with real wage numbers.

 

And yes, I believe the working class suffered under Obama as well. He was a below average president on the economy (on foreign policy and climate change too). Leftists praise him because he was charismatic and because he wasn’t George W. Bush. To me, Obama failed because he didn’t adequately address any of the fundamental economic issues I listed at the top of this post.

 

I’m basing my fears of a rent and mortgage crisis on two sets of surveys. The first set describe how a frighteningly large majority of Americans (up to 80%?) were living paycheck to paycheck before March with savings only within the hundreds of dollars. The second set describe how a frighteningly significant percentage of Americans during this pandemic haven’t thought they could pay rent for the next month (off the top of my head, I remember reading that a third of American renters didn’t pay in April). Also, I believe you may be speaking way too generally when you say unemployment benefits are too generous. Unemployment benefits and costs of living vary wildly by state. If I’m (hopefully) wrong about this crisis, then either the surveys were faulty, or the unemployment benefits supported people long enough before they found new employment, or the government actually stepped in to help, or maybe people found enough gas money between couch cushions during their quarantine??

Good discussion!

You bring up some good points, especially rising cost I'll get to in a minute. But first, not sure which charts at BLS your looking at and don't have the time to dig through the mess there :-). But this is what I'm referring to:

https://www.statista.com/chart/17679/real-wages-in-the-united-states/

 

As you can see above, the best we had before now was back late 60s (the blue line) when the average real wage, in 2019 dollars was 23.33. 

And even up to March this year the trend up has continued:

 

But as you can see, took a hit in April and May.  Now, to the cost of living you brought up, I think we are in total agreement that wages have not kept up with the cost of living over the years. Especially in the area of housing. FOr this, use the CPI calculator at BLS you can find here:
https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

In that top chart we see that average un-adjusted wages for the mid 70s was about 8 bucks an hour which comes to roughly 16000 a year. But punch that 8 bucks into that CPI calculator and to have the same buying power today would be 37.84 an hour

 

But if you go back to that top chart again, you see the average is only 23.38 now.  But now look at this chart for housing, go to the bottom one that show un-adjusted housing cost. 

https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/values.html

 

 

And we're looking at NY since that is where most of the readers are, and where I had the pleasure of growing up. I used the figures I did on purpose, because that 8 bucks an hour is what my dad made in the steel mills early 70s, he got up to 10 bucks by the mid 70's when he died. The farmhouse I grew up in he bought in the late 60s for 18,000 which at the time was just over what he made in a YEAR. If you look at the chart right above, in NY late 60s early 70s that would have been about right for average home price. For those just reading, that chart, from right to left is 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s, 2000.... so its a decade average. The point is, that is how the housing market was for decades. Cost of a home was about average for what the average yearly wage was of the time. 

But then look all the way to the 2000s and the home average price of 148,700. Even if we use that current average wage of today at 23, that will come out to roughly 46 thousand a year making home costs 3 times what they were.  I think THIS is the biggest area affected by the stagnate wages over that period we see above from the 70s to now and maybe a bit extreme, but we could do this with food or clothing too. 

So then, what caused it, and how do we fix it?

 

Edit to add.... The paycheck to paycheck issue is also an affect of this same issue to an extent, though as Americans we do tend to live UP TO our means.

Edited June 20, 2020 by Cinga

[Buffalo_Gal]

Trump signs a proclamation halting H1B work visas and other temporary visas
 

* President Donald Trump signed a proclamation Monday halting a wide swath of immigration visas.
* The proclamation significantly limits opportunities for immigrants coming to the United States to secure a green card.
* It will temporarily suspend H-1B, H-2B, H-4, J-1, and L-1 visas, affecting everything from the tech industry to students and au pairs.
* Those green cards would be on hold until the end of 2020, extending the 60-day freeze put in place back in April.
* In a call with reporters, administration officials claimed the move will prevent immigrants from taking 525,000 jobs as unemployment remains above 13% amid the coronavirus pandemic.
 

