Tiberius Posted August 13, 2019 Posted August 13, 2019 Drudge Report is hysterical! BANK OF AMERICA raises chance of recession to 1-in-3...Fed Considers New Tool for Downturn... OUT OF CONTROL: Federal Spending Sets New Record...Deficit Widens 27%...American household debt nears $14 trillion... Treasury yields extend plunge...
Tiberius Posted August 13, 2019 Posted August 13, 2019 Looks like Trump blinked on trade war and stock market took off! No clue what a Chinese crackdown on little Hong Kong will do, but I bet it will reverberate
plenzmd1 Posted August 13, 2019 Posted August 13, 2019 2 hours ago, Tiberius said: Looks like Trump blinked on trade war and stock market took off! No clue what a Chinese crackdown on little Hong Kong will do, but I bet it will reverberate Of course he did, it was never a question of what was going to happen there. Is anyone else getting sick of a sideways market for the last two years..i know I am 26,616 when tax law went into effect...26,300 now..and a deficit that has exploded, and the R word getting used more and more Yay Trump economy!!!!!
Tiberius Posted August 13, 2019 Posted August 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: Of course he did, it was never a question of what was going to happen there. Is anyone else getting sick of a sideways market for the last two years..i know I am 26,616 when tax law went into effect...26,300 now..and a deficit that has exploded, and the R word getting used more and more Yay Trump economy!!!!! Yah, it got a little dead cat bounce for tax law and has been just staying around that area.
ALF Posted August 14, 2019 Posted August 14, 2019 Recession indicator with perfect track record flashing red The yield curve is blaring a recession warning. The spread between the U.S. 2-year and 10-year yields on Wednesday turned negative for the first time since 2007. Such a development has occurred ahead of each and every U.S. recession of the last 50 years, sometimes leading by as much as 24 months. “Historically, the 2-10 has had better predictive ability of recession than equities,” Sri Kumar, president of the Santa Monica, California-based Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, told Fox Business. “If you depended on equities to tell you whether you are entering into a recession you did not do well. For example, October, November of 2006, exactly one year before the Great Recession began, the 2-10- inverted. Equities did well in the first half of 2008 when we were in a recession and oil prices hit a peak in May of 2008 when we were very much in a recession. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/yield-curve-inversion-signals-recession German economy shrinks as 'golden decade' comes to an end Germany's economy shrank in the second quarter as global uncertainty and the trade war took a toll on its manufacturers. https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/14/business/germany-economy-gdp/index.html 1
plenzmd1 Posted August 14, 2019 Posted August 14, 2019 @TPS and @GG, yall prolly get this stuff already, but good primer for us laymen https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-21/modern-monetary-theory-beginner-s-guide?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Q2-2019_Bloomberg_Retargeting_Evergreen-Subscription_All-Users_Phase1-Countries&utm_term=Retargeting_Paywall-Subscription_Engagement_Organic-Engagers_Male-Female_All-Ages_Twitter&utm_content=Content_Article_Modern-Monetary_V1 I have not read fully yet, will when get some time later today. 1
GG Posted August 14, 2019 Author Posted August 14, 2019 15 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: @TPS and @GG, yall prolly get this stuff already, but good primer for us laymen https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-21/modern-monetary-theory-beginner-s-guide?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Q2-2019_Bloomberg_Retargeting_Evergreen-Subscription_All-Users_Phase1-Countries&utm_term=Retargeting_Paywall-Subscription_Engagement_Organic-Engagers_Male-Female_All-Ages_Twitter&utm_content=Content_Article_Modern-Monetary_V1 I have not read fully yet, will when get some time later today. In short, MMT'ers are morons. They have cause & effect backwards. It's like saying that you should expect the same results from Nate Peterman as you would from Tom Brady because they're both called Quarterbacks. (For DC Tom's request that we discuss QBs) 1 1
TPS Posted August 14, 2019 Posted August 14, 2019 42 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: @TPS and @GG, yall prolly get this stuff already, but good primer for us laymen https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-21/modern-monetary-theory-beginner-s-guide?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Q2-2019_Bloomberg_Retargeting_Evergreen-Subscription_All-Users_Phase1-Countries&utm_term=Retargeting_Paywall-Subscription_Engagement_Organic-Engagers_Male-Female_All-Ages_Twitter&utm_content=Content_Article_Modern-Monetary_V1 I have not read fully yet, will when get some time later today. When you read it, you'll see that much of my argument with GG is based on an understanding of MMT. There is no debate about the technical details of the argument, but there are disagreements about their policy suggestions, especially the job guarantee. I'll let you decide who the moron is.... 1
GG Posted August 14, 2019 Author Posted August 14, 2019 11 minutes ago, TPS said: When you read it, you'll see that much of my argument with GG is based on an understanding of MMT. There is no debate about the technical details of the argument, but there are disagreements about their policy suggestions, especially the job guarantee. I'll let you decide who the moron is.... Yes, technical details similar to 2 guys being QBs, wearing a helmet, receiving a snap, and dropping back to pass the ball. The technical details are identical. The execution, not so much. If the theory was correct, it would apply equally to USA as it would to Argentina.
