Interesting take from OverTheCap

[MAJBobby]

http://overthecap.com/looking-tyrod-taylor-rex-ryan-buffalo-bills/

 

Some highlights of the read

 

 

It was another busy day in the NFL with the Buffalo Bills firing head coach Rex Ryan and subsequently benching quarterback Tyrod Taylor in large part because of his contract. Taylor, a favorite of Ryans, had been rumored for some time to have fallen out of favor with the organization, who would have preferred to evaluate other players. Taylor had been on my list of likely quarterback cuts and may have been the most controversial selection on there since many in Buffalo believe he is the teams best player.

 

Realistically these are the kind of players that the franchise tag is made for in the event that all the leverage that the team has still does not force the player to take a team friendly contract. Look at the situation with Kirk Cousins in Washington and compare it to this one. The Bills assumed a majority of the risk because Taylor expressed that he was unhappy with his contract.

 

By benching Taylor the Bills have now shifted some leverage back to them. Obviously his injury guarantee will not kick in at this point unless he is injured in practice. Benching him also sends the signal that if he wants to remain in Buffalo he will need to renegotiate his contract to reflect a more realistic valuation.

 

While Taylor has shown that he has more potential than people thought the fact is he is still a pretty raw talent. I look at what the Browns did with Griffin, what Denver wanted to pay Kaepernick, and what the Jets wanted to pay Fitzpatrick and think that the majority of interested teams would peg him between $7 and $9 million per year with the ability to double or earn 2.5X that based on incentives being reached across a two year contract. But if a team has fallen in love with him I could see close to $15 million a year but with a structure that looks more Dalton than Newton. Either way the Bills should be able to get him on a better structured contract if they want to retain him and he wants to return.

 

 

Overall good read

[BringBackFergy]

http://overthecap.com/looking-tyrod-taylor-rex-ryan-buffalo-bills/

 

Some highlights of the read

 

 

It was another busy day in the NFL with the Buffalo Bills firing head coach Rex Ryan and subsequently benching quarterback Tyrod Taylor in large part because of his contract. Taylor, a favorite of Ryans, had been rumored for some time to have fallen out of favor with the organization, who would have preferred to evaluate other players. Taylor had been on my list of likely quarterback cuts and may have been the most controversial selection on there since many in Buffalo believe he is the teams best player.

 

Realistically these are the kind of players that the franchise tag is made for in the event that all the leverage that the team has still does not force the player to take a team friendly contract. Look at the situation with Kirk Cousins in Washington and compare it to this one. The Bills assumed a majority of the risk because Taylor expressed that he was unhappy with his contract.

 

By benching Taylor the Bills have now shifted some leverage back to them. Obviously his injury guarantee will not kick in at this point unless he is injured in practice. Benching him also sends the signal that if he wants to remain in Buffalo he will need to renegotiate his contract to reflect a more realistic valuation.

 

While Taylor has shown that he has more potential than people thought the fact is he is still a pretty raw talent. I look at what the Browns did with Griffin, what Denver wanted to pay Kaepernick, and what the Jets wanted to pay Fitzpatrick and think that the majority of interested teams would peg him between $7 and $9 million per year with the ability to double or earn 2.5X that based on incentives being reached across a two year contract. But if a team has fallen in love with him I could see close to $15 million a year but with a structure that looks more Dalton than Newton. Either way the Bills should be able to get him on a better structured contract if they want to retain him and he wants to return.

 

 

Overall good read

Sounds good to me...easier said than done.

[MAJBobby]

Sounds good to me...easier said than done.

The part about how they feel about the Bills HC position is a bit of a kick in the junk but cant argue it

[Dragonborn10]

So basically they agree with most of us that like TT. He is a servicable QB that doesn't have a great deal of leverage. I would completely agree with trying to get him to renegotiate.

But the Bills are up against the wall too, as no one including yourself has come up with an alternative QB.

[MAJBobby]

So basically they agree with most of us that like TT. He is a servicable QB that doesn't have a great deal of leverage. I would completely agree with trying to get him to renegotiate.

But the Bills are up against the wall too, as no one including yourself has come up with an alternative QB.

So did you read it they gave some names and why they would be good options.

 

Even gave Tyrods Max evaluation of what other QB needy Teams would likely pay.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

http://overthecap.com/looking-tyrod-taylor-rex-ryan-buffalo-bills/

 

(...)

 

Overall good read

 

Interesting to me was commentary on Rex:

"Not surprisingly many of the same mistakes Rex had with the Jets were still there with the Bills. Whether it was too many men on the field, too few men on the field, too many bad penalties, wasting time outs, or a lack of offensive focus the story of Rex in Buffalo was no different than with the Jets except he never had the talent in Buffalo that he had in New York in 2009 and 2010, which were the two seasons in which he made his name as a coach."

 

I'd like to hear others takes on whether it's true Rex never had the talent in B'lo that he had in NY in 2009/2010. I would say it is not true. Rex had a D that had been #4 overall in 2014; Rex 2009 D was #1, his 2010 D #6 on points/3 on yds.

