Cripple Creek Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 So let me get this straight: A guy can be termed a bust despite producing over 2,500 yards and 17 TDs in 3 seasons while playing through injuries in an offense that throws the ball less than literally every other offense in the NFL? That makes absolutely no sense. He's not a bust by any definition. In fact, through 2015, he lead the NFL in yards per target since he entered the league. #contextmatters If his career were to end today, most definitely. Only a homer wouldn't see it as such.
Alphadawg7 Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 (edited) I apologize for having higher (winning) expectations than you do. If you feel, today, that Sammy Watkins was worth the price paid then we have nothing to talk about. Your mind is made up, mine waits to see results. If you average out his career stats based on yearly averages...he would be at over 1000 yards per season, 7.35 TDs per year, 16.1 YPC and that is with having Orton/EJ as your QB for HALF of all your career games. The worst OC I have ever seen in Hackett for 16 of those games. A run first OC in Roman for 18 of those games. Basically playing his entire career actually on a run first team. Dealing with THREE OC's in 3 seasons. And playing hurt in several of the games he did play in. Spending a season with a first time QB who is a run oriented QB. Having no real threat opposite of him to take pressure off him either. Your bar of production is unrealistic considering all of that. Not to mention, all the games that he had very few targets from either a terrible offensive game plan or terrible QB play. What he has produced under all the circumstances is actually quite impressive. So you asked is SAMMY worth it...the answer is YES, tha Sammy the PLAYER has the talent that justifies the cost. The situation he has been stuck in and the bad luck on injuries have reduced some of his production, but that doesn't take away from his talent nor make him a bust by any means. Edited January 3, 2017 by Alphadawg7
thebandit27 Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 If his career were to end today, most definitely. Only a homer wouldn't see it as such. Massive cop out Of course it would be a bust if he only played 3 seasons Please tell me that you have a better point than that. This thread started by comparing his numbers after 3 seasons to Julio Jones'...would Julio have been a bust at this point? Now factor in the significant disparity in QB play and targets (because context matters whether you like it or not), and answer again. Perhaps now you see the point
Cripple Creek Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 If you average out his career stats based on yearly averages...he would be at over 1000 yards per season, 7.35 TDs per year, 16.1 YPC and that is with having Orton/EJ as your QB for HALF of all your career games. The worst OC I have ever seen in Hackett for 16 of those games. A run first OC in Roman for 18 of those games. Basically playing his entire career actually on a run first team. Dealing with THREE OC's in 3 seasons. And playing hurt in several of the games he did play in. Spending a season with a first time QB who is a run oriented QB. Having no real threat opposite of him to take pressure off him either. Your bar of production is unrealistic considering all of that. Not to mention, all the games that he had very few targets from either a terrible offensive game plan or terrible QB play. What he has produced under all the circumstances is actually quite impressive. So you asked is SAMMY worth it...the answer is YES, tha Sammy the PLAYER has the talent that justifies the cost. The situation he has been stuck in and the bad luck on injuries have reduced some of his production, but that doesn't take away from his talent nor make him a bust by any means. I average out stats by career production. You can have all of the ifs, ands, and buts you want. A player is judged by production over his career. If you read what I wrote I don't believe you will find I've called him a bust, but, based on the price paid, the potential is there.
BuffaloHokie13 Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 Great post. Julio, just like Sammy, was a guy who was just obvious he was going to be a star. Unfortunately because of that obviousness, I had him two of his first three years on my fantasy team and I got burnt. I'm not calling Sammy a bust by any means, and I know measurables aren't everything, but is it worth pointing out that Julio is bigger, faster, stronger, and has a better vertical?
Alphadawg7 Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 Massive cop out Of course it would be a bust if he only played 3 seasons Please tell me that you have a better point than that. This thread started by comparing his numbers after 3 seasons to Julio Jones'...would Julio have been a bust at this point? Now factor in the significant disparity in QB play and targets (because context matters whether you like it or not), and answer again. Perhaps now you see the point Its a lost cause...he has decided that regardless of facts, circumstances, or logic that he is a bust. I am guessing he was unhappy the night we made the trade and drafted him too and is just continuously building his case to support his disapproval of the pick in the first place.
Cripple Creek Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 Massive cop out Of course it would be a bust if he only played 3 seasons Please tell me that you have a better point than that. This thread started by comparing his numbers after 3 seasons to Julio Jones'...would Julio have been a bust at this point? Now factor in the significant disparity in QB play and targets (because context matters whether you like it or not), and answer again. Perhaps now you see the point Cop out or reality? I have not called him a bust, but, I am realistic in my expectations. So far he hasn't lived up to his draft status, I hope that does change in the near future.
Alphadawg7 Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 I average out stats by career production. You can have all of the ifs, ands, and buts you want. A player is judged by production over his career. If you read what I wrote I don't believe you will find I've called him a bust, but, based on the price paid, the potential is there. Everything I posted was 100% fact...nothing was based on ifs or that. So this response has no value.
Gray Beard Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 Watkins is not a bust, but he may have been too expensive. I never thought Donte Whitner was a bust, I just thought he was too expensive.
Cripple Creek Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 Its a lost cause...he has decided that regardless of facts, circumstances, or logic that he is a bust. I am guessing he was unhappy the night we made the trade and drafted him too and is just continuously building his case to support his disapproval of the pick in the first place. Please do consider reading what I've actually written, not what you want me to have written. Today the man is not worth the price paid. If you feel differently then god bless.
