o-line the real problem

[Nihilarian]

It's actually WR. I'm not including Sammy in any way shape or form due to the injury. But there have been long stretches this year where our WRS have been guys that wouldn't be on half the rosters in the league. We actually had Percy Harvin play....in an actual game. That happened. Who would you rather have? Shaq Lawson Reggie Ragland or Michael Thomas? That's on Whaley. Who knew full well at the draft that Sammy had the foot injury.

Most fans don't want to hear this and would rather just point at the QB not being good enough! No QB is ever going to be good enough with the one, lone star WR always hurt. The second best WR is a really good blocker and not as great in getting open or getting separation and the same thing goes with the starting TE. The rest are just scrubs and there has to be better talent in the draft out there. Yea sure receivers are running wide open all over the field every game and the QB never sees them ...or simply doesn't trust them to be in the right spot or catch the ball at all.

 

 

If the team keeps Whaley he had better find some top talent in the free agent WR market like Alshon Jeffery because he and his scouts don't do so well in grading offensive college talent. Martellus Bennett is a UFA. Plus the team needs to find a decent starting RT. This is why I keep hoping that the team hires a president of football operations to help identify top offensive talent through the draft and bring in better doctors and trainers.

Edited December 23, 2016 by Nihilarian

[nucci]

The defense is the real problem....27th against the run

[Blokestradamus]

I'm confused here, Bloke. NFL.com asserts Taylor's been sacked 40 times (!), 31st in the NFL (only Cleveland is worse).

So is PFF saying they disagree on 10 of those sacks? Or that they can't assign responsibility/blame for 10 of those sacks?

 

Anyway, a couple of additional publically available stats:

-Football outsiders lists Buffalo as having 41 sacks against them, and having an "adjusted sack rate" (sacks plus intentional grounding) of 9.7% (second worst in the league)

-Cold Hard Football Facts has a similar stat "negative pass plays" which for the Bills is 10.5% (2nd worst in the league, again)

 

BUT, if we take away the 13 sacks that are attributed (by your PFF stats) to Tyrod Taylor from the 40 sacks attributed to the Bills, that would give the Bills OL 28 sacks which would tie them for 11th (with the Baltimore Ravens) - above average.

 

So what I'm wanting to know is what PFF means when they assign blame to Taylor? Holding on to the ball too long? Trying to scramble and not clearing the LOS? Not throwing it away when he could? Do they explain?

 

PFF sack totals are a little bit strange at times. For instance, Kyle and Lorenzo split a sack on Sunday, PFF gives them both full credit for a sack. In a game a few weeks ago, both Mills and Glenn were beaten and their respective defenders met at the quarterback. PFF didn't credit either OT with a sack allowed.

 

From what I can gather, sacks on Tyrod tend to be those decisions where he could throw it away but either runs out of bounds short of the LOS or is tackled in bounds with the same scenario. They don't account for all the sacks against him but that's the majority of them. They're not the most transparent group, just noticing trends when I re-watch and how my takes match up to their data.

 

Through my work with Bills Wire, we get weekly previews on the week's opponent and post-game stats for both teams from the game. From this week as a comparison, PFF has Ryan Tannehill credited with 5 sacks, 2 hits, 2 hurries (although in one less game).

 

 

[thebandit27]

It would be interesting to see how the Bills stack up to the Cowboys offensive line stats. I'll say again that the right side of the Bills line is simply not good enough and perhaps a more dominant RT would help improve Miller.

 

Bills fans always seem to forget that this is a run-first team that basically lives or dies with the run game! So it really is imperative that it works all game long. Getting behind in points is not a valid excuse to stop using it either.

 

To the Bills fans that state that it's irrational to think about getting such good stats by playing bad teams because all teams play bad teams...these fans are missing the point on what it takes to get a team into the playoffs and beyond. What's important to me is how the team faired against the better defenses in the league because that is who they need to beat in order to get to the playoffs and ultimately the super bowl.

 

The Bills run game faltered badly against the Ravens, Jets, Miami, Pittsburgh. The Bills still lost to the Seahawks, Patriots, Raiders while having a punishing run game and it was the defense that let the team down in those games. But that is another story. The Bills defense also played a big part in the loss to the Jets and Miami. But again, that's another story and just says that the defense isn't good enough either.

