Schefter says decision is made - Tyrod is gone

[Pete]

If we don't extend Tyrod, will we get a compensatory pick for him? That would be at least a 3rd rounder IMO

[Dragonborn10]

benching him for the final told us all we needed to know.

What did it tell us? Please enlighten us?

[Sisyphean Bills]

 

Yeah I didn't love Lynch as a prospect but his tools are outstanding......and if they had drafted him they would be in a much more understandable position wrt letting Tyrod go.

 

Lynch is a beast of an athlete with a great arm and, in theory at least, he would appear to be a fit in the current offense.

 

I'm definitely not in the trade-up mode this year either.........there are some toolsy QB's in this draft but nobody that just jumps off the screen as a franchise changer.

 

We do have Cardale on the roster, and he was taken just after Dak Prescott in the draft. So the narrative coming from the football department could be that he's just as good and the ticket to punch moving forward.

 

I seem to recall Donahoe's gang feeling the pressure in a similar situation, and the reaction then was to dump Bledsoe, trot JP Losman out as the uncontested savior, and declare victory.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

This whole Taylor thing would be surprising if Whaley wasn't just AWFUL wrt evaluating QB's.

 

I think Whaley could get lucky and find a QB using a more passive approach........like finding a Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson on day 3 of a draft.......but when the chips are down and you need to draft a rookie QB in round 1 to start right away..........I think his bad eyesight wrt QB position is a huge problem for this organization.

 

This team has defied great odds by missing the playoffs for nearing two straight decades.......and they do so by continually making un-sound decisions. Dropping Taylor without a better solution behind him would be one of the more notably dumb things they've done in that 2 decades.

 

I know it's bad form to "bump" my own posts, but it seems a propos:

 

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/191405-drafting-a-qb-learning-from-the-past/?p=4202387

 

You say Whaley is awful with regard to evaluating QB. Whoever made the choice in 2013 (Nix, Whaley, Marrone), essentially Nix had placed them in the untenable situation of having to draft a QB by his neglect of the position during his entire tenure here, and by ditching Fitz. That given, what QB in the 2013 draft class was better than Manuel? One could argue for Glennon, perhaps, but Tampa moved on from him pretty quickly. I think they chose the guy they perceived as having the highest potential ceiling and ignored his low potential floor. (Glennon has a higher floor, but looked as though he had a lower ceiling at the time). I'd also like to point out that the Bills Director of College Scouting got the boot after that. Coincidence?

 

The point of my post is that across the league, teams hit on about 50% of players drafted at slots 11-20 in the draft - and that's by a very generous definition of "hit on". So either all teams suck at QB evaluation, or it's a genuinely tough job. It appalls me when people are all "Whaley should be fired because Manuel was a bust". If Whaley should be fired for the roster, it should be for not drafting another QB in 2014 and 2015.

 

You say Whaley might get lucky on Day 3, rounds 4-7. But all teams who try that (good and bad at QB e v a l) have an aggregated 7% success rate in those rounds. So if Whaley sucks, presumably his odds are lower.

 

It seems to me the more tenuous a guy is at evaluating a position, the better off he is taking shots in the first few rounds where the overall talent level is higher (provided they don't try to outsmart the world and reach)

Edited January 7, 2017 by Hapless Bills Fan

[Maury Ballstein]

I know it's bad form to "bump" my own posts, but it seems a propos:

 

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/191405-drafting-a-qb-learning-from-the-past/?p=4202387

 

You say Whaley is awful with regard to evaluating QB. Whoever made the choice in 2013 (Nix, Whaley, Marrone), essentially Nix had placed them in the untenable situation of having to draft a QB by his neglect of the position during his entire tenure here, and by ditching Fitz. That given, what QB in the 2013 draft class was better than Manuel? One could argue for Glennon, perhaps, but Tampa moved on from him pretty quickly. I think they chose the guy they perceived as having the highest potential ceiling and ignored his low potential floor. (Glennon has a higher floor, but looked as though he had a lower ceiling at the time). I'd also like to point out that the Director of College Scouting got the boot after that. Coincidence?

 

The point of my post is that across the league, teams hit on about 50% of players drafted at slots 11-20 in the draft - and that's by a very generous definition of "hit on". So either all teams suck at QB evaluation, or it's a genuinely tough job. It appalls me when people are all "Whaley should be fired because Manuel was a bust". If Whaley should be fired, it would be for not drafting another QB in 2014 and 2015.

