What if we finish 10-6?

[Chilly]

I'd like to kill the divisions, have two conferences, do 12/16 conference teams and 4/16 cross conference every year.

[Maury Ballstein]

I'd like to kill the divisions, have two conferences, do 12/16 conference teams and 4/16 cross conference every year.

No way.

 

Redskins/Cowboys/Giants are what it's all about

 

 

Same with Steelers/Ravens/Bengals as well as good old Bills/Dolphins/Jets games.

 

 

Apologies to Chiefs/Broncos and all of the afc south for ommision.

Edited November 23, 2016 by Ryan L Billz

[John from Riverside]

Crack is bad...

Then stop using it!

[Kirby Jackson]

No way.

 

Redskins/Cowboys/Giants are what it's all about

 

 

Same with Steelers/Ravens/Bengals as well as good old Bills/Dolphins/Jets games.

 

 

Apologies to Chiefs/Broncos and all of the afc south for ommision.

Nothing screams rivalry quite like those big Titans - Jags games of yesteryear.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

It'll be a miracle?

[Kirby Jackson]

It'll be a miracle?

I don't know if it will be a "miracle." It is POSSIBLE that the Bills will go off as favorites in 5 of the last 6.

[section122]

But that's the point. Cincy a win a good team would have dominated them.

 

The only games that there is a ? Thrown into is division games. Sneaking past a Jets team that is down is different than sneaking past a bad really bad Cincy team.

So the 7-3 Giants who only won by 1 are a bad team? How about the 6-3-1 Redskins who tied them? For reference that is the teams with the 3rd and 4th best records in the NFC.

 

. I would gladly give up the Rams, AZ and SAN Fran wins for a win against Balt, Jets and Phins.

 

Then at 5-5 I would feel a hell of a lot better than I do right now

 

Or heck maybe keeping the NFC wins and beating the teams we should have beat like Balt, Jets and Phins

 

I get the Jets but why do you keep grouping the Ravens and Phins games as should have won. By record these teams are at the very least as good if not better than the Bills. Could've won yes. Should've won? I don't think so.

[GunnerBill]

 

I get the Jets but why do you keep grouping the Ravens and Phins games as should have won. By record these teams are at the very least as good if not better than the Bills. Could've won yes. Should've won? I don't think so.

Think the point is where we are now even one of those 3 games would be huge. We are a game shy of where I projected us at this stage and it comes back to that home opener.

[John from Riverside]

Think the point is where we are now even one of those 3 games would be huge. We are a game shy of where I projected us at this stage and it comes back to that home opener.

To me the game that hurts is the Ravens game.....because it was definately winnable

[BmarvB]

I don't think it's going to happen. I don't see them beating Oakland, and I also think they'll lose to Pittsburgh. They struggle against good QB's, and until they beat one I'll expect more of the same. I think all the "playoff" talk is a little bit crazy, I just don't see this team going 5-1, or especially 6-0. They needed the Ravens, Jets and Dolphins games, that was their season and in two of those they had a roster at full-strength.

 

If they couldn't beat the Jets, I don't expect them to beat good teams who are playing for their divisions or the playoffs.

If they can get some injured guys back and stay healthy, 9-7 is the worst they'll be. I don't see a win against the Raiders either. Pittsburgh game can go either way depending on which Steelers team shows up. They should win all the others. I'm still not sold on Miami yet.

[GunnerBill]

To me the game that hurts is the Ravens game.....because it was definately winnable

 

Yep. Had chances in all of those 3. Miami probably the least because we didn't make enough plays on either side of the ball.

[section122]

Think the point is where we are now even one of those 3 games would be huge. We are a game shy of where I projected us at this stage and it comes back to that home opener.

 

I agree but he keeps repeating that we should have won those games as if they were easy games. We are a game shy of where I had the Bills as I thought they would win all 3 of those. Then again I had them losing to the Cardinals and Bengals.

 

To me the game that hurts is the Ravens game.....because it was definately winnable

 

The Jets game hurts more for me. Watching Fitz be electric was maddening. I kept saying "he is nowhere near this good!" His wrs were bailing him out on a lot of 50/50 balls but still that one stung. Home opener, Rex's former team, Division game, Primetime. Ravens was a coin toss to me as they are usually tough and 8-1 under Harbaugh in week 1. The fins had finally gotten healthy along the o-line so I was nervous about that one as well. The Jets I thought was in the bag.