TPS Posted August 14, 2019 Posted August 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, GG said: Yes, technical details similar to 2 guys being QBs, wearing a helmet, receiving a snap, and dropping back to pass the ball. The technical details are identical. The execution, not so much. If the theory was correct, it would apply equally to USA as it would to Argentina. Says someone who probably hasn't bothered to read the theory...otherwise you would know what they say about different institutional structures related to monetary and fiscal policies, and exchange rate regimes.
GG Posted August 14, 2019 Author Posted August 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, TPS said: Says someone who probably hasn't bothered to read the theory...otherwise you would know what they say about different institutional structures related to monetary and fiscal policies, and exchange rate regimes. So it's a bull#### theory. It basically says that if you're blessed to be a reserve currency you can issue unlimited debt. It assumes that the markets will continue to accept your currency as the global standard forever. Like a vote of confidence to Bank of England in 1910.
TPS Posted August 14, 2019 Posted August 14, 2019 16 minutes ago, GG said: So it's a bull#### theory. It basically says that if you're blessed to be a reserve currency you can issue unlimited debt. It assumes that the markets will continue to accept your currency as the global standard forever. Like a vote of confidence to Bank of England in 1910. Speaking of bull####, you stated in a previous post, "My entire point is that not all countries are the SAME." Yet, you now claim that a theory that says "the US and Argentina are NOT the same" is bull####. Interesting.... 1
Tiberius Posted August 14, 2019 Posted August 14, 2019 So Trump enthusiastically supports a no deal Brexit? That will cause some serious problems. Recession is also certain if that happens.
Tiberius Posted August 14, 2019 Posted August 14, 2019 Trump knows what he is doing? AOC could easily do a better job than this complete clown Quote FRANKFURT — In ominous signs of the damage being done by the trade war between China and the United States, data released on Wednesday indicated that the German economy is hurtling toward recession and that growth at Chinese factories is slowing at a pace not seen in almost two decades. Germany’s economy shrank 0.1 percent from April through June and it has been treading water for the past year, the government’s official statistics agency said. Deutsche Bank analysts predicted that the economy would continue to shrink in the current quarter, meeting the technical definition of a recession. In China, factory output in July fell to its slowest pace in 17 years, according to government data. Although the Chinese economy posted trade figures that were stronger than expected last week, the industrial output figure was another sign that China’s overall growth rate continues to slow under the weight of Beijing’s trade war with the United States and the country’s debt problems. It is not surprising that China and Germany are stumbling under the weight of the trade pressures. China is the world’s largest exporter of goods and services, just ahead of the United States, and Germany is No. 3. Both have been countries hit directly by President Trump’s tariffs, and more broadly by the disruption to the global economy that the trade conflict has caused. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/14/business/german-economy.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
TPS Posted August 14, 2019 Posted August 14, 2019 21 hours ago, plenzmd1 said: Of course he did, it was never a question of what was going to happen there. Is anyone else getting sick of a sideways market for the last two years..i know I am 26,616 when tax law went into effect...26,300 now..and a deficit that has exploded, and the R word getting used more and more Yay Trump economy!!!!! If Trump reacts to anything, it's the stock markets. I'm sure he will hurl more disparaging tweets at Powell about lowering interest rates (and the Fed most likely will), but this is all on Trump. It will be interesting to see how he responds to today's "signal".....
row_33 Posted August 14, 2019 Posted August 14, 2019 It can lose many more thousand points and be back to Obama’s greatest ever economic miracle
Deranged Rhino Posted August 14, 2019 Posted August 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, TPS said: If Trump reacts to anything, it's the stock markets. I'm sure he will hurl more disparaging tweets at Powell about lowering interest rates (and the Fed most likely will), but this is all on Trump. It will be interesting to see how he responds to today's "signal"..... 1
TH3 Posted August 14, 2019 Posted August 14, 2019 Hey - If the stock market reverts over the next 12 months....at least DT can run on his bank of promises and claims made and kept: Wall built and Mexico paid for it✔️, budget balanced✔️, national debt paid off✔️, ACA repealed and replaced with something better ✔️ and ✔️, illegal immigration under control✔️, Korean peninsula denuclearized ✔️, opiate problem solved✔️, trade balance with China down✔️, NAFTA renegotiated and enacted ✔️, new trade deal with China✔️. All than and gerrymandering taken care of✔️ - Russians rebuked and tamped down when it comes to election middling ✔️... I mean that pretty much will make his win loss record 13-1 2 1
TPS Posted August 14, 2019 Posted August 14, 2019 44 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said: Btw, if the route continues, I can see the FED dropping rates by 50 basis points very, very soon. The 30-year rate is approaching the 3-month rate....
ALF Posted August 14, 2019 Posted August 14, 2019 32 minutes ago, TPS said: Btw, if the route continues, I can see the FED dropping rates by 50 basis points very, very soon. The 30-year rate is approaching the 3-month rate.... With present tariffs , would 0% fed rates cause inflation ?
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