Comparable performance argues comparable talent to me. On offense, I would say about the same - a bit better on QB and RB, worse on WR.

[Mr. WEO]

So did you read it they gave some names and why they would be good options.

 

Even gave Tyrods Max evaluation of what other QB needy Teams would likely pay.

 

 

"Foles, Kaepernick, etc"?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

So did you read it they gave some names and why they would be good options.

 

Even gave Tyrods Max evaluation of what other QB needy Teams would likely pay.

 

The only thing I read about QB was the single statement "It’s possible they will be looking for a plug in starter ala Foles, Kaepernick, etc… if Taylor is not retained." That's not much of an explanation of "why they would be good options" If anyone thinks Foles or Kaep would be a clear upgrade to Taylor I would kinda like some of what they're smokin' and I disagree on the "plug in starter" notion.

 

Kaep suffers many of the same limitations as Taylor as a passer, and for some reason fell off dramatically and has never recovered. People who hate on Taylor for his ~210 passing ypg and 37 TD in 29 games will be enchanted with Kaep's ~180 ypg and 21 TD per 18 games last 2 years.

 

Foles likewise had one fantastic year and has not been the same guy since, but given his contract, he's gonna be cut if he doesn't reno; KC owes him the big bucks next year, $10.75M with nothing guaranteed.

So he'll likely be on the market. He's more intriguing - StL may have been an anomaly, not a well coached team with a good line. His one game for KC this year was very very good. But his last 2 seasons as a starter were not.

Edited December 28, 2016 by Hapless Bills Fan

[reddogblitz]

Do we really want a QB/leader that we promised 27 mil but then said icks nay, you still 15 or whatever? I'm thinking that would leave some bad feelings. If we don't exercise the option, he probably signs elsewhere. Pulls a Fitz. I can't blame them, a deal's a deal.

[MAJBobby]

 

The only thing I read about QB was the single statement "Its possible they will be looking for a plug in starter ala Foles, Kaepernick, etc if Taylor is not retained." That's not much of an explanation of "why they would be good options" If anyone thinks Foles or Kaep would be a clear upgrade to Taylor I would kinda like some of what they're smokin' and I disagree on the "plug in starter" notion.

 

Kaep suffers many of the same limitations as Taylor as a passer, and for some reason fell off dramatically and has never recovered. People who hate on Taylor for his ~210 passing ypg and 37 TD in 29 games will be enchanted with Kaep's ~180 ypg and 21 TD per 18 games last 2 years.

 

Foles likewise had one fantastic year and has not been the same guy since, but given his contract, he's gonna be cut if he doesn't reno; KC owes him the big bucks next year, $10.75M with nothing guaranteed.

So he'll likely be on the market. He's more intriguing - StL may have been an anomaly, not a well coached team with a good line. His one game for KC this year was very very good. But his last 2 seasons as a starter were not.

And know who Foles RB was that great year he did have? Edited December 28, 2016 by MAJBobby

[djp14150]

Do we really want a QB/leader that we promised 27 mil but then said icks nay, you still 15 or whatever? I'm thinking that would leave some bad feelings. If we don't exercise the option, he probably signs elsewhere. Pulls a Fitz. I can't blame them, a deal's a deal.

It's how football works. They restructure it at something like $6M or so with incentives.

 

We're he a free agent he would not get anything north of $10N from another team. More likely a lower bade with bonus clauses if he becomes the starter.

[MAJBobby]

Another way to restructure is guarantee 2016 base as is.

 

Tie all future guarantees to measuable individual performance

[Hapless Bills Fan]

And know who Foles RB was that great year he did have?

 

Same RB he had during the following, up and down, decidedly less great season that followed. If you want to call it "causation", I think the next year disproves.

[MAJBobby]

 

Same RB he had during the following, up and down, decidedly less great season that followed. If you want to call it "causation", I think the next year disproves.

You mean the year Foles played 8 games cause of injury?

 

And the year after DeSean Jackson was traded because you know he was in a gang according to Chip

 

That year?

Edited December 28, 2016 by MAJBobby

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Do we really want a QB/leader that we promised 27 mil but then said icks nay, you still 15 or whatever? I'm thinking that would leave some bad feelings. If we don't exercise the option, he probably signs elsewhere. Pulls a Fitz. I can't blame them, a deal's a deal.

 

If you look under the hood at the details, he wasn't promised $27 mil per year; he gets $15.5 in 2017 and the $27M is fully guaranteed. I think. It's kind of hard to understand.

 

The point is, it was a "prove it year" contract for Taylor, to show that he's taken that step and can lead 4th Q comebacks, step up into his throwing lanes, etc. It said we'll pay you more this year, in order to gain right of first refusal if you take that step. He didn't play badly at all, but he didn't take that step, either. The market for a starting QB running a bottom-of-the-pack passing game will surely be more limited. So it comes down to, if the Bills want him, does he want to stay or does he want to test the market?

You mean the year Foles played 8 games cause of injury?

 

I mean the year in which his level of play fell off markedly and became inconsistant in those 8 games such that the Eagles considered him dispensable and traded him, yes.