 

You say Whaley might get lucky on Day 3, rounds 4-7. But all teams who try that (good and bad at QB e v a l) have an aggregated 7% success rate in those rounds. So if Whaley sucks, presumably his odds are lower. It seems to me the more tenuous a guy is at evaluating a position, the better off he is taking shots in the first few rounds where the overall talent level is higher (provided they don't try to outsmart the world and reach)

Schop and Bulldog said Nix picked EJ.......Rex picked Tyrod.....now it's Whaleys turn to pick one.

 

Flame away Brandon/Whaley truthers.

[hondo in seattle]

If we have to pay him anyway, keep him.

 

We have a new HC coming, get his opinion.

 

We don't have anyone better - until we do TT is the starter.

[K-9]

Schop and Bulldog said Nix picked EJ.......Rex picked Tyrod.....now it's Whaleys turn to pick one.

Flame away Brandon/Whaley truthers.

Schop and Bulldog are wrong. Whaley had been the GM in everything but title going back to August of '12 when the scouting season started in earnest and he was in the Kirk chair for the '13 draft. And he flatly admitted he was wrong on EJ.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

I know it's bad form to "bump" my own posts, but it seems a propos:

 

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/191405-drafting-a-qb-learning-from-the-past/?p=4202387

 

You say Whaley is awful with regard to evaluating QB. Whoever made the choice in 2013 (Nix, Whaley, Marrone), essentially Nix had placed them in the untenable situation of having to draft a QB by his neglect of the position during his entire tenure here, and by ditching Fitz. That given, what QB in the 2013 draft class was better than Manuel? One could argue for Glennon, perhaps, but Tampa moved on from him pretty quickly. I think they chose the guy they perceived as having the highest potential ceiling and ignored his low potential floor. (Glennon has a higher floor, but looked as though he had a lower ceiling at the time). I'd also like to point out that the Bills Director of College Scouting got the boot after that. Coincidence?

 

The point of my post is that across the league, teams hit on about 50% of players drafted at slots 11-20 in the draft - and that's by a very generous definition of "hit on". So either all teams suck at QB evaluation, or it's a genuinely tough job. It appalls me when people are all "Whaley should be fired because Manuel was a bust". If Whaley should be fired for the roster, it should be for not drafting another QB in 2014 and 2015.

 

You say Whaley might get lucky on Day 3, rounds 4-7. But all teams who try that (good and bad at QB e v a l) have an aggregated 7% success rate in those rounds. So if Whaley sucks, presumably his odds are lower.

 

It seems to me the more tenuous a guy is at evaluating a position, the better off he is taking shots in the first few rounds where the overall talent level is higher (provided they don't try to outsmart the world and reach)

 

My point wasn't that Whaley was likely to find a QB in the middle rounds but that the was so bad at evaluating them that he was likely going to need A LOT more luck than many evaluators would to find one.

 

But you certainly miss 100% of the shots you do not take.

Schop and Bulldog are wrong. Whaley had been the GM in everything but title going back to August of '12 when the scouting season started in earnest and he was in the Kirk chair for the '13 draft. And he flatly admitted he was wrong on EJ.

 

 

Have I mentioned that he brought us Kevin Kolb that year as well?

 

I forget if I've mentioned how dumb that made him look.

[nedboy7]

TT is gone. Finally. Now we can turn to.... <crickets>

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

My point wasn't that Whaley was likely to find a QB in the middle rounds but that the was so bad at evaluating them that he was likely going to need A LOT more luck than many evaluators would to find one.

 

But you certainly miss 100% of the shots you do not take.

 

 

Have I mentioned that he brought us Kevin Kolb that year as well?

 

I forget if I've mentioned how dumb that made him look.

 

So Whaley gets credit for the Hughes trade, right?

 

Day 3 (rounds 4-7) are regarded by most as "late rounds" AFAIK. I understood your point about needing luck, my point is given the aggregate success in the late rounds, a guy who actually needs more luck than most (if that's true) would be better picking in the rounds where the overall odds are highest, make sense to you now?

[BADOLBILZ]

 

So Whaley gets credit for the Hughes trade, right?

 

Day 3 (rounds 4-7) are regarded by most as "late rounds" AFAIK. I understood your point about needing luck, my point is given the aggregate success in the late rounds, a guy who actually needs more luck than most (if that's true) would be better picking in the rounds where the overall odds are highest, make sense to you now?

 

 

I've advocated picking the best available QB in the first round every year so you may be preaching to the pope in that regard.

