What if every one-score game went the other way?

[hondo in seattle]

Look at the teams at the top in the alternative universe.

 

Mostly bad/crap teams.

 

The experiment just shows what was said up-thread; bad teams lose the close ones. Good teams perform when necessary to win the close ones.

 

That's not a "coin toss" result as suggested by the author.

 

That's a "good beats bad in close games" result.

 

True enough.

 

But we won our wins by a lot and lost our losses by a little.

 

And that's better than winning our wins by a little and losing our losses by a lot.

[MAJBobby]

Go back with Bills for the last 5 years you will see similar results.

 

So we have been "close" for such a long time

[Nanker]

What time is The Bills game on this week? (in this alternate universe)

[The Big Cat]

My takeaway: The Falcons and Pats* were the only teams in the NFL definitively better than their competition on a consistent basis.

[vorpma]

Good teams find ways to win close games. Bad teams do not. It's really that simple.

[DasNootz]

Good teams win by more than a TD (or are in complete control of the game in the 4th quarter and give up garbage time stats) on a regular basis.
Above Avg teams find ways to win

Avg teams are 500
Below Avg teams find ways to lose (see Buffalo)
Bad teams lose by more than a TD on a regular basis

 

We are somewhere between a Below Avg and Avg team with delusions that we are Avg to Above Avg.

Edited January 18, 2017 by DasNootz

[bobobonators]

My takeaway: The Falcons and Pats* were the only teams in the NFL definitively better than their competition on a consistent basis.

Agreed.

[vorpma]

 

True enough.

 

But we won our wins by a lot and lost our losses by a little.

 

And that's better than winning our wins by a little and losing our losses by a lot.

Same old song, different "mediocre" season! Same old Bills!

[The Big Cat]

Agreed.

 

...and that the Rams and the Jets were consistently worse.

 

YET WE STILL MANAGED TO FIND A WAY TO DROP TWO...TWO!!!...GAMES TO THE JETS!!

[ricojes]

I wouldn't go as far as saying the Bills were a 13-3 team this year, but I do believe they had enough talent to make the playoffs. I wouldn't expect a big run, most likely one and out, but definitely could have made the tournament.

[billykaykay]

I think you'd really have to analyze each game to see whether they are really "1 score" games. There are a lot of TDs that are scored during garbage time where the team with a 2+ score lead is allowing the other team to move the ball and even score to eat up clock. My feeling is that several of the Bills' 1-score games ended up like that. Bills-Jets (1) the Bills scored with 1:22 remaining. Bill-Dolphins (1) same story. Bills-Steelers same story.

 

Get rid of garbage time scores and I think that stat doesn't really add up because teams that are leading will let you move/score to eat up clock. Statistically, their odds of winning the game are better when they let you do that.

I agree. The king of garbage time was Bortles & the Jags.

[Alphadawg7]

Couple of additional points to add to this:

 

Regarding Offense:

1. Bills average PPG on season: 24.9 Tied for 10th with Pittsburgh (15 TT starts, 1 EJ manuel Start)

2. PPG with Taylor as starting QB: 26.4 which puts them at 5th in the NFL

3. Number of times we scored at least 25 with taylor: 10 times in 15 games.

4. We did all this scoring without Watkins for much of the year, and in the 7 games he did play he was significantly hampered by his injury in several. Woods played most the season hurt. McCoy missed a game and large parts of 2 others. Eric Wood was lost for the season mid year and had other injuries on the OL. We fired an OC in week 2 and promoted a first time OC. Clay missed some time. And we had a coaching staff that most feel was terrible.

 

Regarding Defense:

1. Bills average Points scored against on season: Tied for 16th at 23.6

2. ANAMOLY GAME: Week 4 Pats game they score Zero without Brady.

3. Bills average Points scored against if you remove the first Pats game: 25.2 ranking them 27th in the NFL

4. Had Brady played week 4, if he scores 30 against us (he put up 41 in week 8 on us) drops one more spot to 27th.

 

NOTE: If you ignore the week 4 Brady-less anomaly, the Combined record of the 5 teams who gave up more points per game than us are SF, SD, Jets, Cle, and Saints for a combined record of: 20-60 for a .250 winning %. (EDIT: Originally put 80 losses, but it was 80 total games played, and 60 losses so I made the correction).

 

Summary:

 

1. You don't win close games when your defense gives up nearly as many points as you score. Under Taylor and ignoring the Pats game which everyone knows is not a shut out if Brady plays, the Offense averaged 26.4 points per game and the Defense surrendered 25.2 points per game.

 

2. Scoring is not our problem. Do you know how ELITE your offense has to be to keep wining consistently while surrendering over 25 points per game?

 

3. We had a bottom 5 defense last year. 2 biggest causes for that were injuries and a terrible system put into place by the Ryan Bros. Hurt even more after we lost our best on field communicator in AW for the rest of the season.

