The Frankish Reich Posted January 4, 2017 Posted January 4, 2017 A funny thing happened on the way to building a bully. Rex was going to recreate his first year with the Jets, 2009. Mangini's defense finished 18th in points allowed. He took them to 1st. Meanwhile, the offense: from 9th under Mangini to 17th under Rex. But a dominant defense and a mediocre offense plus a little luck all added up to a playoff berth, and ultimately an AFC championship game). But we all know Rex's Bills showed little resemblance to his peak Jets. But they did resemble another team: the first year Chip Kelly Eagles: Eagles 2013: offense 4th. Defense 17th Bills 2016: offense 10th. Defense 16th So the offense isn't quite there yet. But dig deeper and more similarities emerge - similarities beyond the fact that both teams featured LeSean McCoy. Eagles 2013: 1st in rushing yards. 5.1 yards per carry. Bills 2016: also 1st in rushing. 5.3 ypc. Deeper still - Rex wanted to ground and pound. Didn't happen. His Bills slashed and dashed like McCoy's Eagles: Eagles 2013: 2nd (49ers) in running plays that gained 20+ yards. Bills 2016: 1st (over the Raiders, and by a huge margin, 27 to 19) in running plays of 20+ yards. Eagles 2013: 51 rushes that went for negative yards Bills 2016: 56 (Compare: the team that was 2nd in rushing yards, the Cowboys, had 38 negative yard rushes; 3rd, Titans: 43) It's kind of hard to lead the league in rushing while throwing so many negative yardage plays out there. You've got to consistently come up with big plays. That's what the Bills did. It's successful (or at least it can be), but it ain't ground and pound. It ain't ball control and time of possession. It's rapid strike, shock and awe. So ... what's my point? It's this: while Rex failed miserably at recreating his old Jets. But while he wasn't paying attention, he (Roman? Lynn? Tyrod and McCoy?) put together a truly explosive offense that really wasn't far removed from that Chip Kelly Eagles team. Biggest difference: Eagles 2013 led the league in pass plays of 20+ yards and of 40+ yards. The Bills struggled in making big pass plays (I blame the missing Watkins more than anything else). Another key difference, and to me the one that's easiest to fix: play faster on offense. Get more plays in. Be more like Chip Kelly, less like, well, Greg Roman. Commit to winning by having a scary fast offense, rather than winning through a phantom bully defense. Implications for the future? I'll set aside the "to keep Tyrod or not" issue for the moment. My key is this: by all means try to improve the defense. But recognize what you've got right here, right now, at least for one more year: McCoy/Sammy/Clay/Gillislee, a pretty good O line (one that I think got better with Groy). Get another game changer at WR. Keep Tyrod if you want, or in my opinion, better still go get Nick Foles (who was fantastic with those 2013 Eagles) or someone else who can distribute the ball fast to those playmakers. Win some games 42-37. After 2017, Sammy's contract is up, projecting McCoy at this sustained level of performance becomes problematic, Clay's knees have taken yet another year of abuse, etc., etc. Hey, if it doesn't work next year, maybe it's time to start from scratch. But for 2017, for me it's all in on this offense, including (maybe paradoxically) using the draft to get even more offensive playmakers in early rounds. It's the 2013 Eagles all over again. Foles should be available. His OC (Shurmur) should be too. If nothing else it would be fun to watch ...
Marty McFly Posted January 4, 2017 Posted January 4, 2017 A funny thing happened on the way to building a bully. Rex was going to recreate his first year with the Jets, 2009. Mangini's defense finished 18th in points allowed. He took them to 1st. Meanwhile, the offense: from 9th under Mangini to 17th under Rex. But a dominant defense and a mediocre offense plus a little luck all added up to a playoff berth, and ultimately an AFC championship game). But we all know Rex's Bills showed little resemblance to his peak Jets. But they did resemble another team: the first year Chip Kelly Eagles: Eagles 2013: offense 4th. Defense 17th Bills 2016: offense 10th. Defense 16th But for 2017, for me it's all in on this offense, including (maybe paradoxically) using the draft to get even more offensive playmakers in early rounds. It's the 2013 Eagles all over again. Foles should be available. His OC (Shurmur) should be too. If nothing else it would be fun to watch ... Nice work here breh! If anything the Bills the last two years have been exciting to watch. I hope we keep tyrod add better WRs and develop a better passing game. Fixing the defense while keeping the offense the same or better would put us in the playoffs. Nice write up!
The Frankish Reich Posted January 4, 2017 Author Posted January 4, 2017 Nice work here breh! If anything the Bills the last two years have been exciting to watch. I hope we keep tyrod add better WRs and develop a better passing game. Fixing the defense while keeping the offense the same or better would put us in the playoffs. Nice write up! Hey, thanks! The more I looked at the numbers, the more convinced I became ....
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