</snip>
 

"The exceptions — there are none under H-1B or H-4. H-2B, I noted — the H-2B exception is those dealing in closest to agriculture or aquaculture, seafood, but not the kind of restaurant, hotel, club, et cetera, stuff you heard referenced earlier," a senior administration official said in a call. "That's about 10 to 15 percent of all H-2Bs are in either seafood or food processing. This is, you know, packaging up food to be distributed or participating in the distribution. There are no exemptions for any of the L visas."
 

</snip>

[ComradeKayAdams]

On 6/20/2020 at 1:01 PM, Cinga said:

So then, what caused it, and how do we fix it?

 

<< TLDR Summary: Trump’s pre-pandemic economy was overrated. Wage growth isn’t keeping pace with the increase in costs of living. I mostly blame years and years of neoliberalism, but that’s oversimplifying the problem. I’ll discuss proposed solutions at another time. >>

 

Really nice post, Cinga! From my worldview, you’ve just asked the most important political question one can ask in contemporary American politics. Your question is specifically related to housing, but let me rephrase and broaden it slightly: “Why hasn’t wage growth kept pace with the costs of housing and education and health care, and how do we fix this problem?” I say this is so important because it relates to economic metrics for upwards social mobility, i.e. the American Dream. If this dream is more myth than reality, great social and political instability shall ensue…

 

But before thinking about causes and solutions to this defined problem, we first need to acknowledge that there IS in fact a greater problem. Many will describe the pre-pandemic Trump economy as excellent (or at least good enough) and will point to traditional conventional economic numbers like GDP and unemployment to assert that case. My claim is that the Trump economy has actually been performing at unacceptably sub-optimal levels and that we’ve been looking at the wrong economic metrics (such as wage growth and costs of living that we’re discussing here), ignoring an entire socioeconomic class of people, and allowing for a certain acceptance of low socioeconomic standards to seep through the collective American consciousness.

 

And just to reiterate, this isn’t intended to be a “Trump=bad economy, Obama/Biden=good economy” diatribe in disguise. I view the fundamental economic problems as having transcended the Rep-Dem political duopoly for decades now. From a generation-to-generation perspective, we are seeing an alarming decline in net wealth accumulation (that is, relative to chronological life stages and adjusted for population size and inflation) for Millenials. The Great Recession and the Coronavirus Recession (Depression?!) didn’t exactly help matters, but I don’t think these alone can explain the complete story. Generation Z is on deck now, so the economic landscape needs to change course soon or we may be looking at years of serious political and social uprisings ahead.

 

Ok, so what has caused this problem? Let’s ignore boring technical supply and demand curves of housing, education, and health care and think about more relatable history lessons. So the 1970’s were a chaotic and very critical transition era for our economy. Look beyond the obvious energy crisis and think about the end of the Bretton Woods monetary system, the mass emergence of women in the workforce, and the beginning of major trade deals with China. This era also fueled the 1980’s Reagan Revolution policies that would follow but had been brewing during the preceding two decades (Ayn Rand popularity, 1964 Goldwater). The 1990’s NAFTA deal was an important development as well (Ross Perot campaigns!). Oh yeah and the 2008 Great Recession which was also kind of relevant to the housing market (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, subprime mortgages, Dodd-Frank, financial derivatives).

 

So with history now on everyone’s mind, let me just list the 12 possible causes that I’ve identified and see what people wish to discuss later:

 

1. Major paradigm shifts and evolutions in American consumer spending habits.

2. Specific government policy interventions into the housing, education, and health care markets.

3-4. Reaganomics policies that Trump has prioritized fighting the libertarian corporate wing of the Republicans over: loss of manufacturing jobs due to globalization, illegal immigration.

5-7. Reaganomics policies that Trump has not addressed, much to the chagrin of the progressive left: no social safety net, decline of labor unions, business/bank/Wall Street financial deregulatory practices.

8. A Reaganomics policy on which the Democrats recently have successfully shifted the Overton window leftward: insufficient/nonexistent minimum/living wage laws.

