vorpma Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 Protecting the ball, alone, will get you QB stats like under 200 yards passing, minimal TDs and very few INTs. It's nice if you're scoring with special teams, defense and the running game. If you're not scoring/moving chains via other methods, your team will likely end up being about a .500 team. Who wants that??? You must be new to the board!
MAJBobby Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 (edited) https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/touchdown-to-interception-ratio/2016/13 with 3 to 1 and no Tyrod not in there. Maybe what they were trying to say was 2 to 1 let's look at what that is 23 QBs have a 2 to 1 ratio. I bet that was what was meant is a 2 to 1 not 3 to 1 Edited November 28, 2016 by MAJBobby
Blokestradamus Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 I say it every week (like a broken record) but I judge Tyrod on 3 things: not turning it over, 3rd down conversions and RZ scoring. The way that the Bills offense is designed those are the areas where they ask the QB to excel. Basically, "don't make the costly mistake to beat us and when we need you to make a play, you need to make it." They don't ask him to shoulder the load for 4 quarters but on 3rd down and in the red zone he has to move the chains and put point up. We have been good in the red zone and rarely turn it over but the 3rd downs haven't been there. That last part speaks to WHY the opportunities are low. We are sitting at 18th in 3rd down percentage (39.2%). If the Bills could get to 45% they'd be sitting in the top 7. It amounts to just under 1 more conversion a game. That doesn't sound like much but a lot of games are decided within a score. For me, that's the infuriating thing about Tyrod. He's capable of taking those opportunities when they present themselves but seldom do we see him doing the right thing consistently. The margins for error in the NFL are minute. As you said, he's just one conversion a game from being in the upper echelon. I keep harping on about sustainability with this offense and I'm just not seeing it. I'm sure it's quite apparent that my patience is wearing thin. I'm pretty sure the scheme is getting enough targets open-ish for a QB to take advantage.
quinnearlysghost88 Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 Toggling between years for the QB TD/INT Ratio link, the stat only starts to become impactful and an indicator of success when you reach a certain threshold for TDs. If you can still command a 3.0+ ratio after you've thrown say 25+ TDs, you're most likely a playoff/super bowl QB.
Kirby Jackson Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 For me, that's the infuriating thing about Tyrod. He's capable of taking those opportunities when they present themselves but seldom do we see him doing the right thing consistently. The margins for error in the NFL are minute. As you said, he's just one conversion a game from being in the upper echelon. I keep harping on about sustainability with this offense and I'm just not seeing it. I'm sure it's quite apparent that my patience is wearing thin. I'm pretty sure the scheme is getting enough targets open-ish for a QB to take advantage. I think that the bold is really key. To this point they are scoring (and scoring quite a lot) but there feels like there is little room for error. It is like they score or go 3 and out. Maybe that is just my perception but it is frustrating. The Bills probably have the least amount of drives that go 20 - 40 yards. I have no proof of that other than what I think that I am seeing. FWIW, it was similar last year but they hit a lot of balls over the top. I have no idea why that stopped happening? I was really glad to see it return yesterday. They need to hit some big plays and they are capable of it. The controlled passing game should have been alongside the shots down the field, not instead of it. Maybe, it is in part because Watkins was out? Maybe it is because of the change from Roman to Lynn? When you have Watkins, Harvin and Goodwin on your roster you should take a few shots a game.
Blokestradamus Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 (edited) I think that the bold is really key. To this point they are scoring (and scoring quite a lot) but there feels like there is little room for error. It is like they score or go 3 and out. Maybe that is just my perception but it is frustrating. The Bills probably have the least amount of drives that go 20 - 40 yards. I have no proof of that other than what I think that I am seeing. FWIW, it was similar last year but they hit a lot of balls over the top. I have no idea why that stopped happening? I was really glad to see it return yesterday. They need to hit some big plays and they are capable of it. The controlled passing game should have been alongside the shots down the field, not instead of it. Maybe, it is in part because Watkins was out? Maybe it is because of the change from Roman to Lynn? When you have Watkins, Harvin and Goodwin on your roster you should take a few shots a game. Total drives - 119 (7th fewest in the NFL) Three-and-outs - 29 (Tied-8th most in the NFL) Three-and-out % - 24.37% (7th worst in the NFL) Also, only 25th in time of possession. Only possessing the ball 48.64% of the time. Edited November 28, 2016 by Blokestradamus
BUFFALOTONE Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 Don't shoot the messenger. Shoot white and simon. Don't post incorrect information to pad your agenda....or you know, do the research yourself.
bobobonators Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 Total drives - 119 (7th fewest in the NFL) Three-and-outs - 29 (Tied-8th most in the NFL) Three-and-out % - 24.37% (7th worst in the NFL) Also, only 25th in time of possession. Only possessing the ball 48.64% of the time. I think 3rd down conversion is something that definitely needs improvement and it will automatically improve other areas. As for the total drives, are we so low bc the opposing team sustains their drives on us and we dont get the ball back as often as other teams? Is that what that # entails?
