The Trump Economy

[TPS]

2 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

I was really looking for him to back up his post which is a normal request to make to a person making claims.

I figured, and I was curious as well. By a fluke, I came across that, which certainly looks like the source. 

[GG]

30 minutes ago, TPS said:

I think the analyst toward the end of that piece has it right.  There are concerns (rightly) about the leveraged loan market, but, as you suggest, much of that debt was driven by the cost (and tax) consideration and the related stock buybacks.  The easiest way to pump up stock prices is to substitute debt for equity--it was not a "need" consideration (for example, Apple didn't need to issue debt, they were pushed by shareholders to do so). We'll probably see a move in the other direction (equity for debt) over the next 5 years or so.

 

Minor correction. Apple raised debt not because the shareholders demanded it, but because it was cheaper to raise debt to pay the shareholders than to bring the overseas cash back and pay the exorbitant taxes.  Now that the tax law changed, they'll be using their cash to pay shareholders and pay down the debt.

[plenzmd1]

23 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

I was really looking for him to back up his post which is a normal request to make to a person making claims.

Sorry did not include that link. I have been opposed to the tax cuts from day 1. I really believe the decrease in revenues and increase in expenditures had been foretelling a slowing down in the economy. 

 

I would have been more accepting of the tax cuts has there also been a corresponding decrease in spending   Still felt there was no need to juice an economy that was moving along at a nice steady clip. 

[GG]

14 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

Sorry did not include that link. I have been opposed to the tax cuts from day 1. I really believe the decrease in revenues and increase in expenditures had been foretelling a slowing down in the economy. 

 

I would have been more accepting of the tax cuts has there also been a corresponding decrease in spending   Still felt there was no need to juice an economy that was moving along at a nice steady clip. 

 

Look at the OP.  The economy was not really moving at a steady clip.  It was moving barely past a dead cat bounce level.  It bottomed out 7 years prior and had nowhere to go but up, given the stimulous that was thrown at it.  What you've seen since Trump's inauguration has been true economic growth, not a just a juiced up rise in asset prices.

[plenzmd1]

7 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Look at the OP.  The economy was not really moving at a steady clip.  It was moving barely past a dead cat bounce level.  It bottomed out 7 years prior and had nowhere to go but up, given the stimulous that was thrown at it.  What you've seen since Trump's inauguration has been true economic growth, not a just a juiced up rise in asset prices.

I don’t know that a dead cat bounce lasts 7 years. That is a steady growth. And the demand for people with skills has been there since 2011. So while I buy that there has been an increase in job creation, believe it is at the non - skilled level. 

 

And I do believe the economy was juiced at a time it did not need to be. Next year should be very telling, but the indicators are not promising right now. 

 

 

BTW, trying to kill time at my sisters house and not have to talk till we go bowling, so a debate is wlecomed?

 

Edited November 22, 2018 by plenzmd1

[TPS]

37 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Look at the OP.  The economy was not really moving at a steady clip.  It was moving barely past a dead cat bounce level.  It bottomed out 7 years prior and had nowhere to go but up, given the stimulous that was thrown at it.  What you've seen since Trump's inauguration has been true economic growth, not a just a juiced up rise in asset prices.

It’s been juiced up by a fiscal stimulus under Trump, which is starting to fade as well. 

[GG]

6 minutes ago, TPS said:

It’s been juiced up by a fiscal stimulus under Trump, which is starting to fade as well. 

 

Not arguing about the tax cut juice, but he also rolled back regulations and the proverbial red tape to get the real economic juices going.

 

We've been down this road before.   The summer of recovery finally came when you know who exited stage left.

[TPS]

3 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Not arguing about the tax cut juice, but he also rolled back regulations and the proverbial red tape to get the real economic juices going.

 

We've been down this road before.   The summer of recovery finally came when you know who exited stage left.

So are you predicting that real growth will continue at 3% or better next year?

[GG]

14 minutes ago, TPS said:

So are you predicting that real growth will continue at 3% or better next year?

