Livinginthepast Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Whats most maddening about this data is that it shows how fine the margins are in this league between losers and playoff teams. In many of the Bills games in the past 3 years they have had chances to win games and blown the opportunities because of missed tackles, bad throws, drops etc. There have also been many moments where incompetent coaching has cost them. Bad play calls, burning timeouts, failure to challenge bad ref calls or challenging good calls (because you are listening to a spiritual adviser) . I like love to see how many games the Bills would have won with a HC who is a shrewd game manager. Both Rex and Marrone were pretty awful at this. In any case its part of the cruel nature of being a Bills fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 (edited) So this is interesting, but with the offense you should adjust for our garbage time scores as (BisonMan pointed out) and also account for us blowing out the 49ers as those artificially increase our ppg and ultimately paint a different picture of our prolific offense. We often look at data to further prove our points, rather than look at everything in it's totality. The Defense was not good enough, but the offense really wasn't either. Out of our points scored, were there differences in points before half and after the half, what was it like in the 4th quarter; along with TOP. I have ahunch that when we really dig into the offense, the data will show that it also wasn't as rosey and great as everyone thinks it was.... I hear you, but what you are suggesting is not accurate. You can't take out the Niners game...the Niners played 15 other teams, you are not taking out the scores in their average, its part of everyones season. 80 games were played against the 5 worst defenses in the NFL worse than ours for instance...you are not backing out all those games in everyones else's scoring. You see, you can't remove games unless there is a very unusual circumstance. The Brady less pats game is just that. NOBODY thinks we shut out Brady who led his team to around 30 points per game in his starts plus dropped 41 on us (one of the worst D's in the NFL) a few weeks later. This is a rare case where a valid argument can be made that this game missing its too best players in Brady and Gronk are not an indication of the quality of our defense. The only reason we remove week 17 is because the convo is about Taylor and he did not play that game, therefore its not relevant to the offensive scoring under a Taylor led team. ALL teams in the NFL get games that are blow out wins, blow out losses with late scoring, games against terrible D's, good D's etc. It balances itself out for the most part in everyones averages. And...we scored at least 25 points in TEN of the 15 games that Taylor started. The only loss we were blown out in and still scored at least 25 points was the Pats game and we ONLY scored 7 points in the 4th quarter. Hardly a case for a lot of "garbage time" scoring. Added note: In the other losses where we scored at least 25 points, we never lost by more than 6 points (a single score)...further illustrating that its a myth that our scoring this year was skewed through garbage time production. Edited January 18, 2017 by Alphadawg7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 What is even more interesting to me about what you just said is the fact you said THREE years. Taylor and Rex's D were only here 2 years. 2016: 5th highest scoring team in the league in the games Tyrod started. 27th in the league in points allowed outside the fluke Pats game with no Brady. 2014: The year before Rex and Taylor arrived...Terrible Offense, very good Defense. So basically, if you did this over the last 2 years, your analysis would further show how much of the problem was our D. It would show our offense has played well enough to win more and defense has played well enough to win less. The discrepancy would be even wider I would think given the severe drop off in D since that 2014 season and the significant increase in scoring since that Orton led 2014 season. I think it is safe to say, working from memory, that in the Ryan years our scoring was that of an over 9 win team, with an uptick the second year. And, that the defense was more in the line with a 7.5 win team, and a down turn in year 2. Not what we expected from our defense eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I think it is safe to say, working from memory, that in the Ryan years our scoring was that of an over 9 win team, with an uptick the second year. And, that the defense was more in the line with a 7.5 win team, and a down turn in year 2. Not what we expected from our defense eh? If you remove week 17 this year from the offense because Taylor did not play and then remove the week 4 Pats game from the defense because Brady and Gronk were not there, then I would think your data would show us over 10 wins on offense, and under 7 wins on defense. Just my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 (edited) I hear you, but what you are suggesting is not accurate. You can't take out the Niners game...the Niners played 15 other teams, you are not taking out the scores in their average, its part of everyones season. 80 games were played against the 5 worst defenses in the NFL worse than ours for instance...you are not backing out all those games in everyones else's scoring. You see, you can't remove games unless there is a very unusual circumstance. The Brady less pats game is just that. NOBODY thinks we shut out Brady who led his team to around 30 points per game in his starts plus dropped 41 on us (one of the worst D's in the NFL) a few weeks later. This is a rare case where a valid argument can be made that this game missing its too best players in Brady and Gronk are not an indication of the quality of our defense. The only reason we remove week 17 is because the convo is about Taylor and he did not play that game, therefore its not relevant to the offensive scoring under a Taylor led team. ALL teams in the NFL get games that are blow out wins, blow out losses with late scoring, games against terrible D's, good D's etc. It balances itself out for the most part in everyones averages. And...we