keepthefaith Posted March 4, 2020 Posted March 4, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, TPS said: Do people with the flu get quarantined? Do governments shut down social events or quarantine entire cities because of the flu? What do you think would happen if we treated this as casually as we do the flu? Exactly. There is a huge difference between the two. The flu is a known commodity in society, happens yearly, there are vaccinations to prevent some of it and the death rate is very very low. Most of us have had it multiple times and know how to deal with it. This coronavirus thus far is an unknown in comparison. It appears to be highly contagious, there are no vaccines or treatments to date and the death rate (even though only the weak among us seem to die) is much higher. Fear of the unknown will change people's behavior and significantly if the number of active cases continues to increase. It doesn't take much of a change in consumer confidence and spending to cause a recession. We've been pedal to the metal with stimuli for the last decade + which has resulted in modest GDP growth on average. We love what that long expansion has done for equity markets but I don't see how this ***** virus doesn't cause a recession unless it quickly (in the next month or two) dissipates. It won't take much to go from +2.5% to -2.5% GDP for a couple quarters or more. Edited March 4, 2020 by keepthefaith 2
TPS Posted March 4, 2020 Posted March 4, 2020 12 hours ago, keepthefaith said: Exactly. There is a huge difference between the two. The flu is a known commodity in society, happens yearly, there are vaccinations to prevent some of it and the death rate is very very low. Most of us have had it multiple times and know how to deal with it. This coronavirus thus far is an unknown in comparison. It appears to be highly contagious, there are no vaccines or treatments to date and the death rate (even though only the weak among us seem to die) is much higher. Fear of the unknown will change people's behavior and significantly if the number of active cases continues to increase. It doesn't take much of a change in consumer confidence and spending to cause a recession. We've been pedal to the metal with stimuli for the last decade + which has resulted in modest GDP growth on average. We love what that long expansion has done for equity markets but I don't see how this ***** virus doesn't cause a recession unless it quickly (in the next month or two) dissipates. It won't take much to go from +2.5% to -2.5% GDP for a couple quarters or more. Good take. I expect we'll see a highly volatile market until there's some clarity. And to reiterate, if this admin fails to be transparent, the response (market) will be worse. Futures indicating a big positive swing today...
Foxx Posted March 4, 2020 Posted March 4, 2020 (edited) this one goes in the 'delusional' folder. cue tibs in 3...2... https://twitter.com/eldamon/status/1235228736817070080 Edited March 4, 2020 by Foxx 3
Tiberius Posted March 4, 2020 Posted March 4, 2020 ? Biden already making things better! U.S. stocks post big gains as Biden’s surge offers respite from coronavirus news The Dow Jones industrial average jumped more than 600 points at the open. By Taylor Telford and Thomas Heath 1 hour ago
Foxx Posted March 4, 2020 Posted March 4, 2020 Just now, Tiberius said: ? Biden already making things better! U.S. stocks post big gains as Biden’s surge offers respite from coronavirus news The Dow Jones industrial average jumped more than 600 points at the open. By Taylor Telford and Thomas Heath 1 hour ago yep, delusional.
3rdnlng Posted March 4, 2020 Posted March 4, 2020 Gee, maybe the fear of a Sanders victory has lessened somewhat and given investors a little hope. Healthcare stocks have improved dramatically.
Tiberius Posted March 4, 2020 Posted March 4, 2020 Government bailout of Trump economy being considered. The Libertarians won't say a thing at all. Tools Eight months from a general election, President Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers are considering an urgent effort to rescue the U.S. economy from a coronavirus panic. Trump advisers and GOP lawmakers have spent the past few days pushing the White House to develop a package of economic stimulus measures, designed to prop up the economy amid growing fears about the spread of the coronavirus in the U.S. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/03/trump-economic-record-coronavirus-119920
US Egg Posted March 4, 2020 Posted March 4, 2020 "Biden’s Strong Showing Pushes Stock Futures Higher" 3
keepthefaith Posted March 4, 2020 Posted March 4, 2020 45 minutes ago, I am the egg man said: "Biden’s Strong Showing Pushes Stock Futures Higher" I'm fine with millions of investors believing that. 2
B-Man Posted March 4, 2020 Posted March 4, 2020 2:30 EST Up over +825 now............ Thanks Joe. . 1
KRC Posted March 4, 2020 Posted March 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, B-Man said: 2:30 EST Up over +825 now............ Thanks Joe. . Is this another way for Obama to start taking credit again? 1
Koko78 Posted March 4, 2020 Posted March 4, 2020 3 hours ago, KRC said: Is this another way for Obama to start taking credit again? Of course. PRAISE BE OBAMA!
SoCal Deek Posted March 5, 2020 Posted March 5, 2020 Wait a minute here....Maybe the market's reacting to Mini-Mike pulling out. Now he's free to invest his Billions in stocks rather than in nonsensical television commercials. 2
B-Man Posted March 5, 2020 Posted March 5, 2020 Data show U.S. economy on solid footing as coronavirus fears mount. U.S. services sector activity jumped to a one-year high in February, suggesting strength in the economy before a recent escalation of recession fears ignited by the coronavirus epidemic that prompted an emergency interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The economy’s solid fundamentals were also underscored by other data on Wednesday showing private payrolls increased more than expected in February. Sad news for Democrats hoping for a recession to use against Trump, but good news for America. 1 2
GG Posted March 5, 2020 Author Posted March 5, 2020 This news should shock no one who believes in the seductive and abusive power of "organized" labor. Unions are just a smaller versions of big government. Quote Federal prosecutors Thursday charged former United Auto Workers President Gary Jones with embezzling more than $1.5 million, according to a criminal filing that indicates he will plead guilty and cooperate with an investigation that could lead to the government seizing control of one of the nation's most powerful unions. 1 1 1
TPS Posted March 5, 2020 Posted March 5, 2020 29 minutes ago, GG said: This news should shock no one who believes in the seductive and abusive power of "organized" labor. Unions are just a smaller versions of big government. Much like bankers. I've often thought about posting the weekly cases of fraud and abuse in finance.....but I don't have that much time...
GG Posted March 5, 2020 Author Posted March 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, TPS said: Much like bankers. I've often thought about posting the weekly cases of fraud and abuse in finance.....but I don't have that much time... Difference being is that you can choose between dozens of banks and can switch in a matter of minutes, but are saddled with one union or one government office.
TPS Posted March 5, 2020 Posted March 5, 2020 9 minutes ago, Tiberius said: The Biden bounce appears to be over... We haven't even started massively testing yet, so as soon as that happens, the number of cases will rise significantly. The market will not be able to stand the weight of that, no matter what the Fed does. We will most certainly see a much bigger fiscal response in the near future. But, yeah, listen to Trump and go to work even if your sick....
Tiberius Posted March 5, 2020 Posted March 5, 2020 1 minute ago, TPS said: We haven't even started massively testing yet, so as soon as that happens, the number of cases will rise significantly. The market will not be able to stand the weight of that, no matter what the Fed does. We will most certainly see a much bigger fiscal response in the near future. But, yeah, listen to Trump and go to work even if your sick.... Out of his own political self preservation, you'd think he would just shut up.
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