Best Player Available Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 Honestly this place is becoming worse than yahoo or youtube comment section. Like what's up with this told you so agenda pushing bull ****? Is it the vocal minority or is this how the most of you feel after a win? I love the info and interacting with other fans...but jesus us christ... Every one of these threads I click I basically know I'm trolling myself; but I do it anyways. Agree 100%
NoSaint Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 I think that the bold is really key. To this point they are scoring (and scoring quite a lot) but there feels like there is little room for error. It is like they score or go 3 and out. Maybe that is just my perception but it is frustrating. The Bills probably have the least amount of drives that go 20 - 40 yards. I have no proof of that other than what I think that I am seeing. FWIW, it was similar last year but they hit a lot of balls over the top. I have no idea why that stopped happening? I was really glad to see it return yesterday. They need to hit some big plays and they are capable of it. The controlled passing game should have been alongside the shots down the field, not instead of it. Maybe, it is in part because Watkins was out? Maybe it is because of the change from Roman to Lynn? When you have Watkins, Harvin and Goodwin on your roster you should take a few shots a game. for the 20--40 yard drives..... we are high in 3 and outs, low in red zone opportunities (and we are high in converting points once we get down the field), so logic would hold that your gut reaction should be true that we are low in the mid length drives that change the field position game without putting up points.
BringBackOrton Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 I say it every week (like a broken record) but I judge Tyrod on 3 things: not turning it over, 3rd down conversions and RZ scoring. The way that the Bills offense is designed those are the areas where they ask the QB to excel. Basically, "don't make the costly mistake to beat us and when we need you to make a play, you need to make it." They don't ask him to shoulder the load for 4 quarters but on 3rd down and in the red zone he has to move the chains and put points up. We have been good in the red zone and rarely turn it over but the 3rd downs haven't been there. That last part speaks to WHY the opportunities are low. We are sitting at 18th in 3rd down percentage (39.2%). If the Bills could get to 45% they'd be sitting in the top 7. It amounts to just under 1 more conversion a game. That doesn't sound like much but a lot of games are decided within a score. Tyrod is a big reason why. Nothing is more frustrating than watching a defense simultaneously attempt to contain and spy him on a 3rd and 4 and all he needs to do is play pitch and catch in a beautiful pocket, and he can't do it. If he was getting no time or opportunities, it'd be one thing. On every third down passing situation, a play is there to be made almost every single time. And we still suck in that situation.
Jobot Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 27 starting QB have a 3:1 TD:Int ratio or better. 27. So, it kinda looks like not turning the ball over isn't necessarily an indicator of a solid NFL starter. It looks like it's a quality just about EVERY qb has. THere is no context given. This would actually prove that this ratio is meaningless as 27 teams do not have a winning record!
Kirby Jackson Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 Tyrod is a big reason why. Nothing is more frustrating than watching a defense simultaneously attempt to contain and spy him on a 3rd and 4 and all he needs to do is play pitch and catch in a beautiful pocket, and he can't do it. If he was getting no time or opportunities, it'd be one thing. On every third down passing situation, a play is there to be made almost every single time. And we still suck in that situation. I am in agreement. That is, above all, my biggest gripe with Tyrod. I really could care less how many yards he throws for. They don't ask him to throw it all over the yard. The Bills attempted 18 passes yesterday. They do ask him to keep drives alive and it doesn't matter if it is with his arm or his feet. It really makes no difference HOW they convert 3rd downs as long as they do. The stats above all support that Tyrod and the offense haven't done a very good job of converting.
BringBackOrton Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 (edited) I am in agreement. That is, above all, my biggest gripe with Tyrod. I really could care less how many yards he throws for. They don't ask him to throw it all over the yard. The Bills attempted 18 passes yesterday. They do ask him to keep drives alive and it doesn't matter if it is with his arm or his feet. It really makes no difference HOW they convert 3rd downs as long as they do. The stats above all support that Tyrod and the offense haven't done a very good job of converting. They don't ask him to do that because he can't, though. And when you have an offense with that glaring deficiency, you are easier to stop. Especially when your biggest strength (deep passes) seemingly are no longer in your repertoire. TT has been worse in almost every way this season and I have seen no reason to expect that to change. Have you? Edited November 28, 2016 by jmc12290
Webster Guy Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 Total attempts to Int is a much more meaningful stat. Some teams are better equipped to run more in the red zone. Better backs, Oline, etc.
Gugny Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 Total attempts to Int is a much more meaningful stat. Some teams are better equipped to run more in the red zone. Better backs, Oline, etc. Total attempts over 5 yards would be even more meaningful, in my opinion.