scored at least 25 points in TEN of the 15 games that Taylor started. The only loss we were blown out in and still scored at least 25 points was the Pats game and we ONLY scored 7 points in the 4th quarter. Hardly a case for a lot of "garbage time" scoring. Added note: In the other losses where we scored at least 25 points, we never lost by more than 6 points (a single score)...further illustrating that its a myth that our scoring this year was skewed through garbage time production. For everyone's reference: When a team scores this numbers of pts, won-loss record, win this % of the time 26-28 pts 138-55 .715; 22-25 pts 131-96 .577; 18-21pts 87-134 .394; 15-17 53-137 .279 And of course, the flip side is also true if you give up 22-25 pts you only win .423 of time If you remove week 17 this year from the offense because Taylor did not play and then remove the week 4 Pats game from the defense because Brady and Gronk were not there, then I would think your data would show us over 10 wins on offense, and under 7 wins on defense. Just my guess yes that is correct 10.020, if you throw out 49ers game we are at 9.641. Edited January 18, 2017 by horned dogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 (edited) For everyone's reference: When a team scores this numbers of pts, won-loss record, win this % of the time 26-28 pts 138-55 .715; 22-25 pts 131-96 .577; 18-21pts 87-134 .394; 15-17 53-137 .279 And of course, the flip side is also true if you give up 22-25 pts you only win .423 of time yes that is correct 10.020, if you throw out 49ers game we are at 9.641. But you can't throw out the Niners game, 15 other teams played the Niners. 80 games were played against teams that gave up as many points or close to as many points as the niners. The only reason to remove the Pats game is because that is massive anomaly given the circumstances of no Brady and Gronk and a dramatic shift in the results (shut out versus giving up 41 points to them when they did play us a few weeks later). And we averaged over 26 points per game this year in the 15 Taylor starts. So that 138-55 record with a .715 win % is relevant to the Taylor led offense this year that also had a OC change week 3 and tons of injuries. Great data analysis by the way. Edited January 18, 2017 by Alphadawg7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 (edited) But you can't throw out the Niners game, 15 other teams played the Niners. 80 games were played against teams that gave up as many points or close to as many points as the niners. The only reason to remove the Pats game is because that is massive anomaly given the circumstances of no Brady and Gronk and a dramatic shift in the results (shut out versus giving up 41 points to them when they did play us a few weeks later). I just removed it for reference since someone above was questioning it. Thanks. Edited January 18, 2017 by horned dogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I just removed it for reference since someone above was questioning it. Thanks. Gotcha, and again great analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 If you remove week 17 this year from the offense because Taylor did not play and then remove the week 4 Pats game from the defense because Brady and Gronk were not there, then I would think your data would show us over 10 wins on offense, and under 7 wins on defense. Just my guess If you remove all the game the Bills won, they would be winless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed83HOF Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 (edited) So I looked myself when you look at a quarter by quarter breakdown: 1 2 3 4 OT Final Buff 78 99 110 112 0 399 Opp 79 125 97 94 3 398 We are a .500 team. We were basically tied at the end of the first, we would fall behind at the half 204-177, by the end of the 3rd we were behind 301-287 and the 4th is where it gets interesting and that is where you need to look at garbage time numbers we scored: NYJ 7 (1:22 left), Mia 8 (0:19s left + 2pts), Pats 8 (0:33s left + 2pts), NYJ 7 (0:43s left). I will leave SF out of this example: Q4 = 112pts - 30 garbage time points = 82 pts in Q4 1 2 3 4 OT Final Buff 78 99 110 82 0 369 Opp 79 125 97 94 3 398 So going into Q4, with the garbage time adjustments; we didn't keep pace with scoring in the 4th... Also the 49ers game, we scored 21 in the 4th. If you want to take that out the numbers look like this: 1 2 3 4 OT Final Buff 78 99 110 61 0 348 Opp 79 125 97 94 3 398 The games were generally over by the half and by the end of the 3rd we were done. Yes the D stunk, but the offense didn't keep pace in the 4th quarter... I wonder what our TOP and 3 and outs looked like quarter by quarter... Edited January 18, 2017 by Reed83HOF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarRifleman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Good teams find ways to win close games. Bad teams do not. It's really that simple. That IS about it. What more proof do we need than seeing the Bills the last 17 yrs? And there's lots of scenarios with bad teams that play into this. They play just good enough to lose. They have the lead going into the 4th qtr, but can't hold, usually for reasons of their own mistakes, and on, and on, and on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saxum Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Well stated. I agreed with Whaley that "we're close". But new HC, new OC, new DC, and possibly new QB is not close - its a tear it down and rebuild approach. Confusing off season so far. Yes I agree. I have the same issue I had with Rex - there were coaches under contract and the new head coach made little effort to determine if they were good coaches at their position let down by talent / scheme / injuries. The problem there is no negative for the head coach spending team's money. To set an example to players who are potentially cut by cuttting coaches who get paid for full contract is wrong. New head coach should have evaluated staff before bringing in fresh bodies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marty McFly Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 If you remove all the game the Bills won, they would be winless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts