section122 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I like to look at numbers as they remove a lot of emotion. I know they aren't perfect as they don't take into consideration a lot of context but I came across this and wanted to share as I thought it was interesting. DVOA (Defensive adjusted Value over Average) attempts to take numbers and add context to them. What I found was that coaches specialty and there resulting rankings didn't mirror like you think they would (much like Rex, a defensive guy, having a better offense than defense) Top 10 teams: 1. Denver - Kubiak is a former QB and OC 2. NYG - McAdoo was the OC last year 3. Arizona - Arians was an OC by trade 4. Philly - Pederson is a former OC and QB 5. Seattle - Defensive guy in Carrol 6. Baltimore - Harbaugh was a ST coordinator also DB Coach 7. Houston - BOB is an OC by trade 8. SD - McCoy is an OC by trade 9. Minn - Zimmer is a DC 10. Carolina - Rivera DV So 6 of the top 10 DVOA defenses (and the top 4) were led by an offensive minded HC. So it seems the HC background has little to no impact on whether a defense is successful. Furthermore 3 of the top 4 defenses will be sitting out of the playoffs as well as 6 of the top 10 will be missing the playoffs. I'm not sure what any of this means but I thought these numbers were interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I like to look at numbers as they remove a lot of emotion. I know they aren't perfect as they don't take into consideration a lot of context but I came across this and wanted to share as I thought it was interesting. DVOA (Defensive adjusted Value over Average) attempts to take numbers and add context to them. What I found was that coaches specialty and there resulting rankings didn't mirror like you think they would (much like Rex, a defensive guy, having a better offense than defense) Top 10 teams: 1. Denver - Kubiak is a former QB and OC 2. NYG - McAdoo was the OC last year 3. Arizona - Arians was an OC by trade 4. Philly - Pederson is a former OC and QB 5. Seattle - Defensive guy in Carrol 6. Baltimore - Harbaugh was a ST coordinator also DB Coach 7. Houston - BOB is an OC by trade 8. SD - McCoy is an OC by trade 9. Minn - Zimmer is a DC 10. Carolina - Rivera DV So 6 of the top 10 DVOA defenses (and the top 4) were led by an offensive minded HC. So it seems the HC background has little to no impact on whether a defense is successful. Furthermore 3 of the top 4 defenses will be sitting out of the playoffs as well as 6 of the top 10 will be missing the playoffs. I'm not sure what any of this means but I thought these numbers were interesting. Nice research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Nice research. Agreed. Thanks OP it is interesting. I think the biggest example I remember was Brian Bullock. He was an offensive genius whose offense sucked while he had the best defense in history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Agreed. Thanks OP it is interesting. I think the biggest example I remember was Brian Bullock. He was an offensive genius whose offense sucked while he had the best defense in history. Tony Dungy the complete opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I honestly am starting to wonder if we should not be looking at a tops ST's coordinaor for HC HC = rules over all in charge over overall team strategy OC = needs to be empowered to run his offense....needs to fit the players on hand DC = needs to be empowered to run his defense.....needs to fit the players on hand ST = highly under rated as the 3rd part of a team.....field position....points scored on ST's all huge parts of the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I honestly am starting to wonder if we should not be looking at a tops ST's coordinaor for HC HC = rules over all in charge over overall team strategy OC = needs to be empowered to run his offense....needs to fit the players on hand DC = needs to be empowered to run his defense.....needs to fit the players on hand ST = highly under rated as the 3rd part of a team.....field position....points scored on ST's all huge parts of the game Special Teams coordinators are typically master motivators. Not a whole lot of x and o experience. If you can find one that can delgate then you have a good candidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
section122 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 I honestly am starting to wonder if we should not be looking at a tops ST's coordinaor for HC HC = rules over all in charge over overall team strategy OC = needs to be empowered to run his offense....needs to fit the players on hand DC = needs to be empowered to run his defense.....needs to fit the players on hand ST = highly under rated as the 3rd part of a team.....field position....points scored on ST's all huge parts of the game What I took from it (I think anyway): Teams should stop looking at coordinators with units that do well. A hire needs to be more big picture. Having or leading a unit that excels doesn't guarantee success. The HC needs to be a leader and a manager more than an x's and o's kind of guy. I won't say it hurts to excel at x and o as that would be dumb but maybe strategy isn't as important as leading. I think about a Coughlin who needed to change his demeanor before he became the 2 time sb winning coach, John Harbaugh who's highest position was a ST coordinator, Pete Carroll who is a master motivator and I see guys who have more than just a nice resume of coordinator success. Conversely there are your Norv Turners, Wade Phillips, etc... who are great coordinators but not great HCs. I think it is a different skill set. Who knows maybe I am just trying to talk myself into Lynn or another lesser known guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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