The Trump Economy

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5 hours ago, ALF said:

US government is running out of money faster than expected, Mnuchin warns

 

In a letter to Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Mnuchin wrote that the US might default on its obligations as soon as early September, before Congress returns from its summer recess.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/12/politics/mnuchin-congress-letter-debt-crisis/index.html

 

But , but the economy is booming and unemployment at a record low.

 

The Federal Government is not "running out of money".  The Federal Government is approaching it's Debt Ceiling, which is in effect Uncle Sam's credit card limit. 

 

Obama and Congressional Republicans got into a pissing contest over the Debt Ceiling a few times earlier this decade as did Clinton and Congressional Republicans in the 90s.  Now it's going to be Trump and Congressional Democrats turn.

 

Basically Congress sets an artificial limit on how much money they can borrow to fund the Government.  When that limit is approached they start yelling at each other about out of control spending or greedy people not paying their fair share.  Political grandstanding by both parties is eventually followed by an agreement to increase the Debt Ceiling in exchange for some meaningless symbolic concessions. 

 

The underlying problem of Federal spending increasing at a faster rate than the economy in general is not addressed, but meh.  That's for a later Congress to figure out, amirite?

 

 

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

 

[jrober38]

On 7/13/2019 at 6:44 PM, SoCal Deek said:

What’s your point Alf? The economy and government spending are not connected.

 

A component of GDP is literally the amount of government spending an economy has.

 

Historically when an economy is expanding, responsible governments typically reduce their deficit due to increased tax revenues. That's what happened from 2009 to 2017 (the deficit was reduced by about 60% from Obama's first year to his last). 

 

The exact opposite has happened under Trump. The GDP is great, partly due to increased government spending, however at the same time taxes have been reduced and the Treasury is bringing in less cash, and as a result the deficit has ballooned from $585 billion in 2016 to an estimated $1.1 trillion this year. 

 

If the economy slows down, and the treasury starts bringing in even less money, the deficit could explode even further. 

 

8 years ago Republicans were up in arms about the deficit and the national debt, and now no one seems to care. It's very strange. 

Edited July 16, 2019 by jrober38

[Deranged Rhino]

8 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

A component of GDP is literally the amount of government spending an economy has.

 

Historically when an economy is expanding, responsible governments typically reduce their deficit due to increased tax revenues. That's what happened from 2009 to 2017 (the deficit was reduced by about 60% from Obama's first year to his last). 

 

The exact opposite has happened under Trump. The GDP is great, partly due to increased government spending, however at the same time taxes have been reduced and the Treasury is bringing in less cash, and as a result the deficit has ballooned from $585 billion in 2016 to an estimated $1.1 trillion this year. 

 

If the economy slows down, and the treasury starts bringing in even less money, the deficit could explode even further. 

 

8 years ago Republicans were up in arms about the deficit and the national debt, and now no one seems to care. It's very strange. 

 

It's not strange if you've paid attention the past twenty years or more. 

 

Both sides run up the spending, then protest about it while out of power. 

 

Because both sides are really the same. 

[jrober38]

13 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

It's not strange if you've paid attention the past twenty years or more. 

 

Both sides run up the spending, then protest about it while out of power. 

 

Because both sides are really the same. 

 

If you look at the last 10 years, that's not what happened.

 

Obama inherited a $1.4 trillion deficit from George Bush in the midst of an economic crash. 

 

When he left eight years later the deficit was under $600 billion (down about 60%).

 

In two and a half years, Trump has ballooned it back up to $1.1 trillion despite the economy doing its best in 50 years. This is almost entirely due to tax breaks to high income earners and increases in military spending.

 

When the economy inevitably slows down, like it always does because every capitalist economy is cyclical, the deficit will balloon even farther when less tax revenue comes in. At that point the federal government will either need to hike taxes, or drastically reduce spending to offset government spending. 

 

Like I said, 8 years ago the Tea Party formed to protest government spending. Where'd those people go?

Edited July 16, 2019 by jrober38

[Hedge]

 

 

[Doc Brown]

11 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

If you look at the last 10 years, that's not what happened.

 

Obama inherited a $1.4 trillion deficit from George Bush in the midst of an economic crash. 

 

When he left eight years later the deficit was under $600 billion (down about 60%).

 

In two and a half years, Trump has ballooned it back up to $1.1 trillion despite the economy doing its best in 50 years. This is almost entirely due to tax breaks to high income earners and increases in military spending.

 

When the economy inevitably slows down, like it always does because every capitalist economy is cyclical, the deficit will balloon even farther when less tax revenue comes in. At that point the federal government will either need to hike taxes, or drastically reduce spending to offset government spending. 

 

Like I said, 8 years ago the Tea Party formed to protest government spending. Where'd those people go?

