The Trump Economy

[TPS]

27 minutes ago, GG said:

 

I admit that I was wrong ... when I referenced 3% as the wishful growth rate.   Old age is getting the better of me.   

 

As I reflect now, the discussions were about 2% growth rates and 8% unemployment rates being the "new normal"  Kind of fun going back into the memory banks to hear the explanations of how we should get used to European-style economies of low growth and high unemployment.  Because that's what enlightened countries do. 

 

This was a doozy

 

 

Cool. Let me know who wins this argument, though I’m not sure who you’re arguing with now...

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

3 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

i will indulge some of your other stuff, but to say the economic numbers are an influence campaign is pure nuttiness...they are economic data. Should it not be reported? Are you saying best to stick your head in the sand and just hope for the best? 

 

Your boy Donald Trump himself is acknowledging some of the indicators and talked openly about levers he is considering cause the R word is a possibiity...is he part of the campaign designed to sow fear, divison, and to "get Trump"???????

 

 

I heard no such criticism when the numbers were good, but now that we are seeing some numbers weaken it is a media driven event??

 

Dude, cmon on..you gonna die on the hill that Economic numbers are a media creation designed to "get Trump"

....and the putz boy, bloviating Maher is hoping for a recession to oust Trump re-election....as if THAT schmuck would be affected.......is that what we've come to?......how pathetic....perfect cast ala Maher, Griffin & Handler for a "Three's Company" remake.....ratings LOWER than CNN?...is THAT possible?.....

[TPS]

9 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

A few pages back I posted how well retail did in July (link to nbc I "think"), and that the recession was canceled. And yet the "talking point" of  recession, recession, recession which does not exist currently, is being dialed-up.  Why?

Retail and consumer goods is so much of the US market (we like to consume *****) that if consumer confidence goes down, a recession can be triggered. There was a reason W told people to go out and shop after 9/11. It sounded trite, but it was meant to avert an economic meltdown.  (And for the record, I couldn't stand W. Doesn't mean he was wrong.)
 

I remember your post because I responded to it, and I think it explains the divergence of opinion here. While consumption and retail numbers look good, manufacturing does not. The reason the R word has been bandied about in the business press is because manufacturing may well indeed be in a recession (formally defined as 2 consecutive quarters of declining growth) because of Trump's trade war. However, consumption spending is currently robust enough to keep overall GDP positive. 

 

It is the business of the business media to talk about these things, and they usually don't have an agenda. That said, it is also quite possible that the MSM is trumpeting up the recent recession talk in the business press for political purposes. Certainly MSNBC would do this. 

 

 However, the recent uptick in recession talk IS a consequence of real weakness in the economy, so it's an extreme view to take to blame the media if the manufacturing recession spreads to a more general one. Besides, don't more people watch Fox than any other MSM media?

 

 

 

 

[plenzmd1]

12 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

If you don't see the spin there's nothing I can do for you my friend.  

https://www.mrctv.org/videos/foxs-charles-payne-slams-medias-deliberate-attempt-stoke-recession-fears

 

(And both sides spin, never once have I said anything but that)

that is a ridiculous clip, and i do mean ridiculous. 

 

1) Fox and Friends..cmon DR be like me citing TBD as a bastion of Objectivity when it comes to the Pats. If that's the best ya got, case closed

2) Bond yields here  .https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/....only one number but you tying up money for 10 years to get same return as 2 year?

3) consumer confidence and spending was through the roof in 2007 too.....just remember you can never go broke fading the opinion of the public on just about anything

4) you know who else was all in on the 2007 economy..the guy who is the top Economic advisor in all the land right now

https://www.nationalreview.com/kudlows-money-politics/recession-debate-over-larry-kudlow/

Quote

The recession debate is over. It’s not gonna happen. Time to move on.

At a bare minimum, we are looking at Goldilocks 2.0. (And that’s a minimum). The Bush boom is alive and well. It’s finishing up its sixth splendid year with many more years to come.

5 )having said that, lets hope it stays high( and thank god we hold Target) But i ain't gonna ignore warning signs that maybe CEOs are a bit ahead of the public on economic conditions

6) we are not in a recession, what people fear is the some of the underlying numbers are not great and that is in a time where govt spending and the deficit ate exploding, usually not two things associated with a great economy. The numbers are the numbers..i just fail to understand how numbers can be biased. 

7) If you believe Trump truly understand the economy and has your best interests at heart, than you have to accept the notion that he is also worried about some key economic indicators right now .He freely admitted this week his trade policies could lead to a recession, and that the administration has discussed payroll tax cuts...so is he nuts too and just leading a charge of pessimism?

