The Trump Economy

[GG]

3 minutes ago, TPS said:

I'm sure you're right, there are no signs of trouble in ANY segment of the credit markets. Nothing to see here...

 

There's always a sign of trouble somewhere.  The real question are there any signs of trouble that could lead to a systemic collapse?  At this point, despite an influx of more CCC borrowers and more risky deals in US corporate debt, the default rates are still at all time lows and are not ticking up yet to sound the alarms.   Moodys is saying that when the defaults come, the recoveries will be worse.  But they're not saying that the defaults are rising at this moment.  Big distinction. 

[TPS]

38 minutes ago, GG said:

 

There's always a sign of trouble somewhere.  The real question are there any signs of trouble that could lead to a systemic collapse?  At this point, despite an influx of more CCC borrowers and more risky deals in US corporate debt, the default rates are still at all time lows and are not ticking up yet to sound the alarms.   Moodys is saying that when the defaults come, the recoveries will be worse.  But they're not saying that the defaults are rising at this moment.  Big distinction. 

 

No one said anything about a systemic collapse. I’m not sure where you get your info from, according to this, default rates on junk are not at historic lows: 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/AB809B54-C03D-11E9-A93B-DAD0C8101BC5

 

“Defaults on bonds issued by debt-laden U.S. companies with speculative-grade ratings are on pace to reach a new high this year for the post 2008 crisis era, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.”

 

i agree there doesn’t appear to be a systemic issue, but there are stresses in some credit markets. 

Edited November 3, 2019 by TPS

[GG]

6 hours ago, TPS said:

 

No one said anything about a systemic collapse. I’m not sure where you get your info from, according to this, default rates on junk are not at historic lows: 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/AB809B54-C03D-11E9-A93B-DAD0C8101BC5

 

“Defaults on bonds issued by debt-laden U.S. companies with speculative-grade ratings are on pace to reach a new high this year for the post 2008 crisis era, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.”

 

i agree there doesn’t appear to be a systemic issue, but there are stresses in some credit markets. 

 

Again that's a misleading statistic because the massive PG&E bankruptcy sways the results with its $18 billion debt balance.  The more appropriate statistic to watch is the number of defaults, which still trail the crisis figures and are also well below the energy crisis of 2013.

 

Carry on.

[TPS]

21 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Again that's a misleading statistic because the massive PG&E bankruptcy sways the results with its $18 billion debt balance.  The more appropriate statistic to watch is the number of defaults, which still trail the crisis figures and are also well below the energy crisis of 2013.

 

Carry on.

So, are you now walking back your statement that "the default rates are still at all time lows and are not ticking up yet"?

According to this Barron's article:

 https://www.barrons.com/articles/more-companies-have-defaulted-in-2019-than-all-of-2018-51570443300

Quote

 

Only 82 global companies defaulted last year, according to S&P Ratings.

What’s new. Companies haven’t fared quite as well this year. Globally, 85 companies have failed to make bond payments during the first nine months of 2019, according to S&P Ratings. If defaults continue at this pace, that means about 113 companies will miss debt payments this year, a 38% increase.

 

So, which is it? Are we at all time lows still or not?

[GG]

According to Moody's, the global default rate for spec grade companies as of the end of September was 2.4%, the same as it was in December 2018.  FWIW, the default rate was in the mid-high 4% throughout 2016, but started ticking down since November 2016.   What happened?

 

BTW, the historic default rate in non-crisis periods is about 3%.

 

PS - and for the concerns about the healthier end of the bond spectrum?

 

Quote

 

It was a popular narrative in the capital markets in 2018. The swarm of corporate bonds with the lowest investment-grade rating supposedly were on the precipice of a descent into the high-yield level—the polite term for junk—as soon as the inevitable economic slowdown hit. In that event, these erstwhile members of the respectable investment-grade world would be punished with a major decline in their securities prices and a concomitant rise in their yields.

But that was so last year. What’s happened in 2019 has been a big rally in BBB corporates, resulting in falling yields and strong total returns. Indeed, BBB bonds comprise the biggest portion of the corporate bond market, accounting for 58.2% of the $4 trillion of investment-grade debt outstanding as of Sept. 30, according to a report from Fitch Ratings. That’s actually down a touch from its peak of 58.8% in 2018.

 

 

Edited November 4, 2019 by GG

[TPS]

 

You went from stating "none of the data that I've seen supports signs of troubles in any segment of the credit markets."  

To "There's always a sign of trouble somewhere." 

Where we agree is the lack of any systemic risk.  However, There are some strains starting to show at the very bottom of the market, which is why their spread is rising relative to other risk classes (as one of the articles I posted noted).    High-yield default rates are rising and projected to rise further, and downgrades are rising relative to upgrades, according to Moody's as well.... 

