The Trump Economy

[Tiberius]

Just now, westside said:

I want the truth. Not some bot getting paid to deny, deflect and lie. Why are you still here if you're not getting paid? Why put up with all the abuse if you didn't have an agenda?

 

I'm iconoclastic 

[Tiberius]

On 10/11/2018 at 9:36 AM, Magox said:

The stock "selloff" wasn't due to any worries of the economy as a matter of fact it was to the contrary.  Rising rates are being contributed to a healthy economy with no inflation in site according to wallstreet metrics..

 

Even the NY times acknowledges as such.

 

Interest rates are rising for all the right reasons

 

--------------In effect, the multi-trillion dollar global bond market is signaling a little greater confidence than it did just a few weeks ago that the nine-year expansion in the United States may have room to keep going for years to come, and without inflation taking off.

The yield on 10-year United States Treasury bonds reached a seven-year high this week of 3.25 percent (it receded some Wednesday as stocks dropped), up from 2.82 percent in August. The 10-year rate was below 1.4 percent as recently as July 2016.

But beyond those headline numbers, the details of how the prices of different types of securities have moved relative to one another tell a story that is decidedly optimistic.----------

 

This is what many investors and economists refer to as the "Goldilocks economy" 

 

Getting back to this, bonds rates are taking off in part because of the tax cuts which juiced the economy. The wealthy got their tax cuts and the rest of us got higher interest rates and a whole lot of federal debt to pay higher interest rates on. Do you think the tax cuts accelerated the bond hikes? 

[Azalin]

On 10/12/2018 at 11:05 AM, westside said:

I want the truth. Not some bot getting paid to deny, deflect and lie. Why are you still here if you're not getting paid? Why put up with all the abuse if you didn't have an agenda?

 

 

Because he gets a laugh out of people responding to him. He has half the board dancing on strings at his bidding.

[Magox]

1 minute ago, Tiberius said:

Getting back to this, bonds rates are taking off in part because of the tax cuts which juiced the economy. The wealthy got their tax cuts and the rest of us got higher interest rates and a whole lot of federal debt to pay higher interest rates on. Do you think the tax cuts accelerated the bond hikes? 

 

That's a lot of innuendo that you just threw in there.  Federal policy interest rate decision makers and investors don't view it in the scope you just laid out.  It's simple, is the economy growing at a rate to where interest rates need to return to a normalization of interest rates to avoid inflation?    That's it, nothing else.  

 

We are still at a low rate for interest rates and if we had remained at very low interest rates then that would imply that the economy is still not that strong.  The fact that interest rates are rising above these historically low rates is an indication that the economy is finally kicking into the next gear.  

 

So do I believe that the tax cuts have helped the economy expand more so than if we hadn't have had them?   Yes.  I think it has helped the middle class in two ways, A) They received a small tax cut that helped them some and B) It has helped businesses invest more money into their company  than if there hadn't been the tax cuts.

 

Without doubt the tax cuts have been a net plus in regards to overall growth for the economy.  My concern is what sort of national debt implications there are.  I won't know that until we see how much the added growth added to tax receipt collections vs the cost of the cuts from the original baseline if there hadn't been the cuts.

[Tiberius]

15 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

So do I believe that the tax cuts have helped the economy expand more so than if we hadn't have had them?   Yes.  I think it has helped the middle class in two ways, A) They received a small tax cut that helped them some and B) It has helped businesses invest more money into their company  than if there hadn't been the tax cuts.

 

Yes, and interest rates are rising to slow down the expansion. The tax cuts were not needed for the economy, it was growing fine. There is no doubt whatsoever that the tax cuts were driven by the demands of the donor class who wanted a return on their lobbying money investment. They got it! The made out like bandits. The result has been now to see higher interest rates which is affecting everyone else. Student loans, auto loans, mortgages, business loans, everything,  part of the cost of those tax cuts is higher interest rates for everyone else. 

 

Yes, sooner or later, they would have had to go up anyway, but its hard to argue that the tax cuts helped the economy but didn't increase the need for a rate hike sooner. 

[Magox]

4 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Yes, and interest rates are rising to slow down the expansion. The tax cuts were not needed for the economy, it was growing fine. There is no doubt whatsoever that the tax cuts were driven by the demands of the donor class who wanted a return on their lobbying money investment. They got it! The made out like bandits. The result has been now to see higher interest rates which is affecting everyone else. Student loans, auto loans, mortgages, business loans, everything,  part of the cost of those tax cuts is higher interest rates for everyone else. 

 

Yes, sooner or later, they would have had to go up anyway, but its hard to argue that the tax cuts helped the economy but didn't increase the need for a rate hike sooner. 

 

It's not hard to argue, the economy was lack luster to say the least before Trump and now it's not and the tax cuts, deregulation efforts and the general pro business attitude coming from his administration are the reason for it.