Kirby Jackson Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 They don't ask him to do that because he can't, though. And when you have an offense with that glaring deficiency, you are easier to stop. Especially when your biggest strength (deep passes) seemingly are no longer in your repertoire. TT has been worse in almost every way this season and I have seen no reason to expect that to change. Have you? This is where we are in disagreement. They don't ask him to because they have scored a lot of points playing their way. The offense was ALWAYS going to be a run first offense and it has worked. They aren't going to start throwing it 40 times a game because people won't expect it. They are going to continue doing what they do well. They are 8th in PPG. If they were 28th I may agree but they haven't had a need to do that. I don't think that he has progressed but I keep coming back to the offense as a whole. If I told you that the Bills would be 8th in PPG wouldn't you think that they would be a winning team? This is more points through 11 games than any Bills team since 1992. The offense isn't a tire fire. While he has his deficiencies, certain things are clearly working. We keep asking, "can it be sustained?" The answer so far is yes. He is 14-11 as a starter. It hasn't been conventional (or pretty) but it has been effective. I do not believe that you could just plug anyone back there and have the same results. He brings an element (his running ability) that is really important in this particular offense. I see both sides....
BringBackOrton Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 This is where we are in disagreement. They don't ask him to because they have scored a lot of points playing their way. The offense was ALWAYS going to be a run first offense and it has worked. They aren't going to start throwing it 40 times a game because people won't expect it. They are going to continue doing what they do well. They are 8th in PPG. If they were 28th I may agree but they haven't had a need to do that. I don't think that he has progressed but I keep coming back to the offense as a whole. If I told you that the Bills would be 8th in PPG wouldn't you think that they would be a winning team? This is more points through 11 games than any Bills team since 1992. The offense isn't a tire fire. While he has his deficiencies, certain things are clearly working. We keep asking, "can it be sustained?" The answer so far is yes. He is 14-11 as a starter. It hasn't been conventional (or pretty) but it has been effective. I do not believe that you could just plug anyone back there and have the same results. He brings an element (his running ability) that is really important in this particular offense. I see both sides.... There's a middle-ground. I don't believe if this team has Marcus Mariota under center, we only call 17 pass plays per game. Maybe we call only 24-26, but there's no way we take the ball out of his hands for quarters of a game. Not to mention it's a chicken and egg scenario. Are we super run dominant because we are deficient at QB and it's worked out for us? Or it's worked and in reality TT can actually shine as a passer? I tend to the former. A different game, but Michigan didn't run the offense they did with Denard Robinson just because they scored a lot. To your question, no. Because that stat doesn't tell the whole story. EJ put us in the top 5 for scoring over the two weeks he played last season and you'd "expect" us to have been in a winning team if that was the only stat you got. When you throw the rest of the stats in the pot, as well as what you see with your eyes, we're right were I expected to be. Some games where we hit a bunch of HR's and blow teams out. Other games where we sputter for 3Q's and our defense dies on the field. And right around .500.
Blokestradamus Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 I think 3rd down conversion is something that definitely needs improvement and it will automatically improve other areas. As for the total drives, are we so low bc the opposing team sustains their drives on us and we dont get the ball back as often as other teams? Is that what that # entails? The T.O.P battle has been wild this year. We've had T.O.P of 24:26 in a win and 40:17 in a loss. In total, winning the battle we're 3-2, losing it we're 3-3. I do wonder if we just do less with the T.O.P than other teams do, run the play clock lower etc. I definitely think the defense overall has helped aid the low drive total as well but the numbers are all over the place. When we point to key moments of the season (OFF futility in Wk 1, run D in Wk7 etc.), we'll find different reasons for why things went wrong.
BADOLBILZ Posted November 28, 2016 Posted November 28, 2016 The T.O.P battle has been wild this year. We've had T.O.P of 24:26 in a win and 40:17 in a loss. In total, winning the battle we're 3-2, losing it we're 3-3. I do wonder if we just do less with the T.O.P than other teams do, run the play clock lower etc. I definitely think the defense overall has helped aid the low drive total as well but the numbers are all over the place. When we point to key moments of the season (OFF futility in Wk 1, run D in Wk7 etc.), we'll find different reasons for why things went wrong. The Bills defense allowed 7 consecutive first downs to start the game yesterday and the Bills had a bunch of big plays on offense so TOP was really jacked and not a good indicator yesterday. For all the handwringing about Tyrod and the offense it's the defense that is the most perplexing part of this team. There are good defenses out there that would be ecstatic to get some of the talent the Bills have in that secondary but they can't make it work and have Bills fans living in fear. Defense sans Dareus looked toothless yesterday. Lorax and Hughes have vanished and the level of play Zach Brown has really dropped off too.
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