9. A Reaganomics policy that I believe could be related to the problem at hand in subtle ways and that everyone can actually agree with (in principle): minimizing government waste and government program inefficiencies.

10. A major issue that both political parties have contributed to and which strikes at the heart of laissez faire economics: corporate socialism and crony capitalism and government corruption and the general macroeconomic effects from absurd wealth concentration.

11. A super technical but super important underlying issue: Federal Reserve monetary policies, including the national debt and austerity policies.

12. A rapidly emerging concern that no one really knows what to do with: technological automation of manual labor jobs.

 

As for how we go about solving the problem? Yikes I will definitely need more time and caffeine to answer that one. First, I’ll probably have to take us on brief side tours into the wonderful subjects of political philosophy and economic theory before I begin proposing practical solutions here that we can debate. Look for Chapter 1 of my Kay-munist Manifesto in the weeks ahead!

Edited June 23, 2020 by RealKayAdams

[Cinga]

12 hours ago, RealKayAdams said:

But before thinking about causes and solutions to this defined problem, we first need to acknowledge that there IS in fact a greater problem. Many will describe the pre-pandemic Trump economy as excellent (or at least good enough) and will point to traditional conventional economic numbers like GDP and unemployment to assert that case. My claim is that the Trump economy has actually been performing at unacceptably sub-optimal levels and that we’ve been looking at the wrong economic metrics (such as wage growth and costs of living that we’re discussing here), ignoring an entire socioeconomic class of people, and allowing for a certain acceptance of low socioeconomic standards to seep through the collective American consciousness.

 

And just to reiterate, this isn’t intended to be a “Trump=bad economy, Obama/Biden=good economy” diatribe in disguise. I view the fundamental economic problems as having transcended the Rep-Dem political duopoly for decades now. From a generation-to-generation perspective, we are seeing an alarming decline in net wealth accumulation (that is, relative to chronological life stages and adjusted for population size and inflation) for Millenials. The Great Recession and the Coronavirus Recession (Depression?!) didn’t exactly help matters, but I don’t think these alone can explain the complete story. Generation Z is on deck now, so the economic landscape needs to change course soon or we may be looking at years of serious political and social uprisings ahead.

 

Ok, so what has caused this problem? Let’s ignore boring technical supply and demand curves of housing, education, and health care and think about more relatable history lessons. So the 1970’s were a chaotic and very critical transition era for our economy. Look beyond the obvious energy crisis and think about the end of the Bretton Woods monetary system, the mass emergence of women in the workforce, and the beginning of major trade deals with China. This era also fueled the 1980’s Reagan Revolution policies that would follow but had been brewing during the preceding two decades (Ayn Rand popularity, 1964 Goldwater). The 1990’s NAFTA deal was an important development as well (Ross Perot campaigns!). Oh yeah and the 2008 Great Recession which was also kind of relevant to the housing market (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, subprime mortgages, Dodd-Frank, financial derivatives).

 

Excellent observations and I really look forward to what I'm sure will prove to be a very civil discussion that hopefully we can all learn from. To the bolded part, it looks like you have thoughts on the gold standard and I'm curious to know how you think this may have affected post Bretton Woods inflation and the loss of real wages.

[Reality Check]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/covid-19-will-accelerate-march-robots

 

 

Globalism is dead, and it is not coming back.

 

The global economy was about a security policy aimed at taking down the former USSR. It was never for the purpose of economic necessity for the USA. When the Bretton Woods agreement collapses and the USA stops providing free security for global trade routes one by one, we will see which economic models are actually more efficient than the American model. My money is on global collapse, not the collapse of the United States. South Korea, Japan, Mexico, and Canada will be our free trade partners for the foreseeable future. European nations will get a shot after the European Union and the Euro dissolves, although they are likely to not like the new terms. The time of the US financing and defending the global trade system is over.

 

 

 

 

George Friedman is one of the founders of Stratfor.

