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Posted

Back to Iran... 

 

In the OP I made mention of highly classified weapons being deployed as being a sign of the escalation of this secret war. Well, look at this seen in the skies of Iran today: 

 

 

Notice the zig-zag pattern. This is a missile trail: 

DTIQg6_X4AAijDq.jpg

 

That zig zag pattern is most likely a sign that it's an interceptor missile of some kind. 

 

BUT

 

Who would fire a ballistic missile at Iran? I think the answer to that is NOBODY. 

 

So what to make of this missile trail? My guess is we are seeing some form of the electronic weapons platform mentioned in the OP. What makes me think that? Look at the image of the Iron Dome in action and notice the differences in the pattern: 

DTISmD4W0AAhl0a.jpg

 

Those are interceptor missiles being fired, they don't make that neat zig-zag pattern. 

 

Iran has Russian S-300 interceptors. Imagine the surprise and fear it would generate if one of them fired by itself... This would show you have NO control over your own weapons systems and platforms. The neat zig-zag pattern certainly looks like someone fired off an interceptor missile - then controlled it mid air to make that pattern as a show of technical force and superiority. 

 

Food for thought. 

1 minute ago, Nanker said:

Had to click twice to make sure I didn’t hit the wrong link on my phone. 

:lol:

 

 

Me too! :lol: 

Posted

Just read your and B-Man’s posts in the Media/Trump thread and I could not agree more. 

 

Just heard that FGPS claims someone was killed because of the T dossier. Been moving around too much today to read everything. But Feinstein might be in hot water. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

DTIQg6_X4AAijDq.jpg

 

That zig zag pattern is most likely a sign that it's an interceptor missile of some kind. 

 

A zig zag pattern that regular would be a lousy interception course.  Huge waste of energy.  

 

I'd like to say it's a typical contrail warped by turbulence...but since we don't understand turbulence, how would we know?

Posted
Just now, DC Tom said:

 

A zig zag pattern that regular would be a lousy interception course.  Huge waste of energy.  

 

Agreed. Which is why this caught my attention. 

1 minute ago, DC Tom said:

I'd like to say it's a typical contrail warped by turbulence...but since we don't understand turbulence, how would we know?

 

:lol: I meet with him today in fact. :beer: 

Posted
1 minute ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Agreed. Which is why this caught my attention. 

 

My best guess would be some sort of ELINT platform trying create a baseline to localize a contact.  But I stress "guess" - I honestly have no idea.

 

2 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

:lol: I meet with him today in fact. :beer: 

 

One of the downsides of your industry is that you can't avoid talking to stupid people.

 

Being a techie, I can at least condescend to them.  In fact, it's expected I don't have the social skills to pretend I give two ***** about their ignorant drivel.

Posted
Just now, DC Tom said:

 

My best guess would be some sort of ELINT platform trying create a baseline to localize a contact.  But I stress "guess" - I honestly have no idea.

 

Mine is a guess too, obviously. 

 

1 minute ago, DC Tom said:

One of the downsides of your industry is that you can't avoid talking to stupid people.

 

Being a techie, I can at least condescend to them.  In fact, it's expected I don't have the social skills to pretend I give two ***** about their ignorant drivel.

 

:lol:

SO TRUE. I have stories to share when we catch up next. 

 

:beer:

Posted (edited)

Not to be a penis about this, but guessing what this is  just that...... guessing

It is impossible to determine what is going on in any of those photos.

The "zig zag" pattern looks like a few things, one of which is a failure of the seeker, leading to poor and constantly correcting guidance in an attempt to solve a bad seeker issue.

Another possibility is the result of what are called "bang bang canards," which the sidewinder (heater) missile uses, among many others.

In fact, that is how sidewinder got it's name.

Sidewinder is an air-air missile, but bang bang canards for intercept solution is not unique to it.

It is not my intent to bring up this stuff, but be careful when you try to interpret this without background. 

 

Highly unlikely it is turbulence related, for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that at the speeds these things travel, the zigs and zags are milliseconds apart.

 

Both of those pictures could just as well be from perfectly performing missiles.

The zig zag would be the result of what is called end game solution to a target.

The more arced pattern would be the end game of a constant trajectory intercept.

 

Point is.... Purely speculative to guess at it.

Regards.

Edited by sherpa
Posted
4 minutes ago, sherpa said:

Not to be a penis about this, but guessing what this is is just that, guessing

It is impossible to determine what is going on in any of those photos.

The "zig zag" pattern looks like a few things, one of which is a failure of the seeker, leading to poor and constantly correcting guidance in an attempt to solve a bad guidance issue.