 

 

On this debate it is truly shocking to see the Cult of Trump come to the forefront. Economic numbers do not lie. Deficit, GDP, Yield Curves, consumer spending, Capital Investment, inventories, etc are real numbers..plain and simple. Some of them are positive now, some are negative. But in the Cult of Trump..all positive numbers can be attributed to Trump and his mastery of the economy, all negative numbers are a media hoax designed to stone the chosen one.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 23, 2019 by plenzmd1

[Benjamin Franklin]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

that is a ridiculous clip, and i do mean ridiculous. 

 

1) Fox and Friends..cmon DR be like me citing TBD as a bastion of Objectivity when it comes to the Pats. If that's the best ya got, case closed

2) Bond yields here  .https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/....only one number but you tying up money for 10 years to get same return as 2 year?

3) consumer confidence and spending was through the roof in 2007 too.....just remember you can never go broke fading the opinion of the public on just about anything

4) you know who else was all in on the 2007 economy..the guy who is the top Economic advisor in all the land right now

https://www.nationalreview.com/kudlows-money-politics/recession-debate-over-larry-kudlow/

5 )having said that, lets hope it stays high( and thank god we hold Target) But i ain't gonna ignore warning signs that maybe CEOs are a bit ahead of the public on economic conditions

6) we are not in a recession, what people fear is the some of the underlying numbers are not great and that is in a time where govt spending and the deficit ate exploding, usually not two things associated with a great economy. The numbers are the numbers..i just fail to understand how numbers can be biased. 

7) If you believe Trump truly understand the economy and has your best interests at heart, than you have to accept the notion that he is also worried about some key economic indicators right now .He freely admitted this week his trade policies could lead to a recession, and that the administration has discussed payroll tax cuts...so is he nuts too and just leading a charge of pessimism?

 

 

On this debate it is truly shocking to see the Cult of Trump come to the forefront. Economic numbers do not lie. Deficit, GDP, Yield Curves, consumer spending, Capital Investment, inventories, etc are real numbers..plain and simple. Some of them are positive now, some are negative. But in the Cult of Trump..all positive numbers can be attributed to Trump and his mastery of the economy, all negative numbers are a media hoax designed to stone the chosen one.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Everything is part of the conspiracy. Duh.  

 

This is his world that he posts about incessantly on a football message board. 

[Buffalo_Gal]

5 hours ago, TPS said:

I remember your post because I responded to it, and I think it explains the divergence of opinion here. While consumption and retail numbers look good, manufacturing does not. The reason the R word has been bandied about in the business press is because manufacturing may well indeed be in a recession (formally defined as 2 consecutive quarters of declining growth) because of Trump's trade war. However, consumption spending is currently robust enough to keep overall GDP positive. 

 

It is the business of the business media to talk about these things, and they usually don't have an agenda. That said, it is also quite possible that the MSM is trumpeting up the recent recession talk in the business press for political purposes. Certainly MSNBC would do this. 

 

 However, the recent uptick in recession talk IS a consequence of real weakness in the economy, so it's an extreme view to take to blame the media if the manufacturing recession spreads to a more general one. Besides, don't more people watch Fox than any other MSM media?

 

 

 

 

Anecdotal... so my husband was telling me yesterday that the WSJ ran a story that the sky is falling on the economy because RV sales are down and Elkhart Indiana (the RV capital of the world) claimed numbers are down. Down from what? Fox business had the same stats, and said they showed no anomalies (seasonal adjustments). 

Why such different takes on the same numbers?

And before anyone says Fox is "pro-Trump" recall that in the first two years of the Trump administration Fox wrote negative stories against the administration over 50% of the time (55% against, 45% for ).  Those exact numbers are buried in the media thread here for anyone that wants to dig them out.  I am simply pointing out a news agency that is writing negative stories against the administration more than half the time, is considered "pro".  That is what crazy-times we live in with the MSM. (Other stations and news agencies were over 90% negative.) I used "first two years" because that was the time frame the studies were done. 


 

[TPS]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Anecdotal... so my husband was telling me yesterday that the WSJ ran a story that the sky is falling on the economy because RV sales are down and Elkhart Indiana (the RV capital of the world) claimed numbers are down. Down from what? Fox business had the same stats, and said they showed no anomalies (seasonal adjustments). 

Why such different takes on the same numbers?

And before anyone says Fox is "pro-Trump" recall that in the first two years of the Trump administration Fox wrote negative stories against the administration over 50% of the time (55% against, 45% for ).  Those exact numbers are buried in the media thread here for anyone that wants to dig them out.  I am simply pointing out a news agency that is writing negative stories against the administration more than half the time, is considered "pro".  That is what crazy-times we live in with the MSM. (Other stations and news agencies were over 90% negative.) I used "first two years" because that was the time frame the studies were done. 


