Foxx Posted August 2, 2019 Posted August 2, 2019 10 hours ago, Tiberius said: Hyper inflation? Huh? Hey, where is the Tea Party, taxed enough already? Another $300 billion in taxes? Not a word from the Taxed Enough Already crowd, what frauds, what hypocrites try again Tibsey. https://twitter.com/SteveScalise/status/1157287802939355138
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted August 2, 2019 Posted August 2, 2019 7 hours ago, Koko78 said: So you're now upset that people are paying their "fair share"? ...and how about those trapped in AMT and forced to pay MORE than their fair share?............
TPS Posted August 2, 2019 Posted August 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Foxx said: try again Tibsey. https://twitter.com/SteveScalise/status/1157287802939355138 The average employment gain per month under Trump is 195,000. The average over Obama's second term was 212,000. Touting "a new record" for total employment is like me saying I set a new record for my age today.... 2
Thurmal34 Posted August 3, 2019 Posted August 3, 2019 Who wants to play consecutive quarterly growth since 2009? Who wants to play GDP growth over the last 6 quarters? Does anyone want the actual truth?
keepthefaith Posted August 3, 2019 Posted August 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, Thurmal34 said: Who wants to play consecutive quarterly growth since 2009? Who wants to play GDP growth over the last 6 quarters? Does anyone want the actual truth? What's your point?
Thurmal34 Posted August 3, 2019 Posted August 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, keepthefaith said: What's your point? My point is that you don’t want to deal in reality. Or do you? COnsecutive quarterly growth since 09 not your kind of number? Last six quarters of GDP growth not what you wanted to hear?
keepthefaith Posted August 3, 2019 Posted August 3, 2019 10 minutes ago, Thurmal34 said: My point is that you don’t want to deal in reality. Or do you? COnsecutive quarterly growth since 09 not your kind of number? Last six quarters of GDP growth not what you wanted to hear? You haven't made any point. Post some numbers and whatever it is you're trying to say.
Thurmal34 Posted August 3, 2019 Posted August 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, keepthefaith said: You haven't made any point. Post some numbers and whatever it is you're trying to say. I’m not really sure where to go from here. The facts speak for themselves. Are you afraid? 1
TPS Posted August 3, 2019 Posted August 3, 2019 2012 181 2013 192 2014 251 2015 227 2016 193 2017 179 2018 223 2019 to-date = 165 These are the monthly averages (in 1000s) by year since 2012. The past 2.5 years has been nothing special. 2018 was boosted by Trump's "deficit spending." The current trend is not so hot... As I mentioned, he will have to buckle before the Chinese do. 1
TPS Posted August 3, 2019 Posted August 3, 2019 This is an interesting tweet by Trump, but I don't think he's talking about tariffs here. What he really should say is they are selling US lots of stuff, then using the dollars they get from their trade surplus to buy treasuries to keep the USD from depreciating against the yuan. We get stuff, they get US paper.
Buffalo_Gal Posted August 3, 2019 Posted August 3, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, TPS said: 2012 181 2013 192 2014 251 2015 227 2016 193 2017 179 2018 223 2019 to-date = 165 These are the monthly averages (in 1000s) by year since 2012. The past 2.5 years has been nothing special. 2018 was boosted by Trump's "deficit spending." The current trend is not so hot... As I mentioned, he will have to buckle before the Chinese do. So in 2008, 2009, 2010, etc how many jobs were lost that finally came back in 2012, 2013? IOW how long until the base number of jobs came back to 2007 (I am just guessing 2007 was the high point, I do not know) levels? Are there really more people employed now than ever before? Were there more people employed in 2015 than now? I guess what I am looking for is if you crash, until you get back to where you were, you haven't gained anything regardless of how great the new jobs numbers are subsequent to that crash. And if smaller numbers are gaining on "highest ever" than that is a more difficult achievement than gaining on negative numbers (no where to go but up). Oh, and another question - how do they count self-employed people? So, let's say that the economy was in the toilet in 2009 and 1M jobs were lost, but 500K of those people went on to be self-employed at a living wage. Are those new jobs created? Counted as only 500K jobs lost? Or do they go into the ether? Edited August 3, 2019 by Buffalo_Gal
Tiberius Posted August 3, 2019 Posted August 3, 2019 15 hours ago, Foxx said: try again Tibsey. https://twitter.com/SteveScalise/status/1157287802939355138 Well, when you are spending a TRILLION a year in money you don't have, the economy better be doing something good! Trump is just leveraging out the country, then he will declare bankruptcy and laugh at the suckers that sort of elected him
3rdnlng Posted August 3, 2019 Posted August 3, 2019 Pretty much the real measure of the economy is wages. Anything else is hit or miss and can be explained away but when companies voluntarily boost wages it's because they have no other choice but to compete for labor.
keepthefaith Posted August 3, 2019 Posted August 3, 2019 2 hours ago, TPS said: This is an interesting tweet by Trump, but I don't think he's talking about tariffs here. What he really should say is they are selling US lots of stuff, then using the dollars they get from their trade surplus to buy treasuries to keep the USD from depreciating against the yuan. We get stuff, they get US paper. Well that gives me comfort knowing the Chinese are willing to be best bidder for some of our debt and help us to fund the cocaine that drives our economy. On the other hand their investment in our stable currency + 2% beats the ***** out of their falling currency. All hail to Trump and Xi for making it happen.
