JohnC Posted January 28, 2017 Posted January 28, 2017 Reading your post, I agree with all of it except for your support of Whaley. Frankly, it's hard to understand because you list GREAT reasons for not liking the job he has done. I consider Whaley a horrible GM for the very reasons that you list. Let's just hope he doesn't grab a DB at 10, or even trade up for one. The Bills need more picks, not less. Btw, if they stay at 10 and get Watson I will be fine with that. You? I have been pummeled on this board for promoting drafting a qb with a first round pick. My feeling is if this bedraggled organization identifies a qb that they believe can eventually be a franchise qb then they should select the player. If they believe that it is too high for the pick then use some flexibility and creativity and trade down and hedge the qb selection. What you are going to hear from many of the posters is that this year has a poor crop of qbs. Let's wait until next year. That's not my song and I will not sing it. Let's review history. Was Carr considered a top tier prospect? No. Was Russell Wilson considered a top tier prospect? No. Was Dak considered a top tier prospect? No. Was Bridgewater considered a top tier prospect? No. Was Dalton a top tier prosect? No. Was Kirk Cousins a top tier prospect? No All these listed qbs would have made a dramatic impact on our irrelevant franchise. The wait until next year crowd will point out that Wentz, Goff and Lynch have not turned out as expected and were wasted high picks. That is such an absurd position to take for judging that position. It takes time and development. I would take all three qbs and would be ecstatic. Having TT as a bridge quarterback is a reason to get a good qb prospect on board now because you don't have to play the rookie qb right away. You can bring the qb along at a pace that is appropriate for that particular prospect. The notion that this anemic franchise should maneuver in this draft by trading down to acquire picks for next year makes little sense to me. The same people who are promoting next year's class will then next year scrutinize then to the point of diminishing them as prospects and again waiting for another next year's class of qb prospects. The cycle of inaction will continue to repeat itself. The problem with that mentality of hesitation is if even next year's class is better it doesn't mean that you will be in position to select that enticing player. You know what they say: Don't let perfection be the enemy of the good. With respect to your question on Watson I would say yes. If it is too high then trade down a little. If you have a conviction on him then don't play around and get caught with another team jumping ahead, just do it for heaven's sake. And with respect to your belief that this short sighted organization shouldn't take a DB my response is that it probably will. The generation of futility will continue because that is what we do. There is more comfort in being satisfied with mediocrity rather than being bold to pursue excellence.
Kirby Jackson Posted January 28, 2017 Posted January 28, 2017 What you are going to hear from many of the posters is that this year has a poor crop of qbs. Let's wait until next year. That's not my song and I will not sing it. Let's review history. Was Carr considered a top tier prospect? No. Was Russell Wilson considered a top tier prospect? No. Was Dak considered a top tier prospect? No. Was Bridgewater considered a top tier prospect? No. Was Dalton a top tier prosect? No. Was Kirk Cousins a top tier prospect? No All these listed qbs would have made a dramatic impact on our irrelevant franchise. The wait until next year crowd will point out that Wentz, Goff and Lynch have not turned out as expected and were wasted high picks.I don't want to keep going round and round but if we are going to include Dak and Wilson and Carr, we can't exclude Pat White, Kevin O'Connell and John Beck. Just swinging is not the answer. There have been 32 picks (after the top 3) in the top 2 rounds since 2006 and just Carr and Flacco are franchise guys. You identify and target the QB(s) that you think is the guy and go get him. If they believe it's Watson go get him. If they believe it's Trubisky or Kizer, get them. It has nothing to do with the position and EVERYTHING to do with the player. I'm of the belief that 3 or 4 QBs (Darnold, Rosen, Lamar Jackson and Jake Browning) in the 2018 draft are better than all of the 2017 candidates. You don't just draft a guy (especially early) because "it's time to take a swing." That's how you get EJ. If you like a guy and believe he's the answer get him. We can't just keep using the 7 guys over the last 16 years that are franchise QBs that the Bills had a shot at in the draft. 213 QBs were drafted in that timeframe. Swinging randomly isn't a plan; it's a waste of resources. Get THE guy not A guy.