[chaccof]

Winning 5 of the last 6 games is possible even if it may not be probable. But if they do it, finish 10-6, and still don't make the playoffs, how many of you would consider it a successful season, and how many would kick dirt on them and scream for some heads to roll and players be sent on their merry little way?

 

Finishing 10-6 and missing the playoffs means the team gets a middle of the road draft pick again and still no playoff's.....so not good enough to make the playoffs, too good to get a top three or top five draft pick....same ol' same ol'

 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

I'm not struggling with a number. A team cannot control the number that gets you into the playoffs. The rest of the league impacts that. You can only control the games that your team plays. If you get to 10 wins and don't get into the playoffs you have done a better job in the regular season than if you win 9 games (or 8) and get a WC.

 

That is exactly why you can't judge a season solely on "playoffs or bust" (and I said that well before this season). You win your games and hope that the odds hold true. The 2008 Patriots were 11-5 and didn't get in. It happens but you still need to win your games to put yourself in position.

Correct. There's two errors a GM/owner can make at the end of every season:

 

1. Thinking his team is better than it really is. This is usually a consequence of putting too much weight on a winning (or for some teams, a .500) record. This happens in baseball all the time, where a team with a great record in 1-run games (something history tells us is mostly explained by luck) that just squeaks into the playoffs thinks "we're just one overpriced starter away from winning it all." The truth is they're many better players away, which is proven when luck normalizes the following year and they go 76-86.

 

2. Not recognizing that his team really is solid and may just be a couple incremental improvements -- an upgrade on special teams, better injury luck, maybe a key free agent acquisition (think "a couple good situational relievers" in baseball) -- from being a true competitor. That causes GMs and owners to overreact and to start firing people left and right.

 

Right now, the objective analysis shows that while the Bills are a .500 team, they've been a very good .500 team plagued by bad situational luck. Barnwell at espn pointed this out a couple weeks ago. 538 currently has the Bills as the NFL's 7th best performing team on its ELO ranking. And that's even with key injuries impacting performance; all teams have injuries, but losing Watkins and Dareus for basically the whole year was pretty major. The biggest bit of bad luck: we share a division with the what is clearly one of the Top 2 teams in football.

 

So a 10-6 (if it happens) combined with the other factors (ELO, injuries, luck, bad officiating?) would tell me that the future is now. The team is as poised to contend as it has been in, oh, 20 years. But unless you can master player evaluation and game preparation (with a little cheating thrown in for good measure) like the Pats, these windows don't stay open for long. I'd be happy with a 10-6, and I'd be ready to trade up for a true impact player or two even if it means mortgaging the out years (say, 2019-22) to make a run for it now.

[Chilly]

No way.

 

Redskins/Cowboys/Giants are what it's all about

 

 

Same with Steelers/Ravens/Bengals as well as good old Bills/Dolphins/Jets games.

 

 

Apologies to Chiefs/Broncos and all of the afc south for ommision.

And they'll still play at least 3 out of every four years, and it'll be more balanced, and you get more high quality matchups each year between teams currently dominating their divisions.

[BigBuff423]

Winning 5 of the last 6 games is possible even if it may not be probable. But if they do it, finish 10-6, and still don't make the playoffs, how many of you would consider it a successful season, and how many would kick dirt on them and scream for some heads to roll and players be sent on their merry little way?

 

 

 

 

 

To answer this question adequately, it really does depend on "how" the team finishes, in what areas are they deficient to finish the season, how was the failure in the second half of the season, etc....? Then, I would have a better answer - but to me, regardless of anything else, QB - a true pocket passer with the ability to see the whole field and be the more cerebral QB - is essential for this team to take the next step.

[Paup 1995MVP]

There was a time when we were LOSING these ugly games.......just sayin

 

The bills are beating the teams they are supposed to beat. It is progress.

 

Glad you are so optimistic about the team. But as long as TT remains our starting QB, most of our games are going to be ugly. And that is because he is not a good passer of the football. All of you Tyrod apologists can come up with all the excuses you want, (lousy receivers, etc) but all you have to do is watch him week after week, and the proof is right in front of you, that his lack of ability in passing the football is holding back this team.

