Bleeding Bills Blue Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/803302188093161472/photo/1 Not sure what this means - but it looks like they have us as the 9th best team in the league - and higher super bowl odds than 21 other teams. They also thought Hillary wins in a landslide - so who knows.
Beef Jerky Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 So we will win the popular vote while not making the playoffs?
26CornerBlitz Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 On 11/28/2016 at 7:38 PM, Beef Jerky said: So we will win the popular vote while not making the playoffs?
Kirby Jackson Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 On 11/28/2016 at 7:38 PM, Beef Jerky said: So we will win the popular vote while not making the playoffs? :lol:
26CornerBlitz Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 On 11/28/2016 at 7:44 PM, JR in Pittsburgh said: I thought 538 was the only poll predicting trump winning? Nope.
SoFFacet Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 (edited) On 11/28/2016 at 7:28 PM, dneveu said: https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/803302188093161472/photo/1 Not sure what this means - but it looks like they have us as the 9th best team in the league - and higher super bowl odds than 21 other teams. They also thought Hillary wins in a landslide - so who knows. False, they had DJT at 3/10 odds due to the large number of undecided poll respondents and the possibility of polling error. The occurrence of a 30% outcome is not so unlikely that it casts doubt on the model's method. Also, while their poll aggregation model of the election is a relatively unique approach, an ELO model of a competitive sports environment is... not. The most accurate way to interpret that page is that an ELO model would assess the league in that way, today. Not that 538 is definitively declaring the Chiefs to be the 2nd best team or the Bills #9, etc. Edited November 28, 2016 by SoFFacet
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted November 28, 2016 Author Posted November 28, 2016 On 11/28/2016 at 7:53 PM, SoFFacet said: False, they had DJT at 3/10 odds due to the large number of undecided poll respondents and the possibility of polling error. The occurrence of a 30% outcome is not so unlikely that it casts doubt on the model's method. Fair enough. But either way - for some reason their deep statistical analysis lists us as a top 10 football team.
PromoTheRobot Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 On 11/28/2016 at 7:44 PM, JR in Pittsburgh said: I thought 538 was the only poll predicting trump winning? 538 said Hillary would win but they gave Trump a 35% chance which was higher than any other poll.
SoFFacet Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 On 11/28/2016 at 7:55 PM, dneveu said: Fair enough. But either way - for some reason their deep statistical analysis lists us as a top 10 football team. ELO isn't deep statistics. All that happens is that your rating goes up and down based on the ratings of the teams that you win and lose against. ELO is weak against temporary fluctuations in strength such as injury and suspension, but over/under-inflated ratings are eventually ironed out as more outcomes are added.
CommonCents Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ They had his odds of winning at 28 percent.
iinii Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 On 11/28/2016 at 8:07 PM, PromoTheRobot said: 538 said Hillary would win but they gave Trump a 35% chance which was higher than any other poll. Just goes to show how well polls work.
NoSaint Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 On 11/28/2016 at 8:13 PM, iinii said: Just goes to show how well polls work. thats better than 1-3 odds. thats not unreasonable to be on the wrong side of occasionally (roughly 1 in 3 times)
CSBill Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 What was it Mark Twain said? "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."
GRHater69 Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 Does this mean if we make the playoffs I can start a go fund me page for a recount?
hondo in seattle Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 538 has the Bills and Raiders with virtually identical ELO scores. Should be a dog fight.
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted November 28, 2016 Author Posted November 28, 2016 On 11/28/2016 at 8:13 PM, iinii said: Just goes to show how well polls work. Considering i get like 50 extra phone calls during polling season, and ignore every one. I'd have to say it can't be THAT effective.
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