 

 

Edited June 24, 2020 by Reality Check

[ComradeKayAdams]

On 6/23/2020 at 7:58 PM, Cinga said:

 

Excellent observations and I really look forward to what I'm sure will prove to be a very civil discussion that hopefully we can all learn from. To the bolded part, it looks like you have thoughts on the gold standard and I'm curious to know how you think this may have affected post Bretton Woods inflation and the loss of real wages.

 

My short and honest reply: I’m not entirely sure yet!

 

At the moment, my best guess is that the move to a fiat currency has had a relatively minimal impact on the specific problem we’re discussing (real wages versus costs of living over the past 40 years) compared to other factors I’ve mentioned, but that it could potentially have a very major future impact during this 2020’s decade. I included this factor in my group of 12 causes because we know that one of the Federal Reserve’s main jobs is to manage inflation and deflation (setting interest rates and preventing bank panics are relevant too). So I didn’t want to exclude the possibility that the end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 (a critical event in U.S. economic history!) and the beginning of our defined problem soon after wasn’t entirely coincidental. Nevertheless, inflation seems to have been relatively free of volatility all these years, while the particular price-versus-time plots for housing and higher education expenses and health care differ greatly from the comparably more stable plots of most other goods and services. This is partly why I suspect other factors have had greater influences on our problem: mainly comorbid neoliberal policies suppressing suitable wage growth-versus-time plots, in addition to consumer demand behavioral changes and government interventions into these 3 specific cost-of-living markets.

 

My thoughts on the gold standard are that moving away from it was an overall positive and necessary decision. A fiat currency gives our country so many more options for solving big problems, whether they be ending economic recessions or funding major wars or managing major natural disasters. I do MOSTLY believe in Modern Monetary Theory which supports “artificially” pouring money into the economy during the bad times, without getting so worked up over austerity measures and balanced budgets.

 

Having said that, Ron Paul proponent types are also correct when they warn us that fiat currencies make us more susceptible to certain dangerous forms of government economic mismanagement. Fiat currencies do also tend to encourage reckless government spending. So we are right to be bothered by the fact that our national debt is about $26.3 trillion when our average annual federal tax revenue is about $3.3 trillion. Any policy of running deficits must have limits. I’m concerned that Modern Monetary Theorists haven’t defined what that approximate limit may be for the U.S. or what the economic signs would look like if we start to approach our debt limit. We are likely not anywhere close to something like a Weimar Republic hyperinflation danger zone, but I also need to hear from our political leaders some outline of a plan to pay off the debt during the good economic times, such as ideally the time immediately following the pandemic.

 

By the way, I’m open to all sorts of ideas for proper oversight of our national banking system and of the management of our fiat currency, even outside-the-box ones like a fourth branch of government for the Federal Reserve with similar checks-and-balances appointments as the Supreme Court. I‘m less into Jefferson versus Hamilton “end the Fed” types of debates that challenge the worthiness of the very existence of our national banking system, but I’ll have ‘em if the people want ‘em!

 

On 6/24/2020 at 5:57 AM, Reality Check said:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/covid-19-will-accelerate-march-robots

 

Globalism is dead, and it is not coming back.

 

The global economy was about a security policy aimed at taking down the former USSR. It was never for the purpose of economic necessity for the USA. When the Bretton Woods agreement collapses and the USA stops providing free security for global trade routes one by one, we will see which economic models are actually more efficient than the American model. My money is on global collapse, not the collapse of the United States. South Korea, Japan, Mexico, and Canada will be our free trade partners for the foreseeable future. European nations will get a shot after the European Union and the Euro dissolves, although they are likely to not like the new terms. The time of the US financing and defending the global trade system is over.

 

I think automation of many blue-collar jobs and some white-collar jobs is inevitable. But at what pace should we allow the process to proceed? And what are the displaced workers to do with their lives? My answer to the first question is “at a slow pace.” My answer to the second question is “dunno, but probably more careers relying on human creativity (tech innovation, creative arts, etc.) until AI advancements replace that too, at which point we will need to go to war with our robot overlords. In the meantime, major across-the-board changes in our nation’s education infrastructure would be wise.”