 

That being said, this Bills team seems to have a good amount of grit and fight in them. So we should compete every week from here on in. But it would not shock me if we did not blow out the Jaguars. Or that the Jaguars would still have a chance to win in the 4th qtr. And that is not because of lack of effort and attitude by the Bills. But because our QB can't consistently throw a football at a level needed at the QB position in the NFL. And because of that every game will be a dogfight. I certainly think that we will have a chance to win each of our last 6 games. Be we likely will not win all six because regardless of our fight and effort, our QB is not an NFL caliber passer.

 

Hopefully Doug and Rex realize this, and will make the necessary moves to remedy the situation in the offseason.

[Marty McFly]

Winning 5 of the last 6 games is possible even if it may not be probable. But if they do it, finish 10-6, and still don't make the playoffs, how many of you would consider it a successful season, and how many would kick dirt on them and scream for some heads to roll and players be sent on their merry little way?

Its possible and if Watkins is 100% healthy its likely we go 5-1. If we go 10-6 and miss the playoffs people will still complain. Probably even more cuz of the draft spot and the harder schedule next year, like what happened to the Jets.

[Kirby Jackson]

Glad you are so optimistic about the team. But as long as TT remains our starting QB, most of our games are going to be ugly. And that is because he is not a good passer of the football. All of you Tyrod apologists can come up with all the excuses you want, (lousy receivers, etc) but all you have to do is watch him week after week, and the proof is right in front of you, that his lack of ability in passing the football is holding back this team.

 

That being said, this Bills team seems to have a good amount of grit and fight in them. So we should compete every week from here on in. But it would not shock me if we did not blow out the Jaguars. Or that the Jaguars would still have a chance to win in the 4th qtr. And that is not because of lack of effort and attitude by the Bills. But because our QB can't consistently throw a football at a level needed at the QB position in the NFL. And because of that every game will be a dogfight. I certainly think that we will have a chance to win each of our last 6 games. Be we likely will not win all six because regardless of our fight and effort, our QB is not an NFL caliber passer.

 

Hopefully Doug and Rex realize this, and will make the necessary moves to remedy the situation in the offseason.

I don't think that he is a great thrower of the football but he has been an effective QB. He keeps plays alive,takes care of the ball, makes plays with his legs and has put points on the board (top 10 since the start of 2015). He has done this with bad receivers compared to the rest of the league. That's not being an apologist It is stating facts.

 

Tyrod is not a typical NFL QB but that doesn't mean he isn't as effective or more effective than many "better passers." As an example he doesn't "throw the ball" as well as Sam Bradford but is a superior QB. He needs to be judged on how well he has the offense scoring and executing. Last week was one of his worst in a Bills uniform and he completed like 70% of his passes. That's meaningless. He didn't make the plays in the red zone and on 3rd down.

 

This isn't a Tyrod thread though. I think that the Bills are 5-5 in large part because of Tyrod not despite him. He's an average NFL QB and the Bills have an average record.

Edited November 23, 2016 by Kirby Jackson

[Marty McFly]

I just spent 5 minutes with this thing: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/buffalo-bills-nfl-playoff-picture.html

 

IF all goes as expected(meaning the Pats beat everybody but Denver at home, etc.), we could lose 1 game to either the Jets, Browns, or Jags, and still have a 99% chance to make the playoffs. This is because even if you switch it to the Broncos, losing 0, 1 or 2 to the Chiefs, the outcome stays the same. This, again, is because the Raiders have to play them.

 

Go ahead and make your initial picks, then, see how little effect changing them has. The effect of beating the Steelers, Dophins, and Raiders...makes losing one game to the Jets, Jags, or Browns irrelevant.

 

So, correction: 10-6, provided that one loss is the the last three teams, produces a result of 99% to make the playoffs.

Ive been using the NFL simulator and we get in on almost every 10-6 scenario as long as our loss comes at the hands of Oak or Pitt. So anyway you slice it the Bills control their own destiny. The Ravens, AFCW and Dolphins individual records will impact the Bills chances the most.