Taylor 12th in Total QBR through week 14...

[John from Riverside]

There will be a lot of attempts to defend Taylor and make it all feel like he was an average QB this offseason.

 

I simply cannot accept his 4th quarter play game after game when the team needs him to step up the most. All winnable situations against good teams have been failures.

 

Yes, he can light up the 49ers for 45 points, crush the Browns for 30+, and beat the Cardinals big at home. I'm sure his stats look great as he's doing too little too late (failed Jets, Steelers "comebacks" this year) and crushing bad teams.

 

Please convince yourselves that he is worthy of this contract. I'm sure it will help you get through the 18th and 19th year of no playoffs.

Is there a reason why you are leaving out the Seahawks game? Just curious.

[CSBill]

Do you know how high Greg Roman's offenses have ranked for passing attacks?

 

2011 - ranked 29

2012 - ranked 23

2013 - ranked 30

2014 - ranked 30

2015 - ranked 28

2016 - ranked 31 so far

 

Yep. That is clearly 100% Tyrod's fault.

 

Stop pretending this is an awesome passing offense that Tyrod simply can't execute. No quarterback has ever executed a Greg Roman passing attack to any meaningful success. No quarterback ever. In 6 years. Not one.

 

In fact the words Greg Roman and Passing Attack are Oxymorons.

 

But yeah. Tyrod sucks. Cut him. Let's replace him with some random schlep off the street. They will be better for sure. Any rookie will do. Doh!

Don't confuse our unchallenged assumptions with facts. That just kills our emotional rants and unsupported claims.

Is it a coincidence that Tyrod Taylor and Tim Tebow's initials are TT?

 

Hmmm.

 

Both very likeable guys. Both have their limitations when it comes to throwing the ball.

Now we're on to something

[fridge]

Is there a reason why you are leaving out the Seahawks game? Just curious.

As a failed comeback?

[Wing Man]

...and Trent Edwards was 3rd his last season with the Bills. Wall of Fame, anyone?

[MarlinTheMagician]

 

 

Tyrod was very productive but clearly flawed last year and instead of making adding weapons to his arsenal the top priority they subtracted and expected him to do more with less.

 

The additions were focused......naturally.......on Rex's pride and joy defense.

 

The right thing to do was find a way to get a big 1A quality WR across from Watkins and let Tyrod develop within the system doing the two things he does very well.......throw deep and orchestrate a running game.

 

It's plausible at least that after a 2-3 full seasons in the same offense he could improve wrt to knowing where and when to go with the football on intermediate throws.

 

I think this is exactly right. Pick a wideout. Let Sammy earn a contract or walk. if he can't stay on the field we can't pay him what he will want.

[San-O]

 

I thought QBR had been discredited as a meaningful stat?

 

It had its critics from the start:

"Further controversy erupted when the Total QBR system gave the Denver Broncos' Tim Tebow a higher rating than the Green Bay Packers' Aaron Rodgers in their respective Week 5 contests in 2011. Noting that Rodgers completed 26 of 39 passes for 396 yards and two touchdowns in a win over the Atlanta Falcons, while Tebow completed four of 10 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown, and six rushes for 38 yards and a touchdown, in a loss to the San Diego Chargers, Mike Florio of Profootballtalk.com wrote that he'll "continue to ignore ESPN’s Total QBR stat."^[12] Rodgers himself was surprised: "I saw the [QBR stats] and chuckled to myself. I played a full game, [Tebow] played the half. He completed four passes, I completed 26. I think it incorporates QB runs as well ... The weighting of it doesn't make a whole lot of sense."^[13]"

 

 

Wow. I had no idea it was that messed up...

[hondo in seattle]

Do you know how high Greg Roman's offenses have ranked for passing attacks?

2011 - ranked 29
2012 - ranked 23
2013 - ranked 30
2014 - ranked 30
2015 - ranked 28
2016 - ranked 31 so far

Yep. That is clearly 100% Tyrod's fault.

Stop pretending this is an awesome passing offense that Tyrod simply can't execute. No quarterback has ever executed a Greg Roman passing attack to any meaningful success. No quarterback ever. In 6 years. Not one.

In fact the words Greg Roman and Passing Attack are Oxymorons.

But yeah. Tyrod sucks. Cut him. Let's replace him with some random schlep off the street. They will be better for sure. Any rookie will do. Doh![/quote

 

................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Excellent point. The sarcasm is useless but the statistics are telling. Roman's scheme has no aerial firepower.

 

The Bills lead the league in rushing but are middle of the pack in total yards and yards per drive. Maybe we should bring in a passing game coordinator next year.

