DrDawkinstein Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Saw this on Reddit today. Someone flipped the results of every 1-score game in 2016 to see how that would affect standings. Interesting to see how that would have worked out for the Bills.... https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/5oongv/what_if_every_onescore_2016_nfl_game_went_the/ I'm probably wasting valuable offseason content, but I decided to see how much of a difference it'd make if all W/Ls from one-score (7 points or less margin) were reversed in outcome. All teams listed by the amount of wins they'd gain/lose. Mostly did this since pundits like Bill Barnwell frequently say that NFL teams tend to win 50% of their one-score games in the longrun, and I feel like this illustrates how different the postseason would be if the coinflips went differently. Chargers +7 – 12-4 Bills + 6 – 13-3 Jaguars +6 – 9-7 Eagles +5 – 12-4 Bears +5 – 8-8 Panthers +5 – 11-5 49ers +4 – 6-10 Browns +4 - 5-11 Bengals +4 – 10-5-1 Saints +3 – 10-6 Cardinals +3 – 10-5-1 Vikings +2 – 10-6 Jets +1 – 6-10 Rams +1 – 5-11 Broncos +1 – 10-6 Falcons 0 – 11-5 Packers -1 – 9-7 Ravens -1 – 7-9 Colts -1 – 7-9 Titans -1 - 8-8 Seahawks -1 – 9-6-1 Buccs -2 – 7-9 Steelers -2 – 9-7 Redskins -2 – 6-9-1 Patriots -3 – 11-5 Lions -3 – 6-10 Chiefs -3 – 9-7 Giants -5 – 6-10 Cowboys -5 – 8-8 Dolphins -6 – 4-12 Texans -6 – 3-13 Raiders -7 – 5-11 AFC Playoff seeds would be 1: Bills 2: Chargers 3: Bengals 4: Jaguars 5: Patriots 6: Broncos Honestly not sure about tiebreakers for the NFC South NFC Playoff Seeds would be 1: Eagles 2: Falcons/Panthers 3: Cardinals 4: Vikings 5: Panthers/Falcons 6: Saints Divisions NFC West - Cardinals 10-5-1, Seahawks 9-6-1, 49ers 6-10, Rams 5-11 NFC East - Eagles 12-4, Cowboys 8-8, Giants 6-10, Redskins 6-9-1, NFC North - Vikings 10-6, Packers 9-7, Bears 8-8, Lions 6-10 NFC South - Falcons 11-5, Panthers 11-5, Saints 10-6, Buccs 7-9 AFC West - Chargers 12-4, Broncos 10-6, Chiefs 9-7, Raiders 5-11 AFC East - Bills 13-3, Patriots 11-5, Jets 6-10, Dolphins 4-12 AFC North - Bengals 10-5-1 Steelers 9-7, Ravens 7-9, Browns 5-11 AFC South - Jaguars 9-7, Titans 8-8, Colts 7-9, Texans 3-13 Go Bills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark80 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Good teams find ways to win close games. Bad teams do not. It's really that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 Good teams find ways to win close games. Bad teams do not. It's really that simple. For sure. I just thought it was funny/interesting that when a 3rd party does a "what would Opposite World look like?", of course the Bills are the best in the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 (edited) Good teams find ways to win close games. Bad teams do not. It's really that simple. BUT...its more than that...sometimes teams just capture some type of in-season magic that is never duplicated again... The 15-1 Panthers from 2 years ago...this year's Raiders....this year's Dolphins...that 13-3 Bears Team under Jauron, that "Cardiac Pack" team under Don Majkowski back in the day... Coming back constantly in the 4th quarter is NOT something that can be consistently counted on season after season...look at what happened to the Panthers this year...a lot of the same players, but different results. Dolphins and Raiders are likely set up for falls next year in similar games...eventually you simply trend back towards the mean in these situations and games that you won a season ago start becoming losses. Edited January 18, 2017 by matter2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 (edited) BUT...its more than that...sometimes teams just capture some type of in-season magic that is never duplicated again... The 15-1 Panthers from 2 years ago...this year's Raiders....this year's Dolphins...that 13-3 Bears Team under Jauron, that "Cardiac Pack" team under Don Majkowski back in the day... Coming back constantly in the 4th quarter is NOT something that can be consistently counted on season after season...look at what happened to the Panthers this year...a lot of the same players, but different results. Dolphins and Raiders are likely set up for falls next year in similar games...eventually you simply trend back towards the mean in these situations and games that you won a season ago start becoming losses. Well stated. I agreed with Whaley that "we're close". But new HC, new OC, new DC, and possibly new QB is not close - its a tear it down and rebuild approach. Confusing off season so far. Edited January 18, 2017 by bobobonators Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark80 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 BUT...its more than that...sometimes teams just capture some type of in-season magic that is never duplicated again... The 15-1 Panthers from 2 years ago...this year's Raiders....this year's Dolphins...that 13-3 Bears Team under Jauron, that "Cardiac Pack" team under Don Majkowski back in the day... Coming back constantly in the 4th quarter is NOT something that can be consistently counted on season after season...look at what happened to the Panthers this year...a lot of the same players, but different results. Dolphins and Raiders are likely set up for falls next year in similar games...eventually you simply trend back towards the mean in these situations and games that you won a season ago start becoming losses. There are always outliers, but for the most part good teams win close games. Good teams have good QBs who can get you that game winning drive. Good teams have good coaches who can manage the clock and allow that drive to take place. Good teams have fewer stupid key penalties which keep the opposition in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 The data supports Whaley's notion that the Bills are "not far away" and is