Interesting take from OverTheCap

[Buffalo Barbarian]

http://overthecap.com/looking-tyrod-taylor-rex-ryan-buffalo-bills/

 

Some highlights of the read

 

 

It was another busy day in the NFL with the Buffalo Bills firing head coach Rex Ryan and subsequently benching quarterback Tyrod Taylor in large part because of his contract. Taylor, a favorite of Ryans, had been rumored for some time to have fallen out of favor with the organization, who would have preferred to evaluate other players. Taylor had been on my list of likely quarterback cuts and may have been the most controversial selection on there since many in Buffalo believe he is the teams best player.

 

Realistically these are the kind of players that the franchise tag is made for in the event that all the leverage that the team has still does not force the player to take a team friendly contract. Look at the situation with Kirk Cousins in Washington and compare it to this one. The Bills assumed a majority of the risk because Taylor expressed that he was unhappy with his contract.

 

By benching Taylor the Bills have now shifted some leverage back to them. Obviously his injury guarantee will not kick in at this point unless he is injured in practice. Benching him also sends the signal that if he wants to remain in Buffalo he will need to renegotiate his contract to reflect a more realistic valuation.

 

While Taylor has shown that he has more potential than people thought the fact is he is still a pretty raw talent. I look at what the Browns did with Griffin, what Denver wanted to pay Kaepernick, and what the Jets wanted to pay Fitzpatrick and think that the majority of interested teams would peg him between $7 and $9 million per year with the ability to double or earn 2.5X that based on incentives being reached across a two year contract. But if a team has fallen in love with him I could see close to $15 million a year but with a structure that looks more Dalton than Newton. Either way the Bills should be able to get him on a better structured contract if they want to retain him and he wants to return.

 

 

Overall good read

 

if another team wants him for 15 then sign and trade him.

[simpleman]

 

The point is, it was a "prove it year" contract for Taylor, to show that he's taken that step and can lead 4th Q comebacks, step up into his throwing lanes, etc. It said we'll pay you more this year, in order to gain right of first refusal if you take that step. He didn't play badly at all, but he didn't take that step, either. The market for a starting QB running a bottom-of-the-pack passing game will surely be more limited. So it comes down to, if the Bills want him, does he want to stay or does he want to test the market?

I understand your view of reality, but I see it differently. I see more regression than I see progression. He was in a prove it year. and failed to prove he was not already at his ceiling. He is a simply passable, average, mediocre QB. You may be happy with an average mediocre football team that consistently is mediocre and average, like the Bills have been for so many years. To me constant years of 7-9, 6-9, 8-8 with a peak of 9-7 are not good enough. I don't expect the Bills to win the SB, but I want to actually have the excitement of being in the playoffs and thinking "wow, we could somehow make it",even if for only one game. I view the NFL as three seasons. Preseason, where you select your players and build your team. The regular season, where the teams fight to get a chance to play for the actual goal of the game, being the best. And the real season, the playoffs. The regular season is just the elimination round when teams fight to qualify to play the real games. If we are not in the playoffs,we are just the unworthy has beens who are not good enough to qualify for the real thing. TT is not good enough to make a mediocre team worthy. If all you want is mediocre, than pay the guy way too much just to remain a mediocre,not good enough team.I want a real team to root for. Not one who can beat other mediocre teams, but falls apart when they play real teams.

[CSBill]

 

Interesting to me was commentary on Rex:

"Not surprisingly many of the same mistakes Rex had with the Jets were still there with the Bills. Whether it was too many men on the field, too few men on the field, too many bad penalties, wasting time outs, or a lack of offensive focus the story of Rex in Buffalo was no different than with the Jets except he never had the talent in Buffalo that he had in New York in 2009 and 2010, which were the two seasons in which he made his name as a coach."

 

I'd like to hear others takes on whether it's true Rex never had the talent in B'lo that he had in NY in 2009/2010. I would say it is not true. Rex had a D that had been #4 overall in 2014; Rex 2009 D was #1, his 2010 D #6 on points/3 on yds.

Comparable performance argues comparable talent to me. On offense, I would say about the same - a bit better on QB and RB, worse on WR.

 

I would agree, he did have the talent. And same thing happened with the Jets.

 

I do not recall who it was, but someone on the NFL Network was discussing the "Rex Defensive Genius" is a huge stretch. In Baltimore, he had Ray Lewis and company--any coach would look good with them, in NY he inherited Mangini's defense--it was still good for two years, but in time Rex's influence was to take it to the middle of the league. Just like he did in Buffalo.

 

I hated the hire from the start. But as a fan, I was willing to give it a chance. He stayed too long in my opinion.

 

if another team wants him for 15 then sign and trade him.

 

I would agree, as long as there is a viable alternative.

[BuffaloHokie13]

 

if another team wants him for 15 then sign and trade him.

Wouldn't we still be on the hook for the bonus if we traded him? I feel like to successfully pull off this trade, it'd need to be complete before the bonus is set to be paid.

[MAJBobby]

Wouldn't we still be on the hook for the bonus if we traded him? I feel like to successfully pull off this trade, it'd need to be complete before the bonus is set to be paid.

The option bonus if we picked it up yes. Prorated signing bonusnif we do a new deal with a signing bonus.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

if another team wants him for 15 then sign and trade him.

 

That would actually be a bad deal for the Bills since it would leave them with a lot of dead cap for his option bonus.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I understand your view of reality, but I see it differently. I see more regression than I see progression. He was in a prove it year. and failed to prove he was not already at his ceiling. He is a simply passable, average, mediocre QB. You may be happy with an average mediocre football team that consistently is mediocre and average, like the Bills have been for so many years. To me constant years of 7-9, 6-9, 8-8 with a peak of 9-7 are not good enough. I don't expeYou may be happy with an average mediocre football team that consistently is mediocre and average, like the Bills have been for so many years. To me constant years of 7-9, 6-9, 8-8 with a peak of 9-7 are not good enough. I don't expect the Bills to win the SB, but I want to actually have the excitement of being in the playoffs and thinking "wow, we could somehow make it",even if for only one game. I view the NFL as three seasons. Preseason, where you select your players and build your team. The regular season, where the teams fight to get a chance to play for the actual goal of the game, being the best. And the real season, the playoffs. The regular season is just the elimination round when teams fight to qualify to play the real games. If we are not in the playoffs,we ct the Bills to win the SB, but I want to actually have the excitement of being in the playoffs and thinking "wow, we could somehow make it",even if for only one game. I view the NFL as three seasons. Preseason, where you select your players and build your team. The regular season, where the teams fight to get a chance to play for the actual goal of the game, being the best. And the real season, the playoffs. The regular season is just the elimination round when teams fight to qualify to play the real games. If we are not in the playoffs,we are just the unworthy has beens who are not good enough to qualify for the real thing. TT is not good enough to make a mediocre team worthy. If all you want is mediocre, than pay the guy way too much just to remain a mediocre,not good enough team.I want a real team to root for. Not one who can beat other mediocre teams, but falls apart when they play real teams.

 

Dear Simpleman,

 

I don't think you understand what I'm saying in the post you're following, much less "my view of reality", which tends strongly to be linked to objective criteria.

 

"Regression" has a commonly understood meaning when applied to athletes. It is used to describe a performance that falls off markedly. For example, in 2014, Nick Foles threw 10 INTs in 8 games whereas in 2013, he threw 2 INTs in 13 games. Fitzpatrick in 2016 vs 2015 would be another example of regression.As far as Taylor's "regression vs progression", can you support what you see as "regression" with some objective metric? The statistics say he was really quite consistent between 2015 and 2016, especially given that he was playing with scraps at WR much of the year.

 

I don't think Taylor progressed, but the view that he didn't regress matches the objective criteria available.

 

As far as what I was saying in the post to which you reply, no where do I say or imply that "You may be happy with an average mediocre football team that consistently is mediocre and average, like the Bills have been for so many years. To me constant years of 7-9, 6-9, 8-8 with a peak of 9-7 are not good enough. I don't expeYou may be happy with an average mediocre football team that consistently is mediocre and average, like the Bills have been for so many years. To me constant years of 7-9, 6-9, 8-8 with a peak of 9-7 are not good enough". That is not "my view of reality" which you understand, it is your straw man or dead horse that you are projecting on me and beating.

 

Quite simply, if you want the Bills to ditch Taylor, the question becomes, "what is the viable alternative at QB and where do we obtain him?" And your answer is?

 

A secondary question is: "do teams make it into the playoffs with passable average QBs under center?" and the answer is "yes, every year, 3 or 4 of the playoff teams could arguably describe their QB that way"

 

To be perfectly clear, I do not see Taylor as the Bills long term answer at QB. But neither do I see tossing him to the curb without a clearly better alternative as a strategy for success. I don't think Taylor kept the Bills out of the playoffs this year; I think game mismanagement, poor discipline, and a bottom-scraping run D did so. I think the Bills set themselves back and arguably hindered or ruined the development of a draftee QB when they tossed Fitzpatrick to the curb and took on the historically fragile Mr Kolb as a "clearly better alternative". It is also clear historically that drafting a rookie, even a top rookie, is not an immediate "clearly better alternative". In another post, I analyzed QB drafted since 2014 and showed this.

 

I look to the Philly Eagles as a model for how to acquire a better QB - they did not toss Foles to the curb after deciding he wasn't their answer, they kept him, traded for a QB with potential to be better, signed the most promising 2nd tier FA they could, then traded up to draft a QB. They went "all in" and it appears to be paying off for them. For the "curb kicking greener grass" model, look to the Houston Texans. Yeah, pretty, isn't it?

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

 

The only thing I read about QB was the single statement "It’s possible they will be looking for a plug in starter ala Foles, Kaepernick, etc… if Taylor is not retained." That's not much of an explanation of "why they would be good options" If anyone thinks Foles or Kaep would be a clear upgrade to Taylor I would kinda like some of what they're smokin' and I disagree on the "plug in starter" notion.

 

Kaep suffers many of the same limitations as Taylor as a passer, and for some reason fell off dramatically and has never recovered. People who hate on Taylor for his ~210 passing ypg and 37 TD in 29 games will be enchanted with Kaep's ~180 ypg and 21 TD per 18 games last 2 years.

 

Foles likewise had one fantastic year and has not been the same guy since, but given his contract, he's gonna be cut if he doesn't reno; KC owes him the big bucks next year, $10.75M with nothing guaranteed.

So he'll likely be on the market. He's more intriguing - StL may have been an anomaly, not a well coached team with a good line. His one game for KC this year was very very good. But his last 2 seasons as a starter were not.

 

I remember the deal being described like this:

 

The cost for cutting Taylor this year is not that huge. As it stands now, if we keep him he gets a big pay day, and guarantees go in, but they are spread over the next five years. If the Bills keep the current contract, and he doesn't renegotiate, the Bills take a big dead money hit in 2018 but still get back some cap space. As they proved with Mario, they are ready to pull the plug if they see diminishing returns.

 

So the question isn't: do the Bills ask Tyrod to give away $25M in guarantees? It's "Are you willing to lessen your cap hit this year to get some more talent around you and make it harder for you to get cut, or are you betting on having such a great season in 2017 that you are indispensable in 2018."

[Dorkington]

I'm still not seeing another QB option that I'd prefer over Tyrod. Sure we can save a few bucks with a worse QB, but will that get us to the playoffs?

[simpleman]

 

Dear Simpleman,

 

I don't think you understand what I'm saying in the post you're following, much less "my view of reality", which tends strongly to be linked to objective criteria.

 

"Regression" has a commonly understood meaning when applied to athletes. It is used to describe a performance that falls off markedly. For example, in 2014, Nick Foles threw 10 INTs in 8 games whereas in 2013, he threw 2 INTs in 13 games. Fitzpatrick in 2016 vs 2015 would be another example of regression.As far as Taylor's "regression vs progression", can you support what you see as "regression" with some objective metric? The statistics say he was really quite consistent between 2015 and 2016, especially given that he was playing with scraps at WR much of the year.

 

I don't think Taylor progressed, but the view that he didn't regress matches the objective criteria available.

 

 

Quite simply, if you want the Bills to ditch Taylor, the question becomes, "what is the viable alternative at QB and where do we obtain him?" And your answer is?

 

A secondary question is: "do teams make it into the playoffs with passable average QBs under center?" and the answer is "yes, every year, 3 or 4 of the playoff teams could arguably describe their QB that way"

 

To be perfectly clear, I do not see Taylor as the Bills long term answer at QB. But neither do I see tossing him to the curb without a clearly better alternative as a strategy for success. It is also clear historically that drafting a rookie, even a top rookie, is not an immediate "clearly better alternative". In another post, I analyzed QB drafted since 2014 and showed this.

