row_33 Posted January 10, 2020 Posted January 10, 2020 and Reagan (and Thatcher) were elected on platforms of austerity economic plans that were going to be very grim, then won re-elections on coming out of the gloom
TPS Posted January 10, 2020 Posted January 10, 2020 22 minutes ago, DC Tom said: Economic cycles don't begin and end with presidential terms. A better measure would be Trump's 35 months in office vs. any continuous 35 month period of time of any other president. And the result may very well be the same. There really is no other comparative period for this. The reason I predicted (back in January 2018) a recession in 2020 was because I thought the stimulus from the tax cuts and spending increases would cause the economy to accelerate, leading to inflationary pressures, causing the FED to raise interest rates faster than planned (the FED raising its short term rate is the cause of the inverted yield curve that has preceded the last 5-6 recessions). However, the relationship that I (and the FED) relied on has changed....AGAIN. The relationship between unemployment and inflation (the Phillips Curve) has changed. The FED uses the concept of NAIRU, the rate of unemployment it believes will trigger inflationary pressures from wage gains) to guide its interest rate policy. In the mid 1990s, NAIRU was believed to be about 6%, and Greenspan argued it had decreased due to technology, so the FED held steady on rates and allowed the economy to expand, not raising them until mid 1999--hence the long Clinton expansion. Based on that experience, they adopted a new estimate for NAIRU of 4.5%. The FED started raising rates when unemployment hit 5% back in December of 2015 because it thought inflationary pressures would start to build. However, inflation remained subdued, even as unemployment dipped below 4% in early 2018. The FED was struggling to explain things, and some of the doves were starting to argue they should hold steady on rates until inflationary pressure could actually be observed. Then Trump's trade war started impacting manufacturing last year, so they started to lower rates again. So currently no one at the FED really knows what the value of NAIRU is, so they have taken a wait and see approach. As I've stated several times, employment growth under Trump hasn't been much different than the previous several years under Obama. I've posted these before, the average monthly job gains by year for the past 6 years: 2014 251K 2015 227K 2016 193K 2017 179K 2018 223K 2019 177K Trump's job gains have not been extraordinary, and neither has RGDP growth. The real issue is why hasn't the low unemployment rate of 3.5% caused an acceleration in wages leading to higher inflationary pressures? I'm in the camp that believes workers' bargaining power is non-existent because of things like globalization, the decline in unionization, non-compete clauses, and economic concentration (monopolies) which give large corporations "monopsony" power in bargaining with workers. While we have seen some uptick in wage gains, they are not enough to cause inflation to exceed the FED's 2% target. Eventually, one would think, we would have to see a trigger point, with businesses having to raise wages to attract even moderately skilled workers. Interesting times. Prognosticating, economic growth for 2019 is back to Obama era levels--it will come in somewhere around 2.3% +/- 0.2 (i'm basing this on the average monthly growth in jobs above, with 2019 much lower than 2018). If the economy continues to grow at this rate, it puts things in a sweet spot, where employment grows without putting upward pressure on wages, and it the economy will probably muddle along the entire year like that. If Trump and China come to a more significant agreement and manufacturing recovers, then growth will be higher and it could set the FED back on its interest rate increase path, which is ultimately the cause of recessions. For market players, that's what you want to watch out for--at the first whiff the FED will reverse course (raise rates again) is when you should get defensive. Cheers.
