The Trump Economy

[plenzmd1]

4 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

That's not what I'm saying. What I'm saying is you're witnessing (yet another) influence campaign designed to sow fear, division, and to "get Trump".

 

When the recession hits, we can talk. Until then, the sudden turn to 11 in volume on this issue is tied directly to the media's failure to make Trump/Russia stick or Trump=Racist stick in the minds of voters. 

 

....Voters. Not readers. Not citizens. Their goal is not to inform or pursue truth. It's to control your mind. Stop letting them.  

i will indulge some of your other stuff, but to say the economic numbers are an influence campaign is pure nuttiness...they are economic data. Should it not be reported? Are you saying best to stick your head in the sand and just hope for the best? 

 

Your boy Donald Trump himself is acknowledging some of the indicators and talked openly about levers he is considering cause the R word is a possibiity...is he part of the campaign designed to sow fear, divison, and to "get Trump"???????

 

 

I heard no such criticism when the numbers were good, but now that we are seeing some numbers weaken it is a media driven event??

 

Dude, cmon on..you gonna die on the hill that Economic numbers are a media creation designed to "get Trump"

[Deranged Rhino]

Just now, plenzmd1 said:

i will indulge some of your other stuff, but to say the economic numbers are an influence campaign is pure nuttiness...they are economic data. Should it not be reported? Are you saying best to stick your head in the sand and just hope for the best? 

 

Do you acknowledge that confidence in the economy is a key factor in its well being? 

If so, do you acknowledge the media has proven, time and time again, to be able to shape public opinion and confidence on any number of issues -- even when false?

 

There's reporting on numbers objectively, and then there's what's happening now on the establishment media feeds: pushing unnecessary panic and doom and gloom. The goal is not to inform or report, but to influence in order to get the result they want. 

 

1 minute ago, plenzmd1 said:

Your boy Donald Trump himself is acknowledging some of the indicators and talked openly about levers he is considering cause the R word is a possibiity...is he part of the campaign designed to sow fear, divison, and to "get Trump"???????

 

Recessions are always possible and usually cyclical. Acknowledging that isn't a problem. 

 

Hyping fear and drama over facts is. 

 

2 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

Dude, cmon on..you gonna die on the hill that Economic numbers are a media creation designed to "get Trump"

 

That's not the battle I'm fighting. It's not about the numbers, it's about the motivations of the messengers who have proven themselves to be allergic to truth for the past three years at the expense of partisanship. 

[Benjamin Franklin]

The media loves bad news?

 

No. 

 

Way. 

 

The Deep State thread needs your attention. 

[GG]

41 minutes ago, TPS said:

2017 = 2.4%

2018 = 2.9%

 

So when can we expect growth above 3%?

 

Speaking of context, the discussion about never hitting a 3% growth rate was to excuse away sub-2.0% growth following a major recession.   Can a dead cat bounce higher than 1.5%?

 

What's more impressive, hitting above 2.5% eight years into a recovery, or barely scraping 2.0% within 3 years of a recovery after pumping it with over $3 trillion in stimulous?

[plenzmd1]

4 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Do you acknowledge that confidence in the economy is a key factor in its well being? 

If so, do you acknowledge the media has proven, time and time again, to be able to shape public opinion and confidence on any number of issues -- even when false?

 

There's reporting on numbers objectively, and then there's what's happening now on the establishment media feeds: pushing unnecessary panic and doom and gloom. The goal is not to inform or report, but to influence in order to get the result they want. 

 

 

Recessions are always possible and usually cyclical. Acknowledging that isn't a problem. 

 

Hyping fear and drama over facts is. 

 

 

That's not the battle I'm fighting. It's not about the numbers, it's about the motivations of the messengers who have proven themselves to be allergic to truth for the past three years at the expense of partisanship. 

i said a few pages back..Trump talked a better game than Obama and it showed in the consumer confidence number..and consumer spending. But now that government  DATA, empirical data mind you,  is being reported , and those numbers are not great...that confidence is prolly going to be eroded. So be it. I am really shocked to hear you of all people saying the media should only tell the rosy part of stories, and not report the whole story.That is a switch for you.  