 

 

Regression in real Quantitative objective numbers, not in your personal subjective definition of regression.

 

TT Regression: despite playing in one less game in 2015 than 2016

 

Down in completion percentage

Down in total yards

Down in TD %

Down in # of TDs

Down in Yards per attempt

Down in Adjusted yards

Down in Yards per carry

Down in Yards per game

Down 10% in QB rating

Up in number of times sacked

 

As far as QBs and rookies. Rookies are always a crap shoot, but the great ones can be great because in part because they rose up immediately when given their first real chance. Brady, Manning, Luck, Ryan, Marino, Newton, Wilson, Big Ben all had great years the first year they were given a chance. Many other not so greats like Dalton, Winston & others had good first years with their teams. Even RGIII Pre-injury. Many teams had much better records with a first year rookie than they had the previous year with a poor to mediocre vet. The best pro scouts never know for sure before the QB actually plays, but it does happen that first year. All rookie are gambles, even the top rated ones in the draft. I don’t have the answer for the QB next year, but they are out there to take a gamble on. It is the management’s job to find the Qb, not me. There are always options besides TT.

 

And it is not about simply saving money by not overpaying for a mediocre TT. It is about using that extra cap space to build the rest of the team up. If a lesser player can get similar results and we use the money to build the rest of the team up and get us closer to the promised land of the playoffs, we are at least ahead for the future. I simply do not see TT as being the one who will get us to the playoffs. If like me, you don’t believe TT can get this team to the playoffs, and that TT is definitely not the long term solution; why would you not let him go and use the cap space to continue to build a better team for the future. Find a less costly mediocre QB that also can get you close, but not close enough, just like TT would. You end up with a better team built for the future when you finally do find the right QB. It is about finding the best options when faced with an unfavorable situation.

[K-9]

This is not advocating TT, but I will play devil's advocate and ask, "Did his regression occur in a vacuum?"

 

While I doubt having a completely healthy team around him would correct his faults as a QB, I do believe his statistical regression wouldn't have been nearly as dramatic if we weren't down to our 6th string wideouts, etc.

[dave mcbride]

Regression in real Quantitative objective numbers, not in your personal subjective definition of regression.

 

TT Regression: despite playing in one less game in 2015 than 2016

 

Down in completion percentage

Down in total yards

Down in TD %

Down in # of TDs

Down in Yards per attempt

Down in Adjusted yards

Down in Yards per carry

Down in Yards per game

Down 10% in QB rating

Up in number of times sacked

 

As far as QBs and rookies. Rookies are always a crap shoot, but the great ones can be great because in part because they rose up immediately when given their first real chance. Brady, Manning, Luck, Ryan, Marino, Newton, Wilson, Big Ben all had great years the first year they were given a chance. Many other not so greats like Dalton, Winston & others had good first years with their teams. Even RGIII Pre-injury. Many teams had much better records with a first year rookie than they had the previous year with a poor to mediocre vet. The best pro scouts never know for sure before the QB actually plays, but it does happen that first year. All rookie are gambles, even the top rated ones in the draft. I don’t have the answer for the QB next year, but they are out there to take a gamble on. It is the management’s job to find the Qb, not me. There are always options besides TT.

 

And it is not about simply saving money by not overpaying for a mediocre TT. It is about using that extra cap space to build the rest of the team up. If a lesser player can get similar results and we use the money to build the rest of the team up and get us closer to the promised land of the playoffs, we are at least ahead for the future. I simply do not see TT as being the one who will get us to the playoffs. If like me, you don’t believe TT can get this team to the playoffs, and that TT is definitely not the long term solution; why would you not let him go and use the cap space to continue to build a better team for the future. Find a less costly mediocre QB that also can get you close, but not close enough, just like TT would. You end up with a better team built for the future when you finally do find the right QB. It is about finding the best options when faced with an unfavorable situation.

Where is Sammy Watkins in this analysis?

[BuffaloHokie13]

Where is Sammy Watkins in this analysis?

 

On the trainer's table, as per usual