keepthefaith Posted January 11, 2020 Posted January 11, 2020 2 hours ago, TPS said: There really is no other comparative period for this. The reason I predicted (back in January 2018) a recession in 2020 was because I thought the stimulus from the tax cuts and spending increases would cause the economy to accelerate, leading to inflationary pressures, causing the FED to raise interest rates faster than planned (the FED raising its short term rate is the cause of the inverted yield curve that has preceded the last 5-6 recessions). However, the relationship that I (and the FED) relied on has changed....AGAIN. The relationship between unemployment and inflation (the Phillips Curve) has changed. The FED uses the concept of NAIRU, the rate of unemployment it believes will trigger inflationary pressures from wage gains) to guide its interest rate policy. In the mid 1990s, NAIRU was believed to be about 6%, and Greenspan argued it had decreased due to technology, so the FED held steady on rates and allowed the economy to expand, not raising them until mid 1999--hence the long Clinton expansion. Based on that experience, they adopted a new estimate for NAIRU of 4.5%. The FED started raising rates when unemployment hit 5% back in December of 2015 because it thought inflationary pressures would start to build. However, inflation remained subdued, even as unemployment dipped below 4% in early 2018. The FED was struggling to explain things, and some of the doves were starting to argue they should hold steady on rates until inflationary pressure could actually be observed. Then Trump's trade war started impacting manufacturing last year, so they started to lower rates again. So currently no one at the FED really knows what the value of NAIRU is, so they have taken a wait and see approach. As I've stated several times, employment growth under Trump hasn't been much different than the previous several years under Obama. I've posted these before, the average monthly job gains by year for the past 6 years: 2014 251K 2015 227K 2016 193K 2017 179K 2018 223K 2019 177K Trump's job gains have not been extraordinary, and neither has RGDP growth. The real issue is why hasn't the low unemployment rate of 3.5% caused an acceleration in wages leading to higher inflationary pressures? I'm in the camp that believes workers' bargaining power is non-existent because of things like globalization, the decline in unionization, non-compete clauses, and economic concentration (monopolies) which give large corporations "monopsony" power in bargaining with workers. While we have seen some uptick in wage gains, they are not enough to cause inflation to exceed the FED's 2% target. Eventually, one would think, we would have to see a trigger point, with businesses having to raise wages to attract even moderately skilled workers. Interesting times. Prognosticating, economic growth for 2019 is back to Obama era levels--it will come in somewhere around 2.3% +/- 0.2 (i'm basing this on the average monthly growth in jobs above, with 2019 much lower than 2018). If the economy continues to grow at this rate, it puts things in a sweet spot, where employment grows without putting upward pressure on wages, and it the economy will probably muddle along the entire year like that. If Trump and China come to a more significant agreement and manufacturing recovers, then growth will be higher and it could set the FED back on its interest rate increase path, which is ultimately the cause of recessions. For market players, that's what you want to watch out for--at the first whiff the FED will reverse course (raise rates again) is when you should get defensive. Cheers. While GDP increases have been modest, what's most impressive to me is the length of the expansion that began under Obama. As you've pointed out it's really a continuation of an economic sugar high (or cocaine) fueled by recent tax cuts, very low interest rates and continuous huge deficit spending. The latter which I still contend will bite us very hard some day. Deficit spending has become a huge pillar of our economy, an addiction.
TPS Posted January 11, 2020 Posted January 11, 2020 45 minutes ago, keepthefaith said: While GDP increases have been modest, what's most impressive to me is the length of the expansion that began under Obama. As you've pointed out it's really a continuation of an economic sugar high (or cocaine) fueled by recent tax cuts, very low interest rates and continuous huge deficit spending. The latter which I still contend will bite us very hard some day. Deficit spending has become a huge pillar of our economy, an addiction. Most important is the policy reversal of the FED which allows the expansion to continue. Yeah faith, one of these days those deficits...?
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted January 14, 2020 Posted January 14, 2020 Deroy Murdock: Poor out-performing rich in this key measure under Trump By Matt London | Fox News Published 30 mins ago The mantra among Democrats running for president in 2020 is that President Trump's economic policy has hurt people who are struggling to get ahead. That cannot be further from the truth, Fox News contributor Deroy Murdock said. "The message from left has been that the rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer. You hear that all the time, when in fact, the rich are getting richer, but the poor are getting richer as well," Murdock said on Fox Nation's "After the Show Show." "And they're getting richer more quickly than the rich are getting richer." "If you look on the basis of race, whites up 3.5 percent, non-whites up 4.3 percent, so non-whites doing better. You never hear that sort of thing," he continued. "Why is this?" asked "Fox & Friends" co-host Ainsley Earhardt. "What's making the numbers increase?" https://www.foxnews.com/media/deroy-murdock-non-whites-wages
