All_Pro_Bills Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 Injuries aside, the way Watkins has been used by the Bills offensive minds reminds me of how another Bill was utilized early in his career. For those of us old enough to remember, OJ was more or less a decoy in the backfield before Lou Saban came back and built a running game around Simpson, the only RB in NFL history to rush for 2000+ yards in a 14 game season. Any new OC has to dial up #14 20 or so targets a game. Does anyone recall one WR screen to Sammy? I don't but I do recall it was a frequent call from his college days. Maybe our coaches need to check this out too as another way to get him more touches.
Freddie's Dead Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 I agree with this but you cannot evaluate the trade in hindsight. When that draft took place Sammy was seen as the only sure thing WR prospect. Evans was considered a below average route runner and there were questions on whether he'd be able to get separation in the NFL (he can). OBJ was considered a bit small to be a sure thing. Sammy had it all. Speed, good size, amazing hands, quickness, route running, you name it he had / has it. In retrospect, yes, we should have just stayed and taken one of the other WRs, but you cannot look at it that way. Sammy has the talent to justify where we took him, we just need him to stay on the field and throw him the damn ball. Doug Whaley is great at pro personnel. He came up with two gems in Zach Brown and Lorenzo Alexander. When it comes to the draft though, he's close to a disaster. Trading up for Sammy and Ragland cost the Bills 6 picks (SIX!) He also picked two guys this year that he knew were injured in Shaq and Listenbee (at least we got 1/2 year out of Shaq). It's not just Sammy, Whaley has established a pattern here. He thinks we're close, which is delusional. He keeps giving away picks to win now, and that has to stop.
Beef Jerky Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 ?? Nonsense. More posters on this Board are considered a bust than Sammy. 37 games, 153 receptions, 2,459 yrds. 17 TDs and a 16.1 ypc. in 3 years. He's 23 years old! Let me know when he can get back on the field consistently. Until then he is on the edge of being a bust, stop crying this is on Sammy.
Maury Ballstein Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 Let me know when he can get back on the field consistently. Until then he is on the edge of being a bust, stop crying this is on Sammy. Wrong.
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 Depends on how you define bust. I would define it based on cost vs production. And I would absolutely view Watkins as a bust based on those criteria and to date. Can he turn it around and finally get healthy? Maybe. Will it be for us? Doubtful. We aren't going to re-sign him to a big FA deal. So, we will have given up a pair of 1st rounders for a part time player that gave us no meaningful production during the time he was here.
papazoid Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 #1 - Sammy is a stud #2 - the bills paid a heavy price to get him using 2 years worth of first round picks. #3 - this is a text book example of competing philosophies of trading up (putting all your eggs in one basket for 1 player) vs trading down (picking up extra picks, spreading out the risk of injury over several players and usually lowering your total cap hit in the process compared to the 1 stud). #4 - a 1st round pick can usually be flipped for a 2nd & 3rd rounder. so in sammy's case you could say he cost the bills two seconds and two thirds (4 players). in 2014, Sammy has a $5.0 mil/yr cap hit. Kouandro $1.2 mil and preston brown $0.75. so Sammy cost $5 mil/yr while the total cap hit of two 2's & two 3's is $4 mil/yr
quinnearlysghost88 Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 Are you telling me his contributions thus far are contributing as much as two separate first round picks?
thebandit27 Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 Julio Jones has proven he isn't a bust. Sammy hasn't done that yet. As of right now Sammy is on the edge of being considered a bust. He's not a bust by any common definition of the term as it relates to football draft picks. Busts don't accumulate 2,500 yards and 17 TDs in their first 3 seasons, despite missing 11 full games and parts of 3 others. That's what this entire thread is about: he's not a bust, and folks that say he is simply don't understand what the word "bust" means. Sammy has not proven close to being worth the three picks we spent on him. He's got a long way to go. It hasn't all been his fault, but bottom line, the Bills would be a better team if they had just stayed pat and picked any of the other WR's available, and kept the 1st and 4th picks for two more players. I'm fine if you believe that, but that's not what a bust is...a bust is a guy that doesn't produce. Sammy produces at an elite clip when he's given the kind of targets that other #1 WRs are given. Are you telling me his contributions thus far are contributing as much as two separate first round picks? That's not what a bust is...a bust is a player that doesn't contribute. What you're saying is that he hasn't been worth 2 1st round picks...that's not a bust.