You want Republicans to complain about the deficit you need a Democratic president.

 

At least some conservative sites are calling Republicans out.....  They of course put the blame mostly on McConnell because of Trump's popularity with Republicans.

 

The upcoming September budget fight is everything. It will determine whether under Trump’s presidency we will even return to Obama levels of illegal immigration and debt or whether it will be much worse. It’s that simple. Yet Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is pre-emptively surrendering the fight on both issues before it even begins, as he has done with every budget battle even when Republicans controlled the House.

 

Despite the president’s promise in his budget blueprint to hold the line on the spending caps and not increase spending yet again, the Washington Post reported that Mitch McConnell convinced the president that “no politician had ever lost office for spending more money.” According to two of the Post’s sources, McConnell delivered that message to the president in June. McConnell wants to join with Democrats in increasing the spending caps.

 

I wrote last month about McConnell chewing out Trump’s budget chief over the spending caps. Now it is clear that McConnell wants to blow up Trump’s final remaining leverage point. Both national security conservatism and fiscal conservatism are dead as a doorknob in the GOP-controlled Senate, and there is no sign that will change with the upcoming election.

 

Let’s review how we got here.

 

After refusing to fight on a single budget or debt ceiling when Republicans held trifecta control of government, Trump finally fought his way to a standstill in the beginning of this year. The budget bill Trump signed in February and the subsequent supplement bills were supposed to be Trump’s leverage point to go on offense on the border issue, change policies incentivizing the invasion, and fund more detention space and deportations for ICE.

 

Yet instead, Republicans allowed Democrats to move the Overton window of expectations and shift the landscape of the political debate far to the left. The February budget bill included a bar on building a border wall in the most critical cartel smuggling corridors, a provision inviting illegal immigrants to get amnesty in return for sponsoring more illegal aliens, and limiting, instead of expanding, ICE detention space.

 

Then Republicans completely surrendered on the disaster aid bill. Next, they requested a border bill from Democrats that had no funding for enforcement, detention space, or deportations and only had funding for humanitarian aid for  illegal immigrants, refugee resettlement for self-trafficked Central American teens, and legal aid so they can sue for more extra-constitutional rights. Democrats moved the Overton window even further to the Left by having their House leaders balk at the bill and propose an even more radical bill that would have gone backwards on the border and would have essentially shut down a large amount of immigration enforcement through new policy changes.

 

Ultimately, Democrats knew the House bill would never pass, but because Republicans started negotiations with the Senate bill that was, in some ways, worse than current law, they allowed Democrats to both look like they were giving in but also moving expectations further to the Left.

 

This is where we stand with the September budget bill. Let’s face it: There is no way the White House aides will allow the president to engage in a budget fight right before next year’s election. So this is the last chance for him to enact his priorities or expose the Democrats for their extremism. But Democrats are beginning negotiations by setting their goalpost for the budget with their original House bill. They are also demanding a busting of the budget cap and a free extension of the debt limit. Republicans already agree on the two latter points.

 

This will allow Democrats to once again win everything they want on immigration and spending, while also showing how they “gave ground” by not responding to the border crisis with even more limitation on deportationsthan current law.

 

Illegal immigration is more than double the levels of Obama’s final year, and spending is 18 percent higher. The budget bill is Trump’s final opportunity to fight on both. If Republicans plan to surrender on spending and the debt ceiling, at least use that as a bargaining chip to get more ICE funding. After all, if we are going to bankrupt ourselves on Democrat welfare programs, at least spend more money on getting rid of criminal aliens so we don’t have to pay for their lifetimes of trouble as well.

 

What are we left with if Trump does not fight for us, beginning now, for the September budget bill? The deficit has grown 23 percent in the first nine months of this fiscal year, even though revenue is up three percent. The government has now spent more money this fiscal year (to date) than even in 2009, when we were suffering from the worst recession in decades.

 

If McConnell is allowed to convince Trump to throw away his presidency with this budget bill, we will be left with nothing but debt and illegal immigration. And the American taxpayer paying for both.

[B-Man]

 

 

 

Allahpundit‏ @allahpundit 12h12 hours ago

Swamp Thing, how do you feel about America somehow running a trillion-dollar deficit in an era of stellar economic growth?

 

 

 

.

[jrober38]

7 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

You want Republicans to complain about the deficit you need a Democratic president.

 

It's so hypocritical.

 

When Obama was President, Republicans couldn't stop crying about spending and the deficit.

 

How Trump is President, and no one cares that spending and the deficit are completely out of control.

 

When the economy slows down, the Federal Government is going to be in serious trouble financially. 

