Wayne Arnold Posted January 2, 2017 Posted January 2, 2017 That is a famous aphorism written by Spanish-born American philosopher George Santayana in his 1905 book The Life of Reason - considered to be one of the most poetic and well-written works of philosophy in Western history. The portion from which the quote is written is appropriately named "Reason in Common Sense." Historical Event #1 After the disappointing season of 2012, the Buffalo Bills decided to release the less-than-stellar yet fairly reliable Ryan Fitzpatrick. Although Fitzpatrick was frustrating at times, he was able to perform admirably on occasion during his three seasons as full-time starter. Fitzpatrick was respected in the locker room for his toughness and leadership qualities and was also well-liked. The issue on those teams were that Fitzpatrick had to carry the team on his back due to having a poor defense and little talent around him on offense (aside from running back). Instead of implementing a run-based play-action scheme with a flawed, limited quarterback, Gailey curiously installed a passing system that struggled to put up points consistently due to not having an elite quarterback to adequately run that type of system and a poor receiving corp. Despite (a) being a durable, dependable, well-respected, and accomplished veteran, (b) having no other quarterbacks on the roster, and © having a very significant dead money cap hit, the Bills decided to release Fitzpatrick anyway. A questionable decision at the time that only got worse with time. Hamstrung by that decision, the Bills signed concussion victim Kevin Kolb and forced themselves into reaching for a quarterback in the first round that April. EJ Manuel was a controversal pick at the time because many throughout the league did not expect him to be chosen before the 3rd or 4th rounds. The pick reeked of desperation. Fast forward to the 2013 season, and low-and-behold the defense is much improved under DC Mike Pettine. Unfortunately, because the Bills did not do their proper research about Kolb's concussion issues and having to start the rookie EJ Manuel (with the occasional appearance by UDFA rookie Jeff Tuel) long before he was ever ready the end result was a team hamstrung by a poor offense. If only they had a dependable veteran quarterback on the roster. Because of the struggles on offense, the Bills finish the season with a 6-10 record and are left scrambling to find a quarterback to replace Manuel in the 2014 season after not drafting one in the 2014 NFL Draft. Historical Event #2 After Doug Marrone quits following a 2014 season in which the defense finished #2 in league in DVOA, new owners Terry and Kim Pegula took the hiring process in their own hands. They knew that had a great thing going with Jim Schwartz running their aggressive 4-3 defense. Promoting Schwartz to head coach was an option. Another option was hiring an offensive-minded HC while retaining Schwartz as the team's successful DC. Both options were considered - rumor has it GM Doug Whaley preferred Benglas OC Hue Jackson and Jackson thought the job was his. Instead, the Pegula's are won over by former Jets HC Rex Ryan. While the thought of Rex prolonging a good defense for many years was intriguing, it was a tremendous risk considering the current defensive system that worked so well would have to be blown up and replaced by a wildly different system with extremely dissimilar philosophies. The plan was to continue dominating on defense and to turn around the offense by bringing in highly-touted run-oriented offensive mind Greg Roman as the offensive coordinator. Matt Cassel was brought in to compete for the starting QB job with EJ Manuel, along with a little-known backup named Tyrod Taylor. Taylor ultimately won the job and led the offense to one of its most efficient seasons in over a decade. However, the defense fell hard - going from #2 DVOA to #24. The unit looked like a fish out of water, often confused before the snap. As a result, the team finished with a disappointing 8-8 record. Those same struggles would be continued almost identically the following season and Rex Ryan would be fired shortly before the end of another disappointing 7-9 season. Learning From History? Or Repeating It? The Buffalo Bills have a golden opportunity to show everyone that they have learned from mistakes of the past and will not repeat them. Will they release Tyrod Taylor and leave a gaping hole at the most important position in sports like they did four years ago? Or will they learn from that mistake and retain the best quarterback this franchise has seen since Doug Flutie? The offense will finish in the Top 10 in DVOA for the second-straight season after not having a team finish that high since 1999. Greg Roman's laid the foundation of a productive offense and Lynn took it and ran with it by orchestrating one of the best offense's in the league despite having a starting quarterback that only finished #17 in passer rating. Will they blow up the offense by not promoting Anthony Lynn to head coach like they did in 2015? Or will they learn from that mistake and retain the system responsible for the best offense we've had since the 1990's? Stay tuned.
