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Posted
2 hours ago, ALF said:

Ford debt has been downgraded to junk

 

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/10/business/ford-downgrade-junk/index.html

 

hmmm

  The automotive industry has had more downs than ups over its history and seldom has there been a tie to who was sitting in the White House.  The business model has been terrible as of late with leasing intended to reach those who would have never been in a position to acquire a new vehicle even if on a temporary basis.  Now the auto builders are seeing a build up of lease returns that need to be sold so that puts pressure on new vehicle sales.

Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, ALF said:

Ford debt has been downgraded to junk

 

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/10/business/ford-downgrade-junk/index.html

 

hmmm

Well, Ford has had 4+ straight years of increasing revenue but decreased earnings recently due mostly to overseas losses and some materials cost increases.   They cut a lot of heads this year, slashed overseas workforces and facilities, re-organized the engineering group in Dearborn and they have a lot of new vehicles just or soon to be introduced which include the 2020 Explorer and Escape and Transit van.  The 2019 Ranger pickup is selling extremely well.  2021 they will begin to sell the new Bronco and there are others including more hybrids and electrics coming.  Moody's IMO is late to expressing concern.  Ford's made a ton of changes which should help financially next year.  The auto industry though will see declining sales overall if/when the economy flattens out or recesses. 

Edited by keepthefaith
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Posted (edited)

is today the 27,000 day on the DJIA?

 

still waiting for the big boys to take their slice for their enjoyment during this incredible Trumpian growth.

 

usually done every 5-6 years, union pension funds are never on top of this

 

put it in cash if you can't withstand the plunge....  thank me later

Edited by row_33
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

It's not the tax cuts. It's the spending

  

Who is spending ?  All of Congress first 2 years ( R ) and WH all.  

 

The US deficit topped $1 trillion. The year's not even over yet

 

Washington (CNN Business)The US budget deficit widened to $1.067 trillion for the first 11 months of the fiscal year, an increase of 19% over this time last year, the Treasury Department reported Thursday.

 

The current shortfall exceeds the full-year deficit for fiscal 2018, which was $898 billion.


President Donald Trump, who promised during the 2016 campaign to eliminate the federal debt, has instead overseen a dramatic increase in deficits.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/12/business/us-federal-deficit-august/index.html

 

Did Trump ever veto a budget? 

Edited by ALF
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ALF said:

  

Who is spending ?  All of Congress first 2 years ( R ) and WH all.  

 

The US deficit topped $1 trillion. The year's not even over yet

 

Washington (CNN Business)The US budget deficit widened to $1.067 trillion for the first 11 months of the fiscal year, an increase of 19% over this time last year, the Treasury Department reported Thursday.

 

The current shortfall exceeds the full-year deficit for fiscal 2018, which was $898 billion.


President Donald Trump, who promised during the 2016 campaign to eliminate the federal debt, has instead overseen a dramatic increase in deficits.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/12/business/us-federal-deficit-august/index.html

 

Did Trump ever veto a budget? 

 

The US is going to be in major trouble them the economy inevitably slows down and revenues fall.

Edited by jrober38
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Posted
33 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

The US is going to be in major trouble them the economy inevitably slows down and revenues fall.

 

Yes, I've been saying this.  Spending will continue to rise, revenues fall some during an economic pullback and then all of the sudden there will be re-newed concern for debt which erodes confidence among consumers, the financial markets and debt holders present and future. 

Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, keepthefaith said:

 

Yes, I've been saying this.  Spending will continue to rise, revenues fall some during an economic pullback and then all of the sudden there will be re-newed concern for debt which erodes confidence among consumers, the financial markets and debt holders present and future. 

 

Exactly.

 

This seems to be setting things up for another disaster. If the deficit is currently $1.1 trillion, in a recession, unless spending is drastically cut (which would further reduce GPD growth), the deficit could balloon to $1.4, maybe $1.5 trillion without factoring in any stimulus. 

 

In my estimation, the Fed isn't being aggressive reducing interest rates, because if they do that now and the economy falls into a recession in a couple years, they'll have zero tool available to them to stimulate the economy when the time comes. 

 

What Trump has done with the economy has been extremely reckless. Ballooning the deficit, and ramping up military spending at a time when the US isn't at war with anyone while reducing taxes. 

 

When the economy is great, countries should get their house in order, and start paying off their debt. The US has done the exact opposite under Trump.

 

It's like they just had their best year ever due to performance related bonuses at their job, and instead of saving money, they moved into the house they previously couldn't afford and leased a couple cars they didn't need. When the business cycle changes, and revenues fall, the US will be in a terrible situation where they'll have to slash spending, or raise taxes, at a time that it would further damage the economy. 

 

There's a reason 30 year treasuries have dipped below the 2 year multiple times over the past couple months. The smart money knows what's going to happen. 

Edited by jrober38
Posted
4 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

During a trade war is a bad time for swine fever to make China's pork prices go haywire. One less lever for them to pull. 

 

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