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The Trump Economy


GG

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1 hour ago, GG said:

 

And here I thought you were being sarcastic.

 

If your question was serious, then it's a moronic premise.  Do you honestly believe that not having a central bank is what caused the government overthrows? 

 

Central banks are useful in developed or developing economies, not in places where it's still acceptable to wipe your poop with your hands.

second evasion. we are through here. happy thanksgiving to you and yours. :beer:

 

27 minutes ago, /dev/null said:

Who could have thought this might happen after decade of ZIRP?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/21/theres-a-9-trillion-corporate-debt-bomb-bubbling-in-the-us-economy.html

 

 

 

Emoji_Icon_-_Thinking_large.png?v=151325

 

au contraire my friend. NIRP has yet to be put in play. it has been floated as a trial balloon in some western countries already.

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30 minutes ago, Foxx said:

second evasion. we are through here. happy thanksgiving to you and yours. :beer:

 

Evading what?  There's nothing to discuss because your premise is ridiculous.  None of these countries hosted a Summer or Winter Olympics.  Why aren't you using that as the measuring stick.

 

Not having a central bank is probably reason #323,134 why the regimes were overthrown

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1 hour ago, BeginnersMind said:

 

Conspiracy board that this is, these things get taken seriously on PPP. There is an overepresented group here that is the crazed uncle at Thanksgiving who will never stop talking about he has it all figured out on his conspiracy or latest investment and finally wears you down to an exhausted “fine” so you can eat your pumpkin pie in peace.

 

 

Are we?  Or is that what we want you to believe?

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17 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

 

Are we?  Or is that what we want you to believe?

 

 

My uncle is usually pushing gold. It's always about to "pop" because [meltdown scenario of the day--he leans towards the military industrial complex...a little out of date but he's older...the younger kids are all about the Q]. 

 

He was riding high in 2008. I am sad that he hasn't had that moment since then. But he'll be right again one of these years. 

 

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Let me get this straight..capital spending below what it was pre tax cut, GDP growth in Q4 will be lower than all of 2016 and 2017, deficit ballooning out of control, earnings growth expected to  4-6% next year..in line with most years post 2010, except for last years swelled by huge tax cuts.

 

Job growth back to where it was in 2106-2017..below 2014-15. 

 

Wages have seen a decent increase this year at 3.1%..but inflation at 2.7% so not sure there is a huge benefit there..

 

Market down 6% since the cuts...and somehow we have a better economy under Trump?

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15 hours ago, Foxx said:

usury is probably the greatest sin ever comprised by man, against man. there will come a day, when at the end of a long rope you will find many a bankster.

 

Just for kicks, what would be the incentive for someone with excess cash to lend it out to a complete stranger, knowing there's roughly a historic 5% default rate among companies, and a higher rate among individuals?

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21 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

Let me get this straight..capital spending below what it was pre tax cut, GDP growth in Q4 will be lower than all of 2016 and 2017, deficit ballooning out of control, earnings growth expected to  4-6% next year..in line with most years post 2010, except for last years swelled by huge tax cuts.

 

Job growth back to where it was in 2106-2017..below 2014-15. 

 

Wages have seen a decent increase this year at 3.1%..but inflation at 2.7% so not sure there is a huge benefit there..

 

Market down 6% since the cuts...and somehow we have a better economy under Trump?

Your link doesn't work.

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16 hours ago, Foxx said:

usury is probably the greatest sin ever comprised by man, against man. there will come a day, when at the end of a long rope you will find many a bankster.

And laws against "usury" held back economic development for centuries. What good is money if it can't flow to those that know how to use it to make prosperity? 

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2 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

And laws against "usury" held back economic development for centuries. What good is money if it can't flow to those that know how to use it to make prosperity? 

Tibs, look up the definition of the word, usury.

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4 minutes ago, Foxx said:

Tibs, look up the definition of the word, usury.

Usury (/ˈjuːʒəri/) is, as defined today, the practice of making unethical or immoral monetary loans that unfairly enrich the lender. Originally, usury meant interest of any kind. A loan may be considered usurious because of excessive or abusive interest rates or other factors.

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1 minute ago, Tiberius said:

Usury (/ˈjuːʒəri/) is, as defined today, the practice of making unethical or immoral monetary loans that unfairly enrich the lender. Originally, usury meant interest of any kind. A loan may be considered usurious because of excessive or abusive interest rates or other factors.

'nuf said.

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3 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

Let me get this straight..capital spending below what it was pre tax cut, GDP growth in Q4 will be lower than all of 2016 and 2017, deficit ballooning out of control, earnings growth expected to  4-6% next year..in line with most years post 2010, except for last years swelled by huge tax cuts.

 

Job growth back to where it was in 2106-2017..below 2014-15. 

 

Wages have seen a decent increase this year at 3.1%..but inflation at 2.7% so not sure there is a huge benefit there..

 

Market down 6% since the cuts...and somehow we have a better economy under Trump?

I think 2018 overall should still exceed 3%. The 4th Q will come down to how much debt consumers want to burn for Christmas.  2019 looks to be in line with what I expected...

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20 hours ago, /dev/null said:

Who could have thought this might happen after decade of ZIRP?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/21/theres-a-9-trillion-corporate-debt-bomb-bubbling-in-the-us-economy.html

 

 

I think the analyst toward the end of that piece has it right.  There are concerns (rightly) about the leveraged loan market, but, as you suggest, much of that debt was driven by the cost (and tax) consideration and the related stock buybacks.  The easiest way to pump up stock prices is to substitute debt for equity--it was not a "need" consideration (for example, Apple didn't need to issue debt, they were pushed by shareholders to do so). We'll probably see a move in the other direction (equity for debt) over the next 5 years or so.

 

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