Tiberius Posted August 3, 2019 Posted August 3, 2019 12 hours ago, Thurmal34 said: Who wants to play consecutive quarterly growth since 2009? Who wants to play GDP growth over the last 6 quarters? Does anyone want the actual truth? Yes! Tell us!
TPS Posted August 3, 2019 Posted August 3, 2019 2 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said: So in 2008, 2009, 2010, etc how many jobs were lost that finally came back in 2012, 2013? IOW how long until the base number of jobs came back to 2007 (I am just guessing 2007 was the high point, I do not know) levels? Are there really more people employed now than ever before? Were there more people employed in 2015 than now? I guess what I am looking for is if you crash, until you get back to where you were, you haven't gained anything regardless of how great the new jobs numbers are subsequent to that crash. And if smaller numbers are gaining on "highest ever" than that is a more difficult achievement than gaining on negative numbers (no where to go but up). Oh, and another question - how do they count self-employed people? So, let's say that the economy was in the toilet in 2009 and 1M jobs were lost, but 500K of those people went on to be self-employed at a living wage. Are those new jobs created? Counted as only 500K jobs lost? Or do they go into the ether? My point: focusing on jobs, saying we're at a new record, does not carry a lot of weight in an economy where the population is growing over time, hence my age comment. Let me also say once again, I am glad Trump used "deficit spending" (widening the gap between government expenditures and revenues) to stimulate the economy when unemployment was approaching what many economists thought was full employment--he helped blow a hole in the traditional view. However, since most of the tax cuts go to the top payers, the impact is weaker since they spend less of any additional income. Corporate tax cuts have also mainly been used to fund stock buybacks, though the 100% expensing of equipment gave a brief jolt. As those stimulants have worn off, we're back to an economy not much different than what was going on the previous 4 years--my point. I believe I posted this graph at some point in this thread for the same reason: To answer your question: the previous peak was Jan 2008 which was surpassed in May 2014. Since then, there hasn't been much of a difference in the growth of employment. As I argue, Trump's second year was good because most of his stimulus was done then. Trump is also right to castigate the FED for raising rates, as that is what has caused most of the recessions since 1960. Growth should continue as long as the FED let's it, but Trump's tariffs are also having a negative effect. Unfortunately, he's playing a long game, but he's running out of time--the 2020 election. The Chinese can wait him out. I have also given him credit here. Changes in global production take time, so any positive gains from producers "insourcing" will be gradual. However, most of the manufacturing that comes back will be capital intensive, requiring even less labor than in the past (this has always been the case for much of manufacturing). Any amount is good in my view. The best thing for trump is if wages continue to rise faster, as wages and consumption by the middle class is the most important factor that will drive economic growth in the US. 1
Buffalo_Gal Posted August 3, 2019 Posted August 3, 2019 Some interesting stuff about job creation during the Obama "recovery" years. From Alen Krueger (in 2016) chair of the Obama White House Council of Economic Adviser: (2011-2013) “We find that 94% of net job growth in the past decade was in the alternative work category,” said Krueger. “And over 60% was due to the [the rise] of independent contractors, freelancers and contract company workers.” In other words, nearly all of the 10 million jobs created between 2005 and 2015 were not traditional nine-to-five employment </snip> Link to "non traditional jobs paper" I find that interesting. Apparently, not all jobs are created equal. (haha!) Do FT jobs and PT jobs count equally for unemployment numbers? And, does anyone track a PT position (or two) being accepted in place of that FT position?
3rdnlng Posted August 4, 2019 Posted August 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Buffalo_Gal said: Some interesting stuff about job creation during the Obama "recovery" years. From Alen Krueger (in 2016) chair of the Obama White House Council of Economic Adviser: (2011-2013) “We find that 94% of net job growth in the past decade was in the alternative work category,” said Krueger. “And over 60% was due to the [the rise] of independent contractors, freelancers and contract company workers.” In other words, nearly all of the 10 million jobs created between 2005 and 2015 were not traditional nine-to-five employment </snip> Link to "non traditional jobs paper" I find that interesting. Apparently, not all jobs are created equal. (haha!) Do FT jobs and PT jobs count equally for unemployment numbers? And, does anyone track a PT position (or two) being accepted in place of that FT position? Because the numbers can be so subjective the best way to determine how the economy is doing is to see how wages are doing. Wages go up when the labor supply hits a point where companies have to compete for workers. If wages are growing then the economy is doing well. It sounds pretty simple because it is pretty simple.
Thurmal34 Posted August 4, 2019 Posted August 4, 2019 Yeah so why do we as Americans keep tying our economic status to what our exec does? who wants to do deficit spending math?
Thurmal34 Posted August 4, 2019 Posted August 4, 2019 So bad, the morons. They will believe anything.
Recommended Posts