DrDawkinstein Posted January 2, 2017 Posted January 2, 2017 Very good post, Wayne. Interesting points and comparison with Fitz/TT and Schwartz/Lynn. I'd still like the Bills to bring in a couple guys like Shanahan and Reich to interview before settling. But your point is strong.
Wayne Arnold Posted January 2, 2017 Author Posted January 2, 2017 Very good post, Wayne. Interesting points and comparison with Fitz/TT and Schwartz/Lynn. I'd still like the Bills to bring in a couple guys like Shanahan and Reich to interview before settling. But your point is strong. I don't mind them doing their due diligence and making sure Lynn is the right guy. That's even more important than continuity. But in the end, keeping this offensive system in tact and bringing in an experienced, talented 4-3 Defensive Coordinator offers us the best chance of winning now.
PromoTheRobot Posted January 2, 2017 Posted January 2, 2017 Man who run in front of car get tired. Man who run behind car get exhausted. Foolish man give wife grand piano, wise man give wife upright organ. Man who walk through airport turnstile sideways going to Bangkok. I kill me.
Tipster19 Posted January 2, 2017 Posted January 2, 2017 (edited) I don'T know if I really agree with all this but I just wanted to recognize a well thought out post. Job well done! Ps-as I have to edit my short response! Lol! Edited January 2, 2017 by Tipster19
DC Tom Posted January 2, 2017 Posted January 2, 2017 You know who else never learned from the past? Hitler!
Gugny Posted January 2, 2017 Posted January 2, 2017 I don't understand how our RB coach from last year, who was promoted to OC after a bull **** firing, who then proceeded to use a dumbed down version of said fired OC's offense ... becoming the HC, would be considered continuity. What are we looking to continue, exactly?
Saxum Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 I don't understand how our RB coach from last year, who was promoted to OC after a bull **** firing, who then proceeded to use a dumbed down version of said fired OC's offense ... becoming the HC, would be considered continuity. What are we looking to continue, exactly? Less gungy team.
Samwell Tarly Posted January 3, 2017 Posted January 3, 2017 (edited) You may have a point. Some people say it's easier to look for your next job while you still have one, the same logic may apply to qbs as well. I know it worked for the Packers a few years back, and the Niners picked up Young while they still had Montana. Buying on opportunity instead of desperation usually leads to a better deal. Edited January 3, 2017 by Jigsaw2112
Saxum Posted January 4, 2017 Posted January 4, 2017 You may have a point. Some people say it's easier to look for your next job while you still have one, the same logic may apply to qbs as well. I know it worked for the Packers a few years back, and the Niners picked up Young while they still had Montana. Buying on opportunity instead of desperation usually leads to a better deal. I agree it is easier to tell a #2 QB is ready for big time by seeing how well he plays when a true #1 is out if they are same type of QB. Some of the scramblers will look good when the issue is OL but it is not a long term solution.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 4, 2017 Posted January 4, 2017 That is a famous aphorism written by Spanish-born American philosopher George Santayana in his 1905 book The Life of Reason - considered to be one of the most poetic and well-written works of philosophy in Western history. The portion from which the quote is written is appropriately named "Reason in Common Sense." Historical Event #1 After the disappointing season of 2012, the Buffalo Bills decided to release the less-than-stellar yet fairly reliable Ryan Fitzpatrick. Although Fitzpatrick was frustrating at times, he was able to perform admirably on occasion during his three seasons as full-time starter. Fitzpatrick was respected in the locker room for his toughness and leadership qualities and was also well-liked. The issue on those teams were that Fitzpatrick had to carry the team on his back due to having a poor defense and little talent around him on offense (aside from running back). Instead of implementing a run-based play-action scheme with a flawed, limited quarterback, Gailey curiously installed a passing system that struggled to put up points consistently due to not having an elite quarterback to adequately run that type of system and a poor receiving corp. Despite (a) being a durable, dependable, well-respected, and accomplished veteran, (b) having no other quarterbacks on the roster, and © having a very significant dead money cap hit, the Bills decided to release Fitzpatrick anyway. A questionable decision at the time that only got worse with time. Hamstrung by that decision, the Bills signed concussion victim Kevin Kolb and forced themselves into reaching for a quarterback in the first round that April. EJ Manuel was a controversal pick at the time because many throughout the league did not expect him to be chosen before the 3rd or 4th rounds. The pick reeked of desperation. Fast forward to the 2013 season, and low-and-behold the defense is much improved under DC Mike