 

And how in holy hell is reporting numbers put out by government agencies bad? How come i did not hear you crying about the media when they praised the numbers last year? 

 

If you are after the messengers..Trump is messenger in chief! He is the one who said " we are looking at payroll tax reductions" and "trade stuff may cause a short term recession" ..should the media not report that?

[Buffalo_Gal]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

so, you wont answer my question? How are the economic numbers a media creation?

Wellllllllllllllllllllllllllll "unexpectedly" certainly comes to mind.  What the "experts" predict are almost always lower than the actual numbers that come in during the Trump years, and then "unexpectedly" better numbers show up.  And, when numbers are revised the last few years, the data is frequently revised upward (you can check this thread for those numbers - before and after - as people have been pretty good about posting them).

Contrast that with many of the Obama years when numbers would be revised downward (and buried on page 57, paragraph 23). 

A few pages back I posted how well retail did in July (link to nbc I "think"), and that the recession was canceled. And yet the "talking point" of  recession, recession, recession which does not exist currently, is being dialed-up.  Why?

Retail and consumer goods is so much of the US market (we like to consume *****) that if consumer confidence goes down, a recession can be triggered. There was a reason W told people to go out and shop after 9/11. It sounded trite, but it was meant to avert an economic meltdown.  (And for the record, I couldn't stand W. Doesn't mean he was wrong.)
 

[Deranged Rhino]

21 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

i said a few pages back..Trump talked a better game than Obama and it showed in the consumer confidence number..and consumer spending. But now that government  DATA, empirical data mind you,  is being reported , and those numbers are not great...that confidence is prolly going to be eroded. So be it. I am really shocked to hear you of all people saying the media should only tell the rosy part of stories, and not report the whole story.That is a switch for you.  

In no way is that what I'm advocating for. 

[plenzmd1]

1 minute ago, Deranged Rhino said:

In no way is that what I'm advocating for. 

so, how is reporting numbers put out by government agencies and using Trumps own words  "media campaign"

[Deranged Rhino]

6 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

so, how is reporting numbers put out by government agencies and using Trumps own words  "media campaign"

 

It's more than reporting the numbers. It's spin on the numbers and crying out doom is coming like Paul Revere when the numbers don't back that up.

(aka: an influencing campaign)

 

Example: Russia "meddled" with our election being reported in 2016-2017 and suddenly morphing into "Russia colluded with Trump to steal the election" without anyone batting an eye. 

Edited August 22, 2019 by Deranged Rhino

[plenzmd1]

12 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

  And, when numbers are revised the last few years, the data is frequently revised upward (you can check this thread for those numbers - before and after - as people have been pretty good about posting them).

Contrast that with many of the Obama years when numbers would be revised downward (and buried on page 57, paragraph 23). 



Retail and consumer goods is so much of the US market (we like to consume *****) that if consumer confidence goes down, a recession can be triggered. There was a reason W told people to go out and shop after 9/11. It sounded trite, but it was meant to avert an economic meltdown.  (And for the record, I couldn't stand W. Doesn't mean he was wrong.)
 

#1) Are you saying that numbers put out by BEA and CBO and the the Fed are cooked? I think that is what you are saying.

 

And i mean, I guess this revision does not count as it does not support the thesis of best ever economy and numbers always adjusted up?

 

https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/gross-domestic-product-4th-quarter-and-annual-2018-third-estimate-corporate-profits-4th

 

#2) Consumer confidence is the prolly the most important component of our economy..consumer spending is 70% of GDP. That being said, consumers also have a right to know the underlying economic data ..are you and DR seem to be saying the media should not report all the numbers and just cheerlead and say "nothing to see here, all is well cause Trump is POTUS".

3 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

It's more than reporting the numbers. It's spin on the numbers and crying out doom is coming like Paul Revere when the numbers don't back that up.