 

I doubt globalization is anywhere close to being dead! The globalists are the ones currently pulling the strings on the Biden puppet’s carcass. On the Republican side, the globalist rats (McConnell, Bush, Romney types) are also biding (Bidening??!!) their time for the day Trump can be replaced, be it this November or November 2024. From a nationalist’s perspective, it might be wise to begin thinking about uniting the populist anti-establishment wings of each main party. The Trump people and the Bernie people, as soon as they can settle a few of their other policy differences…

 

I like the comment about not providing free security for Europe and the rest of the world. That money badly needs to be redirected toward domestic matters.

[Buffalo_Gal]

This could go in multiple threads, but I went with economy...
 

How could this be unexpected? They closed all their stores, a bunch were looted, and they did not respond well to online sale vs store sales. Anyhoooo they are cutting jobs.

Article link
 

* Nike reported an unexpected quarterly net loss and a sales decline of 38% year-over-year.
* Digital sales soared 75%, representing about 30% of total revenue, as shoppers flocked to Nike’s website for sneakers and workout gear.
* But expenses for shipping and returns also put more pressure on the company’s profits. Nike’s margins during its fiscal fourth quarter shrank to 37.3% from 45.5% a year ago.
 

</snip>
 

The Portland, Oregon-based sneaker maker on Thursday reported an unexpected quarterly net loss and a sales decline of 38% year-over-year, as its business was hurt from its stores being shut temporarily, and online revenue was not enough to make up for that.
 

</snip>
 

Total revenue was down 38% to $6.31 billion from $10.18 billion a year ago. Sales in North America were down 46%, while sales in China were down just 3%, with many of Nike’s stores in that region reopening sooner during the pandemic than in the U.S.
 

</snip>

[B-Man]

 

 

Liberalism is dangerous to your wallet and your health

by Stephen Moore

 

Original Article

 

The most recent jobs report found that nine of the 10 states with unemployment rates above 14% are in liberal blue states. Ranked from highest to lowest, they are Nevada (25.3%), Hawaii (22.6%), Michigan (21.2%), California (16.3%), Rhode Island (16.3%), Massachusetts (16.3%), Delaware (15.8%), Illinois (15.2%), New Jersey (15.2%), and Washington state (15.1%). I call this the “blue state jobs depression.”

 

The states with the lowest unemployment rates are all conservative red states: Nebraska (5.2%), Utah (8.5 %), Wyoming 8.8%, Arizona (8.9%), and Idaho (8.9%).

 

It is hardly shocking news. Liberals are anti-business, and their policies are especially hostile to small businesses. 

 

 

 

[Reality Check]

32 minutes ago, RealKayAdams said:

 

My short and honest reply: I’m not entirely sure yet!

 

At the moment, my best guess is that the move to a fiat currency has had a relatively minimal impact on the specific problem we’re discussing (real wages versus costs of living over the past 40 years) compared to other factors I’ve mentioned, but that it could potentially have a very major future impact during this 2020’s decade. I included this factor in my group of 12 causes because we know that one of the Federal Reserve’s main jobs is to manage inflation and deflation (setting interest rates and preventing bank panics are relevant too). So I didn’t want to exclude the possibility that the end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 (a critical event in U.S. economic history!) and the beginning of our defined problem soon after wasn’t entirely coincidental. Nevertheless, inflation seems to have been relatively free of volatility all these years, while the particular price-versus-time plots for housing and higher education expenses and health care differ greatly from the comparably more stable plots of most other goods and services. This is partly why I suspect other factors have had greater influences on our problem: mainly comorbid neoliberal policies suppressing suitable wage growth-versus-time plots, in addition to consumer demand behavioral changes and government interventions into these 3 specific cost-of-living markets.