Edited December 22, 2016 by hondo in seattle

[Nitro]

The QBR is not a good measurement. NFL.com stats has Taylor rated 30th. While many want Taylor gone think ahead. You are looking at a schedule that is not going to be at all easy. With Taylor, the offense will be competitive. Since Roman left, the offense has done well. The passing game needs an up grade. Getting the Watkins and the others healthy is a step in the right direction. Add another WR in the draft will help. If you dump Taylor, you can bring in a veteran stop gap type QB. Draft a QB to groom and compete with Cardale Jones. Or start a rookie and take a beating in the standings thus enduring a high draft pick. The team might be in the playoffs in three years. No easy answer.

[GoBills808]

 

I am of the opinion that many QBs who have failed could THRIVE in another system/opportunity....and on the flip side, some good QB's who have had success would FAIL in another system/opportunity.

 

There are exceptions; some QBs would be amazing regardless of system/opp (Peyton Manning), and some QB's would still suck regardless of system/opp (Manziel).

 

I THINK Polish Dave's point is that that is a lot of QBs who have all been very terrible in Romans system (and in my opinion, maybe one or two could have success if they were in another system/opp) - so is it ALL Those QB's that are bad, or is Romans system really that bad?

I tend to doubt it. Teams are putting 8 in the box against us and we still struggle to throw the ball. There are single coverage looks on every play that we simply don't take advantage of.

 

I think without McCoy Taylor would be out of the league. Imagine him having an average run game against defenses that aren't selling out run every play.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

in MLB...hitters have OBP (hits & walks)....a better measure than just BA

 

in NFL ...QB's have total QBR (arm & legs ).....a better measure than just passer rating

 

total qbr is NOT a silly stat

 

QB's should get credit for extending plays with their legs and avoiding sacks.

 

it would be like saying you shouldn't count good hands and receiving yards for RB's.

 

Hokay then....explain QBR...what exactly goes into it? how are the things that go into it objectively determined? How are they weighted?

 

 

****crickets****

Hint: you can't, because ESPN doesn't fully release that information. It's known to require more than 6000 lines of code, as well as observers watching every play a QB makes and making some judgement calls.

 

Look, I get your point that "passer rating" does not fully capture all that goes into a QB's effectiveness, and it would be nice to have a QB metric that takes into account runs and other aspects of QB play. That's what metrics such as Cold Hard Football Facts "Real QB rating" attempt to do. But that's not what ESPN's "total QBR" does.

 

"total QBR" is not at all analogous to "OBP" in MLB: OBP is a straightforward statistic and everyone knows (or can learn) how it is calculated. The equivalent for MLB would be if you had an observer rate every move a pitcher made (pitches, balks, defense) and folded it into a matrix which attempts to calculate the maximum possible point shift on that move and its effect on the team's win probability - and then a few more permutations on top of that. Oh, here, I'll let Wiki tell you about what goes into QBR, figure out something equivalent for baseball:

"The (QBR) computation requires an examination of each play in which the quarterback was involved. For each play, the change in the expected value of the points scored by the two teams is determined along with the maximum possible change in points for each team. The net points gained by the offense on the play are divided between the players involved in the play based on how much each contributed to the points gained or lost. For example, on a play where the quarterback immediately hands the ball off to a running back after the snap, the quarterback's contribution is negligible. On passing plays the quarterback is likely to have a major contribution, along with the blockers and the receiver. The resulting value is compared to the maximum possible net point gain, and this comparison leads to a "net points percentage" value between 0 and 100 for the quarterback on each play which roughly represents the percentage of the possible point gain that the quarterback produced. This value is transformed so that a value of 50 represents the average net point gain of an NFL quarterback on the play.

The win probability function is then used to compute a "clutch index" for each play ranging from 0.3 to 3.0, with higher values corresponding to plays that have a greater influence on winning or losing the game. The QBR is obtained by taking the weighted average of the "points gained percentage" for each play, with each play having a weight equal to its clutch index. Thus the QBR has a range from 0 to 100 with 50 being considered average."

[papazoid]

How is Total QBR calculated?

 

We explain our quarterback rating

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/123701/how-is-total-qbr-calculated-we-explain-our-quarterback-rating

[Big Gun]

 

 

Wow. I had no idea it was that messed up...

Yeah, I had know idea either it was that screwed up.

 

Something that screwed up can't be taken seriously. Looses all credibility what so ever. Bad criteria to use for and argument.

How is Total QBR calculated?

 

We explain our quarterback rating

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/123701/how-is-total-qbr-calculated-we-explain-our-quarterback-rating

None of that matters when you see the Tebow/Rodgers comparison. It's a joke of a system.

