Nanker Posted March 21, 2020 Posted March 21, 2020 People are more likely to die from the regular flus than from this Chinese stink bug. And we inoculate MILLIONS of people every year from getting the flu. 80,000 died in 2017 - 2018 flu season.
TPS Posted March 21, 2020 Posted March 21, 2020 17 minutes ago, RochesterRob said: We don't know that a downturn will not last for years. There are so many more working parts to the economy than there were during the 1930's. Also, once employment recovers that does not automatically mean the Dow recovers to the pre-virus level. In the mean time quite a few Americans planned on using those pre-virus gains to fund an active retirement. Purchasing things such as vacation properties, campers, ATV's, etc. and those purchases may be suspended indefinitely. Businesses depend on making sales on these kinds of items and their income will be reduced. Our economic model for the past few decades has been the velocity of money which means greater economic activity when a dollar is passed more readily through the economy. People holding money lessens economic activity. I've said elsewhere things will never go back to normal, and I agree, along with that, the Dow will never hit its previous peak in my lifetime (I'm assuming I make it through this). What I am pointing to is the ability to prevent the economy from going on a downward spiral once we get past this thing, which may be a year from now. As for velocity, yes it is a reflection of spending, but it is simply a number that is calculated from other values (GDP and money supply). The behavioral variable is the spending decisions out of income received.
3rdnlng Posted March 21, 2020 Posted March 21, 2020 25 minutes ago, RochesterRob said: We don't know that a downturn will not last for years. There are so many more working parts to the economy than there were during the 1930's. Also, once employment recovers that does not automatically mean the Dow recovers to the pre-virus level. In the mean time quite a few Americans planned on using those pre-virus gains to fund an active retirement. Purchasing things such as vacation properties, campers, ATV's, etc. and those purchases may be suspended indefinitely. Businesses depend on making sales on these kinds of items and their income will be reduced. Our economic model for the past few decades has been the velocity of money which means greater economic activity when a dollar is passed more readily through the economy. People holding money lessens economic activity. The government is betting that we can get the virus down to a level of infections that we can control and treat before tanking the economy to the extent that we have a long recession. They hope to see the virus level flatten out at an amount that we can handle. Once that is done then we'll be able to get back to work and get what was a red hot economy going again. The question that none of us can answer is when that flattening out will take place. Will it be 2 weeks or 8 weeks or more?
TPS Posted March 21, 2020 Posted March 21, 2020 14 minutes ago, Nanker said: People are more likely to die from the regular flus than from this Chinese stink bug. And we inoculate MILLIONS of people every year from getting the flu. 80,000 died in 2017 - 2018 flu season. And yet this ignorance persists.... The flu has a contagion factor of about 1.3, each person infects another 1.3, which is a very slow progression; CV has a factor of 2-2.5, which is what generates an exponential expansion of infected. If that number doesn't change, the number of deaths could hit millions. It's taken about 3 weeks for NYC to max out its hospital capacity. Please stop posting this nonsense. 1
RochesterRob Posted March 21, 2020 Posted March 21, 2020 1 minute ago, 3rdnlng said: The government is betting that we can get the virus down to a level of infections that we can control and treat before tanking the economy to the extent that we have a long recession. They hope to see the virus level flatten out at an amount that we can handle. Once that is done then we'll be able to get back to work and get what was a red hot economy going again. The question that none of us can answer is when that flattening out will take place. Will it be 2 weeks or 8 weeks or more? Again, I would point out the complexity of the current economy. Many small businesses operate on razor thin margins. Being without income for several weeks would take a very long time to come out of and in the interim creates hardship and affects the ability to service debt. In my mind many in the government are far removed from what many experience in the economy. For quite a few of us it is not a matter of waiting for our office to open back up and collect unemployment plus other subsistence payments during the interim. A pizza shop operator may be able to pay the house mortgage and run the household on subsistence payments but that will not pay the rent on the shop, the utility bill (heat has to stay on so the pipes don't freeze), and the food supplier to name a few. That aside many were planning on taking the gain in the Dow the past few years and spending it. Many businesses most likely were depending on it. Not just retirement splurges but just buying a basic vehicle, an addition or garage on the home property, or a wedding gift for the kids so they can start their own life. Etc..
