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54 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Two Saudi Oil tankers attacked in the Gulf! 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/two-saudi-oil-tankers-attacked-in-the-persian-gulf-amid-rising-iran-tensions/2019/05/13/c8907108-755e-11e9-bd25-c989555e7766_story.html?utm_term=.580cd853ba6d

 

Higher gas prices anyone? 

Oil prices spike by 2% following attack Any further disruptions will stoke fears of supply crunch, analysts saygulfnews.com/business/e…gulfnews.com/business/e…

  Yugo's are supposed to have pretty good gas mileage so you should be good to go.

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3 hours ago, Tiberius said:

Two Saudi Oil tankers attacked in the Gulf! 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/two-saudi-oil-tankers-attacked-in-the-persian-gulf-amid-rising-iran-tensions/2019/05/13/c8907108-755e-11e9-bd25-c989555e7766_story.html?utm_term=.580cd853ba6d

 

Higher gas prices anyone? 

Oil prices spike by 2% following attack Any further disruptions will stoke fears of supply crunch, analysts saygulfnews.com/business/e…gulfnews.com/business/e…

 

Bring it on.  I'm long oil, natural gas, and gold. 

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1 hour ago, DC Tom said:

 

Bring it on.  I'm long oil, natural gas, and gold. 

Really? short term play?

 

I am convinced oil will be trading at less than $15/barrel in 5 years, just have no clue how to make that long range bet

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So if I understand it correctly, Iran is saying that if the West doesn't want to abide by the deal everyone signed in 2015 with ostensibly good intentions, then the ONLY alternative is for it to start a war with Saudi Arabia?

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2 minutes ago, GG said:

So if I understand it correctly, Iran is saying that if the West doesn't want to abide by the deal everyone signed in 2015 with ostensibly good intentions, then the ONLY alternative is for it to start a war with Saudi Arabia?

 

Pretty much. 

 

They're desperate. The IRGC has been defecting in droves. Hamas/Hezbollah financing has been strangled making it difficult to replace the losses they've suffered in the field over the past three years of sustained action against the GCC and western allies. 

 

The Mullah's aren't long for this world. 

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1 minute ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

Pretty much. 

 

They're desperate. The IRGC has been defecting in droves. Hamas/Hezbollah financing has been strangled making it difficult to replace the losses they've suffered in the field over the past three years of sustained action against the GCC and western allies. 

 

The Mullah's aren't long for this world. 

Not without a war, invasion and occupation. Maduro is still in power as is Assad. Both with the backing of Putin. 

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Just now, Tiberius said:

Not without a war, invasion and occupation. Maduro is still in power as is Assad. Both with the backing of Putin. 

 

No invasion. No war. 

 

They will fall from within. They've been prepping the region for this for two straight years. 

 

(There will be Israeli/GCC/Special forces operations to protect civilians from the Mullah's wrath -- but not invasion or "war")

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2 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

No invasion. No war. 

 

They will fall from within. They've been prepping the region for this for two straight years. 

 

(There will be Israeli/GCC/Special forces operations to protect civilians from the Mullah's wrath -- but not invasion or "war")

Who will take over? Is there a provisional government ready? 

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1 minute ago, Tiberius said:

Who will take over? Is there a provisional government ready? 

 

The Iranian people will take over and get their country back. 

 

The Iranian people have a much more western leaning government structure than anyone else in the region bar Israel. The Mullahs could leave today and the government would carry on unimpeded. 

 

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Just now, Hedge said:

 

I wouldn't put it past the Mullahs to stage their own Gulf of Tonkin type incident once they realize these tricks/attacks aren't going to provoke the response they wish.

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1 minute ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

The Iranian people will take over and get their country back. 

 

The Iranian people have a much more western leaning government structure than anyone else in the region bar Israel. The Mullahs could leave today and the government would carry on unimpeded. 

 

Ahhh! Like they took over in Iraq! Like Al-Sadr! 

 

Image result for al sadr

1 minute ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

I wouldn't put it past the Mullahs to stage their own Gulf of Tonkin type incident once they realize these tricks/attacks aren't going to provoke the response they wish.

? Huh? 

 

You mean they will start a wider war? 

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2 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Ahhh! Like they took over in Iraq! Like Al-Sadr! 

 

In an attempt to have a serious conversation -- Iraq 2003 was in no way, shape, or form like Iran in 2019. 

 

What was the primary reason Iraq remained so unstable for so long post invasion? Iranian interference. 

Who killed more US personnel in Iraq than AQ or the Revolutionary Guard? Iranian forces and their proxies. 

Who funds more terror than any other nation state? Iran. 

 

If the Mullahs fall, there won't be the fallout there was in Iraq because Iran was, and always has been, the dirtiest actor in the region. 

4 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

? Huh? 

 

You mean they will start a wider war? 

 

Yes. A US attack on Iran (even a false flag) would allow the Mullahs to play the victim on the international stage and within their own population. It will allow them to dig in. 

 

War is a distraction they desperately want -- that's how bad things are for the Mullahs in Iran today.

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15 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Who will take over? Is there a provisional government ready? 

 

If it doesn’t get reduced to rubble, Iran has decent infrastructure. There would be a power vacuum but there’s a structure to support the power. Contrary to the Boom Week Theory (TM), this won’t happen overnight. Right now it’s some well-timed saber-rattling. 

Edited by BeginnersMind
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14 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

In an attempt to have a serious conversation -- Iraq 2003 was in no way, shape, or form like Iran in 2019. 

 

What was the primary reason Iraq remained so unstable for so long post invasion? Iranian interference. 

Who killed more US personnel in Iraq than AQ or the Revolutionary Guard? Iranian forces and their proxies. 

Who funds more terror than any other nation state? Iran. 

 

If the Mullahs fall, there won't be the fallout there was in Iraq because Iran was, and always has been, the dirtiest actor in the region. 

 

Yes. A US attack on Iran (even a false flag) would allow the Mullahs to play the victim on the international stage and within their own population. It will allow them to dig in. 

 

War is a distraction they desperately want -- that's how bad things are for the Mullahs in Iran today.

Yes, Iran is much bigger and ethnically diverse and militarily superior to anything Iraq was in 2003. Iran would be an even bigger disaster if it fell apart or whatever. 

9 minutes ago, BeginnersMind said:

 

If it doesn’t get reduced to rubble, Iran has decent infrastructure. There would be a power vacuum but there’s a structure to support the power. Contrary to the Boom Week Theory (TM), this won’t happen overnight. Right now it’s some well-timed saber-rattling. 

It's got an air of 'tail wagging the dog' about it 

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4 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Yes, Iran is much bigger and ethnically diverse and militarily superior to anything Iraq was in 2003. Iran would be an even bigger disaster if it fell apart or whatever. 

 

The point is that it won't fall apart. 

 

The people don't support the Mullahs, the Mullahs hold power, they're not chosen to be in power. 

 

The people have a government that would function with or without the Mullahs. 

 

And with the Mullahs/IRGC/Hezbollah/Hamas removed, there would be far fewer external bad actors trying to cause chaos. 

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