GG Posted January 14, 2020 Author Posted January 14, 2020 Bad news for Bill Maher - 4Q earnings are starting to come in. 2
bbb Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 12 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said: Deroy Murdock: Poor out-performing rich in this key measure under Trump By Matt London | Fox News Published 30 mins ago The mantra among Democrats running for president in 2020 is that President Trump's economic policy has hurt people who are struggling to get ahead. That cannot be further from the truth, Fox News contributor Deroy Murdock said. "The message from left has been that the rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer. You hear that all the time, when in fact, the rich are getting richer, but the poor are getting richer as well," Murdock said on Fox Nation's "After the Show Show." "And they're getting richer more quickly than the rich are getting richer." "If you look on the basis of race, whites up 3.5 percent, non-whites up 4.3 percent, so non-whites doing better. You never hear that sort of thing," he continued. "Why is this?" asked "Fox & Friends" co-host Ainsley Earhardt. "What's making the numbers increase?" https://www.foxnews.com/media/deroy-murdock-non-whites-wages All you ever hear are jokes about "trickle down" 1
John Adams Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 (edited) If the China issues get addressed for real, will the government do something worthy with all this money? Great times to be alive. 3 hours ago, bbb said: All you ever hear are jokes about "trickle down" The Fox article is just self promo junk but forgive AFLguy his lemmingness, the national review article it is based on is a good one. Edited January 15, 2020 by John Adams
Foxx Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 https://twitter.com/LizRNC/status/1217489657266606080 3 1 1
Foxx Posted January 15, 2020 Posted January 15, 2020 (edited) oh boy... the Dems are gonna ***** a brick when this happens. 'Tax Cuts 2.0' will be rolled out during Trump's 2020 campaign, his top economic adviser says ... The Trump administration will roll out another tax-cut plan during the 2020 campaign, the president's top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said in a CNBC interview on Wednesday. Kudlow, the National Economic Council director, said he'd been spearheading the planning so far. "I am still running a process of Tax Cuts 2.0," Kudlow said. "We're many months away. It'll come out sometime later during the campaign." ... Edited January 15, 2020 by Foxx 3
Chef Jim Posted January 16, 2020 Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/14/2020 at 10:26 AM, OldTimeAFLGuy said: Deroy Murdock: Poor out-performing rich in this key measure under Trump By Matt London | Fox News Published 30 mins ago The mantra among Democrats running for president in 2020 is that President Trump's economic policy has hurt people who are struggling to get ahead. That cannot be further from the truth, Fox News contributor Deroy Murdock said. "The message from left has been that the rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer. You hear that all the time, when in fact, the rich are getting richer, but the poor are getting richer as well," Murdock said on Fox Nation's "After the Show Show." "And they're getting richer more quickly than the rich are getting richer." "If you look on the basis of race, whites up 3.5 percent, non-whites up 4.3 percent, so non-whites doing better. You never hear that sort of thing," he continued. "Why is this?" asked "Fox & Friends" co-host Ainsley Earhardt. "What's making the numbers increase?" https://www.foxnews.com/media/deroy-murdock-non-whites-wages Well I think it's hard to say the poor are getting richer. They're just becoming less poor.
TH3 Posted January 16, 2020 Posted January 16, 2020 On 1/10/2020 at 1:59 PM, Buffalo_Gal said: Please tell me you understand how stupid this chart it.... 5 hours ago, Foxx said: https://twitter.com/LizRNC/status/1217489657266606080 Please tell me you actually understand more than clip and post...
Chef Jim Posted January 16, 2020 Posted January 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, TH3 said: Please tell me you actually understand more than clip and post... Please tell my you actually understand the economy is doing very well may well only get better and this is one of the rare occasions the President actually has something to do with it. 2 1 1
KRC Posted January 16, 2020 Posted January 16, 2020 17 hours ago, Foxx said: oh boy... the Dems are gonna ***** a brick when this happens. 'Tax Cuts 2.0' will be rolled out during Trump's 2020 campaign, his top economic adviser says ... The Trump administration will roll out another tax-cut plan during the 2020 campaign, the president's top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said in a CNBC interview on Wednesday. Kudlow, the National Economic Council director, said he'd been spearheading the planning so far. "I am still running a process of Tax Cuts 2.0," Kudlow said. "We're many months away. It'll come out sometime later during the campaign." ... Tax cuts (Trump) versus tax increases (Dems). Hmmm...Hard to choose which way to go here. 3 1
B-Man Posted January 17, 2020 Posted January 17, 2020 WE HAD BEEN ASSURED WE WERE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER DEPRESSION: Solid U.S. Retail Sales Confirm Consumer Strength. To be fair, we’ve been told that every month since November, 2016. It’s like nobody’s listening. . 2 1
Foxx Posted January 17, 2020 Posted January 17, 2020 (edited) it's just me but ... i would have went with, 'grandstanding idiot'. ? https://twitter.com/Tom_Blersch/status/1217908460957962241 Edited January 17, 2020 by Foxx 2 2 1
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