Maury Ballstein Posted January 28, 2017 Posted January 28, 2017 Trubisky over Lamar Jackson You think Lamars game will work in the NFL ? Rich mans pat white no ?
Kirby Jackson Posted January 28, 2017 Posted January 28, 2017 (edited) Trubisky over Lamar Jackson You think Lamars game will work in the NFL ? Rich mans pat white no ? I do (but admittedly I don't love Trubisky). He's a glorified game manager to me and we have that already. He's a freak and has a big arm too. He needs to develop and has a low floor. If you are swinging for the fences though he has a very high ceiling. I like Darnold and Rosen the best of all of them. When all is said and done I think that they go 1-2 next year. Edited January 28, 2017 by Kirby Jackson
Maury Ballstein Posted January 28, 2017 Posted January 28, 2017 (edited) Game manager dropped 3 consecutive 400 plus yard games with 11 Td's. I don't agree. OJ Howard is awesome. I agree with your take though, if Williams/Tru and the safeties are gone the trade back works for me. Edited January 28, 2017 by Ryan L Billz
Kirby Jackson Posted January 28, 2017 Posted January 28, 2017 (edited) Game manager dropped 420 plus yard games with 11 Td's in 3 week period. I don't agree. OJ Howard is awesome. I agree with your take though, if Williams/Tru and the safeties are gone the trade back works for me. He just plays a game manager style to me. He plays in that spread and distributes the ball. He has one year of starting experience. I just wouldn't make the investment (a 2018 1st) that it will take for a guy with a lot of questions. His ceiling to me isn't much higher than what we are getting. Tyrod has given them 47 TDs, 12 INTs and 230 yards a game in 29 starts. I don't see him as definitely better. I'm targeting the 2018 guys and selling out for them. I think that there are some tiers of players in this draft and think that the Bills are just inside of the elite tier (if a QB or 2 go). Allen, Garrett, Adams, Hooker, Williams, Foster and Davis are the best players in the draft in my opinion. The 2 RBs are up there too but don't think either will go in the top 10. I suppose Jacksonville could take one. Someone will take a CB in the top 10 and if a QB goes then the Bills will get one of those guys. Edited January 28, 2017 by Kirby Jackson
Coach Tuesday Posted January 28, 2017 Posted January 28, 2017 Howard will land with a patient team like the Giants or Ravens and play at a high level for a decade.
JohnC Posted January 28, 2017 Posted January 28, 2017 He just plays a game manager style to me. He plays in that spread and distributes the ball. He has one year of starting experience. I just wouldn't make the investment (a 2018 1st) that it will take for a guy with a lot of questions. His ceiling to me isn't much higher than what we are getting. Tyrod has given them 47 TDs, 12 INTs and 230 yards a game in 29 starts. I don't see him as definitely better. I'm targeting the 2018 guys and selling out for them. I think that there are some tiers of players in this draft and think that the Bills are just inside of the elite tier (if a QB or 2 go). Allen, Garrett, Adams, Hooker, Williams, Foster and Davis are the best players in the draft in my opinion. The 2 RBs are up there too but don't think either will go in the top 10. I suppose Jacksonville could take one. Someone will take a CB in the top 10 and if a QB goes then the Bills will get one of those guys. I strenuously disagree with your (seems to me) scoffing at Trubisky as simply being a game manager. A game manager caliber of qb who is an accurate passer, make reads and spreads the ball all over the field is not something to dismiss, It is something that we should covet. You don't think that Watson or Clay or Woods would be happy with a qb who can consistently throw accurately and go through progressions? You don't think these receivers would love to have a qb that can make anticipatory throws? In this constant quest for the ideal good qbs get bypassed by us at the expense of retaining a status quo status at that position that gets us nowhere. I would cherish a Dalton caliber of qb taking the snaps for us. Is he elite? Absolutely not. But he is the caliber of qb who can make this team currently assembled into a playoff team. I'm not a TT basher. We are fortunate to have him. There are occasions when he does rise to the occasion and can make scintillating plays. But that isn't the norm. When you watch a TT game and compare it to a game quaterbacked by a good qb there is a qualitative difference that is clearly evident. There is a limitation to is game that I don't believe he can overcome. As far as I am concerned if Trubisky is on the board and he bypasses him for a more highly ranked DB he should be fired for dereliction of duty. As far as I am concerned if Whaley doesn't select a reasonable qb prospect in this draft he should be fired for gross negligence. If you don't seek solutions you will never get solutions. In last year's draft Whaley bypassed Prescott in the third round in order to draft an immature and lazy DT who wasn't ready for the pro ranks. This lackadaisical attitude toward the most important position in the game rankles me. I'm getting tired of it. No more excuses!
