DC Tom Posted April 11, 2018 Posted April 11, 2018 Trump aside...does anyone really think that Putin is willing to start WWIII over Assad, of all people? Particularly when Assad is dipshittish enough to continue using chemical weapons after Putin put Russia's credibility on the line for him after Obama's "red line" waffling? More likely than not, Putin will just cut him loose, and he ends up fleeing Syria. 1
snafu Posted April 12, 2018 Posted April 12, 2018 2 hours ago, DC Tom said: Trump aside...does anyone really think that Putin is willing to start WWIII over Assad, of all people? Particularly when Assad is dipshittish enough to continue using chemical weapons after Putin put Russia's credibility on the line for him after Obama's "red line" waffling? More likely than not, Putin will just cut him loose, and he ends up fleeing Syria. Maybe not WWIII, but Putin has gained a lot of influence with Iran, Syria, and Turkey. He's filled in the power vacuum nicely for himself. He's not going out of the region by way of an invitation.
Deranged Rhino Posted April 12, 2018 Posted April 12, 2018 1 minute ago, snafu said: Maybe not WWIII, but Putin has gained a lot of influence with Iran, Syria, and Turkey. He's filled in the power vacuum nicely for himself. He's not going out of the region by way of an invitation. Which is why the path to peace - and stability - will include keeping Tartus in Russian hands. That's what they care about most in country. That's an easy pill to swallow - or would be if the nation hasn't been fed HGH pills re Russia being a hostile enemy for the past 12+ months...
snafu Posted April 12, 2018 Posted April 12, 2018 21 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said: Which is why the path to peace - and stability - will include keeping Tartus in Russian hands. That's what they care about most in country. That's an easy pill to swallow - or would be if the nation hasn't been fed HGH pills re Russia being a hostile enemy for the past 12+ months... Yeah, I think Putin considers himself lucky that he almost lost his warm water, and miraculously got it back. Things weren't looking good for awhile. Maybe someone could save face by brokering a trade:. Tartus for Assad stepping down and retiring to Marseilles or somewhere. Either that, or bomb the hell out of the shipyard.
Deranged Rhino Posted April 12, 2018 Posted April 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, snafu said: Yeah, I think Putin considers himself lucky that he almost lost his warm water, and miraculously got it back. Things weren't looking good for awhile. Maybe someone could save face by brokering a trade:. Tartus for Assad stepping down and retiring to Marseilles or somewhere. Either that, or bomb the hell out of the shipyard. Agreed. I don't know which way it's going to break, but if Russia is forced to decide between Assad or Tartus - with the consequence being an actual shooting war with the west directly - my money is on Assad going bye-bye. He'll try to go to Iran, who will take him in (if he makes it out of the country)... And in turn that will only make the target on the Mullahs bigger.
Azalin Posted April 12, 2018 Posted April 12, 2018 7 hours ago, TakeYouToTasker said: English, mother!@#$er... Do you speak it?!? Apparently not. 1
ALF Posted April 12, 2018 Posted April 12, 2018 Photos show Russian navy has left Syria port ahead of possible US strike Satellite images reveal almost all of Moscow's vessels are gone from Tartus port, in likely preparation for potential military confrontation https://www.timesofisrael.com/photos-show-russian-navy-has-left-syria-port-ahead-of-possible-us-strike/
4merper4mer Posted April 12, 2018 Posted April 12, 2018 8 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said: Agreed. I don't know which way it's going to break, but if Russia is forced to decide between Assad or Tartus - with the consequence being an actual shooting war with the west directly - my money is on Assad going bye-bye. He'll try to go to Iran, who will take him in (if he makes it out of the country)... And in turn that will only make the target on the Mullahs bigger. Controlling tartus can't be that lucrative and I don't think Putin would look good in a kilt or any sort of plaid really. And haven't we learned from Mel Gibson not to piss off Scottish people? 1
GG Posted April 12, 2018 Posted April 12, 2018 23 hours ago, garybusey said: No. He's a damn idiot. The problem is you have no idea of what the true intent is. On the surface it's insane for Trump to tweet out military actions ahead of time. If that's in fact what he's doing. But you also shouldn't discount that the tweet had an alterior motive to publicly expose Russian, Iranian & Syrian mobilization strategies. If that was the plan, it worked like a charm. Of course with Trump you never know if it's intentional or accidental. But the bottom line remains, he got the other side to blink just through a tweet. 1
TakeYouToTasker Posted April 12, 2018 Posted April 12, 2018 31 minutes ago, GG said: The problem is you have no idea of what the true intent is. On the surface it's insane for Trump to tweet out military actions ahead of time. If that's in fact what he's doing. But you also shouldn't discount that the tweet had an alterior motive to publicly expose Russian, Iranian & Syrian mobilization strategies. If that was the plan, it worked like a charm. Of course with Trump you never know if it's intentional or accidental. But the bottom line remains, he got the other side to blink just through a tweet. That's what happens when you very visibly change the RoE in the arena, and don't make ridiculous statements about "red lines they cannot cross" without backing up those statements with real consequences.