 

Another stat that would be interesting to see is how Tyrod Taylor's time to throw matches up to last year when he had Watkins to throw to for 1047 yards and 9 TD's. He also had Hogan and other receivers that didn't end up on IR to throw to.

 

 

In my view, the Bills offensive line is not dominating when we see a great RB like LeSean McCoy held to a 2,6 yard per carry average all game long against the Steelers. Then we look at the other side and see Le'Veon Bell averaging 6.2 yards per carry to end up with 236 yards rushing on 38 carries. That is an embarrassment to me on both sides of the ball.

 

Against the hapless Browns McCoy had 19 rushes for 153 yards, 2 TD's with an 8.1 yard per carry average. Yea, dominant

The Bills lead the NFL in RB yards before contact per carry (chart posted in this very thread); there's no debating whether or not the OL can handle theIt business in the run game.

 

I'm glad you brought up the Pittsburgh game, as it's a perfect microcosm of the team's offensive limitations.

 

The reason that game unfolded as it did was that Pittsburgh opened the game by throwing for 150 passing yards in the first 18 minutes, forcing Buffalo to back off their front 7. They then gashed us repeatedly with the run.

 

In that same time period, Buffalo amasses a whopping -14 passing yards.

 

If you can't back 'em off, they'll stack the line.

 

Simple as that.

 

As to Taylor, his time to throw was 3.03 in 2015--last in the NFL.

 

It's about a tenth second slower this season--still last in the NFL.

Edited December 23, 2016 by thebandit27

[Kirby Jackson]

 

To the Bills fans that state that it's irrational to think about getting such good stats by playing bad teams because all teams play bad teams...these fans are missing the point on what it takes to get a team into the playoffs and beyond.

 

 

If you are correlating these two you are missing my point. The point had nothing to do with what it takes to get to the Super Bowl. I was addressing the fact that the running game has been dominant. They have the highest YPC in the last 10 NFL seasons. It's a fact that it has been dominant.

 

Someone responded by saying more or less "they do it against bad teams." Three of the 4 examples that they gave all happened to play against the Cowboys this year (as did the Pack and Bears). Everyone plays good teams and everyone plays bad teams. The point had nothing to do with a winning formula and everything to do with "you can't discredit the Bills because they play bad teams but credit Dallas for stats against the same teams." Hopefully that clears it up.

Edited December 23, 2016 by Kirby Jackson

[thebandit27]

If you are correlating these two you are missing my point. The point had nothing to do with what it takes to get to the Super Bowl. I was addressing the fact that the running game has been dominant. They have the highest YPC in the last 10 NFL seasons. It's a fact that it has been dominant.

 

Someone responded by saying more or less "they do it against bad teams." Three of the 4 examples that they gave all happened to play against the Cowboys this year (as did the Pack and Bears). Everyone plays good teams and everyone plays bad teams. The point had nothing to do with a winning formula and everything to do with "you can't discredit the Bills because they play bad teams but credit Dallas for stats against the same teams." Hopefully that clears it up.

I'll add that they've also gashed some VERY good run defenses this year.

 

Seattle, Arizona, Jax, and NE all rank in the top 9 in the NFL in YPC allowed.

 

If we're going to calibrate the performance of the run game for strength of opponent, let's be thorough about it.

[Kirby Jackson]

I'll add that they've also gashed some VERY good run defenses this year.

 

Seattle, Arizona, Jax, and NE all rank in the top 9 in the NFL in YPC allowed.

 

If we're going to calibrate the performance of the run game for strength of opponent, let's be thorough about it.

To take it a step further, I took it out another decimal and Atlanta in 2006 is at 5.47 YPC and the Bills at 5.51. I went as far back as 2002 (I couldn't find the prior years) and the Bills have the highest YPC of any team. So in AT LEAST the last 15 years (which I believe constitutes 480 NFL seasons) they rank 1 in YPC. I just took issue with "the run game isn't dominant."