 

Possible but unlikely with the growing headwinds.  

 

My point is that the growth rate doesn't matter as much as the general business environment to operate in.   It's pretty astounding that in a period of unprecedented stimuli coming off the worst downturn since the Depression, the economy couldn't grow above 3% on a sustained basis.

[BeginnersMind]

8 hours ago, GG said:

 

Just for kicks, what would be the incentive for someone with excess cash to lend it out to a complete stranger, knowing there's roughly a historic 5% default rate among companies, and a higher rate among individuals?

 

Love?

[DC Tom]

1 hour ago, BeginnersMind said:

 

Love?

 

That would be funny, coming from someone who wasn't stupid enough to seriously suggest it.

[BeginnersMind]

1 hour ago, DC Tom said:

 

That would be funny, coming from someone who wasn't stupid enough to seriously suggest it.

 

I was trying to come up with an answer to GG’s excellent question, which has no answer. 

 

Except love. It’s all you need. You can make it out of nothing at all. It hurts. But you give it a bad name. 

[/dev/null]

16 minutes ago, BeginnersMind said:

 

I was trying to come up with an answer to GG’s excellent question, which has no answer. 

 

the answer to a question which has no answer is

 

 

 

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

49 minutes ago, /dev/null said:

 

the answer to a question which has no answer is

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

 

 

And I clicked to reveal the hidden content.   Clearly, I am in a turkey coma. I'll never make that mistake again.

[Deranged Rhino]

(But they will continue to do so anyway)

 

 

[Foxx]

On 11/22/2018 at 1:17 PM, DC Tom said:

 

And which definition are you using?

sorry, i missed this.

 

being that i believe it is the greatest sin ever comprised by man, against man, i'm guessing the one Tibs gave is adequate.

[TPS]

15 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said:

(But they will continue to do so anyway)

 

 

They will certainly increase rates next month, but it's quite possible they will back off a bit next year as growth slows in 2019.

 

This will be an interesting quarter. It looks like consumers (via debt) will make up for the slowdown in  business spending, but the impact will be offset by a rise in imports, since the majority of consumer products are produced overseas. 

[Foxx]

As Predicted, GOP Tax Cuts Prompt Record Tax Revenues

Quote

Remember when Democrats mocked last year’s tax-cut legislation? And Nancy Pelosi called the tax breaks for Americans “crumbs”?

But President Trump and congressional Republicans said they would ignite a booming economy and actually increase federal tax collections from greater economic activity including more consumer spending, business investments, higher wages and even employee bonuses.
 
Well, guess what? Just 47 weeks after Trump put his flamboyant signature on the bill, it’s all happening.

Unemployment is at an historic low. Employment is at an all-time high. Wagers are growing after years of stagnation.

And now from all that increased economic activity, the federal government has just reported historic record tax revenues in October, the first month of the new fiscal year, of $252,692,000,000.

That’s more than $11.4 billion above revenue for October of last year, which was the previous record tax revenue for an October.

And it did this by collecting more than $3 billion less in personal income taxes, thanks to the tax cuts. ...

 

 

Feds Collect Record Taxes in October; Still Run $100B Deficit

Quote

... Although the total federal taxes collected this October set a record, the individual income taxes that the federal government collected in October did not set a record. This October, the Treasury collected $128,866,000,000 in individual income taxes. In October 2017, the Treasury collected $131,056,520,000 (in constant October 2018 dollars).

Corporation income tax receipts, however, were significantly higher this October than they were in October 2017. This year, the Treasury collected $8,000,000,000 in corporation income taxes in October. Last year, it collected $3,823,060,000 (in constant October 2018 dollars).

The $8 billion in corporation income tax revenues the Treasury collected this October is the largest amount since October 2015, when the Treasury collected $10,893,630,000 (in constant October 2018 dollars) in corporation income taxes. ...

 

Edited November 25, 2018 by Foxx

[Buffalo_Gal]

 

[Warren Zevon]