OldTimeAFLGuy Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 1 hour ago, TPS said: Well, I think I called 20K up thread somewhere, in response to someone saying 21K. My view: The market will respond weakly to anything directed at economic stimulus outside of who/what is being impacted by the virus. A payroll tax cut is fine down the line, but not now. Everything they do now must be directed at mitigating the impact from the virus. The Government must cover all related costs--the two weeks of paid time-off; 0% loans to the major industries affected--airlines, travel and tourism in general, etc.; stop-gap the medical costs--covering the costs of testing and care, and making sure the states have all the funds they need. It's impossible to estimate the economic costs of this thing which means complete uncertainty as to forecasting prices, which is why the most important thing is to address restraining the virus. Once the government comes out with proposals that do this, then it will at least provide a little clarity on the economic costs going forward. Once we get to the point where investors believe the government is actually proposing and doing things that will "flatten out the curve" of its growth (the virus), then we should at least see a temporary bottom. So far, they haven't proposed anything like this, so I expect we will bust through my 20K guess.... I was fortunate to put myself in a fairly liquid position (30% equities) coming out of 2019 because I was expecting a typical correction. I will most likely put a chunk back in today (I added some after the February drop putting me at 40%), even though I don't think we've hit bottom as described above, I will move to a 50% position today. ...a very fair and accurate assessment IMO....nicely done.....as you said, PR tax cut makes no sense if folks are in isolation mode with numerous events being cancelled, etc......more disposable income makes no difference....on the mark about the government's role.....a well thought out, comprehensive plan may perhaps allay some fears/panic in the US, but no financial stimulus is going to have a marked effect in a global economy.. ..I'd say <20K is a good bet.......... 20 minutes ago, IDBillzFan said: Thanks, Obama. .....LOL...President Incandescent, our bright light............. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TH3 Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Doc said: And you predicted this? LOL! Not hard to predict that what DT does would end up in a mess....seeing as EVERYTHING he has done for 30 years has left his stakeholders holding the bag while he skates...how does it feel stakeholder? 56 minutes ago, IDBillzFan said: I wish I could say I was surprised to see a leftist cheering on bad news. I wish I could. But I can't. Is it any wonder that when the dust is cleared and the left is barking in full throat, the very best they have to offer this country are two very old, very angry, very rich, very white men? Heyoooo. The downfall of DT is good news bro! 1 hour ago, Deranged Rhino said: But he didn't make money off it because he's TOTALLY telling the truth. I paid off my real estate debt the last three years and maxed out my 401k in cash Getting ready to get back in in a measured way.....looks like I haven't missed anyhting!! Edited March 12, 2020 by TH3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 1 minute ago, TH3 said: I paid off my real estate debt the last three years Why not between 2009-20016? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TH3 Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 (edited) 1 minute ago, Deranged Rhino said: Why not between 2009-20016? My kids were in college....keep trying Edited March 12, 2020 by TH3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, TH3 said: Not hard to predict that what DT does would end up in a mess....seeing as EVERYTHING he has done for 30 years has left his stakeholders holding the bag while he skates...how does it feel stakeholder? So now Trump is responsible for China's ***** up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 Just now, TH3 said: My kids were in college....keep trying I don't have to try. You've exposed yourself as a tiny brained, unpatriotic person long ago. Today removed any doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, TH3 said: The downfall of DT is good news bro! No matter the price, apparently. Not surprising. Hard to remember the last time a Democrat did anything that was for the betterment of the country. Well, they did run Hillary. But it feels more like an unforced error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimeAFLGuy Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 16 minutes ago, Doc said: So now Trump is responsible for China's ***** up. ...on your way out for LoMein tonight?...just askin'.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 1 hour ago, TH3 said: I said 21k I have not put anything in equities since DT got elected.....I figured he would do nothing of substance, drive up the debt and ultimately the market would crash....for Bush...it was massive over leverage in the housing market...for DT - its the CV.... He and Mitch have done nothing of substance other than juice the market....come November even you knuckleheads will have nothing to hold on to....and we will be on to a better place... You missed out on some big gains then. When you cut corp taxes, that is a BIG buy sign... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keepthefaith Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, TPS said: You missed out on some big gains then. When you cut corp taxes, that is a BIG buy sign... Yes me too when I didn't sell a bunch in January when everything in my bones told me to do so. Riding it into the crapper now like many, but will have to go in even greater as the dust settles. Will likely be a long climb back though. Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 48 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said: I don't have to try. You've exposed yourself as a tiny brained, unpatriotic person long ago. Today removed any doubt. You are calling someone else unpatriotic? Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 38 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said: ...on your way out for LoMein tonight?...just askin'.............. The family actually had some Chinese food last night. I'm not a fan of Lo mein by my MIL had some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 19 minutes ago, keepthefaith said: Yes me too when I didn't sell a bunch in January when everything in my bones told me to do so. Riding it into the crapper now like many, but will have to go in even greater as the dust settles. Will likely be a long climb back though. Years. Remember the actual economy was/is very strong other than this blip. If/when the virus gets under control it will be one hot market. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 41 minutes ago, keepthefaith said: Yes me too when I didn't sell a bunch in January when everything in my bones told me to do so. Riding it into the crapper now like many, but will have to go in even greater as the dust settles. Will likely be a long climb back though. Years. We have similar analyses....completely agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted March 12, 2020 Share Posted March 12, 2020 GOOD ADVICE FROM STACY TABB OF BOONDOCK STUDIOS: As people practice social distancing, it is also important to remember the small businesses around you too. Find out if you can purchase from them on line. All the events being shut down had vendors who count on those sales to make it through the year. Sometimes these aren’t just small businesses, they are micro businesses and support only one person. — Remember all of us tiny business owners, if you would. Another suggestion is that if there’s a restaurant or other business you like but don’t want to patronize right now, buy a gift certificate — maybe even online — and you can use it later, but the cash flow will help them now. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keepthefaith Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 1 hour ago, 3rdnlng said: Remember the actual economy was/is very strong other than this blip. If/when the virus gets under control it will be one hot market. Maybe but the economy you speak of is in the rear view mirror. Sharp reductions in consumer and business spending will undoubtedly put us into a recession by 3rd quarter of this year. There will be a lot of businesses hurting or posting lesser results for some time, and they will reduce hiring and payrolls. It'll take a long time for earnings to rebound and for the market to trade anywhere near a 20PE again. It's taken 7 years or so for each of the past 2 recessions for the S&P to get back to even after the onset of those bear markets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 28 minutes ago, keepthefaith said: Maybe but the economy you speak of is in the rear view mirror. Sharp reductions in consumer and business spending will undoubtedly put us into a recession by 3rd quarter of this year. There will be a lot of businesses hurting or posting lesser results for some time, and they will reduce hiring and payrolls. It'll take a long time for earnings to rebound and for the market to trade anywhere near a 20PE again. It's taken 7 years or so for each of the past 2 recessions for the S&P to get back to even after the onset of those bear markets. Yes, but those recessions came about because of a weak economy which this isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 37 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said: Yes, but those recessions came about because of a weak economy which this isn't. Are you suggesting there won't be a recession because of this? If so, I'd like to make a bet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keepthefaith Posted March 13, 2020 Share Posted March 13, 2020 1 hour ago, 3rdnlng said: Yes, but those recessions came about because of a weak economy which this isn't. With super low interest rates and low taxes and ongoing big gov spending stimulus we should be able to rebound if the virus passes but there are so many moving parts in the economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted March 13, 2020 Author Share Posted March 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, keepthefaith said: With super low interest rates and low taxes and ongoing big gov spending stimulus we should be able to rebound if the virus passes but there are so many moving parts in the economy. It's a timing issue. The longer this lasts, the higher the probability of a downturn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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