 

Conclusion:

 

FIX THE D and we win a lot more games this past year and help is already on the way. We have a new HC who is better suited for the players we have on the defensive side of the ball. Shaq (who looked very promising) will be here through camp and ready to start the season. Rags will finally debut after missing this year and looking like a nice pick before the injury. AW may or may not be back, but we will certainly be addressing the S position in FA and/or the Draft. The system will be less complicated, so communication issues on the field should significantly increase and cut down on blown assignments. Taylor is not our issue, the defense was and anyone denying that is lying to sell their agenda of wanting an Elite QB (which don't grow on trees).

Edited January 18, 2017 by Alphadawg7

[Fadingpain]

Go back with Bills for the last 5 years you will see similar results.

 

So we have been "close" for such a long time

The vast majority of the league is perpetually "close."

 

There are only 3 or 4 lights out good teams each year, if that, and usually only 2 or 3 or 4 embarrassingly bad teams each year, if that.

 

The rest of the entire league is somewhere in the middle...."close."

 

What Doug Whaley doesn't get is that "close on paper" in the NFL doesn't mean close. It means "not one of the few contenders, like most of the league."

 

There's a difference.

[DrDawkinstein]

The vast majority of the league is perpetually "close."

 

There are only 3 or 4 lights out good teams each year, if that, and usually only 2 or 3 or 4 embarrassingly bad teams each year, if that.

 

The rest of the entire league is somewhere in the middle...."close."

 

What Doug Whaley doesn't get is that "close on paper" in the NFL doesn't mean close. It means "not one of the few contenders, like most of the league."

 

There's a difference.

 

I dont know about that. If there are 3 lights out good teams, but 12 teams make the playoffs, then we should be close to being 1 of those 9 "decent" teams that makes it.

[Reed83HOF]

Go back with Bills for the last 5 years you will see similar results.

 

So we have been "close" for such a long time

This is our exercise every year in the offseason; if we just kicked another FG or made that one play....

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Couple of additional points to add to this:

 

Regarding Offense:

1. Bills average PPG on season: 24.9 Tied for 10th with Pittsburgh (15 TT starts, 1 EJ manuel Start)

2. PPG with Taylor as starting QB: 26.4 which puts them at 5th in the NFL

3. Number of times we scored at least 25 with taylor: 10 times in 15 games.

4. We did all this scoring without Watkins for much of the year, and in the 7 games he did play he was significantly hampered by his injury in several. Woods played most the season hurt. McCoy missed a game and large parts of 2 others. Eric Wood was lost for the season mid year and had other injuries on the OL. We fired an OC in week 2 and promoted a first time OC. Clay missed some time. And we had a coaching staff that most feel was terrible.

 

Regarding Defense:

1. Bills average Points scored against on season: Tied for 16th at 23.6

2. ANAMOLY GAME: Week 4 Pats game they score Zero without Brady.

3. Bills average Points scored against if you remove the first Pats game: 25.2 ranking them 27th in the NFL

4. Had Brady played week 4, if he scores 30 against us (he put up 41 in week 8 on us) drops one more spot to 27th.

 

NOTE: If you ignore the week 4 Brady-less anomaly, the Combined record of the 5 teams who gave up more points per game than us are SF, SD, Jets, Cle, and Saints for a combined record of: 20-80 for a .200 winning %.

 

Summary:

 

1. You don't win close games when your defense gives up nearly as many points as you score. Under Taylor and ignoring the Pats game which everyone knows is not a shut out if Brady plays, the Offense averaged 26.4 points per game and the Defense surrendered 25.2 points per game.

 

2. Scoring is not our problem. Do you know how ELITE your offense has to be to keep wining consistently while surrendering over 25 points per game?

 

3. We had a bottom 5 defense last year. 2 biggest causes for that were injuries and a terrible system put into place by the Ryan Bros. Hurt even more after we lost our best on field communicator in AW for the rest of the season.

 

Conclusion:

 

FIX THE D and we win a lot more games this past year and help is already on the way. We have a new HC who is better suited for the players we have on the defensive side of the ball. Shaq (who looked very promising) will be here through camp and ready to start the season. Rags will finally debut after missing this year and looking like a nice pick before the injury. AW may or may not be back, but we will certainly be addressing the S position in FA and/or the Draft. The system will be less complicated, so communication issues on the field should significantly increase and cut down on blown assignments. Taylor is not our issue, the defense was and anyone denying that is lying to sell their agenda of wanting an Elite QB (which don't grow on trees).

I have researched this and come up a chart based on the last 3 years (over 800 games). It tells you what % of the time you win when you score X number of pts in a game. When I apply the chart to the Bills scoring, I get a team who's offense played well enough to win 9.477 games. Likewise, when applied to points allowed, our defense played well enough to win 7.425 games. For reference the Pats O is 10.988 wins, their defense is even better at 11.191 wins.