[Nihilarian]

Some of you may have seen the analyses I've posted over the last few years looking at O Line Pass Protect / QB Unforced errors.. if you haven't here's an example.. http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/190712-week-15-all-22-review-o-line-qb-unforced-errors/

 

Here are my O Line Pass Protect Grades for 2016

 

CORDY GLENN - B (had a handful of games where he wasn 't his normal pro bowl self.. but was generally very solid)

CYRUS KOUANDJIO - B ( did a solid job filling in for Glenn when he was hurt in BAL and other games)

RICHIE INCOGNITO - B (had a stretch of games earlier in the year where he had trouble recognizing stunts and gave up some pressures.. but has been lights out the last 5 games)

ERIC WOOD - B+ ( Wood was very solid this year until he got hurt)

RYAN GROY - B+ ( he struggled in the few snaps he took in SEA game but has been outstanding filling in for Wood since)

JOHN MILLER - C ( Miller typically gives up 2 bad pressures a game.. he is an average pass protector)

JORDAN MILLS - D ( Mills is consistently the worst pass protector week after week. He has certainly been the weak link this year and his poor play has hampered the passing game)

 

 

• O LINE PASS PROTECT WAS ABOVE AVERAGE MORE OFTEN THAN NOT - In the 14 games I analyzed.. the O Line was average or above average in pass protect 57% of the time. In other words... the line has been solid in pass protect more often than not

•

• O LINE PLAY DOESN'T HAVE A DIRECT CORRELATION WITH WINS/LOSSES - Let's break down the 4 worst rated O Line games.

•

• 2016 DOLPHINS - LOSS - 30% line breakdown rate - Mills got toasted by Wake all game and TT was under fire nearly 1 out of every 3 pass plays. This was the worst rated performance I had for them over this period of analysis.TT actually played pretty well this game considering.. avoiding the pressure and helping the Bills stake an early lead. The defense blew this one by letting Jay Ajai run all over them in the 2nd half

•

• 2016 SEAHAWKS - LOSS - 29% breakdown rate - Mills got toasted by Cliff Avril all game... yet TT managed to escape pressure and arguably have his best game as a Bill. Hard to blame the offense in this one.

•

• 2016 JAGUARS - WIN - 27% breakdown rate. Much like the Texans game in 2015.. the O line played poorly and TT played poorly as well. It took a late 2nd half comeback to escape with a win here.

•

• RIGHT TACKLE IS WEAKEST LINK - Jordan Mills is awful.. The rest of the line is average or above average

Bottom line here is the Bills offensive line is not "the" problem! Although, in my view, it is part of the problem as RG Miller and RT Mills are simply not good enough. Should the Bills somehow make the playoffs this year and need to play a team in the playoffs these deficiencies in line talent will become more obvious.

 

Want to talk dominant? I look at Buffalo and would say if there is anything dominant about the offense it's LeSean McCoy and his ability to just make some ridiculous moves at times and make defenders look ridiculous attempting to tackle him. Shades of Barry Sanders and Buffalo is so lucky to have a player like him and yet his talent is being wasted just like Barry Sanders was in Detroit. Shady should make the HoF.

 

If that Pittsburgh game showed me anything it's that both Rex Ryan and Anthony Lynn were out coached and out game planned. Ryan failing to stop Le'Veon Bell and Lynn's failure to get the Bills run game going. In several games this year, Lynn abandons the run game and forces Tyrod to carry the offense. Which in my view is pretty stupid considering the known limitations in TT, the known receiver issues and knowing that the team needs to run the ball effectively in order to win.

 

This is a big reason I'm hoping that should Ryan get fired that Whaley doesn't promote Lynn to head coach.

[GunnerBill]

 

Want to talk dominant? I look at Buffalo and would say if there is anything dominant about the offense it's LeSean McCoy and his ability to just make some ridiculous moves at times and make defenders look ridiculous attempting to tackle him. Shades of Barry Sanders and Buffalo is so lucky to have a player like him and yet his talent is being wasted just like Barry Sanders was in Detroit. Shady should make the HoF.

 

Cool story except the yards before contact statistics make it clear that as great as Shady is the line even the right side... has been dominant in the run game.

[jms62]

Bottom line here is the Bills offensive line is not "the" problem! Although, in my view, it is part of the problem as RG Miller and RT Mills are simply not good enough. Should the Bills somehow make the playoffs this year and need to play a team in the playoffs these deficiencies in line talent will become more obvious.

 

Want to talk dominant? I look at Buffalo and would say if there is anything dominant about the offense it's LeSean McCoy and his ability to just make some ridiculous moves at times and make defenders look ridiculous attempting to tackle him. Shades of Barry Sanders and Buffalo is so lucky to have a player like him and yet his talent is being wasted just like Barry Sanders was in Detroit. Shady should make the HoF.