 

And this tax cuts "for the rich" trope is a tired argument and doesn't work with me simply because it's bull ****.   

[Tiberius]

3 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

It's not hard to argue, the economy was lack luster to say the least before Trump and now it's not and the tax cuts, deregulation efforts and the general pro business attitude coming from his administration are the reason for it.

 

And this tax cuts "for the rich" trope is a tired argument and doesn't work with me simply because it's bull ****.   

Oh come on, the donor class got a return on their lobbying investment. The economy has been on the longest bull market in history dating back to Obama's first term, and now we are paying higher interest rates to pay for these tax cuts. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-15/fed-seen-stepping-up-pace-of-rate-hikes-bloomberg-survey-shows

Quote

 

A growing number of economists expect the Federal Reserve to step up the pace of its interest-rate increases this year after congressional passage of a $300 billion government spending package that is seen lifting U.S. economic growth and inflation.

 

 

Lewis Alexander, chief economist at Nomura Securities International Inc., and Greg Daco, Oxford Economics’ chief U.S. economist, were among those who now see four Fed rate hikes in 2018 instead of three, according to a Bloomberg survey of 29 respondents conducted Feb. 12-14. That brought the survey’s median estimate for the upper bound of the central bank’s federal funds rate target to 2.5 percent by year-end. It is currently at 1.5 percent. 

 

 

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Oh come on, the donor class got a return on their lobbying investment. The economy has been on the longest bull market in history dating back to Obama's first term, and now we are paying higher interest rates to pay for these tax cuts. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-15/fed-seen-stepping-up-pace-of-rate-hikes-bloomberg-survey-shows

 

 

 

You're conflating the stock market with the economy.  No economist who doesn't have a partisan bone in them will deny that the economy is growing at a more robust level than before.   Everyone knows that Trump's policies have been much more effective for the economy than Obama's, that's not even up for debate.   At least not by serious thinking people. 

The part you quoted supports my argument.  

[Tiberius]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

 

 

You're conflating the stock market with the economy.  No economist who doesn't have a partisan bone in them will deny that the economy is growing at a more robust level than before.   Everyone knows that Trump's policies have been much more effective for the economy than Obama's, that's not even up for debate.   At least not by serious thinking people. 

The part you quoted supports my argument.  

Oh yes, the tax cuts juiced the economy, but so much that a faster interest rate raise was necessary. Tax cuts for the donor class, higher interest rates for everyone else. 

 

And I never said anything about the stock market, but since you brought it up, stocks are at a historically high price compared to earnings. The next few years do not look so promising if stocks fall back to a more normal level of price to earnings level. 

 

When you say its not up for debate about the economy between Trump and Obama, what exactly are you measuring? Robust level of what? Jobs, GDP? 

[Rob's House]

35 minutes ago, Azalin said:

 

Because he gets a laugh out of people responding to him. He has half the board dancing on strings at his bidding.

He serves a purpose. It's a lot easier to hit home runs when you've got a guy tossing meatballs across the middle of the plate. Same reason CNN puts a weak "Republican" on the panel who will tee it up for the 7 liberal pundits.

[Azalin]

14 minutes ago, Rob's House said:

He serves a purpose. It's a lot easier to hit home runs when you've got a guy tossing meatballs across the middle of the plate. Same reason CNN puts a weak "Republican" on the panel who will tee it up for the 7 liberal pundits.

 

That makes sense. I don't pay attention to CNN either.

[sherpa]

 

Tax cuts didn't "juice the economy." 

Of course they were a positive, but economic activity was increasing with or without that issue.

Tibs, you are one of those guys that I'm not going to do homework for, but the true indicator is wage growth, and wage growth is quite positive.

 

Getting interest rates to a normal level vs economic activity is not only desirable, but after having been at negative rates vis a vis inflation, necessary to allow the Fed to use its most normal weapon to minimize the effects of the next downturn. 

Simply stated, it is quite desirable to have the ten year at 4% or slightly higher, for a number of reasons, none of which are political, which is the stick in your eye you can't seem to remove.

Edited October 15, 2018 by sherpa

[Tiberius]

54 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

Tax cuts didn't "juice the economy." 

Of course they were a positive, but economic activity was increasing with or without that issue.

Tibs, you are one of those guys that I'm not going to do homework for, but the true indicator is wage growth, and wage growth is quite positive.

 

Getting interest rates to a normal level vs economic activity is not only desirable, but after having been at negative rates vis a vis inflation, necessary to allow the Fed to use its most normal weapon to minimize the effects of the next downturn. 

Simply stated, it is quite desirable to have the ten year at 4% or slightly higher, for a number of reasons, none of which are political, which is the stick in your eye you can't seem to remove.