a further indictment of Rex and his staff. Coaching matters, particularly in close games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BisonMan Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I think you'd really have to analyze each game to see whether they are really "1 score" games. There are a lot of TDs that are scored during garbage time where the team with a 2+ score lead is allowing the other team to move the ball and even score to eat up clock. My feeling is that several of the Bills' 1-score games ended up like that. Bills-Jets (1) the Bills scored with 1:22 remaining. Bill-Dolphins (1) same story. Bills-Steelers same story. Get rid of garbage time scores and I think that stat doesn't really add up because teams that are leading will let you move/score to eat up clock. Statistically, their odds of winning the game are better when they let you do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Look at the teams at the top in the alternative universe. Mostly bad/crap teams. The experiment just shows what was said up-thread; bad teams lose the close ones. Good teams perform when necessary to win the close ones. That's not a "coin toss" result as suggested by the author. That's a "good beats bad in close games" result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iinii Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I think you'd really have to analyze each game to see whether they are really "1 score" games. There are a lot of TDs that are scored during garbage time where the team with a 2+ score lead is allowing the other team to move the ball and even score to eat up clock. My feeling is that several of the Bills' 1-score games ended up like that. Bills-Jets (1) the Bills scored with 1:22 remaining. Bill-Dolphins (1) same story. Bills-Steelers same story. Get rid of garbage time scores and I think that stat doesn't really add up because teams that are leading will let you move/score to eat up clock. Statistically, their odds of winning the game are better when they let you do that. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 There are always outliers, but for the most part good teams win close games. Good teams have good QBs who can get you that game winning drive. Good teams have good coaches who can manage the clock and allow that drive to take place. Good teams have fewer stupid key penalties which keep the opposition in the game. By any definition, the Dolphins were NOT a good team this year. Advanced Metrics, actual statistics, net points, team rankings...all were below to far below average...that team did FAR better than what could have been expected from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 (edited) Good teams find ways to win close games. Bad teams do not. It's really that simple. It's even simpler. Bad defenses. Edited January 18, 2017 by PromoTheRobot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K D Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 A little better defense and a little better 2 min offense would have done wonders for this team. But let's blow it all up and start from scratch on both offense and defense. Oops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 Look at the teams at the top in the alternative universe. Mostly bad/crap teams. The experiment just shows what was said up-thread; bad teams lose the close ones. Good teams perform when necessary to win the close ones. That's not a "coin toss" result as suggested by the author. That's a "good beats bad in close games" result. Look at the bottom of this new list though. Texans, Raiders, Dolphins. All "playoff" teams, but teams that didn't really belong in the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Look at the bottom of this new list though. Texans, Raiders, Dolphins. All "playoff" teams, but teams that didn't really belong in the playoffs. Texans made it due to their weak division and defense...Dolphins...well, I'm still scratching my head on that one...this is one where analyzing statistics and advanced metrics all fail to explain how they could be a playoff team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragonborn10 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 In the past, the best predictor of a non-playoff team making the playoffs the following year was the number of single digit losses. Not sure if that still holds true. I would say after the QB situation, it is injuries, luck, and schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Turnover differential is usually a good indicator of success. 7 of top 11 teams in turnover differential made playoffs. Buffalo was one of 4 teams that didnt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heitz Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I just thought it was funny/interesting that when a 3rd party does a "what would Opposite World look like?", of course the Bills are the best in the league. In opposite world we're probably freaking perennial AFC Champions, multiple Super Bowl winners! (Though maybe in opposite world we'd want to win the Pro Bowl? Not sure on that part). Also, we'd all be like "Hellllllo Vargas!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 My first thought mirrors some others... Maybe Whaley has grounds for saying we're close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Look at the teams at the top in the alternative universe. Mostly bad/crap teams. The experiment just shows what was said up-thread; bad teams lose the close ones. Good teams perform when necessary to win the close ones. That's not a "coin toss" result as suggested by the author. That's a "good beats bad in close games" result. Exactly. Just another way of validating th adage "You are what your record says you are." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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