Edited January 18, 2017 by horned dogs

[Reed83HOF]

I think you'd really have to analyze each game to see whether they are really "1 score" games. There are a lot of TDs that are scored during garbage time where the team with a 2+ score lead is allowing the other team to move the ball and even score to eat up clock. My feeling is that several of the Bills' 1-score games ended up like that. Bills-Jets (1) the Bills scored with 1:22 remaining. Bill-Dolphins (1) same story. Bills-Steelers same story.

 

Get rid of garbage time scores and I think that stat doesn't really add up because teams that are leading will let you move/score to eat up clock. Statistically, their odds of winning the game are better when they let you do that.

 

This is true...

[chaccof]

Good teams find ways to win close games. Bad teams do not. It's really that simple.

Bingo!

[Reed83HOF]

Couple of additional points to add to this:

 

Regarding Offense:

1. Bills average PPG on season: 24.9 Tied for 10th with Pittsburgh (15 TT starts, 1 EJ manuel Start)

2. PPG with Taylor as starting QB: 26.4 which puts them at 5th in the NFL

3. Number of times we scored at least 25 with taylor: 10 times in 15 games.

4. We did all this scoring without Watkins for much of the year, and in the 7 games he did play he was significantly hampered by his injury in several. Woods played most the season hurt. McCoy missed a game and large parts of 2 others. Eric Wood was lost for the season mid year and had other injuries on the OL. We fired an OC in week 2 and promoted a first time OC. Clay missed some time. And we had a coaching staff that most feel was terrible.

 

Regarding Defense:

1. Bills average Points scored against on season: Tied for 16th at 23.6

2. ANAMOLY GAME: Week 4 Pats game they score Zero without Brady.

3. Bills average Points scored against if you remove the first Pats game: 25.2 ranking them 27th in the NFL

4. Had Brady played week 4, if he scores 30 against us (he put up 41 in week 8 on us) drops one more spot to 27th.

 

NOTE: If you ignore the week 4 Brady-less anomaly, the Combined record of the 5 teams who gave up more points per game than us are SF, SD, Jets, Cle, and Saints for a combined record of: 20-80 for a .200 winning %.

 

Summary:

 

1. You don't win close games when your defense gives up nearly as many points as you score. Under Taylor and ignoring the Pats game which everyone knows is not a shut out if Brady plays, the Offense averaged 26.4 points per game and the Defense surrendered 25.2 points per game.

 

2. Scoring is not our problem. Do you know how ELITE your offense has to be to keep wining consistently while surrendering over 25 points per game?

 

3. We had a bottom 5 defense last year. 2 biggest causes for that were injuries and a terrible system put into place by the Ryan Bros. Hurt even more after we lost our best on field communicator in AW for the rest of the season.

 

Conclusion:

 

FIX THE D and we win a lot more games this past year and help is already on the way. We have a new HC who is better suited for the players we have on the defensive side of the ball. Shaq (who looked very promising) will be here through camp and ready to start the season. Rags will finally debut after missing this year and looking like a nice pick before the injury. AW may or may not be back, but we will certainly be addressing the S position in FA and/or the Draft. The system will be less complicated, so communication issues on the field should significantly increase and cut down on blown assignments. Taylor is not our issue, the defense was and anyone denying that is lying to sell their agenda of wanting an Elite QB (which don't grow on trees).

 

So this is interesting, but with the offense you should adjust for our garbage time scores as (BisonMan pointed out) and also account for us blowing out the 49ers as those artificially increase our ppg and ultimately paint a different picture of our prolific offense. We often look at data to further prove our points, rather than look at everything in it's totality. The Defense was not good enough, but the offense really wasn't either. Out of our points scored, were there differences in points before half and after the half, what was it like in the 4th quarter; along with TOP. I have ahunch that when we really dig into the offense, the data will show that it also wasn't as rosey and great as everyone thinks it was....

[Alphadawg7]

I have researched this and come up a chart based on the last 3 years (over 800 games). It tells you how many games you should win when you score X number of pts in a game. When I apply the chart to the Bills scoring, I get a team who's offense played well enough to win 9.477 games. Likewise, when applied to points allowed, our defense played well enough to win 7.425 games. For reference the Pats O is 10.988 wins, their defense is even better at 11.191 wins.

 

What is even more interesting to me about what you just said is the fact you said THREE years. Taylor and Rex's D were only here 2 years.

 

2016: 5th highest scoring team in the league in the games Tyrod started. 27th in the league in points allowed outside the fluke Pats game with no Brady.

2014: The year before Rex and Taylor arrived...Terrible Offense, very good Defense.

 

So basically, if you did this over the last 2 years, your analysis would further show how much of the problem was our D. It would show our offense has played well enough to win more and defense has played well enough to win less. The discrepancy would be even wider I would think given the severe drop off in D since that 2014 season and the significant increase in scoring since that Orton led 2014 season.

Edited January 18, 2017 by Alphadawg7