Odds of 17 Year Playoff Drought 1 in @ 6 million

[QB Bills]

To help explain why 1 in 6 million is not wrong, consider a much more simple example.

 

What are the odds of flipping a coin and getting heads 17 times a row?

 

The probability of getting heads 1 time is .5. That is because there is only 1 way to flip heads, but 2 possible outcomes. 1/2 = .5

 

To calculate the odds of flipping a heads 17 times in a row, you must multiply .5 x .5 x.5 x .5 (continuing until you have multiplied 17 .5s together).

 

That yields a decimal of .0000076, rounding to keep it somewhat simple and not end up with too many decimal places.

 

Expressing that decimal as a fraction in reduced terms gives you 19/25,000,000.

 

​So the odds of flipping a heads 17 times in a row are @ 19 in 25 million.

Guessing your school didn't have a math department..

[May Day 10]

Now calculate the odds of also never having a top 2 pick and only playing one meaningful week 17 game in that span.

 

It really is incredible to have been stuck in this purgatory for almost two decades. Mathematically, it's next to impossible.

 

This is the most amazing part of this, really. It is remarkable how this franchise has dropped anchor in the mediocre zone.

 

And why I cant take people seriously when they say that we are 'close'... they have been right here, give or take a few games for going on 2 decades. They beat almost all the bad teams, and lost to all the good teams. Its the same movie... and we are going to see it again next season

[Fadingpain]

1/2 or .5 to the 17th power is .00000762939.

 

I then chopped it down to .0000076 for ease of lifting.

 

I then converted that into a fraction so as to better express it as "odds" in terms people can relate to, and then reduced.

 

As I spelled out above.

I'm curious Tom.

 

What do you think the odds of flipping a head on a coin 17 times in a row are?

 

Calculate it and show us your math.

[PolishDave]

 

This is the most amazing part of this, really. It is remarkable how this franchise has dropped anchor in the mediocre zone.

 

And why I cant take people seriously when they say that we are 'close'... they have been right here, give or take a few games for going on 2 decades. They beat almost all the bad teams, and lost to all the good teams. Its the same movie... and we are going to see it again next season

 

The trend is your friend as stock traders would say.

[Fadingpain]

 

0.5 is 1/2. 0.5 to the 17th power is 1/2 to the 17th power, which is (1^17)/(2^17). Since 1 to any power is 1, all you're doing raising .5 to the 17th power is calculating 2^17.

 

The question isn't why am I raising 2 to the 17th power. The question is: how did you NOT know YOU were raising 2 to the 17th power?

 

And that's still not how you !@#$ed up your math.

I see where you f-ed up in your calculation! LOL

 

You are incorrectly simplifying it in your head and eliminating the fractional aspect of it.

 

It's not 2^17 or 131,072.

 

It's 1/2^17 or .00000762939.

 

Not only do you have a massive low self esteem problem, you're a f-ing idiot.

[DC Tom]

1/2 or .5 to the 17th power is .00000762939.

 

I then chopped it down to .0000076 for ease of lifting.

 

I then converted that into a fraction so as to better express it as "odds" in terms people can relate to, and then reduced.

 

As I spelled out above.

 

And. You. !@#$ed. It. Up.

 

And you're still missing the point that you could have more easily expressed it as odds by saying "1 chance in 2^17," or "1 chance in 131,072.

 

Or we can do it with logarithms. You wanna do it with logarithms? Let's approximate it with logarithms. Log base 10 of 2 is about 0.3. So log base 10 of 2^17 is 0.3*17, or about 5.1. Meaning 2^17 is about 10^5.1. 10^5 is 100,000. The tenth root of ten is about 1.25 (Log base 2 of 10 is about 3.3. So log base 2 of the tenth root of ten is about 1/3. Cube root of 2 is about 1.25.) So 2^17 is approximately 125,000.

 

Or how about a binomial expansion? I'll let you do that one. Show your work.

I see where you f-ed up in your calculation! LOL

 

You are incorrectly simplifying it in your head and eliminating the fractional aspect of it.

 

It's not 2^17 or 131,072.

 

It's 1/2^17 or .00000762939.

 

Not only do you have a massive low self esteem problem, you're a f-ing idiot.

 

You suck at math. Whats 1/131,072?

[Wayne Cubed]

To help explain why 1 in 6 million is not wrong, consider a much more simple example.

 

What are the odds of flipping a coin and getting heads 17 times a row?

 

The probability of getting heads 1 time is .5. That is because there is only 1 way to flip heads, but 2 possible outcomes. 1/2 = .5

 

To calculate the odds of flipping a heads 17 times in a row, you must multiply .5 x .5 x.5 x .5 (continuing until you have multiplied 17 .5s together).

 

That yields a decimal of .0000076, rounding to keep it somewhat simple and not end up with too many decimal places.

 

Expressing that decimal as a fraction in reduced terms gives you 19/25,000,000.

 

​So the odds of flipping a heads 17 times in a row are @ 19 in 25 million.

Wow you are all kinds of special, and wrong.

 

(1/2)^17 or 1^17 / 2^17

 

Or it has 1 chance in 131,072.

 

There is no need for decimals.

[Drey]

I see where you f-ed up in your calculation! LOL

 

You are incorrectly simplifying it in your head and eliminating the fractional aspect of it.