(aka: an influencing campaign)

aint no spin..numbers be numbers be numbers..I mean I still cant believe the conservative press is not reporting the deficit s it should, that is the real spin going on....

 

only real  spin is by guys like Kudlow and Trump devotees who refuse to believe any data that does not support the second coming thesis espoused by Trump

Edited August 22, 2019 by plenzmd1

[Deranged Rhino]

6 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

aint no spin..numbers be numbers be numbers..I mean I still cant believe the conservative press is not reporting the deficit s it should, that is the real spin going on....

 

only real  spin is by guys like Kudlow and Trump devotees who refuse to believe any data that does not support the second coming thesis espoused by Trump

 

If you don't see the spin there's nothing I can do for you my friend.  

https://www.mrctv.org/videos/foxs-charles-payne-slams-medias-deliberate-attempt-stoke-recession-fears

 

(And both sides spin, never once have I said anything but that)

Edited August 22, 2019 by Deranged Rhino

[Buffalo_Gal]

17 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

#1) Are you saying that numbers put out by BEA and CBO and the the Fed are cooked? I think that is what you are saying.

 

#2) Consumer confidence is the prolly the most important component of our economy..consumer spending is 70% of GDP. That being said, consumers also have a right to know the underlying economic data ..are you and DR seem to be saying the media should not report all the numbers and just cheerlead and say "nothing to see here, all is well cause Trump is POTUS".

aint no spin..numbers be numbers be numbers..I mean I still cant believe the conservative press is not reporting the deficit s it should, that is the real spin going on....

 

only real  spin is by guys like Kudlow and Trump devotees who refuse to believe any data that does not support the second coming thesis espoused by Trump

Well, they do seem to be "revised" upward nearly every stinkin' month to Z after being announced as Y. You tell me what that means. ?

Again, if you want to be a Debbie Downer that is your right. However, the MSM has been screeching recession since the day Trump was inaugurated. There are video clips in this thread posted with astonishment when one of the news agencies actually reported good economic news. Again, the good times have been rolling the last few years, so why wouldn't the MSM be leading every newscast with that?

 

Edited August 22, 2019 by Buffalo_Gal

[plenzmd1]

16 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Well, they do seem to be "revised" upward nearly every stinkin' month to Z after being announced as Y. You tell me what that means. ?

Again, if you want to be a Debbie Downer that is your right. However, the MSM has been screeching recession since the day Trump was inaugurated. There are video clips in this thread posted with astonishment when one of the news agencies actually reported good economic news. Again, the good times have been rolling the last few years, so why wouldn't the MSM be leading every newscast with that?

 

Why does reporting economic data make me a debbie downer? If you want to bury your head in the sand and never see real economic data, your choice. I prefer not to believe something something just cause someone tells me  it is so( hmm, where  have a heard that before), and you believe everything Trump and  his admin tell you to believe, again your choice and makes things easy.

 

Let me ask you a question, and please answer honestly..,did you care about the deficit under Obama and criticize him for it?  How has that changed no that trump is in office?

 

 

[TPS]

1 hour ago, GG said:

 

Speaking of context, the discussion about never hitting a 3% growth rate was to excuse away sub-2.0% growth following a major recession.   Can a dead cat bounce higher than 1.5%?

 

What's more impressive, hitting above 2.5% eight years into a recovery, or barely scraping 2.0% within 3 years of a recovery after pumping it with over $3 trillion in stimulous?

I see.  At the moment, Trump has not had a year of growth exceeding Obama's best year.  I will bet you a nice bottle of Cabernet that he won't exceed 3% in any of his 4 years....

 

15 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

Why does reporting economic data make me a debbie downer? If you want to bury your head in the sand and never see real economic data, your choice. I prefer not to believe something something just cause someone tells me  it is so( hmm, where  have a heard that before), and you believe everything Trump and  his admin tell you to believe, again your choice and makes things easy.

