Fadingpain Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 (edited) ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- One in 6 million. Well, one in approximately 6 million. That was the probability, according to ESPN Stats & Information, that the Buffalo Bills would miss the playoffs from the 2000 through 2016 seasons. For mathematical purposes, that calculation assumes each team had an equal chance of qualifying for the postseason each year. The Bills, with their dramatic, 34-31 overtime loss Saturday to the Miami Dolphins, beat the long odds against their run of futility and extended their postseason drought to 17 seasons. Already the longest drought among North America's four major professional sports leagues, it is now tied for the fifth-longest postseason drought in NFL history -- and already stands as the only drought that took place entirely after the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Y6YOQfIs7WQJ:https://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/27027/bills-playoff-drought-now-17-seasons-beats-one-in-six-million-odds+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us Edited December 29, 2016 by Fadingpain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan130 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 It can`t be that long. That seems pretty crazy to me. Even 1 in a million seems pretty extreme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cereal Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Wouldn't the odds be: (20/32)^17 = 1 in 2,951 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan130 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Wouldn't the odds be: (20/32)^17 = 1 in 2,951 That sounds way more realistic than 1 in 6 million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cereal Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 (edited) Wouldn't the odds be: (20/32)^17 = 1 in 2,951 Actually, it's worse than I originally thought. Since there were only 31 teams in 2000 and 2001: Edit: Nevermind, There were 16 teams in the AFC all 17 years, so odds of missing playoffs were 10/16 (or 20/32) every year. Edited December 29, 2016 by Cereal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All_Pro_Bills Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 The 6 million sounds like is might be simple random probability. You might need to consider that each team has a 25% chance of winning a division title but in the case of the Bills their actual chance of winning the division has been close to 0% given the Patriots dominance. Which leave you with a 16.7% chance of getting a wildcard spot. Statistically, I'm not sure how that works out to odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Wouldn't the odds be: (20/32)^17 = 1 in 2,951 Sounds right to me. Still pretty depressing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Day 10 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 (edited) I have a 00.033881317890172014% Probablilty. so yeah, 1 in 2,951 sounds close. Celebrate! Edited December 29, 2016 by May Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDH Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 I have a 00.033881317890172014% Probablilty. so yeah, 1 in 2,951 sounds close. Celebrate! Yeah, it sounds like they calculated the odds of them making the playoffs for 17 straight years, not missing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Wouldn't the odds be: (20/32)^17 = 1 in 2,951 No, because teams only have three chances of making the playoffs each year: win the division, or be one of two wild-cards. And they compete for the division against three other teams, and for the wild-cards against eleven (twelve minus the winner of that team's division. Although it's really eight, since there's four division winners not competing for the wild-card spots each year...but that math gets very complicated very fast.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 In a very sad way, it is pretty amazing what the Bills have done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 The Sabres are on the path to six straight years with no playoffs in a league where 16 out of 30 teams make it every year. Mathematically, what is the more difficult feat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick the Greek Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 The calculation assumes: "For mathematical purposes, that calculation assumes each team had an equal chance of qualifying for the postseason each year." Come on.. that isn't the way sports works at all. You are failing to account for good players, coaches, management, etc. This random number is meaningless to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 The calculation assumes: "For mathematical purposes, that calculation assumes each team had an equal chance of qualifying for the postseason each year." Come on.. that isn't the way sports works at all. You are failing to account for good players, coaches, management, etc. This random number is meaningless to me. The number isn't "random." You aren't one of the 42% of Americans who believes in creationism, are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishDave Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 (edited) No, because teams only have three chances of making the playoffs each year: win the division, or be one of two wild-cards. And they compete for the division against three other teams, and for the wild-cards against eleven (twelve minus the winner of that team's division. Although it's really eight, since there's four division winners not competing for the wild-card spots each year...but that math gets very complicated very fast.) Wouldn't it be? Odds of missing playoffs in division = 3/4 minus odds of being a conference wildcard team = 2/12 Convert to common fractions 3/4 = 9/12 9/12 - 2/12 = 7/12 or 58.333333% chance of missing the playoffs each year calculated over 16 years? which would equal .000179750 which translates into 719/4000000 or 719 chances in 4 million Where is the math wrong? What are the odds of the Bills or any NFL team missing the playoffs 16 years in a row? Final Answer = What is 719 in 4 million Alex? or if you want to approximate it = 1 in 5563 Quick, somebody email Matt Patricia and ask him if I am right. Edited December 30, 2016 by PolishDave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick the Greek Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 The number isn't "random." You aren't one of the 42% of Americans who believes in creationism, are you? the number assumes all teams have the same chance to make the playoffs. So the Bills have the same chance to make the playoffs as the Patriots or Steelers EVERY SINGLE YEAR. Really? In what universe is this even remotely logical? Those teams are better than the Bills. But yea, our luck is so bad we are 1 in 6 million. Whatever helps you sleep at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wagon Circler Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Never Tell Me the Odds . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr.Sack Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 What are the odds that Russ Brandon gets fired? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chaccof Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Wouldn't the odds be: (20/32)^17 = 1 in 2,951 You did well on the Calculus Regent Exam, didn't you? Show off...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nedboy7 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 Maybe you need to become a Patriots fan. You will be happy almost every year except the years they don't win the Superbowl in which case you will be calling for the coach's head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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