[MAJBobby]

 

If you look under the hood at the details, he wasn't promised $27 mil per year; he gets $15.5 in 2017 and the $27M is fully guaranteed. I think. It's kind of hard to understand.

 

The point is, it was a "prove it year" contract for Taylor, to show that he's taken that step and can lead 4th Q comebacks, step up into his throwing lanes, etc. It said we'll pay you more this year, in order to gain right of first refusal if you take that step. He didn't play badly at all, but he didn't take that step, either. The market for a starting QB running a bottom-of-the-pack passing game will surely be more limited. So it comes down to, if the Bills want him, does he want to stay or does he want to test the market?

 

 

I mean the year in which his level of play fell off markedly and became inconsistant in those 8 games such that the Eagles considered him dispensable and traded him, yes.

Yeah the year after his No 1 WR was traded becAuse Chip said he had gang ties.

 

Oooo and Cooper going full N word dropping

 

Yeah not other influences there

[BADOLBILZ]

 

Interesting to me was commentary on Rex:

"Not surprisingly many of the same mistakes Rex had with the Jets were still there with the Bills. Whether it was too many men on the field, too few men on the field, too many bad penalties, wasting time outs, or a lack of offensive focus the story of Rex in Buffalo was no different than with the Jets except he never had the talent in Buffalo that he had in New York in 2009 and 2010, which were the two seasons in which he made his name as a coach."

 

I'd like to hear others takes on whether it's true Rex never had the talent in B'lo that he had in NY in 2009/2010. I would say it is not true. Rex had a D that had been #4 overall in 2014; Rex 2009 D was #1, his 2010 D #6 on points/3 on yds.

Comparable performance argues comparable talent to me. On offense, I would say about the same - a bit better on QB and RB, worse on WR.

 

Those 2009/2010 Jets teams weren't very talented.

 

Coming into that year they looked like the CLEAR worst team in the division......old, unexpressive talent, questionably talented rookie QB(Pete Carroll didn't think that much of him at USC)........ but Rex was at his best with utilizing castoff type try-hard vets in his front 7..........and we saw that here with guys like Manny Lawson, Lorax and more recently Leger Douzable.

 

The more talented his defense got the more the returns diminished.

 

The Bills actually have more valuable players, particularly in the front 7 and on offense, than those Jets teams.

[End The Drought]

I personally would struggle letting Tyrod go because I believe he is the best quarterback we have had in quite some time. It would absolutely kill me if we were to let him go and he goes and signs with Cleveland or someone like that and brings them to the playoffs. That being said, I look at organizations such as the Colts, who paid Andrew Luck so much and are now cap-strapped and struggling to fill the rest of their roster with talent. Obviously renegotiating the contract would be the best case scenario but I think Tyrod believes he is worth every penny of the current contract and would walk away from the Bills. Will be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of months..

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

Those 2009/2010 Jets teams weren't very talented.

 

Coming into that year they looked like the CLEAR worst team in the division......old, unexpressive talent, questionably talented rookie QB(Pete Carroll didn't think that much of him at USC)........ but Rex was at his best with utilizing castoff type try-hard vets in his front 7..........and we saw that here with guys like Manny Lawson, Lorax and more recently Leger Douzable.

 

The more talented his defense got the more the returns diminished.

 

The Bills actually have more valuable players, particularly in the front 7 and on offense, than those Jets teams.

 

Thanks, Badol. It's very interesting, I had the same thought - that Rex seems to be at his best bringing the utmost out of 2nd tier players, extracting the most from the "loveable underdog" theme, but somehow unable to motivate or inspire the best play out of elite players.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I personally would struggle letting Tyrod go because I believe he is the best quarterback we have had in quite some time. It would absolutely kill me if we were to let him go and he goes and signs with Cleveland or someone like that and brings them to the playoffs. That being said, I look at organizations such as the Colts, who paid Andrew Luck so much and are now cap-strapped and struggling to fill the rest of their roster with talent. Obviously renegotiating the contract would be the best case scenario but I think Tyrod believes he is worth every penny of the current contract and would walk away from the Bills. Will be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of months..

 

Well. The Bills don't always do what makes sense - the whole thing with Fitz during 2013 for example. That said:

 

If you want a QB, IMHO you need to do what the Eagles did - try every avenue. If you have an OK QB, trade for one with potential for greatness. If you aren't absolutely sold on that, trade for the best draft pick you can get. Sign the best 2nd tier FA you can find.

 

Nothing about Tyrod's contract would preclude the Bills from trying to draft a QB or sign a 2nd tier FA. If I read it correctly, he would be ~$16M cap hit next year, which would put him at about the 16-20th spot for QB (I may be off 2-4 spots); the point is he'd be being paid commensurate with what he is. But, his salary would be fully guaranteed for 2 years. It WOULD keep the Bills from trading for a QB or signing a 1st tier FA QB during that time.

 

I think the Bills could keep Tyrod, draft a rookie to develop along with Cardale Jones, and see how things progress. But a lot depends upon their coaching search. If they go with a HC like Shanahan, better turn over every rock to get him a guy who can throw.

 

And a lot depends upon who is likely to be available, as a FA.