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Odds of 17 Year Playoff Drought 1 in @ 6 million

Fadingpain

By Fadingpain
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Fadingpain All Pro

Fadingpain

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ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- One in 6 million. Well, one in approximately 6 million.

That was the probability, according to ESPN Stats & Information, that the Buffalo Bills would miss the playoffs from the 2000 through 2016 seasons. For mathematical purposes, that calculation assumes each team had an equal chance of qualifying for the postseason each year.

The Bills, with their dramatic, 34-31 overtime loss Saturday to the Miami Dolphins, beat the long odds against their run of futility and extended their postseason drought to 17 seasons. Already the longest drought among North America's four major professional sports leagues, it is now tied for the fifth-longest postseason drought in NFL history -- and already stands as the only drought that took place entirely after the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.

 

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Y6YOQfIs7WQJ:https://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/27027/bills-playoff-drought-now-17-seasons-beats-one-in-six-million-odds+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

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Cereal RFA

Cereal

Posted
Posted (edited)

Wouldn't the odds be:

 

(20/32)^17 = 1 in 2,951

Actually, it's worse than I originally thought. Since there were only 31 teams in 2000 and 2001:

 

Edit: Nevermind, There were 16 teams in the AFC all 17 years, so odds of missing playoffs were 10/16 (or 20/32) every year. :thumbsup:

Edited by Cereal
All_Pro_Bills All Pro

All_Pro_Bills

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The 6 million sounds like is might be simple random probability.

 

You might need to consider that each team has a 25% chance of winning a division title but in the case of the Bills their actual chance of winning the division has been close to 0% given the Patriots dominance. Which leave you with a 16.7% chance of getting a wildcard spot. Statistically, I'm not sure how that works out to odds.

MDH All Pro

MDH

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I have a 00.033881317890172014% Probablilty.

 

so yeah, 1 in 2,951 sounds close.

 

 

 

Celebrate!

 

 

Yeah, it sounds like they calculated the odds of them making the playoffs for 17 straight years, not missing them.

DC Tom Hall of Famer

DC Tom

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Wouldn't the odds be:

 

(20/32)^17 = 1 in 2,951

 

No, because teams only have three chances of making the playoffs each year: win the division, or be one of two wild-cards. And they compete for the division against three other teams, and for the wild-cards against eleven (twelve minus the winner of that team's division. Although it's really eight, since there's four division winners not competing for the wild-card spots each year...but that math gets very complicated very fast.)

Nick the Greek Veteran

Nick the Greek

Posted
Posted

The calculation assumes:

 

"For mathematical purposes, that calculation assumes each team had an equal chance of qualifying for the postseason each year."

 

Come on.. that isn't the way sports works at all. You are failing to account for good players, coaches, management, etc. This random number is meaningless to me.

Fadingpain All Pro

Fadingpain

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The calculation assumes:

 

"For mathematical purposes, that calculation assumes each team had an equal chance of qualifying for the postseason each year."

 

Come on.. that isn't the way sports works at all. You are failing to account for good players, coaches, management, etc. This random number is meaningless to me.

The number isn't "random."

 

You aren't one of the 42% of Americans who believes in creationism, are you?

PolishDave Veteran

PolishDave

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

No, because teams only have three chances of making the playoffs each year: win the division, or be one of two wild-cards. And they compete for the division against three other teams, and for the wild-cards against eleven (twelve minus the winner of that team's division. Although it's really eight, since there's four division winners not competing for the wild-card spots each year...but that math gets very complicated very fast.)

 

Wouldn't it be?

 

Odds of missing playoffs in division = 3/4

 

minus

 

odds of being a conference wildcard team = 2/12

 

Convert to common fractions 3/4 = 9/12

 

9/12 - 2/12 = 7/12

 

or 58.333333% chance of missing the playoffs each year

 

calculated over 16 years?

 

which would equal

 

.000179750

 

which translates into

 

719/4000000

 

or 719 chances in 4 million

 

Where is the math wrong?

 

 

What are the odds of the Bills or any NFL team missing the playoffs 16 years in a row?

 

Final Answer = What is 719 in 4 million Alex?

 

or if you want to approximate it = 1 in 5563

 

 

Quick, somebody email Matt Patricia and ask him if I am right.

Edited by PolishDave
Nick the Greek Veteran

Nick the Greek

Posted
Posted

The number isn't "random."

 

You aren't one of the 42% of Americans who believes in creationism, are you?

the number assumes all teams have the same chance to make the playoffs.

 

So the Bills have the same chance to make the playoffs as the Patriots or Steelers EVERY SINGLE YEAR.

 

Really? In what universe is this even remotely logical? Those teams are better than the Bills.

 

But yea, our luck is so bad we are 1 in 6 million. Whatever helps you sleep at night.

chaccof RFA

chaccof

Posted
Posted

Wouldn't the odds be:

 

(20/32)^17 = 1 in 2,951

You did well on the Calculus Regent Exam, didn't you? Show off...... :lol:

nedboy7 All Pro

nedboy7

Posted
Posted

Maybe you need to become a Patriots fan. You will be happy almost every year except the years they don't win the Superbowl in which case you will be calling for the coach's head.

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