Pettine. Unfortunately, because the Bills did not do their proper research about Kolb's concussion issues and having to start the rookie EJ Manuel (with the occasional appearance by UDFA rookie Jeff Tuel) long before he was ever ready the end result was a team hamstrung by a poor offense. If only they had a dependable veteran quarterback on the roster. Because of the struggles on offense, the Bills finish the season with a 6-10 record and are left scrambling to find a quarterback to replace Manuel in the 2014 season after not drafting one in the 2014 NFL Draft. Historical Event #2 After Doug Marrone quits following a 2014 season in which the defense finished #2 in league in DVOA, new owners Terry and Kim Pegula took the hiring process in their own hands. They knew that had a great thing going with Jim Schwartz running their aggressive 4-3 defense. Promoting Schwartz to head coach was an option. Another option was hiring an offensive-minded HC while retaining Schwartz as the team's successful DC. Both options were considered - rumor has it GM Doug Whaley preferred Benglas OC Hue Jackson and Jackson thought the job was his. Instead, the Pegula's are won over by former Jets HC Rex Ryan. While the thought of Rex prolonging a good defense for many years was intriguing, it was a tremendous risk considering the current defensive system that worked so well would have to be blown up and replaced by a wildly different system with extremely dissimilar philosophies. The plan was to continue dominating on defense and to turn around the offense by bringing in highly-touted run-oriented offensive mind Greg Roman as the offensive coordinator. Matt Cassel was brought in to compete for the starting QB job with EJ Manuel, along with a little-known backup named Tyrod Taylor. Taylor ultimately won the job and led the offense to one of its most efficient seasons in over a decade. However, the defense fell hard - going from #2 DVOA to #24. The unit looked like a fish out of water, often confused before the snap. As a result, the team finished with a disappointing 8-8 record. Those same struggles would be continued almost identically the following season and Rex Ryan would be fired shortly before the end of another disappointing 7-9 season. Learning From History? Or Repeating It? The Buffalo Bills have a golden opportunity to show everyone that they have learned from mistakes of the past and will not repeat them. Will they release Tyrod Taylor and leave a gaping hole at the most important position in sports like they did four years ago? Or will they learn from that mistake and retain the best quarterback this franchise has seen since Doug Flutie? The offense will finish in the Top 10 in DVOA for the second-straight season after not having a team finish that high since 1999. Greg Roman's laid the foundation of a productive offense and Lynn took it and ran with it by orchestrating one of the best offense's in the league despite having a starting quarterback that only finished #17 in passer rating. Will they blow up the offense by not promoting Anthony Lynn to head coach like they did in 2015? Or will they learn from that mistake and retain the system responsible for the best offense we've had since the 1990's? Stay tuned. Good post! I 100% agree on retaining Taylor as the best current QB option. Try to improve from there, if you like. What I would like to see the Bills do is similar to the option you suggest Whaley favored - bringing in an offensive-minded HC and trying by every means possible to retain Schwartz. I would like to bring in a defensive-minded HC or a neutral HC (like ST coordinator Toub) and try by every means to retain Lynn. I am concerned that it's difficult for the HC to serve as de-facto coordinator on one side of the ball and often seems to hinder their performance in both roles. I am also concerned that it might be too big of a step to go from RB coach to HC in 1 year, which would be bad for Lynn as it would hinder him getting another shot. I believe that by hiring a defensive-minded coach such as Sean McDermott or Teryl Austin or a coach who is more of an executive type, like perhaps Toub, retaining Lynn as OC, and picking up Tyrod's option, the Bills would grow Lynn's career by letting him take a step that would help him become a HC, and the Bills would have the best chance to take that next step themselves.
QCity Posted January 4, 2017 Posted January 4, 2017 Fans still think it was a mistake to get rid of Fitz. Nothing surprises me anymore.
Wayne Arnold Posted January 4, 2017 Author Posted January 4, 2017 I don't understand how our RB coach from last year, who was promoted to OC after a bull **** firing, who then proceeded to use a dumbed down version of said fired OC's offense ... becoming the HC, would be considered continuity. What are we looking to continue, exactly? A top 10 offense - which is a rarity for this franchise. DVOA 2016 - #10 2015 - #9 2014 - #26 2013 - #25 2012 - #20 2011 - #16 2010 - #26 2009 - #29 2008 - #24 2007 - #23 2006 - #22 2005 - #30 2004 - #21 2003 - #29 2002 - #18 2001 - #21 2000 - #14 1999 - #7 First Top 10 offense since Bill Clinton was POTUS - but let's throw it away like we did with the defense two years ago.