DC Tom Posted April 12, 2018 Posted April 12, 2018 35 minutes ago, GG said: The problem is you have no idea of what the true intent is. On the surface it's insane for Trump to tweet out military actions ahead of time. If that's in fact what he's doing. But you also shouldn't discount that the tweet had an alterior motive to publicly expose Russian, Iranian & Syrian mobilization strategies. If that was the plan, it worked like a charm. Of course with Trump you never know if it's intentional or accidental. But the bottom line remains, he got the other side to blink just through a tweet. There's also the point that, since he's already taken military action once before, his twitterrhea isn't just rhetoric but carries real weight. 2
snafu Posted April 12, 2018 Posted April 12, 2018 4 hours ago, GG said: The problem is you have no idea of what the true intent is. On the surface it's insane for Trump to tweet out military actions ahead of time. If that's in fact what he's doing. But you also shouldn't discount that the tweet had an alterior motive to publicly expose Russian, Iranian & Syrian mobilization strategies. If that was the plan, it worked like a charm. Of course with Trump you never know if it's intentional or accidental. But the bottom line remains, he got the other side to blink just through a tweet. By giving the Syrians and Russians time to move out of the way, whatever strike is coming will damage more things and fewer people -- as long as the US repeats an attack on military infrastructure. That is...if any attack is coming at all.
Deranged Rhino Posted April 12, 2018 Posted April 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, snafu said: By giving the Syrians and Russians time to move out of the way, whatever strike is coming will damage more things and fewer people -- as long as the US repeats an attack on military infrastructure. That is...if any attack is coming at all. Adding to what you and GG are laying out, there's another angle here too, namely that Russia isn't the target. Iran is. I've been laying out how the GCC is kicking tail on the ground without much coverage, and how the US role in the region is logistical support and to keep Russia and China out of the GCC/Iran fight as much as we can. Part of that would entail making sure actions taken against Iranian proxies don't ensare Russian forces from being compelled to respond with force themselves.
Deranged Rhino Posted April 12, 2018 Posted April 12, 2018 16 hours ago, Deranged Rhino said: Agreed. I don't know which way it's going to break, but if Russia is forced to decide between Assad or Tartus - with the consequence being an actual shooting war with the west directly - my money is on Assad going bye-bye. He'll try to go to Iran, who will take him in (if he makes it out of the country)... And in turn that will only make the target on the Mullahs bigger. Take it with a grain of salt for now, but this is the third report I've seen saying Assad bugged out. 1
Taro T Posted April 12, 2018 Posted April 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Deranged Rhino said: Take it with a grain of salt for now, but this is the third report I've seen saying Assad bugged out. Let's hope. Amazing how much the landscape appears to be changing. 1
snafu Posted April 12, 2018 Posted April 12, 2018 If Assad is actually going/gone then that was the longest, ugliest Arab Spring of all time. 1
row_33 Posted April 12, 2018 Posted April 12, 2018 (edited) 10 minutes ago, snafu said: If Assad is actually going/gone then that was the longest, ugliest Arab Spring of all time. 45 years? edit: Papa took over in 1971, so a few more years... Edited April 12, 2018 by row_33
DC Tom Posted April 12, 2018 Posted April 12, 2018 31 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said: Take it with a grain of salt for now, but this is the third report I've seen saying Assad bugged out. 20 hours ago, DC Tom said: Trump aside...does anyone really think that Putin is willing to start WWIII over Assad, of all people? Particularly when Assad is dipshittish enough to continue using chemical weapons after Putin put Russia's credibility on the line for him after Obama's "red line" waffling? More likely than not, Putin will just cut him loose, and he ends up fleeing Syria. Who has two thumbs and called it? This guy... 1
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