Edited December 22, 2016 by old school

[Big Turk]

 

I think this is exactly right. Pick a wideout. Let Sammy earn a contract or walk. if he can't stay on the field we can't pay him what he will want.

Yup...let him walk so he can turn into Julio Jones somewhere else and we look like morons for giving up on him when we already saw the exact same thing happen with Julio who had eerily similar numbers through 3 years

[8-8 Forever?]

 

Do you know how high Greg Roman's offenses have ranked for passing attacks?

 

2011 - ranked 29

2012 - ranked 23

2013 - ranked 30

2014 - ranked 30

2015 - ranked 28

2016 - ranked 31 so far

 

Yep. That is clearly 100% Tyrod's fault.

 

Stop pretending this is an awesome passing offense that Tyrod simply can't execute. No quarterback has ever executed a Greg Roman passing attack to any meaningful success. No quarterback ever. In 6 years. Not one.

 

In fact the words Greg Roman and Passing Attack are Oxymorons.

 

But yeah. Tyrod sucks. Cut him. Let's replace him with some random schlep off the street. They will be better for sure. Any rookie will do. Doh!

wow. that is an interesting set of numbers. Roman loves to run it, but did not realize he was always last in passing offense. that explains more than a little.

[Big Turk]

wow. that is an interesting set of numbers. Roman loves to run it, but did not realize he was always last in passing offense. that explains more than a little.

Roman's passing game concepts have been called rudimentary and "highschoolish" by several football people behind the scenes...however they do also freely admit he is a running game genius...not only in the way it's schemed but also on his use of multiple plays and misdirections out of the same formations...

 

I suppose every coach has their strengths and weaknesses when it comes to play design...

Edited December 22, 2016 by matter2003

[PromoTheRobot]

Taylor had a chance to win a lot of games in the 4th quarter. He failed on every one of them. That is the only stat that matters.

 

Taylor had a chance to hit a lot of wide open and open receivers and a number where we could have won a jump ball or drawn a penalty. He was afraid to throw the ball far far too often.

This after the defense played like Swiss cheese and put us in a hole. If you are 9th in scoring and you are still losing games, maybe you should look at your defense?

[Big Turk]

This after the defense played like Swiss cheese and put us in a hole. If you are 9th in scoring and you are still losing games, maybe you should look at your defense?

Yeah I'd tend to agree...if the D performed similar to Schwartz d, hell even top 10, we would have had 10+ wins and playoffs both of the last 2 years...hard to bag on the offense when they are setting some of the highest point totals in franchise history for a season

Edited December 22, 2016 by matter2003

[Agent 91]

Huh?

 

What do you think Taylor has done?

 

Buffalo has scored 358 points this year.

 

Only Oakland has scored more of those 3 teams. They have 377, Pittsburgh has 341, and Seattle has 298...

 

Bills have scored 25+ points 9 times...

 

Again, only Oakland has scored 25+ more times at 10...Seattle is at 7 and Pittsburgh is at 6...

 

Bills D has given up more points than all those teams except Oakland, which is why this might be a flash in the pan type of year for them...they have won a lot of close, late games and typically you see certain teams do that in a season but don't follow it up the next year...Carolina last year did it, now they lose those games...Chicago did it under Kyle Orton one year going 13-3 but then fell back to average or bewlo average record the next year...same with Green Bay and Don Majkowski back in the day...the Cardiac Pack they were nicknamed...that model of winning isn't sustainable year to year, so unless their defense gets tightened up significantly they are looking at falling back to 8-8 or 9-7 next year...

Well taylors job is to get out of the way of McCoy and Gillislee and not mess up. These 25+ points were manufactured by the run game. Taylor averages a td a game. Hardly the QB who carried the team in his back

Tyrod Taylor sucks

 

The Bills broke a record for rushing TD's this year. So, I will give you one guess where most of those points came from.

Thank you

Tyrod Taylor had his hands on the most 14 passing an 6 rushing.

6 rushing. He BETTER have the most he is asked to throw too!!

[PromoTheRobot]

Yeah I'd tend to agree...if the D performed similar to Schwartz d, hell even top 10, we would have had 10+ wins and playoffs both of the last 2 years...hard to bag on the offense when they are setting some of the highest point totals in franchise history for a season

Which is not to say Taylor isn't flawed. But he's is not the train wreck most make him out to be.

[C.Biscuit97]

Which is not to say Taylor isn't flawed. But he's is not the train wreck most make him out to be.

Most rational people know he's not a train wreck. That's just stupid. I just don't think he is a difference maker. And imo, he's not worth being the highest paid player on the Bills.