Nobody wants to hear this now, but this is how close we are

[DC Tom]

So why do they win those games and we lose them? Not just a coincidence or statistical anomaly!?

 

Buffalo.

[Kelly the Dog]

Not a single team beat the Pats backups besides us this year. Very often.

But that is not unusual at all. Because teams usually beat a team of backups. So the Bills win was not unusual let alone incredible.

 

Just don't reply to my posts please. And I won't reply to yours.

[TheFunPolice]

I used to think the Chiefs were just lucky, because it seemed like every year the Bills would be dominating them, then a Bryce Brown moment happens where the RB fumbles into the endzone and instead of Bills +7 it's first and 10 for the Chiefs at the 20.

 

But they are a very good team. Can they challenge New England? That will be interesting. If Houston is out that hurts them.

 

Andy Reid's teams win a lot but never seem quite like contenders.

[FireChan]

But that is not unusual at all. Because teams usually beat a team of backups. So the Bills win was not unusual let alone incredible.

 

Just don't reply to my posts please. And I won't reply to yours.

Okay okay, that was a little excessive. I take it back.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

I used to think the Chiefs were just lucky, because it seemed like every year the Bills would be dominating them, then a Bryce Brown moment happens where the RB fumbles into the endzone and instead of Bills +7 it's first and 10 for the Chiefs at the 20.

 

But they are a very good team. Can they challenge New England? That will be interesting. If Houston is out that hurts them.

 

Andy Reid's teams win a lot but never seem quite like contenders.

Yeah that's exactly how I felt as well. I think Andy Reid is this generations Marty Schottenheimer.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

They seem to make game changing plays on defense. Not just 3rd down incompletions, but game changing big plays and takeaways. ST plays as well

 

Yes. And just fundamental game management and team discipline is better than ours. I give Rex props, he did move us from being the most penalized team in the league in 2015 to only the 9th most in 2016. That's significant.

But it would have been better to be consistently mid-league or lower, and guess who had the most penalties for defensive 12 men on field

 

Unfortunately, it's been true for a number of seasons I don't want to remember, that we are competitive in many games where we either just don't close it out (get the stop) or score the 3 or 4 or 6 points we need.

[Reed83HOF]

Based on the NFL Offensive Drive Statistics we were worse than KC last year, but slightly better this year.

 

2015:

BUF - 36.8% of drives ended as 3&Out or a turnover (.279 3&O; .089TO), resulting in an average drive time of 2:46

KC - 29.9% of drives ended as 3&Out or a turnover (.226 3&O; .073TO), resulting in an average drive time of 2:47

 

2016:

BUF - 28.7% of drives ended as 3&Out or a turnover (.218 3&O; .069TO), resulting in an average drive time of 2:43

KC - 29.3% of drives ended as a 3&Out or a turnover (.199 3&O; .094TO), resulting in an average drive time of 2:51

 

Nice pulling of the information. I am surprised to see this...

[Mr. WEO]

I know I sound like Doug Whaley in this thread, but this is how close the Bills are to being a perennial 10-6/11-5 team if we stay the course on offense, improve the defense, and play smarter with better coaching.

 

 

 

 

 

Jeez, is that all?

 

Why are they waiting until next season to do all that?

[BuffaloHokie13]

 

Nice pulling of the information. I am surprised to see this...

I found it really interesting that despite our 8% improvement our average drive time got shorter.

[BmarvB]

So why do they win those games and we lose them? Not just a coincidence or statistical anomaly!?

 

Rex's defense

 

And there you have it

[Buffalo Barbarian]

I know I sound like Doug Whaley in this thread, but this is how close the Bills are to being a perennial 10-6/11-5 team if we stay the course on offense, improve the defense, and play smarter with better coaching.

 

Since 2015, the Chiefs are 15 - 1 in games where they score 25 points or more. Five of those 16 games were 1 score games. So the majority of their wins when they score 25 or more end up being blowouts.

 

Since 2015, the Bills are 9 - 8 in games where they score 25 points or more. 6 of our losses (75% of our losses) in those 17 games were by 1 score.

 

We're 15-17 in that 2 year stretch and the Chiefs are 23 - 9. Only looking at these games, had the Chiefs done as badly as us in such games (say they go 9-7), they would have about the same record as us during the same 2yr stretch.

 

 

 

yeah yeah, we are always just this close but yet somehow always end up in this position.

[metzelaars_lives]

And yet many on here have insisted that Alex Smith has some magic power that Taylor doesn't possess. IT'S CALLED A DEFENSE.

Edited January 3, 2017 by metzelaars_lives

[Kemp]

"...if we stay the course on offense, improve the defense, and play smarter with better coaching...."