 

Have you been paying attention to business data and global growth, or just consumption and retail sales?

There is a reason the R word has crept into the business press.  Any objective person would look at all of the signals, and this sector has pointed down since the start of the year.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-production

 

[ALF]

BREAKING
China to Raise Tariffs on $75 Billion in U.S. Goods

 

The State Council Tariff Commission in Beijing said it would impose extra tariffs of 5 percent or 10 percent on $75 billion worth of American goods. The new tariffs will take effect on Sept. 1 and on Dec. 15

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/23/business/china-tariffs-trump.html

[Tiberius]

16 minutes ago, ALF said:

BREAKING
China to Raise Tariffs on $75 Billion in U.S. Goods

 

The State Council Tariff Commission in Beijing said it would impose extra tariffs of 5 percent or 10 percent on $75 billion worth of American goods. The new tariffs will take effect on Sept. 1 and on Dec. 15

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/23/business/china-tariffs-trump.html

What will Tariff Man say about this? 

 

"Trade wars are easy to win!" 

[plenzmd1]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Anecdotal... so my husband was telling me yesterday that the WSJ ran a story that the sky is falling on the economy because RV sales are down and Elkhart Indiana (the RV capital of the world) claimed numbers are down. Down from what? Fox business had the same stats, and said they showed no anomalies (seasonal adjustments). 

Why such different takes on the same numbers?

And before anyone says Fox is "pro-Trump" recall that in the first two years of the Trump administration Fox wrote negative stories against the administration over 50% of the time (55% against, 45% for ).  Those exact numbers are buried in the media thread here for anyone that wants to dig them out.  I am simply pointing out a news agency that is writing negative stories against the administration more than half the time, is considered "pro".  That is what crazy-times we live in with the MSM. (Other stations and news agencies were over 90% negative.) I used "first two years" because that was the time frame the studies were done. 


 

so, now the WSJ is in on the "get  Trump" campaign? When the WSJ on May 8 2018 ran this report I did not hear any thing about bias..wonder why?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-future-of-americas-economy-looks-a-lot-like-elkhart-indiana-1522942393

 

But I guess its only biased when it reports numbers that do not fit the Trump narrative..(whatever that narrative may depending on the day of the week)

 

 

 

 

[Tiberius]

Trump is literally wrecking the best economy ever. This trade war lunacy is exactly why so many see this guy as totally unfit for office 

[3rdnlng]

1 hour ago, ALF said:

BREAKING
China to Raise Tariffs on $75 Billion in U.S. Goods

 

The State Council Tariff Commission in Beijing said it would impose extra tariffs of 5 percent or 10 percent on $75 billion worth of American goods. The new tariffs will take effect on Sept. 1 and on Dec. 15

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/23/business/china-tariffs-trump.html

Don't get your panties in a wad. The USA is in the catbird's seat and just needs to show patience. There is a reason we have a good economy while the rest of the world is struggling. We put tariffs on China and they put tariffs on our farm products and devalue their currency. We compensate our farmers and they sell their product to Canada or elsewhere and they sell it to China. A little inefficient but we can outlast China if we just stick to our guns. China's only hope is if they can outlast Trump and a democrat jellyfish gets elected.

[SoCal Deek]

7 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Trump is literally wrecking the best economy ever. This trade war lunacy is exactly why so many see this guy as totally unfit for office 

Turn off CNN once in a while. The so called Trade War has virtually zero impact on the US economy.

[B-Man]

African Countries Take Bold Step to Cancel Chinese Investment Project

https://www.theepochtimes.com/african-countries-take-bold-step-to-cancel-chinese-investment-projects_3038776.html

 

[GG]

32 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Turn off CNN once in a while. The so called Trade War has virtually zero impact on the US economy.

You would be incorrect. 

[Tiberius]

Unfit to hold office. Screwball idiot

 

Quote

President Trump escalated his attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whom Trump appointed, in a tweet that labeled Powell as an “enemy” in his ongoing trade war.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/trump-jay-powell-federal-reserve-enemy

[TakeYouToTasker]

LOL

 

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1164910401584291848?s=21

[row_33]

down 400, forget the Recession, worst Depression ever starting in 5 minutes

 

 

[Deranged Rhino]

4 minutes ago, TakeYouToTasker said:

LOL

 

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1164910401584291848?s=21

 

Tweet's gone... what was it?

[Doc Brown]

 

The Dow was actually going up because investors liked what they heard from the Fed until Trump's tweet storm.  This is the reason why the Fed was designed to be independent.