3rdnlng Posted March 21, 2020 Posted March 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, RochesterRob said: Again, I would point out the complexity of the current economy. Many small businesses operate on razor thin margins. Being without income for several weeks would take a very long time to come out of and in the interim creates hardship and affects the ability to service debt. In my mind many in the government are far removed from what many experience in the economy. For quite a few of us it is not a matter of waiting for our office to open back up and collect unemployment plus other subsistence payments during the interim. A pizza shop operator may be able to pay the house mortgage and run the household on subsistence payments but that will not pay the rent on the shop, the utility bill (heat has to stay on so the pipes don't freeze), and the food supplier to name a few. That aside many were planning on taking the gain in the Dow the past few years and spending it. Many businesses most likely were depending on it. Not just retirement splurges but just buying a basic vehicle, an addition or garage on the home property, or a wedding gift for the kids so they can start their own life. Etc.. Landlords are going to be caught between a rock and a hard place. In most cases they are going to have to work with their tenants and find some sort of accommodation. It does them no good to evict a previously successful tenant that paid the rent with the hopes of finding someone else to pay the same rent. The stock market will come back as long as it wasn't overvalued in the first place. The same people may not have the same equity but someone will have it.
RochesterRob Posted March 21, 2020 Posted March 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said: Landlords are going to be caught between a rock and a hard place. In most cases they are going to have to work with their tenants and find some sort of accommodation. It does them no good to evict a previously successful tenant that paid the rent with the hopes of finding someone else to pay the same rent. The stock market will come back as long as it wasn't overvalued in the first place. The same people may not have the same equity but someone will have it. Not all landlords are fat cats like you see on television. Some have to have the rent to pay the mortgage, insurance, repairs not covered by a tenant, etc.. So much of the stock market is based on emotion. The DOW at 28,000 could have been overvalued and perhaps 17,000 could be equilibrium. A lot of people were banking on the gain from 18,000 to 28,000 and will be hard pressed when a recovery of the DOW does not come. I would agree with your notion if we were a nation of savers versus spenders. If we were savers the valuation of homes, properties, etc would have never appreciated during the last 40 years like it did. We took what our grandparents would have saved and through it into spending raising values.
3rdnlng Posted March 21, 2020 Posted March 21, 2020 1 minute ago, RochesterRob said: Not all landlords are fat cats like you see on television. Some have to have the rent to pay the mortgage, insurance, repairs not covered by a tenant, etc.. So much of the stock market is based on emotion. The DOW at 28,000 could have been overvalued and perhaps 17,000 could be equilibrium. A lot of people were banking on the gain from 18,000 to 28,000 and will be hard pressed when a recovery of the DOW does not come. I would agree with your notion if we were a nation of savers versus spenders. If we were savers the valuation of homes, properties, etc would have never appreciated during the last 40 years like it did. We took what our grandparents would have saved and through it into spending raising values. Of course landlords have their own expenses that need to be paid. This is an instance where shitrunsuphill though. As a landlord I'd make the best deal that I could with the tenant keeping in mind that it has to be realistic. Then if I needed to I'd go to my lender and see what they could do.
RochesterRob Posted March 21, 2020 Posted March 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said: Of course landlords have their own expenses that need to be paid. This is an instance where shitrunsuphill though. As a landlord I'd make the best deal that I could with the tenant keeping in mind that it has to be realistic. Then if I needed to I'd go to my lender and see what they could do. That is what many business people will have to do.
3rdnlng Posted March 21, 2020 Posted March 21, 2020 Just now, RochesterRob said: That is what many business people will have to do. I don't want to say it's commonplace, but it's commonplace.
