The Trump Economy

[RochesterRob]

31 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  I think that most people will be surprised as to the UC's that will develop.  The service industry will be hit hard as it includes restaurants.  I hate to keep going back to this but many eateries in college towns rely on full semesters to make their livings as they have slow downs to deal with during the summer and Christmas breaks.  Farmers relying on exports for commodities such as soybeans could see the US bottleneck thus reducing income.  Restaurant owners and farmers contribute to their local economies in terms of buying supplies and on the high end vehicles so the associated businesses will take a hit.

  Cuomo recommending that NY casinos close temporarily.  Del Lago is already wobbly financially and the employees will have to try to cope w/o a paycheck while this goes on if the casinos follow Cuomo's suggestion.

[TPS]

1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

Closing everything under the sun. Many businesses will not survive due to their overreach. Unemployment will skyrocket , which is right in their wheelhouse. 

Everything needs to be focused on limiting the impact of the virus.  Shut the economy down for a month, just like Wuhan did.  When you do that, then the focus is to make sure people's needs are met during that period.  Once we get passed it, the federal government will step in to get the economy moving again.  It's doable (the Chinese did it), it just requires actions as if we are in a war-time setting.  

 

[Boatdrinks]

3 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Cuomo recommending that NY casinos close temporarily.  Del Lago is already wobbly financially and the employees will have to try to cope w/o a paycheck while this goes on if the casinos follow Cuomo's suggestion.

New York ( among some other states) will be a veritable wasteland when Cuomo is finished with it. I noticed he teamed up with other lib Govs to make sure people couldn’t go to a nearby state to get a meal, drink etc. 

[GG]

9 minutes ago, TPS said:

Of course it's not a free lunch, and no person making decisions thinks so--It is cost-benefit.  Do you really think the costs would be less if we went around doing business as usual?  And it's not just those who get the virus, many needing any kind of critical care will not get it once the system hits capacity. 

It seems clear to me that the best course of action now--the one that will reduce the number of deaths intended or unintende--is to shut everything down like Wuhan and Lodi did.    

 

 

There are no easy answers, especially in the face of unknown.  I do think that once the tide turned to isolation, people treat it as a panacea, like DiBlasio shutting down schools for over one month.   That essentially shuts the largest city down by one month.  The aftershocks will linger for a long time.

 

To me, the decision is similar to a wartime general who knows that a certain number of soldiers will die to prevent more from dying or to keep a position.  

 

The element of time is missing from the full explanation to flatten the curve.  Hypothetically it makes all the sense in the world to spread out the incidence of the disease.  But the length of hospital stays complicate the story by a lot.   There's no guarantee that a flatter curve would be much more effective if there's a 12-day ICU stay per patient.  To me that means just a longer stress time for the hospitals, with possibly only minor benefits, while you're destroying the other parts of healthcare systems and the overall economy.

 

None of these are good choices, but people are treating complete social shutdowns as the best solution, when in reality it may not be.

[Albwan]

1 hour ago, 3rdnlng said:

    Folks haven't quite got it about the tibs and garys on this board, they are purposely here

to harass and incite...full on ignore is the only answer, because the responses that they get

are exactly what they are looking for, particularly negative ones. It nourishes and profits them. 

They are looking to provoke to get certain responses, and since all this is being archived,

leaving evidence for future control. 

  These guys are the modern day brown shirts, modified to operate on the internet.

[row_33]

1 minute ago, Albwan said:

    Folks haven't quite got it about the tibs and garys on this board, they are purposely here

to harass and incite...full on ignore is the only answer, because the responses that they get

are exactly what they are looking for, particularly negative ones. It nourishes and profits them. 

They are looking to provoke to get certain responses, and since all this is being archived,

leaving evidence for future control. 

  These guys are the modern day brown shirts, modified to operate on the internet.

 

and ignored like forever ago

 

[Foxx]

6 minutes ago, Albwan said:

    Folks haven't quite got it about the tibs and garys on this board, they are purposely here

to harass and incite...full on ignore is the only answer, because the responses that they get

are exactly what they are looking for, particularly negative ones. It nourishes and profits them. 

They are looking to provoke to get certain responses, and since all this is being archived,

leaving evidence for future control. 

  These guys are the modern day brown shirts, modified to operate on the internet.

while that may be true, i certainly do not want to reside in an echo chamber.

[RochesterRob]

21 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  Cuomo recommending that NY casinos close temporarily.  Del Lago is already wobbly financially and the employees will have to try to cope w/o a paycheck while this goes on if the casinos follow Cuomo's suggestion.

  No longer a recommendation.  The casinos must close effective 8PM this evening until further notice.

[3rdnlng]

Just now, RochesterRob said:

  No longer a recommendation.  The casinos must close effective 8PM this evening until further notice.

Don't bet on it.

[TPS]

14 minutes ago, GG said:

 

There are no easy answers, especially in the face of unknown.  I do think that once the tide turned to isolation, people treat it as a panacea, like DiBlasio shutting down schools for over one month.   That essentially shuts the largest city down by one month.  The aftershocks will linger for a long time.

 

To me, the decision is similar to a wartime general who knows that a certain number of soldiers will die to prevent more from dying or to keep a position.  