Kirby Jackson Posted January 28, 2017 Posted January 28, 2017 (edited) I strenuously disagree with your (seems to me) scoffing at Trubisky as simply being a game manager. A game manager caliber of qb who is an accurate passer, make reads and spreads the ball all over the field is not something to dismiss, It is something that we should covet. You don't think that Watson or Clay or Woods would be happy with a qb who can consistently throw accurately and go through progressions? You don't think these receivers would love to have a qb that can make anticipatory throws? In this constant quest for the ideal good qbs get bypassed by us at the expense of retaining a status quo status at that position that gets us nowhere. I would cherish a Dalton caliber of qb taking the snaps for us. Is he elite? Absolutely not. But he is the caliber of qb who can make this team currently assembled into a playoff team. I'm not a TT basher. We are fortunate to have him. There are occasions when he does rise to the occasion and can make scintillating plays. But that isn't the norm. When you watch a TT game and compare it to a game quaterbacked by a good qb there is a qualitative difference that is clearly evident. There is a limitation to is game that I don't believe he can overcome. As far as I am concerned if Trubisky is on the board and he bypasses him for a more highly ranked DB he should be fired for dereliction of duty. As far as I am concerned if Whaley doesn't select a reasonable qb prospect in this draft he should be fired for gross negligence. If you don't seek solutions you will never get solutions. In last year's draft Whaley bypassed Prescott in the third round in order to draft an immature and lazy DT who wasn't ready for the pro ranks. This lackadaisical attitude toward the most important position in the game rankles me. I'm getting tired of it. No more excuses! We have a QB that averaged 230 yards a game and had 47 TDs and 12 INTs in 29 starts. I don't see Trubisky as definitely better and would not invest the 10th pick, my 2018 first and more to get him. Compare Tyrod's last 29 starts to Dalton or aSmith or Tannehill or Flacco. We are already getting that production!!! There is no need to try use 2+ 1sts for what we have. That's makes less than zero sense. The ONLY thing that we are seeking is a franchise guy. Were you irate in the 3rd screaming for Dak or is this hindsight? No one identified him as what he was or he wouldn't have went in the 3rd!! Edited January 28, 2017 by Kirby Jackson
JohnC Posted January 28, 2017 Posted January 28, 2017 We have a QB that averaged 230 yards a game and had 47 TDs and 12 INTs in 29 starts. I don't see Trubisky as definitely better and would not invest the 10th pick, my 2018 first and more to get him. Compare Tyrod's last 29 starts to Dalton or aSmith or Tannehill or Flacco. We are already getting that production!!! There is no need to try use 2+ 1sts for what we have. That's makes less than zero sense. The ONLY thing that we are seeking is a franchise guy. Were you irate in the 3rd screaming for Dak or is this hindsight? No one identified him as what he was or he wouldn't have went in the 3rd!! I'm not suggesting moving up for any qb. I am emphatically stating that if Trubisky should fall to us that we should take him. Also, I wouldn't be hesitant to take Watson at the ten spot but would rather trade down and get him at a lower spot if possible. I was not advocating for Dak in the third round last year but I was advocating for Carr in a trade down in the first round and I was hoping that Country Nix would have taken either Russell Wilson or Cousins instead of trading up in the third round for an ineffectual track football player. Those weren't hindsight decisions---they were real time preferences. Any of those preferences would have had a profound positive effect on our bedraggled franchise. Don't you agree?