 

Is that all?

[Alphadawg7]

So why do they win those games and we lose them? Not just a coincidence or statistical anomaly!?

 

There are 3 key reasons:

 

1. Our Defense - I am not calling it Rex's defense, because that just puts all the blame on Rex and disregards the complete lack of tackling when our guys WERE in position to make plays in Rex's defense and just didn't. It disregards the stupidity of dumb penalties by Hughes and others that were on them, not the scheme. It disregards the bone head Marcel for getting suspended and turning up out of shape causing him to miss even more time. Im NOT absolving Rex, but I am also not giving our players a free pass on the countless times they just flat out blew it, and its more than anyone can count over the 2 years. Not having Shaq for the preseason and first half the year and not having Rags the whole season also didn't do us any favors.

 

2. Carpenter - This guy has cost us plenty the last 2 years. How many times did his DOUBLE DIGIT missed XP's impact the end of games where we needed a TD rather than a FG? How many times did his missed FG's cost us big? I mean he has GOT TO GO. Its really hard to win close games when your kicker struggles as much as he has the last 2 years. There have been several games where a FG would have won or tied the game for us (and we got to FG position) but Carpenters earlier misses on either XP or FG's put us down by 4 or more and we needed a TD instead.

 

3. Ref mistakes - Now this ONLY really cost us 2 games in the last years in my eyes. Every team deals with bad calls that go against them and also in their favor. But 2 games were directly stolen from us by not just bad calls, but atrocious and inexcusable referee mistakes and when you are talking about how close we are, those matter a lot. Those 2 games were the Giants game last year where the refs stole TD's from us multiple times on phantom calls that cost us the game and this year in Seattle. There is a lot that goes into a win or loss, but in both those games the mistakes made by the refs undeniably impacted the outcome of the game where we almost certainly win without.

 

This team is close, so I really hope we don't blow the whole thing up. I think the last week of the season showed just how much of a mistake it would be to let Taylor go. He is good enough to lead us into the playoffs as we were one of the highest scoring teams in the league once Roman was let go. Going into next year, we have a lot to look forward to and build upon:

 

1. We will have our top 2 draft picks from this past season back at full strength in ready to make a big impact in Shaq (who has looked promising) and Rags (who was off to an impressive start before the injury), so that alone should boost the D.

2. A potentially better defensive scheme under new coaching.

3. Marcel for the whole season (assuming he doesnt do something dumb again)

4. A healthy Watkins (assuming this surgery goes well and doesnt creat more setbacks)

5. Our top 2 draft picks from this past draft back and healthy ready to make a big impact on D (Shaq has looked the part so far and Rags was looking the part before the injury, a lot to be excited about with those 2).

 

Now add in some potential help coming via FA and the draft at WR and Safety and we have the makings of a run again next year as we damn near made one the last 2 years despite all the issues with the D and injuries.

 

So bringing back Taylor IMO is the right choice, as he and the offense did enough this year even with our best weapons often hurt or out for large portions of the season. With all that in place, we should be looking at a potentially good season next year assuming we don't get smashed with injuries to our best players again or lose them to suspensions.

 

I honestly believe and would argue that we are the 2nd most attractive job opening in the NFL right now behind only Denver who has a lot of talent overall but is missing a QB.

[dave mcbride]

 

There are 3 key reasons:

 

1. Our Defense - I am not calling it Rex's defense, because that just puts all the blame on Rex and disregards the complete lack of tackling when our guys WERE in position to make plays in Rex's defense and just didn't. It disregards the stupidity of dumb penalties by Hughes and others that were on them, not the scheme. It disregards the bone head Marcel for getting suspended and turning up out of shape causing him to miss even more time. Im NOT absolving Rex, but I am also not giving our players a free pass on the countless times they just flat out blew it, and its more than anyone can count over the 2 years. Not having Shaq for the preseason and first half the year and not having Rags the whole season also didn't do us any favors.

 

2. Carpenter - This guy has cost us plenty the last 2 years. How many times did his DOUBLE DIGIT missed XP's impact the end of games where we needed a TD rather than a FG? How many times did his missed FG's cost us big? I mean he has GOT TO GO. Its really hard to win close games when your kicker struggles as much as he has the last 2 years. There have been several games where a FG would have won or tied the game for us (and we got to FG position) but Carpenters earlier misses on either XP or FG's put us down by 4 or more and we needed a TD instead.