 

It's not 2^17 or 131,072.

 

It's 1/2^17 or .00000762939.

 

Not only do you have a massive low self esteem problem, you're a f-ing idiot.

 

When flipping a coin 17 times in a row, there are 2^17 = 131,072 possible outcomes of head/tail sequences. The chances of getting a particular outcome (all heads) is then 1/131,072.

 

The problem with your math is that 0.00000762939 (7.62939e-6) expressed as a fraction is not 19/25,000,000. It's 1/131,072.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- One in 6 million. Well, one in approximately 6 million.

That was the probability, according to ESPN Stats & Information, that the Buffalo Bills would miss the playoffs from the 2000 through 2016 seasons. For mathematical purposes, that calculation assumes each team had an equal chance of qualifying for the postseason each year.

The Bills, with their dramatic, 34-31 overtime loss Saturday to the Miami Dolphins, beat the long odds against their run of futility and extended their postseason drought to 17 seasons. Already the longest drought among North America's four major professional sports leagues, it is now tied for the fifth-longest postseason drought in NFL history -- and already stands as the only drought that took place entirely after the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.

 

 

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Y6YOQfIs7WQJ:https://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/27027/bills-playoff-drought-now-17-seasons-beats-one-in-six-million-odds+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

Hmmmmm... that assumption is the foundation of a pointless article.

 

In this fictitious universe where playoff teams are randomly selected with equal probability, how do they explain the existence of point spreads?

 

If the opening coin toss decided the outcome of every single game, then we'd be right to grouse about defying the odds. Or more likely there would have been multiple playoff berths over the past 16 years and not our current reality.

 

If you want to talk odds, how about a 6th round QB having a HoF careeer

[Blaise321]

I am 100% sure I did not understand anything in this thread . I am also sure that I will be Back next season with a feeling in my gut that the Bills have a 1/6,000,000 chance of going to the playoffs. (sigh)

 

Although, I have to admit, it was kinda fun watching all you math guys debate.

[CodeMonkey]

Hmmmmm... that assumption is the foundation of a pointless article.

 

In this fictitious universe where playoff teams are randomly selected with equal probability, how do they explain the existence of point spreads?

 

If the opening coin toss decided the outcome of every single game, then we'd be right to grouse about defying the odds. Or more likely there would have been multiple playoff berths over the past 16 years and not our current reality.

 

If you want to talk odds, how about a 6th round QB having a HoF careeer

Plus taking into account the current NFL model is to try and promote equity by giving the worst teams the best draft picks every year instead of a simple lottery complicates the matter as well. A simple coin flip 1/2^17 pretty much has no bearing. But it suffices to say the Bills are definitely bucking the odds given the current draft pick policy by going 17 consecutive seasons.

 

Though it might be a fun question to pose to the people at 538.

 

​EDIT: I asked, we'll see.

Edited December 30, 2016 by CodeMonkey

[All I Need is Hope]

In any scenario or calculation methodology, it's staggering that a team can miss for 17 years in a row. Especially considering that the league is designed to give poorly run teams a fighting chance to catch up (e.g. - bad teams picking higher in the draft, given first dibs on waived players).

 

This mess is deep-seeded, cultural and can be traced directly to bad decisions by ownership and top leadership (and never being able to find a consistently above average QB).

 

Any way you slice it, they need a complete house-cleaning; and to bring in a highly capable / objective / respected set of external eyes (multiple people, specializing in building high-performing cultures and an "operating system" ala "The Steeler or Patriot Way") to evaluate the entire organization, create a unifying vision, and taking steps to operationalize the vision... for the last 17 years, they've been drifting aimlessly, in a league that will eat you alive without the above elements.

[chaccof]

OMG - I just had a flash back to senior year math at WEHS....because I was/am not able to grasp anything beyond algebra I have been forced to live the life of thinking the Bills actually just sucked for 17 years....i had no idea the odds of accomplishing that feat.....we need a shirt or a hat or something to memorialize this.....

[Rico]

When it comes to football, stats are for losers. Speaking of losers, if Ralph was the owner and his right hand man Russ is still around, then 17 years of no playoffs was close to a lock.

 

Soon to be 18 and counting.

[Big Turk]

Wouldn't the odds be:

 

(20/32)^17 = 1 in 2,951

No because that's not factoring in compounding, meaning the chances of missing each of the 17 seasons grows more remote the longer it goes on, as in, just by dumb luck at some point the team SHOULD make it once in 17 years

[metzelaars_lives]

@?

[CodeMonkey]

When it comes to football, stats are for losers. Speaking of losers, if Ralph was the owner and his right hand man Russ is still around, then 17 years of no playoffs was close to a lock.

 

Soon to be 18 and counting.

Yeah apparently that's how Ryan thinks as well. Just sayin.

[Estro]

What's just as mind blowing is that in all 17 years we've only been alive going into week 17 once (2004). Other than that 2004 season we've been eliminated prior to week 17 which is almost just as astonishing.

 

Death, Taxes, and a meaningless Bills week 17 game, at least this millennium.

[Hardcore Bills Fan]

I'm going to Vegas then because this team is bad and it'll take the new HC a couple years to fix it.

[Dr.Sack]

Why don't we blow it up and rebuild from scratch?