Kirby Jackson Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 One thing that seems to be missing here is the view of Sammy before the draft. He was viewed as a safe and dynamic player. He was the kind of guy that comes along every couple of years. Unfortunately, he has suffered some injuries since then. Using hindsight to say the other receivers are better doesn't really work. You wouldn't have found a scout or personnel person in the NFL that didn't have Watkins as the top receiver. I will use this year as a comparison. If Cleveland takes Garrett at 1 and he plays pretty well but Derek Barnett dominates it still doesn't mean that Garrett wasn't the right pick at the time. Right now, Garrett is almost universally viewed as the top defensive player. The decisions on guys are made before they play an NFL game not after 3 years. Watkins was viewed as the highest rated receiver since Julio Jones. He came at a cost similar to Julio Jones. If healthy it is not unrealistic to expect the production of Julio Jones. The Bills paid the price because there was a super high ceiling and very little risk with Watkins. We just aren't the luckiest people and once he got here injuries started.
Billsfan1972 Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 I hate people talking about drafts in hindsight. You don't need a QB but the one who falls to the third/fourth round and becomes a star should have been your pick..... The Bills should by now have drafted Brady, Wilson & Prescott with that logic...... Watkins is a victim of a lousy OC, who has/had little confidence in the passing game and still thinks it is the 1970's. 28th in passing in 2015 & 30th in 2016. A high of 18th in 2014 averaging 225/game proceeded by 28th in 2013. The team has not had a good passing since 2002 (Drew Bledsoe) and outside blips ranking 15th & 18th, almost always in the mid-20's. Used to blame itr on the weather, but it is the coaching and adherence to thinking the ground game will win for you.
PatsFanNH Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 Unless you are going to also consider Julio Jones a bust as well, and if so, simply stop reading at this point because there is nothing to discuss. Yeah...didn't think so. So read on. Jones dealt with the same type of injury as Watkins has...needing 2 fot surgeries to correct it...haven't heard a peep about him being a bust recently, have you?? So let's delve in a little further to how their first 3 years in the NFL compared...Watkins compares pretty favorably on a raw stat line basis I'd say, but when you take a close look at the numbers, its hard not to see that Watkins has actually outperformed Jones in his first 3 years...before you dismiss it out of hand, let's take a look: Jones: 174 catches, 2,737 yards, 20 TDs --- Matt Ryan attempting 1,832 passes over those 3 years Watkins: 153 catches, 2,459 yards, 17 TDs --- Tyrod Taylor and an assortment of other Bills QBs attempting 1,487 passes over those 3 years If we adjust Watkins stats simply for passes attempted, putting them on an even playing field(ie, the Bills throw the ball 350 more times), Watkins stats look like this: Watkins: 188 catches, 3,029 yards, 21 TDs Same foot injury, both needing 2 foot surgeries to come back from it...I'd say Watkins has put up FAR better numbers in his 3 years considering who he has had throwing him the ball and the lack of attempts... For those crying about the "2 first round picks", even though it was only 1, and how it was a terrible move... I think you might want to save that tired, wrong narrative for about 3 more years...Watkins is a stud when healthy, and hopefully this foot issue will be resolved just like Jones' was by a second surgery, and Watkins can do similar things to what Jones has done in years 4-6... Very good post only thing I do differently is (if possible) how many targets each had in the first 3 years. I have a feeling Watkins got a large portion of those attempts his first year or two.