B-Man Posted March 21, 2020 Posted March 21, 2020 U.S. Orders Up To A Yearlong Break On Mortgage Payments National Public Radio, by Chris Arnold Original Article Homeowners who have lost income or their jobs because of the coronavirus outbreak are getting some relief. Depending on their situation, they should be eligible to have their mortgage payments reduced or suspended for up to 12 months. Federal regulators, through the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are ordering lenders to offer homeowners flexibility. . 2
Nanker Posted March 21, 2020 Posted March 21, 2020 1 hour ago, TPS said: And yet this ignorance persists.... The flu has a contagion factor of about 1.3, each person infects another 1.3, which is a very slow progression; CV has a factor of 2-2.5, which is what generates an exponential expansion of infected. If that number doesn't change, the number of deaths could hit millions. It's taken about 3 weeks for NYC to max out its hospital capacity. Please stop posting this nonsense. You don’t know that any of that is true. Dr. Fucci now says the mortality rate is now reckoned to be 1.5% or less. I’m practicing social distancing because it’s the prudent thing to do. Again, we inoculate tens of millions of Americans every year. That builds up the herd immunity and therefore lowers the transmission rate for the flu. The China virus is not Ebola nor the Black Plague. You’re sounding like you’re more concerned about the stock market these days. Stop posting your hysteria nonsense. 1
bbb Posted March 22, 2020 Posted March 22, 2020 On 3/20/2020 at 12:18 PM, ALF said: If I heard Cuomo at his press conference just now correctly , yes July 15 for NYS also. Just wait for official notice. U.S. and NYS tax filing deadlines pushed back to July https://www.ontownmedia.com/coronavirus_pandemic/u-s-and-nys-tax-filing-deadlines-pushed-back-to/article_f0fca881-e9c8-5e43-a8da-e2441d593ea4.html Still double check I never finalize things till October 15. This doesn't seem to help me, as I still have to file something by 4/15, from what I heard? 11 hours ago, B-Man said: U.S. Orders Up To A Yearlong Break On Mortgage Payments National Public Radio, by Chris Arnold Original Article Homeowners who have lost income or their jobs because of the coronavirus outbreak are getting some relief. Depending on their situation, they should be eligible to have their mortgage payments reduced or suspended for up to 12 months. Federal regulators, through the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are ordering lenders to offer homeowners flexibility. . Anyone know if HELOC rates are low right now?
Tiberius Posted March 22, 2020 Posted March 22, 2020 Quote Goldman Sachs is now projecting a massive U.S. economic contraction in the second quarter of the year. The bank is forecasting a 24% decline in economic activity next quarter, compared to their previous forecast for a 5% decline. That’s because U.S. economic data (specifically manufacturing data) have already started to miss economist estimates, even before Americans started to stay home to avoid spreading the coronavirus. Their estimate, published Friday morning, is one of the most pessimistic on Wall Street. J.P. Morgan released estimates Wednesday that predicted a 14% contraction in second-quarter U.S. growth. https://www.barrons.com/articles/u-s-economy-could-contract-by-24-next-quarter-goldman-sachs-says-51584713292
B-Man Posted March 22, 2020 Posted March 22, 2020 10 Common Sense Solutions to the Economic Crisis Caused by China Original Article ABSOLUTELY THIS: Support your local businesses, while they still exist.
ALF Posted March 22, 2020 Posted March 22, 2020 Stimulus package now at $2 trillion as congressional leaders race to clinch agreement Sunday "From my standpoint, we're apart," Pelosi told reporters in the Capitol when asked if she expected a deal Sunday. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/politics/stimulus-package-coronavirus-negotiations-congress/index.html The large previous tax cut , now a lot less taxes will be collected , will the credit rating of the US get hit 1
Buffalo_Gal Posted March 22, 2020 Posted March 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, ALF said: Stimulus package now at $2 trillion as congressional leaders race to clinch agreement Sunday "From my standpoint, we're apart," Pelosi told reporters in the Capitol when asked if she expected a deal Sunday. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/politics/stimulus-package-coronavirus-negotiations-congress/index.html The large previous tax cut , now a lot less taxes will be collected , will the credit rating of the US get hit Where else you gonna go? 1
3rdnlng Posted March 22, 2020 Posted March 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, ALF said: Stimulus package now at $2 trillion as congressional leaders race to clinch agreement Sunday "From my standpoint, we're apart," Pelosi told reporters in the Capitol when asked if she expected a deal Sunday. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/politics/stimulus-package-coronavirus-negotiations-congress/index.html The large previous tax cut , now a lot less taxes will be collected , will the credit rating of the US get hit From my observations over the years any distance between Pelosi and making a deal is that Pelosi is insisting on irrelevant items in the bill that fit furthering her social agenda. Winning to her isn't beating this virus but coming out on top politically. While she says that she prays for the president daily, I rather suspect she spends a good period of time sticking voodoo pins in a DJT doll. 2 2
Buffalo Bills Fan Posted March 22, 2020 Posted March 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said: From my observations over the years any distance between Pelosi and making a deal is that Pelosi is insisting on irrelevant items in the bill that fit furthering her social agenda. Winning to her isn't beating this virus but coming out on top politically. While she says that she prays for the president daily, I rather suspect she spends a good period of time sticking voodoo pins in a DJT doll. Agreed
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