[GG]

4 hours ago, TPS said:

 

You went from stating "none of the data that I've seen supports signs of troubles in any segment of the credit markets."  

To "There's always a sign of trouble somewhere." 

Where we agree is the lack of any systemic risk.  However, There are some strains starting to show at the very bottom of the market, which is why their spread is rising relative to other risk classes (as one of the articles I posted noted).    High-yield default rates are rising and projected to rise further, and downgrades are rising relative to upgrades, according to Moody's as well.... 

 

The strains at the bottom end are noticeable because it's the first time companies like that are picked up in the indices.  It's hard to compare their performance now vs past cycles because the distressed-oriented CLOs weren't that abundant.   Downgrades are rising, but are far below historic averages and are still nowhere near the distress in energy sectors in 2013.

 

All this talk still ignores the trajectory of this economy to end up in a recession at some point in 2018-2019 had the previous economic policies persisted.

[TPS]

54 minutes ago, GG said:

 

The strains at the bottom end are noticeable because it's the first time companies like that are picked up in the indices.  It's hard to compare their performance now vs past cycles because the distressed-oriented CLOs weren't that abundant.   Downgrades are rising, but are far below historic averages and are still nowhere near the distress in energy sectors in 2013.

 

All this talk still ignores the trajectory of this economy to end up in a recession at some point in 2018-2019 had the previous economic policies persisted.

I don't know many people who were calling for a recession 3 years ago. 

 

Since the 1970s, recessions have mainly been caused by the Fed raising short rates (the source of the inverted yield curve and its relation to recessions).  I predicted a recession to hit in 2019-20 because I thought Trump's fiscal stimulus would cause the Fed to raise rates faster than planned.  However, his trade war did more damage than Fed rate increases, causing the Fed to reverse policy. 

 

As I see it, we're currently in a tug-of-war between the recession in manufacturing vs all of the service jobs being created from an aging population and consumer spending from employment growth.  If Trump can win a real deal with China--not some token stuff to give him a bone to brag about, then the expansion will continue to muddle along at the 2% pace; otherwise, the manufacturing recession is gaining traction....which will spill over onto household consumption and drag the economy lower and possible recession.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

'Losing two farms a day': Wisconsin is facing a serious dairy crisis

 

According to NPR, nearly 10% of Wisconsin dairy farmers may go out of business in 2019. And Wisconsin has seen an increase in suicide rates over the last few years. According to the Wisconsin State Journal, experts are attributing many of those deaths to farmers facing economic challenges.

“You look at the weather, you look at the crops you can’t get off the field, you look at the bills you can’t pay,” Patty Edelburg, vice president of the National Farmers Union, told Yahoo Finance. “Bankruptcies are up.

 

Wisconsin is attributed as the No. 1 bankruptcy in the nation right now, when it comes to dairy farmers. That number is up, I think, 24% from last year already. We’re losing two farms a day.”

[B-Man]

 

 

 

Small business ‘optimism’ at record high, up 160% under Trump.

 

 

 

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[row_33]

Just now, B-Man said:

 

 

 

Small business ‘optimism’ at record high, up 160% under Trump.

 

 

 

.

 

amazing how this can happen instantly for a real President who loves big business.

 

for a change...

 

 

[Tiberius]

19 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

'Losing two farms a day': Wisconsin is facing a serious dairy crisis

 

According to NPR, nearly 10% of Wisconsin dairy farmers may go out of business in 2019. And Wisconsin has seen an increase in suicide rates over the last few years. According to the Wisconsin State Journal, experts are attributing many of those deaths to farmers facing economic challenges.

“You look at the weather, you look at the crops you can’t get off the field, you look at the bills you can’t pay,” Patty Edelburg, vice president of the National Farmers Union, told Yahoo Finance. “Bankruptcies are up.

 

Wisconsin is attributed as the No. 1 bankruptcy in the nation right now, when it comes to dairy farmers. That number is up, I think, 24% from last year already. We’re losing two farms a day.”

Losing markets overseas was a huge Trump unforced error. Not that it's the whole problem but why a president would create problems he doesn't need to shows Trump incompetence 

[dpberr]

26 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:

 

'Losing two farms a day': Wisconsin is facing a serious dairy crisis

 

According to NPR, nearly 10% of Wisconsin dairy farmers may go out of business in 2019. And Wisconsin has seen an increase in suicide rates over the last few years. According to the Wisconsin State Journal, experts are attributing many of those deaths to farmers facing economic challenges.

“You look at the weather, you look at the crops you can’t get off the field, you look at the bills you can’t pay,” Patty Edelburg, vice president of the National Farmers Union, told Yahoo Finance. “Bankruptcies are up.