Marty McFly Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 Who in the hell said Watkins is a bust? He is a great player he is just injury prone. Thats not being a bust, that is being INJURY PRONE
Dorkington Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 At 25 passing attempts I still see no reason that at least 10 aren't directed at him. Look at the percentage of targets that other star receivers get (especially those with limited other options). I feel like forcing almost 50% of your passes to one person would limit the offense, personally. I understand the want to see him produce more, though. Also, I think part of the issue is, our WRs mostly run out patterns and have very limited RAC opportunities
Kirby Jackson Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 I feel like forcing almost 50% of your passes to one person would limit the offense, personally. I understand the want to see him produce more, though. Also, I think part of the issue is, our WRs mostly run out patterns and have very limited RAC opportunities That's what happens in NY and Atlanta though. There were games last year where OBJ received 20 targets including 2 weeks ago. He has 169 targets on the year or 10.6 per game. Antonio Brown has averaged over 11 targets a game over the previous 4 years. Julio Jones had 203 targets in 2015 or almost 13 a game!! Sammy has averaged just under 7.5 targets per game in his career. That's a problem. He's at about 2/3 of where he needs to be. If you have a guy, like Sammy, that is open every play what's the danger in pounding it to him? Let the playmaker make plays!!
dave mcbride Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 That's what happens in NY and Atlanta though. There were games last year where OBJ received 20 targets including 2 weeks ago. He has 169 targets on the year or 10.6 per game. Antonio Brown has averaged over 11 targets a game over the previous 4 years. Julio Jones had 203 targets in 2015 or almost 13 a game!! Sammy has averaged just under 7.5 targets per game in his career. That's a problem. He's at about 2/3 of where he needs to be. If you have a guy, like Sammy, that is open every play what's the danger in pounding it to him? Let the playmaker make plays!! To be fair with this numbers, in three seasons Watkins has left a number of games early - Cincy and Miami last season, a couple this season (including the Jets game) and at least one from 2014 (late in the season). With a small sample size, that'll skew the average.
Dorkington Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 (edited) That's what happens in NY and Atlanta though. There were games last year where OBJ received 20 targets including 2 weeks ago. He has 169 targets on the year or 10.6 per game. Antonio Brown has averaged over 11 targets a game over the previous 4 years. Julio Jones had 203 targets in 2015 or almost 13 a game!! Sammy has averaged just under 7.5 targets per game in his career. That's a problem. He's at about 2/3 of where he needs to be. If you have a guy, like Sammy, that is open every play what's the danger in pounding it to him? Let the playmaker make plays!! I'd like to see what percentage of throws they all get, if I have time, I'll dig through the numbers. I want to clarify, I agree that I'd like to see him put up more numbers, but I also question some of it, because he's been limited and we have a run first offense. I'd really like to see him get some slants, instead of outs or fly routes. Edited January 3, 2017 by Dorkington
dave mcbride Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 I'd like to see what percentage of throws they all get, if I have time, I'll dig through the numbers. I do recommend trying to factor in games not finished. Sammy has had to leave a bunch.
Kelly the Dog Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 I do recommend trying to factor in games not finished. Sammy has had to leave a bunch. He got hurt in his very first game and hurt his ribs. He's never really been 100% healthy in any game in his career. Close but not really. Even in the last few games of last year when he dominated he still was playing on a very sore foot that eventually needed substantial surgery. There were games when he was playing when he was just gutting it out, and not at all the threat he normally is, and yet he was still getting open. If he is going to be in the game you have to feed him the ball. You're absolutely right though that the stats are skewed because of several games he couldn't finish.
Kirby Jackson Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 (edited) I do recommend trying to factor in games not finished. Sammy has had to leave a bunch. You have to do that for everyone too if you do it. That becomes quite cumbersome (but I don't disagree that he has left a few games hurt). Edited January 3, 2017 by Kirby Jackson
KD in CA Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 Of course he's not a bust, but it was foolish to spend multiple picks on him under the delusion he could magically turn inaccurate passers into accurate passers. Meanwhile the clock ticks on his rookie contract and the Bills are still not a factor in the AFC. Watkins has the potential to be a great player but sadly also a reminder of the limited vision of Bills' draft day decision making.
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