 

The element of time is missing from the full explanation to flatten the curve.  Hypothetically it makes all the sense in the world to spread out the incidence of the disease.  But the length of hospital stays complicate the story by a lot.   There's no guarantee that a flatter curve would be much more effective if there's a 12-day ICU stay per patient.  To me that means just a longer stress time for the hospitals, with possibly only minor benefits, while you're destroying the other parts of healthcare systems and the overall economy.

 

None of these are good choices, but people are treating complete social shutdowns as the best solution, when in reality it may not be.

We disagree.  I'm done blaming and arguing.  Stay safe.

[Bob in Mich]

21 minutes ago, GG said:

 

There are no easy answers, especially in the face of unknown.  I do think that once the tide turned to isolation, people treat it as a panacea, like DiBlasio shutting down schools for over one month.   That essentially shuts the largest city down by one month.  The aftershocks will linger for a long time.

 

To me, the decision is similar to a wartime general who knows that a certain number of soldiers will die to prevent more from dying or to keep a position.  

 

The element of time is missing from the full explanation to flatten the curve.  Hypothetically it makes all the sense in the world to spread out the incidence of the disease.  But the length of hospital stays complicate the story by a lot.   There's no guarantee that a flatter curve would be much more effective if there's a 12-day ICU stay per patient.  To me that means just a longer stress time for the hospitals, with possibly only minor benefits, while you're destroying the other parts of healthcare systems and the overall economy.

 

None of these are good choices, but people are treating complete social shutdowns as the best solution, when in reality it may not be.

 

You make some good points.  Not sure how you did that.  It is completely out of character for you, eh?      lol

 

There are a lot of consequences about to pop up unexpectedly....you are right.  The economy is going to be hammered hard and plenty of businesses will fail.  Like TPS though, I think forcing the social distancing as has been done in other countries, is the best course.  I think simply put and agreeing with you again, we are just at a point where all paths suck.  Putting health concerns over economic concerns, while terribly painful, seems right to me.  Is it possibly not the proper course?  Certainly, but it is the one that has seemed the most effective so far.

 

While there are a whole lot of unknowns, we can see our future by looking at the course the outbreak has taken in other countries and how they have reacted.  Looking at China, they seemed to have gotten control with shutdown but there may be a second peak coming after everyone restarts their lives and businesses.  We will have to watch closely and hopefully we can learn and apply those lessons to the US outbreak.

 

 

[Deranged Rhino]

10 minutes ago, Bob in Mich said:

 

You make some good points.  Not sure how you did that.  It is completely out of character for you, eh?     

 

*****head can't stop being a *****head, and once again proves that his takes are the hottest of hot takes. Saying GG doesn't make good points often is right up there with Bob's complaints of "WHERE ARE THE TAPES?!"

 

 

 

If ignorance was catching, Bob's posts would be quarantined. 

[Tiberius]

1 hour ago, westside2 said:

That's the left's goal. They have run out of ammunition, now they are down to throwing their guns. 

So this is all a plot or something? 

 

23 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

*****head can't stop being a *****head, and once again proves that his takes are the hottest of hot takes. Saying GG doesn't make good points often is right up there with Bob's complaints of "WHERE ARE THE TAPES?!"

 

 

 

If ignorance was catching, Bob's posts would be quarantined. 

Oh whatever. If lies, conspiracies and complete unfettered BS were catching you would be locked up for sure 

[Westside]

18 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

So this is all a plot or something? 

 

Oh whatever. If lies, conspiracies and complete unfettered BS were catching you would be locked up for sure 

You remember what obama said. Never let a crisis go to waste. What a coincidence that the Chinese, who are "friends" with Democrats, just happen to release a virus after all attempts to remove Trump failed. 

Yeah, tank the economy, get Biden elected. 

[Tiberius]

1 minute ago, westside2 said:

You remember what obama said. Never let a crisis go to waste. What a coincidence that the Chinese, who are "friends" with Democrats, just happen to release a virus after all attempts to remove Trump failed. 

Yeah, tank the economy, get Biden elected. 

Ok, I admit it. We did it and it's working! 

[Westside]

Just now, Tiberius said:

Ok, I admit it. We did it and it's working! 

Would not be surprised. The left have no morals.

[RochesterRob]

34 minutes ago, westside2 said:

You remember what obama said. Never let a crisis go to waste. What a coincidence that the Chinese, who are "friends" with Democrats, just happen to release a virus after all attempts to remove Trump failed. 

Yeah, tank the economy, get Biden elected. 

  At best the Chinese were friendly competitors with the US.  Would not surprise me at all that this was an intentional outbreak with the US as a general target.  I wonder what is sitting in secret with our allies' intelligence services such as Great Britain?

[TPS]

On 2/27/2020 at 10:54 AM, TH3 said:

21000

Looks like it will hit your mark by day's end.

[TH3]

33 minutes ago, TPS said:

Looks like it will hit your mark by day's end.

Oh - its going to be worse than that before this is over....

 

I consult for banks.....they have NO IDEA  on what is to come ....We work on an economy totally based on leverage....everything is leveraged to the max...great when the weather is sunny...This is way different and much harder in many ways to deal with than 2008....back then we had slices of the economy that were doing poorly and others that were in recession....but they were for the most part actually running....Now we have entire sections of the economy with no income streams....no one has an answer for that....

 

Fortunately....The White House financial team has taken advantage of the recent good times and have put the Federal Balance Sheet in good order to have enough ammunition to deal the news on hand....

[bbb]

Wait, there's a TPS and a TH3?