 

Wisconsin is attributed as the No. 1 bankruptcy in the nation right now, when it comes to dairy farmers. That number is up, I think, 24% from last year already. We’re losing two farms a day.”

 

I don't think this is Trump's fault.  The dairy economy is in significant decline for one reason - people don't drink and eat as much dairy as they used to and companies are using less dairy in products (that's why most ice cream is now...a dairy dessert)  The price of milk in the US peaked in 2014 and only 15% or so is exported outside the continental 48.  

 

If the US government wasn't one of Big Dairy's biggest customers, the market would have cratered years ago.  

 

The other factor to consider is dairy farming was a sector of farming where the family farms were able to hold on - when demand was higher.  As the corporations have acquired the struggling family farms, it's hard to beat them on price.  

[row_33]

they found farmers who were willing to complain for the news media?

 

[TPS]

41 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

 

Small business ‘optimism’ at record high, up 160% under Trump.

 

 

 

.

Hmmm...The Washington Examiner needs to hire people with better math skills, or maybe it's civics?

The guy used 2015Q4 for Obama's last year.  I'm pretty sure Obama was president all of 2016....

 

Using the correct number of 80 for 2016Q4, Trump still boosts the index by 78%. 

 

More fun with numbers (and time periods), the index increased 700% under Obama...Yes, it's true...

[3rdnlng]

3 minutes ago, TPS said:

Hmmm...The Washington Examiner needs to hire people with better math skills, or maybe it's civics?

The guy used 2015Q4 for Obama's last year.  I'm pretty sure Obama was president all of 2016....

 

Using the correct number of 80 for 2016Q4, Trump still boosts the index by 78%. 

 

More fun with numbers (and time periods), the index increased 700% under Obama...Yes, it's true...

I see what you did there. Fortunately I have 1000 times the money in my pocket today than I had yesterday. Unfortunately I only had a penny yesterday.

[B-Man]

 

 

DON’T WORRY, THE DEMOCRATS HAVE A PLAN TO FIX THIS:  

Trump economy is really experiencing a middle-class boom — this data doesn’t lie.

 

 

 

.

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, B-Man said:

 

 

DON’T WORRY, THE DEMOCRATS HAVE A PLAN TO FIX THIS:  

Trump economy is really experiencing a middle-class boom — this data doesn’t lie.

 

 

 

.

 

Using Median numbers is highly misleading. When factoring in inflation the real gain for workers under the Trump economy has been 1.1% compared to the average of 1% under Obama from 2011 to 2016 when the Recession ended. I would also challenge that if you took the temperature of the income gains, stock market performance, and GDP gains in 2006 under George W Bush he would have looked pretty dam good under those measures. But the cost of unfunded tax cuts and deregulation (along with a new factor low interest rates in positive economic times) always come with a bust cycle that is harsh. And because interest rates are so low (and only going lower) when the bust comes there is no soft cushion of lowering rates to help ease the bottoming out. They are having to lower rates now just to get above 2% GDP growth. QE and low rates might not solve the next very painful Recession. How many times does the trickle down and deregulation bubble have to burst for people to not cheer as the bubble is at or near its highest point? 

 

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/world/americas/2019-10-31-trumps-greatest-economy-doesnt-mean-more-pay-for-workers/

[billsfan89]

On 10/31/2019 at 8:09 AM, SoCal Deek said:

And continued economic growth bothers you why exactly?

 

I don't think anyone is bothered by continued economic growth. But in 2006 someone could have been saying that the economy is being propped up by deficit spending mainly used to fund a war and tax cuts for the wealthy, deregulation in various sectors and a bubble in the housing market. Would your retort to them have been why does growth bother you? 

 

Someone in 2006 would have been right to say the growth is a positive but what is causing it isn't going to last. Trump's economic growth was promised to be 3% and higher for multiple years. The best he got to was 2.9% (a high Obama reached) and that was with lower than usual (for positive GDP growth times) interest rates, huge deficit spending, and massive deregulation. 

 

There are huge bubbles in consumer credit, auto loans, student debt and various other credit cycles that aren't sustainable and unlike 2008 the interest rates are being held low which means that the stimulative effect of lowering rates will not be in the feds tool box come a possible recession. We have seen this script play out in 2008. Deregulation and sugar high tax cut deficit driven growth will always come with a big crash. 

 

When you don't have demand increases to justify expanding business your growth will be based on buyback and dividend increases funded by tax cuts. But once the tax burden gets normalized there is no room to grow. With the money from Trump's tax cuts and the increase to the military budget alone the US could have forgiven student debt, financed public college for all, and partially funded a infrastructure overhaul bill. All things that would have had a true stimulative long sustained impact on the economy. Instead we just juiced the stock market for a couple of years. 

[Deranged Rhino]