Gugny Posted January 4, 2017 Posted January 4, 2017 A top 10 offense - which is a rarity for this franchise. DVOA 2016 - #10 2015 - #9 2014 - #26 2013 - #25 2012 - #20 2011 - #16 2010 - #26 2009 - #29 2008 - #24 2007 - #23 2006 - #22 2005 - #30 2004 - #21 2003 - #29 2002 - #18 2001 - #21 2000 - #14 1999 - #7 First Top 10 offense since Bill Clinton was POTUS - but let's throw it away like we did with the defense two years ago. Yes, and you should thank the O line, McCoy and Gillislee. The passing game sucked. The offense, in tight games/late in games ... sucked. But yeah ... let's keep going with that. Great idea.
Wayne Arnold Posted January 4, 2017 Author Posted January 4, 2017 Good post! I 100% agree on retaining Taylor as the best current QB option. Try to improve from there, if you like. What I would like to see the Bills do is similar to the option you suggest Whaley favored - bringing in an offensive-minded HC and trying by every means possible to retain Schwartz. I would like to bring in a defensive-minded HC or a neutral HC (like ST coordinator Toub) and try by every means to retain Lynn. I am concerned that it's difficult for the HC to serve as de-facto coordinator on one side of the ball and often seems to hinder their performance in both roles. I am also concerned that it might be too big of a step to go from RB coach to HC in 1 year, which would be bad for Lynn as it would hinder him getting another shot. I believe that by hiring a defensive-minded coach such as Sean McDermott or Teryl Austin or a coach who is more of an executive type, like perhaps Toub, retaining Lynn as OC, and picking up Tyrod's option, the Bills would grow Lynn's career by letting him take a step that would help him become a HC, and the Bills would have the best chance to take that next step themselves. Anthony Lynn has been an Assistant Head Coach for five years. That's more experience than anyone on the list right. He understands the intricacies of being a HC in the NFL. Yes, and you should thank the O line, McCoy and Gillislee. The passing game sucked. The offense, in tight games/late in games ... sucked. But yeah ... let's keep going with that. Great idea. Tell me how the OLine, McCoy and Gillislee did on Sunday. Also, provide real information that proves that the offense sucked in tight games/late in games using the other 31 offenses as a comparison. I don't care about your own personal preferences or agendas. 10th best is 10th best.
John from Riverside Posted January 4, 2017 Posted January 4, 2017 Anthony Lynn has been an Assistant Head Coach for five years. That's more experience than anyone on the list right. He understands the intricacies of being a HC in the NFL. Tell me how the OLine, McCoy and Gillislee did on Sunday. Also, provide real information that proves that the offense sucked in tight games/late in games using the other 31 offenses as a comparison. I don't care about your own personal preferences or agendas. 10th best is 10th best. Yes it is interesting how the O line McCoy and Touchdown Mike were affected by having a different qb back there......the way some would make it sound you could stick ANYONE back there and do the same thing Apparently not
Gugny Posted January 4, 2017 Posted January 4, 2017 Anthony Lynn has been an Assistant Head Coach for five years. That's more experience than anyone on the list right. He understands the intricacies of being a HC in the NFL. Tell me how the OLine, McCoy and Gillislee did on Sunday. Also, provide real information that proves that the offense sucked in tight games/late in games using the other 31 offenses as a comparison. I don't care about your own personal preferences or agendas. 10th best is 10th best. Yes, let's use the last game of the season as the illustrating point. Brilliant. I provided a link in another thread with regard to the offense in tight games/late in games. I can't find it right now, but it's out there. We ranked very low. My personal preference is for the Bills to be a good football team. If finishing below .500 with the 31st ranked passing game in the league is what your preference is, then good on you. I want better.
Maury Ballstein Posted January 4, 2017 Posted January 4, 2017 Yes, and you should thank the O line, McCoy and Gillislee. The passing game sucked. The offense, in tight games/late in games ... sucked. But yeah ... let's keep going with that. Great idea. This. Could care less they score more than pukes like Trenative, Fitz, Losman, Collins, and Manuel. Let TT walk yesterday.
Wayne Arnold Posted January 4, 2017 Author Posted January 4, 2017 This. Could care less they score more than pukes like Trenative, Fitz, Losman, Collins, and Manuel. Let TT walk yesterday. Good luck with that.
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