You must agree that the tax cuts put pressure on the fed to raise rates. They are charging Peter (Middle class borrowers) to pay Paul (The Donor class that got tax cuts). 

 

I love how you say the Fed must raise rates to have them ready for next downturn, which I agree with, but what about the Federal budget? Where will they cut taxes come from if deficits go from bad to way worse with an economic slump? 

 

And I never said rates shouldn't go up, just pointing out how they could have risen slower without giving the rich their tax cuts that have ballooned the deficit, AND made the debt more expensive with higher rates! 

[sherpa]

4 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

You must agree that the tax cuts put pressure on the fed to raise rates. They are charging Peter (Middle class borrowers) to pay Paul (The Donor class that got tax cuts). 

 

I love how you say the Fed must raise rates to have them ready for next downturn, which I agree with, but what about the Federal budget? Where will they cut taxes come from if deficits go from bad to way worse with an economic slump? 

 

And I never said rates shouldn't go up, just pointing out how they could have risen slower without giving the rich their tax cuts that have ballooned the deficit, AND made the debt more expensive with higher rates! 

 

I don't agree at all that tax cuts put pressure on the Fed.

That isn't one of the things they look at to execute their mandate, which is clear.

Frankly, I am at a loss to understand your claim that rates could have risen slower, or that tax cuts caused the acceleration.

The Fed has been extremely slow to raise rates, and the tax cut wasn't near the stimulus that QE to infinity presented to a rate hawk.

I think your reasoning is corrupted by your politics.

In fact, I'm certain of it.

[TakeYouToTasker]

5 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

I don't agree at all that tax cuts put pressure on the Fed.

That isn't one of the things they look at to execute their mandate, which is clear.

Frankly, I am at a loss to understand your claim that rates could have risen slower, or that tax cuts caused the acceleration.

The Fed has been extremely slow to raise rates, and the tax cut wasn't near the stimulus that QE to infinity presented to a rate hawk.

I think your reasoning is corrupted by your politics.

In fact, I'm certain of it.

 

Reading his posts are like listening to a dog explain quantum physics.

 

I'm not sure why you're bothering.

[Tiberius]

9 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

I don't agree at all that tax cuts put pressure on the Fed.

That isn't one of the things they look at to execute their mandate, which is clear.

Frankly, I am at a loss to understand your claim that rates could have risen slower, or that tax cuts caused the acceleration.

The Fed has been extremely slow to raise rates, and the tax cut wasn't near the stimulus that QE to infinity presented to a rate hawk.

I think your reasoning is corrupted by your politics.

In fact, I'm certain of it.

Quote

The Federal Reserve raised U.S. interest rates for the third time this year, in a bid to prevent inflation from surging as President Donald Trump's tax cuts fuel economic growth.  

 https://www.thestreet.com/markets/fed-raises-us-interest-rates-as-trump-tax-cuts-heat-up-economy-14724854

 

Quote

Interest rates are likely to increase following enactment of the recent tax reform bill (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act).  Rising interest rates stemming directly from the growth provisions of the tax reform bill would be a positive sign that the tax cut is working to encourage capital formation, and should not be cause for alarm.

https://taxfoundation.org/tax-reform-bill-interest-rates/  <---Very Conservative foundadtion, just to point out the folly of your claim that I am making a partisan point. It's you that are doing that. 

[GG]

8 minutes ago, TakeYouToTasker said:

 

Reading his posts are like listening to a dog explain quantum physics.

 

I'm not sure why you're bothering.

 

I don't understand why people bother at all.

[Tiberius]

Why do those two completely brainwashed idiots feel the need to whine?

[sherpa]

46 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Why do those two completely brainwashed idiots feel the need to whine?

 

Are you completely incapable of considering that your views are foolish?

 

A very minor and justified tax adjustment is a very minor stimulus.

It was something that the Fed would never consider as a stand alone policy to increase the rates they control, which are minor by the way.

You are apparently unaware of what they use and how they use that criteria to execute their mandate.

 

All that aside, a more healthy, growing economy, which is generating wage growth above inflation, a point I made earlier and which you have, seemingly, disregarded, is good for everybody.

 

Your point is akin to stating that a reduction in body temperature and flu symptoms for one suffering from that is a bad thing, 'cause it increases the likelihood they might get out of bed and get into an accident.

 

Here's a clue. A slow growing economy with a healthy demand for capital is a good thing.

Economic activity has far more impact on fed tax revenue than minor, justified, adjustments to taxes.

It also makes for a happier populace, at least the sane ones.

[Deranged Rhino]

1 minute ago, sherpa said:

 

Are you completely incapable of considering that your views are foolish?

 

Yes.

 

He's proved that time and time again for years. He's not a serious person, he's not being honest with you (or anyone - especially himself).