Kirby Jackson Posted January 28, 2017 Posted January 28, 2017 (edited) I'm not suggesting moving up for any qb. I am emphatically stating that if Trubisky should fall to us that we should take him. Also, I wouldn't be hesitant to take Watson at the ten spot but would rather trade down and get him at a lower spot if possible. I was not advocating for Dak in the third round last year but I was advocating for Carr in a trade down in the first round and I was hoping that Country Nix would have taken either Russell Wilson or Cousins instead of trading up in the third round for an ineffectual track football player. Those weren't hindsight decisions---they were real time preferences. Any of those preferences would have had a profound positive effect on our bedraggled franchise. Don't you agree? I certainly agree. I just want to make sure that we aren't looking back on who worked and saying "we should have taken that guy." There's a ton of that on here and it's not realistic. We can't just focus on the guys that worked while ignoring the guys that didn't. The trick is to identify the guy and get him. Your odds increase drastically in the 1st 3 picks. 2018 appears to have up to 4 guys that will go in the top 10. I've advocated trading back this year to get another pick in 2018. I like those prospects better anyways. If I have 2 1sts in that draft I also have the ammo to go get one of the guys that I think will be a franchise QB. It's not about taking a chance it's about getting THE guy. Trubisky isn't going to get past 5. It's multiple 1sts to get him. If I believed that he was THE guy I'd be all for it. I don't think that he's better than TT, Dalton, Tannehill, Flacco and Smith. That's the average starter tier. If we were to try to get him it would probably cost 10, our 2nd and 1st in 2018. I, for one, believe that the Bills are a better team with Tyrod, Mike Williams, Budda Baker (as an example) and a 2018 1st than Trubisky. Edited January 28, 2017 by Kirby Jackson
Maury Ballstein Posted January 28, 2017 Posted January 28, 2017 (edited) I certainly agree. I just want to make sure that we aren't looking back on who worked and saying "we should have taken that guy." There's a ton of that on here and it's not realistic. We can't just focus on the guys that worked while ignoring the guys that didn't. The trick is to identify the guy and get him. Your odds increase drastically in the 1st 3 picks. 2018 appears to have up to 4 guys that will go in the top 10. I've advocated trading back this year to get another pick in 2018. I like those prospects better anyways. If I have 2 1sts in that draft I also have the ammo to go get one of the guys that I think will be a franchise QB. It's not about taking a chance it's about getting THE guy. Trubisky isn't going to get past 5. It's multiple 1sts to get him. If I believed that he was THE guy I'd be all for it. I don't think that he's better than TT, Dalton, Tannehill, Flacco and Smith. That's the average starter tier. If we were to try to get him it would probably cost 10, our 2nd and 1st in 2018. I, for one, believe that the Bills are a better team with Tyrod, Mike Williams, Budda Baker (as an example) and a 2018 1st than Trubisky. Agree to disagree. Don't want to see another snap from TT. Trubisky will be a rich mans Dalton. Flacco-ish for sure. Jmo. Edited January 28, 2017 by Ryan L Billz
Kirby Jackson Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 (edited) Agree to disagree. Don't want to see another snap from TT. Trubisky will be a rich mans Dalton. Flacco-ish for sure. Jmo. I know that you don't want TT. I'm saying if you stack him side-by-side to all of those guys it's remarkably similar. That's not advocating to pick up the option or not. It's just adding perspective. As an example over the last 2 years Tannehill has 45 TDs & 24 INTs, Dalton 50 TDs & 15 INTs, TT 47 TDs & 12 INTs. Those guys have all played 29 games. Tannehill is 14-15, TT 15-14 and Dalton 16-12-1. Flacco is similar too but with many more INTs. He has played 26 games but if you average it out to 29 games you are looking at 12-17 with 43.5 TDs and just over 30 INTs. Alex Smith over 29 games would be roughly 39 TDs and 14 INTs. His record is much better than the others. I don't see a guy that upgrades us this year. If they do, go for it. Don't just draft a guy because it's time. That's been my whole point. That's how you get EJ. If they are sold on a guy, go for it. I don't see that guy. Edited January 31, 2017 by Kirby Jackson
