TPS Posted March 26, 2020 Posted March 26, 2020 3 hours ago, GG said: Yup, high end of the corporate bond market - Microsoft, Intel, McD, Berkshire, etc. Sure, who wants junk now?
GG Posted March 27, 2020 Author Posted March 27, 2020 1 hour ago, TPS said: Sure, who wants junk now? Lots of people. Different incentive for investors to buy quality bonds vs chasing yield in junk bonds.
TPS Posted March 27, 2020 Posted March 27, 2020 36 minutes ago, GG said: Lots of people. Different incentive for investors to buy quality bonds vs chasing yield in junk bonds. Negative yields on T-bills, dumping risky junk, shouldn't be a surprise that the high end is "hot"...
GG Posted March 27, 2020 Author Posted March 27, 2020 33 minutes ago, TPS said: Negative yields on T-bills, dumping risky junk, shouldn't be a surprise that the high end is "hot"... Completely different investment bases.
bbb Posted March 27, 2020 Posted March 27, 2020 4 hours ago, RochesterRob said: For guys like you it is all about the long run. Just keep an eye on it for now and realize it may take a considerable amount of time to get it back. Depends on how old you are
TPS Posted March 27, 2020 Posted March 27, 2020 17 minutes ago, GG said: Completely different investment bases. In normal times...
GG Posted March 27, 2020 Author Posted March 27, 2020 Just now, TPS said: In normal times... At all times. A bank or CLO will not dump high yield bank debt to buy Apple. Same with high yield mutual funds. Everyone is just riding out the storm, because it’s stupid to sell your high yield holdings at a discount now. Many buyout shops are more than happy to buy the debt at a discount for any willing sellers. There haven’t been huge outflows from high yield yet.
TPS Posted March 27, 2020 Posted March 27, 2020 Just now, GG said: At all times. A bank or CLO will not dump high yield bank debt to buy Apple. Same with high yield mutual funds. Everyone is just riding out the storm, because it’s stupid to sell your high yield holdings at a discount now. Many buyout shops are more than happy to buy the debt at a discount for any willing sellers. There haven’t been huge outflows from high yield yet. I suppose they can always buy cds too
RochesterRob Posted March 27, 2020 Posted March 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, bbb said: Depends on how old you are Age is important. Remaining value relative to life expenses and other forms of income are important. There is also the risk that the market could keep declining which I have mentioned before. If we could all predict the market accurately then we would all be wealthy but that is often a distance away from reality. The bottom line is he needs to pick a point where he would need to exit the market to maintain his current life style and watch for it. If the DOW falls off of a cliff in the span of a week then we are all screwed. Like if it went from where it closed today down to 5,000 in several trading sessions. Hard to imagine even today but not entirely impossible if the market keeps seeing bad news on COVID19. For the time being I would hate to advise somebody in his position to panic sell. 1
GG Posted March 27, 2020 Author Posted March 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, TPS said: I suppose they can always buy cds too Do you propose a better form of credit insurance in the market?
bbb Posted March 27, 2020 Posted March 27, 2020 1 minute ago, RochesterRob said: Age is important. Remaining value relative to life expenses and other forms of income are important. There is also the risk that the market could keep declining which I have mentioned before. If we could all predict the market accurately then we would all be wealthy but that is often a distance away from reality. The bottom line is he needs to pick a point where he would need to exit the market to maintain his current life style and watch for it. If the DOW falls off of a cliff in the span of a week then we are all screwed. Like if it went from where it closed today down to 5,000 in several trading sessions. Hard to imagine even today but not entirely impossible if the market keeps seeing bad news on COVID19. For the time being I would hate to advise somebody in his position to panic sell. I didn't get the impression he was selling.
TPS Posted March 27, 2020 Posted March 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, GG said: Do you propose a better form of credit insurance in the market? it was a serious statement
Chef Jim Posted March 27, 2020 Posted March 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, RochesterRob said: If we could all predict the market accurately then we would all be wealth. We can all predict the market accurately. And 1
RochesterRob Posted March 27, 2020 Posted March 27, 2020 9 hours ago, Chef Jim said: We can all predict the market accurately. And Who back in February was predicting the DOW to go below 20,000 as it did just a few days ago? Corona virus was known for anybody that cared to analyze its impact on the world. A year ago "experts" were proclaiming we were well on the way to 50,000. If somebody was truly all knowing then it seems that they could see the impact of one variable namely a pandemic. Before it all gets done we will see just how much the experts in fact do not know.
Chef Jim Posted March 27, 2020 Posted March 27, 2020 27 minutes ago, RochesterRob said: Who back in February was predicting the DOW to go below 20,000 as it did just a few days ago? Corona virus was known for anybody that cared to analyze its impact on the world. A year ago "experts" were proclaiming we were well on the way to 50,000. If somebody was truly all knowing then it seems that they could see the impact of one variable namely a pandemic. Before it all gets done we will see just how much the experts in fact do not know. You should only be in the market long term. Over the long term the market only goes up. Timing the market is usually a fool’s errand. You have to be right twice. When to get out and when to get back in. 1
RochesterRob Posted March 27, 2020 Posted March 27, 2020 20 minutes ago, Chef Jim said: You should only be in the market long term. Over the long term the market only goes up. Timing the market is usually a fool’s errand. You have to be right twice. When to get out and when to get back in. I agree with most of what you say. As far as timing the market goes you have people on this board doing that (not me) as far as guessing over the last week when to get back in. Did they all get out at 28,000? Doubtful.
Tiberius Posted March 27, 2020 Posted March 27, 2020 I'm just buying my Vanguard Mutual Funds the same as always. I don't own any bonds at this point in my life but will start buying them about two years before I retire so I have a nice cushion to cash in if when I am retired in case something like this happens. I'd hate to have to sell stock at depressed prices.
Foxx Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 https://twitter.com/Ir0nbelly/status/1243635945045479426 a Bloomberg opinion. an interesting one at that. The Fed's Cure Risks Being Worse Than the Disease 1 2
TPS Posted March 28, 2020 Posted March 28, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Foxx said: https://twitter.com/Ir0nbelly/status/1243635945045479426 a Bloomberg opinion. an interesting one at that. The Fed's Cure Risks Being Worse Than the Disease Trump, formalizing MMT. But, where will we get the money.....? Mnuchin and Blackrock, the financial death panel... Edited March 28, 2020 by TPS
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