 

3. Ref mistakes - Now this ONLY really cost us 2 games in the last years in my eyes. Every team deals with bad calls that go against them and also in their favor. But 2 games were directly stolen from us by not just bad calls, but atrocious and inexcusable referee mistakes and when you are talking about how close we are, those matter a lot. Those 2 games were the Giants game last year where the refs stole TD's from us multiple times on phantom calls that cost us the game and this year in Seattle. There is a lot that goes into a win or loss, but in both those games the mistakes made by the refs undeniably impacted the outcome of the game where we almost certainly win without.

 

This team is close, so I really hope we don't blow the whole thing up. I think the last week of the season showed just how much of a mistake it would be to let Taylor go. He is good enough to lead us into the playoffs as we were one of the highest scoring teams in the league once Roman was let go. Going into next year, we have a lot to look forward to and build upon:

 

1. We will have our top 2 draft picks from this past season back at full strength in ready to make a big impact in Shaq (who has looked promising) and Rags (who was off to an impressive start before the injury), so that alone should boost the D.

2. A potentially better defensive scheme under new coaching.

3. Marcel for the whole season (assuming he doesnt do something dumb again)

4. A healthy Watkins (assuming this surgery goes well and doesnt creat more setbacks)

5. Our top 2 draft picks from this past draft back and healthy ready to make a big impact on D (Shaq has looked the part so far and Rags was looking the part before the injury, a lot to be excited about with those 2).

 

Now add in some potential help coming via FA and the draft at WR and Safety and we have the makings of a run again next year as we damn near made one the last 2 years despite all the issues with the D and injuries.

 

So bringing back Taylor IMO is the right choice, as he and the offense did enough this year even with our best weapons often hurt or out for large portions of the season. With all that in place, we should be looking at a potentially good season next year assuming we don't get smashed with injuries to our best players again or lose them to suspensions.

 

I honestly believe and would argue that we are the 2nd most attractive job opening in the NFL right now behind only Denver who has a lot of talent overall but is missing a QB.

Re stolen games by the refs, the recent Miami game was FAR more egregious than the Giants and Seattle games. On Tyrod's run in the Giants game, there actually was a blatant hold committed by Seantrel Henderson even though it was called on the other guy.

[Alphadawg7]

Re stolen games by the refs, the recent Miami game was FAR more egregious than the Giants and Seattle games. On Tyrod's run in the Giants game, there actually was a blatant hold committed by Seantrel Henderson even though it was called on the other guy.

 

If memory serves me, there were multiple TD's taken away on questionable (phantom) calls in the Giants game. And while I agree about the Miami game, I didn't count that one because it felt more in line where we I said every game there are bad calls that work both in our favor and against us. The Giants game and the Seattle game really felt like Refs just utterly screwed the pooch and blatantly screwed up to the point we lost the game. I never like to blame refs because for every call that doesn't go our way there are calls that do that people forget about. But every now and then its so inexcusable and impactful that it just can't be ignored which is why I only really cited the 2 games I very much feel were flat out stolen from our win column.

[BuffaloHokie13]

 

If memory serves me, there were multiple TD's taken away on questionable (phantom) calls in the Giants game. And while I agree about the Miami game, I didn't count that one because it felt more in line where we I said every game there are bad calls that work both in our favor and against us. The Giants game and the Seattle game really felt like Refs just utterly screwed the pooch and blatantly screwed up to the point we lost the game. I never like to blame refs because for every call that doesn't go our way there are calls that do that people forget about. But every now and then its so inexcusable and impactful that it just can't be ignored which is why I only really cited the 2 games I very much feel were flat out stolen from our win column.

2 TD's off the board. 1 30+ Yard Run called back on Holding, 1 30+ Yard Pass called back on an Incognito chop block

[Marty McFly]

this. Better coaching and players making plays when it counts more than ours do.

 

They seem to make game changing plays on defense. Not just 3rd down incompletions, but game changing big plays and takeaways. ST plays as well

 

 

They capitalize on their "luck" the most. Thats a big reason too.

 

I used to think the Chiefs were just lucky, because it seemed like every year the Bills would be dominating them, then a Bryce Brown moment happens where the RB fumbles into the endzone and instead of Bills +7 it's first and 10 for the Chiefs at the 20.

 

But they are a very good team. Can they challenge New England? That will be interesting. If Houston is out that hurts them.

 

Andy Reid's teams win a lot but never seem quite like contenders.

Edited January 3, 2017 by Marty McFly

[BillsVet]

"...if we stay the course on offense, improve the defense, and play smarter with better coaching...."

 

Is that all?

 

Every off-season some fans assume the team can only improve and there's no way they'll regress. Yet going from 7/8 wins to 10/11 is never just a simple thing and if it was the Bills would have made that leap by now.

[rant_and_go]

Offense is overrated.

If you can think of a time when the other team goes up 21-3, then just plays prevent, knowing all the Bills can do is run, it's not a good offense.