Augie Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 (edited) I know that you don't want TT. I'm saying if you stack him side-by-side to all of those guys it's remarkably similar. That's not advocating to pick up the option or not. It's just adding perspective. As an example over the last 2 years Tannehill has 45 TDs & 24 INTs, Dalton 50 TDs & 15 INTs, TT 47 TDs & 12 INTs. Those guys have all played 29 games. Tannehill is 14-15, TT 15-14 and Dalton 16-12-1. Flacco is similar too but with many more INTs. He has played 26 games but if you average it out to 29 games you are looking at 12-17 with 43.5 TDs and just over 30 INTs. I don't see a guy that upgrades us this year. If they do, go for it. Don't just draft a guy because it's time. That's been my whole point. That's how you get EJ. If they are sold on a guy, go for it. I don't see that guy. I find those numbers to be very interesting. Edited January 29, 2017 by Augie
Kirby Jackson Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 (edited) I find those numbers to be very interesting.I was going to dig further to see what the top guys and bottom guys look like by comparison. I'd venture to say that the top guys have more TDs with not a lot of picks and the bottom guys have a bad TD to INT ratio. There's also a gunslinger tier in there with guys like Jameis that have a lot of TDs and a lot of INTs. It is just intutitive though. I'm watching Kansas and Kentucky and don't feel like doing the research. Edited January 29, 2017 by Kirby Jackson
Augie Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 I was going to dig further to see what the top guys and bottom guys look like by comparison. I'd venture to say that the top guys have more TDs with not a lot of picks and the bottom guys have a bad TD to INT ratio. There's also a gunslinger tier in there with guys like Jameis that have a lot of TDs and a lot of INTs. It is just intutitive though. I'm watching Kansas and Kentucky and don't feel like doing the research. I hope they both lose! It's been a rough hoops season for me. Watching movies and burning kabobs because the wife heads to Boston tomorrow, I'll be in Nashville for the week, and somehow I feel better throwing away cooked food. Odd, I know, but some will get picked at.
Kirby Jackson Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 (edited) I hope they both lose! It's been a rough hoops season for me. Watching movies and burning kabobs because the wife heads to Boston tomorrow, I'll be in Nashville for the week, and somehow I feel better throwing away cooked food. Odd, I know, but some will get picked at.I made kabobs last night. I kind of fee the same way!! I will cook something because I have to and eat a little just so it doesn't go bad prior. It feels less wasteful. Have a safe trip!! Edited January 29, 2017 by Kirby Jackson
Augie Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 (edited) I made kabobs last night. I kind of fee the same way!! I will cook something because I have to and eat a little just so it doesn't go bad prior. It feels less wasteful. Have a safe trip!!Ahh, but MY kabobs will have that slight hint of freshly burnt hair smell as a result of the chicken drippings from the previous grill use, and flames leading up that could be seen from space, and a slight bald spot on my wrist. This kind of thing can happen with meals cooked with the intent of throwing away..... And, on a related note, I hear OJ Howard likes kabobs. So there! (OK, I tried.) Edited January 29, 2017 by Augie
Formerly Allan in MD Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 I disagree. You don't draft a QB just to draft a QB. You draft a QB when the time is right and when you have a foundation on offense to support him. If you go by that notion that you're suggesting 1)you're spending high round draft picks that most likely won't contribute immediately or ever 2) you prevent any of the QBs on the roster from developing with a loaded QB corps (see NYJ) 3) you're drafting a QB that you might not necesssarily like or one that doesn't fit your system. When you haven't had a franchise quarterback in eons the time is right.
#34fan Posted January 29, 2017 Posted January 29, 2017 (edited) When you haven't had a franchise quarterback in eons the time is right. That kind of thinking got us EJ and the Jets Geno Smith... There's too much good stuff in this draft to waste a #1 on a POSSIBLE franchise QB.... Better to load up on talent this year, then pull the trigger in a better draft. Edited January 29, 2017 by #34fan
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