 

Let me ask you a question, and please answer honestly..,did you care about the deficit under Obama and criticize him for it?  How has that changed no that trump is in office?

 

 

As I said, it's a religion...he is the "chosen one" afterall.....

[GG]

2 minutes ago, TPS said:

I see.  At the moment, Trump has not had a year of growth exceeding Obama's best year.  I will bet you a nice bottle of Cabernet that he won't exceed 3% in any of his 4 years....

 

You're crowing about the only administration in history that didn't hit 3% following a recession and poo poohing 2.9% growth in year 9 of a recovery, following downswing in growth.  

[TPS]

1 hour ago, GG said:

You're crowing about the only administration in history that didn't hit 3% following a recession and poo poohing 2.9% growth in year 9 of a recovery, following downswing in growth.  

I guess the answer is no.

[And your interpretation is wrong, as usual. When I say Trump's numbers are not much better than Obama's, that's calling out the current roosters....]

[3rdnlng]

The one indication of prosperity that cannot be denied is wages. Wages have gone up under Trump where previously they were stagnant. Everything else is superfluous.

[Buffalo_Gal]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

Why does reporting economic data make me a debbie downer? If you want to bury your head in the sand and never see real economic data, your choice. I prefer not to believe something something just cause someone tells me  it is so( hmm, where  have a heard that before), and you believe everything Trump and  his admin tell you to believe, again your choice and makes things easy.

 

Let me ask you a question, and please answer honestly..,did you care about the deficit under Obama and criticize him for it?  How has that changed no that trump is in office?

 

 

Did I care about the deficit growing 74% under Obama? Yes.  Do I care about the deficit growing 30% under Trump? Yes.

 

[GG]

11 minutes ago, TPS said:

I guess the answer is no.

[And your interpretation is wrong, as usual. When I say Trump's numbers are not much better than Obama's, that's calling out the current roosters....]

 

I admit that I was wrong ... when I referenced 3% as the wishful growth rate.   Old age is getting the better of me.   

 

As I reflect now, the discussions were about 2% growth rates and 8% unemployment rates being the "new normal"  Kind of fun going back into the memory banks to hear the explanations of how we should get used to European-style economies of low growth and high unemployment.  Because that's what enlightened countries do. 

 

This was a doozy

 

Quote

 

Since he took office at the height of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, Obama has signed an economic stimulus package of historic proportions, overseen the bailout of the nation's financial industry and watched the Federal Reserve cut interest rates effectively to zero and move to purchase hundreds of billions of dollars in Treasury bonds to help stimulate activity. After all that, he said Sunday, there may be limits to what more government can do.

 

"Some of this is going to be just a matter of the economy healing," he said. "Especially an economy this big, there are limited tools to encourage the kind of job growth that we need.

 

 

[plenzmd1]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Did I care about the deficit growing 74% under Obama? Yes.  Do I care about the deficit growing 30% under Trump? Yes.

 

disingenuous comment..Obama inherited an economy in the midst of the biggest recession in 40 years..exactly when government spending should increase to stimulate growth.

 

Trump  inherited a good economy, and yet will more than double the deficit in Obamas last year., and triple it from the 3 years previous.in supposedly , in Trumps words. the best economy ever.

 

All Figures from the CBO

 

• Fiscal 2013: $680 billion
• Fiscal 2014: $485 billion
• Fiscal 2015: $438 billion
• Fiscal 2016: $587 billion

• Fiscal 2018: $779 billion (9 months of tax cuts being in effect)
• Fiscal 2019: $896 billion
• Fiscal 2020: $990 billion
• Fiscal 2021: $1,092 billion
• Fiscal 2022: $1,250 billion

So fiscal 2022 is projected to be well over a 100% increase, and that is if we see no economic downturn and see receipys fall and Trump does not incast any addtional tax decreases to try and stimulate the economy..which he has said he is considering

 

...some great fiscal conservative Trump is. But again, trust in Trump..he will have the budget balanced quickly and the national debt paid off in 8 years.