 

BTW.......Griggson gets credit for the Hughes trade. It's not like he didn't call the Bills and offer Hughes for Sheppard.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

To trade up for a QB it will be the 10th pick, a 2018 1st and a 2nd rounder. Something like that is the going rate. We saw it twice last year.

 

I'd much prefer to go the other way this year and trade 10 for a 2018 1st and get another 2nd this year. The QBs are in 2018 not 2017. Let's not make the same mistake that we made in 2013, trying to draft a QB in a bad QB draft.

 

No thanks that's how we ended up with JP and missed Aaron Rodgers. If we have a chance to get Darnold and blow it because we don't have the pick I'll be leading the pitchfork brigade.

 

Best case scenario is Darnold Balls out again and we get the top pick. but knowing us we wont get that pick but a top ten pick that we can use to trade up like the Eagles did for Wentz. Hopefully the top picks teams already have QBs making a trade up possible.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

No thanks that's how we ended up with JP and missed Aaron Rodgers. If we have a chance to get Darnold and blow it because we don't have the pick I'll be leading the pitchfork brigade.

 

Best case scenario is Darnold Balls out again and we get the top pick. but knowing us we wont get that pick but a top ten pick that we can use to trade up like the Eagles did for Wentz. Hopefully the top picks teams already have QBs making a trade up possible.

I am with you BB. If you want to chase a QB, let's chase Darnold.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Apparently the Jets like him. Am I the only one that is concerned that he is a 1 year starter in addition to playing in the simple system that you mentioned? Why do we expect him to seamlessly transition and improve our offense that scored 26 PPG as a rookie?

 

He's nothing special just like Goff although I like Trubisky better. They just need someone to hype for this yrs draft.

[John from Riverside]

For those advocating working our way into picks for a 2018 qb...you do realize this is NOT happening.....

 

Whaley has to be on the hotseat at this point......a year where we tank would most certainly get him fired

 

He is not doing that....I think it is more like he is hoping one of the qbs in this draft is a Dak Prescott type

[Buffalo Barbarian]

I am with you BB. If you want to chase a QB, let's chase Darnold.

 

right on

[Kirby Jackson]

For those advocating working our way into picks for a 2018 qb...you do realize this is NOT happening.....

 

Whaley has to be on the hotseat at this point......a year where we tank would most certainly get him fired

 

He is not doing that....I think it is more like he is hoping one of the qbs in this draft is a Dak Prescott type

Well, then that's foolish. Your offense averaged 26 PPG and was top 10 in points. You either believe someone is making you better in 2017 (which is a LONGSHOT to those paying close attention) or you roll with TT. Taking someone like Trubisky or Kizer and skipping Darnold because of it will be the end of Whaley's career. If you are looking to upgrade their is a potentially transcendent QB prospect in 2018. Those are the guys that change your franchise.

 

I don't know if this will make sense to everyone but you want the 1st pick in the draft when LeBron or Anthony Davis is in the draft not when it's Michael Bennett.

Edited January 7, 2017 by Kirby Jackson

[Buffalo Barbarian]

For those advocating working our way into picks for a 2018 qb...you do realize this is NOT happening.....

 

Whaley has to be on the hotseat at this point......a year where we tank would most certainly get him fired

 

He is not doing that....I think it is more like he is hoping one of the qbs in this draft is a Dak Prescott type

 

He may not want to tank but we may bottom out with and unproven HC and QB along with losing a ton of FA who aren't the greatest but it is the average guys that make the majority of ones team.

 

there is too much change coming that will not likely lead to instant success.

[BuffaloRebound]

Darnold certainly looked good as a freshman, but I remember when Barkley was supposed to be a can't miss prospect after his freshman year too. Even if he does turn out to be the real thing next year, he could pull a Peyton manning on the jets and go back to school if he doesn't want to play for Buffalo.

[John from Riverside]

Well, then that's foolish. Your offense averaged 26 PPG and was top 10 in points. You either believe someone is making you better in 2017 (which is a LONGSHOT to those paying close attention) or you roll with TT. Taking someone like Trubisky or Kizer and skipping Darnold because of it will be the end of Whaley's career. If you are looking to upgrade their is a potentially transcendent QB prospect in 2018. Those are the guys that change your franchise.

 

I don't know if this will make sense to everyone but you want the 1st pick in the draft when LeBron or Anthony Davis is in the draft not when it's Michael Bennett.

whaley will be watching from somwhere else be realistic