 

If that Pittsburgh game showed me anything it's that both Rex Ryan and Anthony Lynn were out coached and out game planned. Ryan failing to stop Le'Veon Bell and Lynn's failure to get the Bills run game going. In several games this year, Lynn abandons the run game and forces Tyrod to carry the offense. Which in my view is pretty stupid considering the known limitations in TT, the known receiver issues and knowing that the team needs to run the ball effectively in order to win.

 

This is a big reason I'm hoping that should Ryan get fired that Whaley doesn't promote Lynn to head coach.

If 40% of the line is determined to be weak how can you say it is not a problem?

[Big Gun]

Bottom line here is the Bills offensive line is not "the" problem! Although, in my view, it is part of the problem as RG Miller and RT Mills are simply not good enough. Should the Bills somehow make the playoffs this year and need to play a team in the playoffs these deficiencies in line talent will become more obvious.

 

Want to talk dominant? I look at Buffalo and would say if there is anything dominant about the offense it's LeSean McCoy and his ability to just make some ridiculous moves at times and make defenders look ridiculous attempting to tackle him. Shades of Barry Sanders and Buffalo is so lucky to have a player like him and yet his talent is being wasted just like Barry Sanders was in Detroit. Shady should make the HoF.

 

If that Pittsburgh game showed me anything it's that both Rex Ryan and Anthony Lynn were out coached and out game planned. Ryan failing to stop Le'Veon Bell and Lynn's failure to get the Bills run game going. In several games this year, Lynn abandons the run game and forces Tyrod to carry the offense. Which in my view is pretty stupid considering the known limitations in TT, the known receiver issues and knowing that the team needs to run the ball effectively in order to win.

 

This is a big reason I'm hoping that should Ryan get fired that Whaley doesn't promote Lynn to head coach.

Kinda like the QB play. When he is bad everyone else looks bad.

[Maury Ballstein]

If 40% of the line is determined to be weak how can you say it is not a problem?

The numbers on blocking and halfrod holding the ball too long have been posted countless times.

 

Let's ignore the numbers because of our CoT oath.

[nucci]

Bottom line here is the Bills offensive line is not "the" problem! Although, in my view, it is part of the problem as RG Miller and RT Mills are simply not good enough. Should the Bills somehow make the playoffs this year and need to play a team in the playoffs these deficiencies in line talent will become more obvious.

 

Want to talk dominant? I look at Buffalo and would say if there is anything dominant about the offense it's LeSean McCoy and his ability to just make some ridiculous moves at times and make defenders look ridiculous attempting to tackle him. Shades of Barry Sanders and Buffalo is so lucky to have a player like him and yet his talent is being wasted just like Barry Sanders was in Detroit. Shady should make the HoF.

 

If that Pittsburgh game showed me anything it's that both Rex Ryan and Anthony Lynn were out coached and out game planned. Ryan failing to stop Le'Veon Bell and Lynn's failure to get the Bills run game going. In several games this year, Lynn abandons the run game and forces Tyrod to carry the offense. Which in my view is pretty stupid considering the known limitations in TT, the known receiver issues and knowing that the team needs to run the ball effectively in order to win.

 

This is a big reason I'm hoping that should Ryan get fired that Whaley doesn't promote Lynn to head coach.

wouldn't this mean that the team is playing well? It would mean they would enter the playoffs on a winning steak with confidence high

[thebandit27]

Cool story except the yards before contact statistics make it clear that as great as Shady is the line even the right side... has been dominant in the run game.

Exactly

 

In order to carry on this thought process, we need to ignore virtually all of the relevant data

[Kirby Jackson]

Exactly

 

In order to carry on this thought process, we need to ignore virtually all of the relevant data

Is there ANY data that supports the run game being anything but dominant? All other Bills stuff aside, their running game (at least statistically) may be the best I've ever seen.

[JohnC]

Is there ANY data that supports the run game being anything but dominant? All other Bills stuff aside, their running game (at least statistically) may be the best I've ever seen.

Could you imagine how effective/potent our offense would be if we had a qb who could throw accurately and spread the ball all over the field? That would give our runners even more room instead of having the defense stacked up to focus on the run game. And yet, even when defenses know that our offense is run-oriented it still does well.