Kirby Jackson Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 (edited) that may be your criteria, don't push it on me. Has he live up to his draft status? No. could he still? Yes, but the window is closing. His current production at the price paid say he was not worth it. You can throw out per snap this, per series that...doesn't matter to me. His overall production will be the determining factor on whether he was a "bust" or not.Not pushing anything on anyone. I asked if you preferred other receivers because they play more or because you think that they are better? If you believe there are a lot of guys better I suggest you compare them on a per target basis. What does each guy do when the ball comes his way? Watkins will be right there with anyone. His catch rate, yards per catch, TDs, etc.. That's how you judge production. There are plenty of metrics that allow for a comparison that will be much more accurate than "that's what I think." If you are saying he's only played 37 games and left others early thats a fair argument. "I'd take Doug Baldwin because I know that I can count on him every week" is a different conversation than "I think that Doug Baldwin is a better player." I'm simply asking for a clarification. Edited January 3, 2017 by Kirby Jackson
Alphadawg7 Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 (edited) Please do consider reading what I've actually written, not what you want me to have written. Today the man is not worth the price paid. If you feel differently then god bless. I have read what you wrote...you have labeled him a bust both directly and in back tracking talk. You also said you would take many WR's over him even old ones, thats how little you think of him. You keep citing "production" for the reason, but you blatantly ignore the high level of production he has achieved on a team that is the bottom of the league in pass attempts, a team that he spent HALF his career catching passes with the disaster of Orton and EJ, on a team that is the top rushing team in the NFL during his 3 year career, on a team that that has had 3 OC's in his 3 year career including one of the worst I have ever seen the NFL in Hackett, and that he played several of those games hurt to try and help the team. I don't know many WR's in the NFL that would have fared much better, if any, under the exact same circumstances here. On a talent basis, which is what determines his draft value, he is among the best in the NFL and worhty of his cost. But you blame SAMMY for things that were not his fault. You hold SAMMY accountable for the fact that our OC didn't throw him the ball enough. You blame SAMMY for the lack of talent throwing the ball. You blame SAMMY for al these things outside of his control. But the facts remain, that when given the opportunities he is highly productive and one of the best in the entire NFL. The ONLY thing that has been an issue is the unlucky break with the injury this year and a little last year. But given his history shows no signs of injury issues, its not really fair to assume it will continue to plague him. Calvin Johnson dealt with injuries too, but that didn't make him less talented. The difference is he had a strong armed QB who is talented force feeding him the ball. Put Sammy in Detroit and he would probably lead the NFL in just about every receiving category there is much like Calvin. Edited January 3, 2017 by Alphadawg7
davspo Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 He is not a bust, but he is no where near what you would expect from the 4th over all pick and first receiver taken off the board. It's really not even debatable.
Kirby Jackson Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 (edited) Massive cop out Of course it would be a bust if he only played 3 seasons Please tell me that you have a better point than that. This thread started by comparing his numbers after 3 seasons to Julio Jones'...would Julio have been a bust at this point? Now factor in the significant disparity in QB play and targets (because context matters whether you like it or not), and answer again. Perhaps now you see the point He is also 23 YEARS-OLD!!!! And stemming off of what Alpha said earlier thanks for always taking a well reasoned, level-headed approach. You really do raise the level of conversation around here. I'm not calling Sammy a bust by any means, and I know measurables aren't everything, but is it worth pointing out that Julio is bigger, faster, stronger, and has a better vertical? I think that's fair but Sammy runs crisper routes, has more burst and has better hands. They are different players. Obviously, it isn't fair to compare the 2 based on their career production as they are in different places. There is a reason though that scouts had them graded so similarly (and highly). He is not a bust, but he is no where near what you would expect from the 4th over all pick and first receiver taken off the board. It's really not even debatable.That's kind of the debate. He is worth it when he's on the field. His per target numbers are staggering. He hasn't been healthy and doesn't get the ball enough when he is. If received the 4 more targets a game that some of the best guys are getting his gross numbers would be ridiculous. Now, he needs to get healthy and the Bills have to use him to get that to come to fruition. Will either of those things happen? Who knows Edited January 3, 2017 by Kirby Jackson
Leroi Posted January 4, 2017 Posted January 4, 2017 You don't see him duck out of bounds way ahead of defenders so he doesn't get hit? TV announcers notice and comment about it...he never goes and gets all he can. Dolphins game. Ducked out instead of getting the first. Cost us the game. That was a defining moment in his career. He needs to change his playing culture. Imo
jumbalaya Posted January 4, 2017 Posted January 4, 2017 Sammy could catch 200 balls next year from Tyrod and we will still have the worst passing attack in the NFL. Up to this point, Sammy cost two much and has been hurt too much. He could be great if he played a full season and had an above average pro passer, hopefully we find out but we may never know.
What a Tuel Posted January 4, 2017 Posted January 4, 2017 Dolphins game. Ducked out instead of getting the first. Cost us the game. That was a defining moment in his career. He needs to change his playing culture. Imo You have really went off the deep end with your hot takes.
thebandit27 Posted January 4, 2017 Posted January 4, 2017 Cop out or reality? I have not called him a bust, but, I am realistic in my expectations. So far he hasn't lived up to his draft status, I hope that does change in the near future. This is a significantl different statement than saying he'd be considered a bust right now as you seemed to be implying above
Big Turk Posted January 4, 2017 Author Posted January 4, 2017 Oh, no question. He's incredible. Except against Gilmore, lol
Cripple Creek Posted January 4, 2017 Posted January 4, 2017 Everything I posted was 100% fact...nothing was based on ifs or that. So this response has no value. One man's facts are another's opinion. I'm perfectly fine with you having your point of view and I haven't felt the need to tell you that your opinions have no value. Why the cantankerousness? We see things differently. I prefer to look at the here and now, you prefer otherwise. It's an ok thing.This is a significantl different statement than saying he'd be considered a bust right now as you seemed to be implying aboveI'll invite you to show me where.
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