Another possibility is the result of what are called "bang bang canards," which the sidewinder (heater) missile uses, among many others.

In fact, that is how sidewinder got it's name.

Sidewinder is an air-air missile, but bang bang canards for intercept solution is not unique to it.

It is not my intent to bring up this stuff, but be careful when you try to interpret this without background.

 

You're kind-of new here...you'll find I routinely stress that: photo analysis is bloody damned hard even when you have actual photos, and aren't going off a 480 resolution youtube video.  I've done some, as a military history enthusiast, on WWII combat footage.  You have to be really disciplined in discerning what you actually see, what you see that you can't identify, and what you don't see but assume is there.  I get in to those arguments with 9/11 truthers all the time..."Look at these puffs of smoke!  They're demolition charges!"  No, you don't see demolition charges.  You see puffs of smoke.  You don't know what they are.  

 

You'll note that even in my guess, I said "platform," not "plane."  I wasn't even willing to make that assumption.  The second picture I would guess are SAMs (though they're pretty smoky for SAMs), but it could poorly made homebuilt artillery rockets, or a space shuttle exploding, for all I know.

Posted
6 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

 

You're kind-of new here...you'll find I routinely stress that: photo analysis is bloody damned hard even when you have actual photos, and aren't going off a 480 resolution youtube video.  

 

I get your tenure.

My point is to bring up a warning flag to folks who interpret photos without background knowledge.

Nothing else, and you are not one who does.

Posted
14 minutes ago, sherpa said:

Not to be a penis about this, but guessing what this is  just that...... guessing

It is impossible to determine what is going on in any of those photos.

The "zig zag" pattern looks like a few things, one of which is a failure of the seeker, leading to poor and constantly correcting guidance in an attempt to solve a bad seeker issue.

Another possibility is the result of what are called "bang bang canards," which the sidewinder (heater) missile uses, among many others.

In fact, that is how sidewinder got it's name.

Sidewinder is an air-air missile, but bang bang canards for intercept solution is not unique to it.

It is not my intent to bring up this stuff, but be careful when you try to interpret this without background. 

 

Highly unlikely it is turbulence related, for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that at the speeds these things travel, the zigs and zags are milliseconds apart.

 

Both of those pictures could just as well be from perfectly performing missiles.

The zig zag would be the result of what is called end game solution to a target.

The more arced pattern would be the end game of a constant trajectory intercept.

 

Point is.... Purely speculative to guess at it.

Regards.

 

Without question. 

 

Some speculations can (usually) be quickly ruled out. Such as the notion that someone is engaged in air-to-air combat over Iran right now or that someone is launching missiles of any kind into Iran. If that were happening, we'd know or have a bunch more evidence.  

 

Those trails could be many things. But they're likely a missile trail. I think you'd agree with that. 

 

There are reasons why there would be missiles being fired in Iranian airspace today - but those reasons aren't too numerous.

 

6 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

 

You're kind-of new here...you'll find I routinely stress that: photo analysis is bloody damned hard even when you have actual photos, and aren't going off a 480 resolution youtube video.  I've done some, as a military history enthusiast, on WWII combat footage.  You have to be really disciplined in discerning what you actually see, what you see that you can't identify, and what you don't see but assume is there.  I get in to those arguments with 9/11 truthers all the time..."Look at these puffs of smoke!  They're demolition charges!"  No, you don't see demolition charges.  You see puffs of smoke.  You don't know what they are.  

 

You'll note that even in my guess, I said "platform," not "plane."  I wasn't even willing to make that assumption.  The second picture I would guess are SAMs (though they're pretty smoky for SAMs), but it could poorly made homebuilt artillery rockets, or a space shuttle exploding, for all I know.

 

I also agree with this. 

 

But when I'm confident of the source, and have some backup in terms of my analysis, I won't ignore photographic evidence. That doesn't mean I expect it to be taken as gospel - at all. Discernment is always mandatory. 

Posted
1 minute ago, /dev/null said:

zig zag = alternative trajectory

 

That missile's not going to be oppressed by your toxic cis-trajectory expectations!

Posted
4 minutes ago, DC Tom said:

 

That missile's not going to be oppressed by your toxic cis-trajectory expectations!

It's been liberated from Western European concepts of mathematics and logic

Posted
13 minutes ago, /dev/null said:

zig zag = alternative trajectory

 

And the result of an electronic countermeasure routine.

See it. Evaluate it. Disregard it, (because it fits a decoy protocol).

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