 

Not having a qb who can execute a conventional NFL offense has a profound effect that not only affects the offense but also spills over to the defense that ends up on the field more. If the organization can get that position adequately upgraded the dynamics for this team (on both sides of the ball) will noticeably tick up.

[Kirby Jackson]

Could you imagine how effective/potent our offense would be if we had a qb who could throw accurately and spread the ball all over the field? That would give our runners even more room instead of having the defense stacked up to focus on the run game. And yet, even when defenses know that our offense is run-oriented it still does well.

 

Not having a qb who can execute a conventional NFL offense has a profound effect that not only affects the offense but also spills over to the defense that ends up on the field more. If the organization can get that position adequately upgraded the dynamics for this team (on both sides of the ball) will noticeably tick up.

That's the thing though, TT is a HUGE reason for the effectiveness of the running game. His yards, and ability to keep people at home because of his legs are a part of the reason for the success. An upgraded passing game would come at the expense of the running game. In saying that it would help you come from behind but hurt you in protecting leads. It's a matter of what's the best course of action. As this team is constructed the offense is operating at a high level.

 

I keep posting it but the Bills have the highest YPC as far back as you can tell on ESPN (2002 season). The last 480 NFL teams have averaged less per carry than this Bills team. Would the offense be better with a better passing game but worse running game? The answer is who knows. They are scoring a ton of points though.

Edited December 24, 2016 by Kirby Jackson

[jms62]

Is there ANY data that supports the run game being anything but dominant? All other Bills stuff aside, their running game (at least statistically) may be the best I've ever seen.

You obviosly are younger than 43

Could you imagine how effective/potent our offense would be if we had a qb who could throw accurately and spread the ball all over the field? That would give our runners even more room instead of having the defense stacked up to focus on the run game. And yet, even when defenses know that our offense is run-oriented it still does well.

 

Not having a qb who can execute a conventional NFL offense has a profound effect that not only affects the offense but also spills over to the defense that ends up on the field more. If the organization can get that position adequately upgraded the dynamics for this team (on both sides of the ball) will noticeably tick up.

 

Why would you put a QB that is conventional into an unConventional offense and expect better results? This offense has a track record and none of the QB's executing it successfully were conventional. Bills fans should be focused on the points it is generating and not try and "Fix" it thinking adding a passing or conventional QB will make it better. That thinking is really showing the lack of understanding that the scheme is the thing and this is not some stratomatic game where you can simply plug any player into any schme and expect to get the best of both .

[Maury Ballstein]

Could you imagine how effective/potent our offense would be if we had a qb who could throw accurately and spread the ball all over the field? That would give our runners even more room instead of having the defense stacked up to focus on the run game. And yet, even when defenses know that our offense is run-oriented it still does well.

 

Not having a qb who can execute a conventional NFL offense has a profound effect that not only affects the offense but also spills over to the defense that ends up on the field more. If the organization can get that position adequately upgraded the dynamics for this team (on both sides of the ball) will noticeably tick up.

 

 

This is what I see and it's painful. With a Trent Green/Kirk Cousins/Dalton type this team would be amazing

That's the thing though, TT is a HUGE reason for the effectiveness of the running game. His yards, and ability to keep people at home because of his legs are a part of the reason for the success. An upgraded passing game would come at the expense of the running game. In saying that it would help you come from behind but hurt you in protecting leads. It's a matter of what's the best course of action. As this team is constructed the offense is operating at a high level.

I keep posting it but the Bills have the highest YPC as far back as you can tell on ESPN (2002 season). The last 480 NFL teams have averaged less per carry than this Bills team. Would the offense be better with a better passing game but worse running game? The answer is who knows. They are scoring a ton of points though.

he helps on the options but I'm not so sure the run game would struggle without him.

You obviosly are younger than 43

 

Why would you put a QB that is conventional into an unConventional offense and expect better results? This offense has a track record and none of the QB's executing it successfully were conventional. Bills fans should be focused on the points it is generating and not try and "Fix" it thinking adding a passing or conventional QB will make it better. That thinking is really showing the lack of understanding that the scheme is the thing and this is not some stratomatic game where you can simply plug any player into any schme and expect to get the best of both .

Are you his agent ?

Edited December 24, 2016 by Ryan L Billz

[Kirby Jackson]

You obviosly are younger than 43

 

35

 

I wasn't around for OJ.