 

My thoughts on the gold standard are that moving away from it was an overall positive and necessary decision. A fiat currency gives our country so many more options for solving big problems, whether they be ending economic recessions or funding major wars or managing major natural disasters. I do MOSTLY believe in Modern Monetary Theory which supports “artificially” pouring money into the economy during the bad times, without getting so worked up over austerity measures and balanced budgets.

 

Having said that, Ron Paul proponent types are also correct when they warn us that fiat currencies make us more susceptible to certain dangerous forms of government economic mismanagement. Fiat currencies do also tend to encourage reckless government spending. So we are right to be bothered by the fact that our national debt is about $26.3 trillion when our average annual federal tax revenue is about $3.3 trillion. Any policy of running deficits must have limits. I’m concerned that Modern Monetary Theorists haven’t defined what that approximate limit may be for the U.S. or what the economic signs would look like if we start to approach our debt limit. We are likely not anywhere close to something like a Weimar Republic hyperinflation danger zone, but I also need to hear from our political leaders some outline of a plan to pay off the debt during the good economic times, such as ideally the time immediately following the pandemic.

 

By the way, I’m open to all sorts of ideas for proper oversight of our national banking system and of the management of our fiat currency, even outside-the-box ones like a fourth branch of government for the Federal Reserve with similar checks-and-balances appointments as the Supreme Court. I‘m less into Jefferson versus Hamilton “end the Fed” types of debates that challenge the worthiness of the very existence of our national banking system, but I’ll have ‘em if the people want ‘em!

 

 

I think automation of many blue-collar jobs and some white-collar jobs is inevitable. But at what pace should we allow the process to proceed? And what are the displaced workers to do with their lives? My answer to the first question is “at a slow pace.” My answer to the second question is “dunno, but probably more careers relying on human creativity (tech innovation, creative arts, etc.) until AI advancements replace that too, at which point we will need to go to war with our robot overlords. In the meantime, major across-the-board changes in our nation’s education infrastructure would be wise.”

 

I doubt globalization is anywhere close to being dead! The globalists are the ones currently pulling the strings on the Biden puppet’s carcass. On the Republican side, the globalist rats (McConnell, Bush, Romney types) are also biding (Bidening??!!) their time for the day Trump can be replaced, be it this November or November 2024. From a nationalist’s perspective, it might be wise to begin thinking about uniting the populist anti-establishment wings of each main party. The Trump people and the Bernie people, as soon as they can settle a few of their other policy differences…

 

I like the comment about not providing free security for Europe and the rest of the world. That money badly needs to be redirected toward domestic matters.

To your first point, these jobs will dry up at the international level first. The North American continent will attain steady growth even with automation because the rest of the supply chains will dry up. China can not defend the oil it needs from the Straitt of Hormuz without us defending that route...oh the irony. In the short term, globalism is dead. The new Bretton Woods will evolve from the USA establishing a more condensed supply chain with nations that have a strong Navy (Japan is the number 2 navy in the world) and this simplifies dominance of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Globalism will re-emerge, but with a brand new generation of characters and technologies originating out of US innovative model. Rural properties will rise in value and grass fed clean animals for food and non-pesticide GMO garbage will be at a premium.

 

To your second point, our enemies are financially immortal due to the current behavior of the commercial banks. Our own dollars are being used against us long enough. I am with you 100% on the need to invest in ourselves and develop our children far better than what we have currently done. Also, keep your eye on lunar mining and SpaceX. The moon has a great deal of He3 which is ideal for extremely clean and efficient fusion technology that is not public yet. This combined with nuclear propulsion technology and the ability to launch Mars missions from the moon will make for some inspiration to a lot of our youth. Envisioning a bold future combing a return to the land using less chemistry and applying the cutting edge technologies to our persistent problems. I am extremely confident in our future. Ideologically, I think we have very similar hopes for our Republic, and what it could be to the generations yet to be born.

 

Thank you for the response.

 

By the way, I rented Brainstorm last night on Amazon. Christopher Walken and Natalie Wood star in. If you've never seen it, check it out.