[Deranged Rhino]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-18/u-s-consumer-comfort-rises-to-fresh-high-amid-robust-job-market

[plenzmd1]

1 hour ago, Deranged Rhino said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-18/u-s-consumer-comfort-rises-to-fresh-high-amid-robust-job-market

the record was right before the market pooped the bed in the dotcom mess...warning sign? And I am serious. For those who don't know, i like to make a wager or two  on NFL games, and I almost always bet against the public. Aint no difference here.

 

Maybe worth buying a little put on the market as a bit o a hedge...i mean I am way long in more than body parts right now

[3rdnlng]

5 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

the record was right before the market pooped the bed in the dotcom mess...warning sign? And I am serious. For those who don't know, i like to make a wager or two  on NFL games, and I almost always bet against the public. Aint no difference here.

 

Maybe worth buying a little put on the market as a bit o a hedge...i mean I am way long in more than body parts right now

Nose?

[B-Man]

 

?

 

IT’S DEAD, JIM:   Trump Administration & Pelosi Negotiate $2 Trillion Budget Deal Over the Corpse of Fiscal Conservatism. 

 

“Trump’s proposal to cap some domestic spending was DOA in the Democrat-held House, and there’s a deadline coming to raise the debt ceiling or risk default — a chance Mnuchin reportedly doesn’t want to take.

 

Pelosi on the other hand isn’t afraid to play chicken with the debt ceiling. When Republicans hold the House and the there’s a government shutdown, that’s the Republican’s fault. When Democrats hold the House and there’s a government shutdown, that’s the Republican’s fault, too.

 

You can thank the Democrat-Media Complex for this impossible situation.”

 

 

Much more at the link.

 

[plenzmd1]

19 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

?

 

IT’S DEAD, JIM:   Trump Administration & Pelosi Negotiate $2 Trillion Budget Deal Over the Corpse of Fiscal Conservatism. 

 

“Trump’s proposal to cap some domestic spending was DOA in the Democrat-held House, and there’s a deadline coming to raise the debt ceiling or risk default — a chance Mnuchin reportedly doesn’t want to take.

 

Pelosi on the other hand isn’t afraid to play chicken with the debt ceiling. When Republicans hold the House and the there’s a government shutdown, that’s the Republican’s fault. When Democrats hold the House and there’s a government shutdown, that’s the Republican’s fault, too.

 

You can thank the Democrat-Media Complex for this impossible situation.”

 

 

Much more at the link.

 

lets face it, whenRepublicanss held the House..and the Senate....and the White House......the debt still exploded and spending went throiugh the roof.. Damn media, making all those Republicans do the democrats bidding!

 

What a crock o shite that article is

[Foxx]

On 7/17/2019 at 10:54 AM, jrober38 said:

 

It's so hypocritical.

 

When Obama was President, Republicans couldn't stop crying about spending and the deficit.

 

How Trump is President, and no one cares that spending and the deficit are completely out of control.

 

When the economy slows down, the Federal Government is going to be in serious trouble financially. 

because, you know... quantitative easing. amiright?

[jrober38]

4 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

lets face it, whenRepublicanss held the House..and the Senate....and the White House......the debt still exploded and spending went throiugh the roof.. Damn media, making all those Republicans do the democrats bidding!

 

What a crock o shite that article is

 

It's so hypocritical.

 

As I said a few days ago, under Obama Republicans constantly cried about how the country would go bankrupt. 

 

Over 8 years he steadily reduced the deficit. 

 

Now, in 2.5 years, Trumps has ballooned the deficit by over 100% despite the economy doing great. 

 

When things inevitably slow down, the US government's deficit and debt are going to explode to levels that haven't been seen before. 

[3rdnlng]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

It's so hypocritical.

 

As I said a few days ago, under Obama Republicans constantly cried about how the country would go bankrupt. 

 

Over 8 years he steadily reduced the deficit. 

 

Now, in 2.5 years, Trumps has ballooned the deficit by over 100% despite the economy doing great. 

 

When things inevitably slow down, the US government's deficit and debt are going to explode to levels that haven't been seen before. 

You're basing your math on a base year that was an anomaly.

[jrober38]

5 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

You're basing your math on a base year that was an anomaly.

 

No I'm just looking at 2016 compared to now. 

 

Since Obama left office, Trump's military spending and tax cuts for the rich have increased the deficit by over 100%. 

 

When the economy slows down, without changing the tax code, the US might be looking at a yearly deficit of close to $2 trillion. 

 

Where'd the Tea Party go?

Edited July 20, 2019 by jrober38

[3rdnlng]

Lies, lies and statistics. Military spending was increased for a reason. Tax cuts for nearly everyone were for a reason. We don't deal in bumper sticker bs here, so be better or go back to the country you came from, fix it and then come back and show us how it's done.

Edited July 20, 2019 by 3rdnlng