bobobonators Posted November 23, 2016 Author Posted November 23, 2016 (edited) The sample size is large enough to be a good sign. In addition the Bills don't play in a division like the NFC south where Atlanta, New Orleans, and Tampa don't play much defense. Everyone plays bad teams so that narrative doesn't really hold. The bigger issue is that they are supposed to be a "defense first" team that is 9th in points and .500. Rex and the defensive side has underachieved as the offense has overachieved. They need to get both sides pushing forward at the same time. I agree regarding the underachievement of the defense. Theyre certainly not horrible but they just have been a bit of a letdown overall so far since the regime change. I think mostly everyone expected the defense to carry the offense the majority of the time and though they have certainly carried the offense numerous times, the majority of the time they havent. To reiterate the most telling number over the past 26 games: we are 7-7 when we score more than 25 points. During the same stretch the Chiefs are 11-1 when they score 25pts or more. Not saying we should be 12-2 in those games but putting up +25 we should have a solid winning record like 10-4 over those 14 games. Again thats the difference between a .500 team and a playoff team. Edited November 23, 2016 by bobobonators
Kirby Jackson Posted November 23, 2016 Posted November 23, 2016 I agree regarding the underachievement of the defense. Theyre certainly not horrible but they just have been a bit of a letdown overall so far since the regime change. I think mostly everyone expected the defense to carry the offense the majority of the time and though they have certainly carried the offense numerous times, the majority of the time they havent. To reiterate the most telling number over the past 26 games: we are 7-7 when we score more than 25 points. During the same stretch the Chiefs are 11-1 when they score 25pts or more. Not saying we should be 12-2 in those games but putting up +25 we should have a solid winning record like 10-4 over those 14 games. Again thats the difference between a .500 team and a playoff team. That's certainly fair and the Chiefs number is CRAZY.
hondo in seattle Posted November 23, 2016 Posted November 23, 2016 Cry and complain all you want about this team, but since the start of 2015 the Buffalo Bills rank 9th in the NFL (and 3rd in the AFC) in points scored with 632 (or 24.3/game). The top 10: 1. Panthers - 743 2. Patriots - 737 3. Cardinals - 716 4. Saints - 693 5. Steelers - 660 6. Falcons - 659 7. Redskins - 641 8. Hawks - 641 9. Bills - 632 10. Raiders - 630 In 26 games we have scored 25 or more points 14 times. Shady has missed or been ineffective due to injury at least 8 of those games (almost 1/3 of the games). Sammy has missed or been ineffective due to injury in at least 13 of those games (exactly half). We are exactly .500 over the last 26 games but I think overall, the arrow is pointing up. Being in the top 10 in the NFL in points scored over the span of more than a season and a half is noteworthy, and certainly no fluke. Credit needs to be given to the coaching staff and the players that have stepped up at WR, the OL, RB, and certainly TT. Points against crappy teams... lipstick on a pig... We can always find reasons to be negative. Hell, fate delivers us Bills fans a lot of reasons to cry. But I think the OP makes an interesting observation. Every team plays crappy teams from time to time and runs up the score when they can. It's an equal playing field. Yet the Bills - despite the injuries - are finding ways to score. A-Lynn et al ought to be commended. Clearly the situation is imperfect. Too many 3 and outs. Too many losses. Still the Bills aren't the Browns partly because the offense can be surprisingly productive.
Jkgobills Posted November 23, 2016 Posted November 23, 2016 Thanks to OP for this topic. I never would have guessed that the Bills were top 10 in scoring since 2015. The Chiefs record when scoring 25+ points vs the Bills record when scoring 25+ points is also indicative of where the team is. Frankly, when Rex was hired, with the defense he inherited, if anyone would have said the Bills would be too,10 in points scored during his tenure.... I would have assumed the Bills to be a playoff team.
manbeast Posted November 23, 2016 Posted November 23, 2016 (edited) Nobody is happy that we're not in a better position in terms of W/L. I think the OP is trying to find a reason to optimistic, and he should be lauded for it. Your wastig your time he and others like him are impossible even when proven wrong or given reasonable arguments they wont budge. They wont even think for a moment that they could be wrong. I could almost understand if they were Pats Fans but The patriot and the Jets fan on this board are more reasonable its quite sad really. Edited November 23, 2016 by manbeast
Pbomb Posted November 23, 2016 Posted November 23, 2016 Context? Its over 26 games not 3 games. You dont think other teams on that list pile up points vs bad teams like we do? Or do the Patriots only play above .500 teams?? The sample size is large enough to be significant. Put your lipstick back in your pocket. exactly and if you look back we only scored above 40 against sf amd mia, only 2 games
Best Player Available Posted November 23, 2016 Posted November 23, 2016 this is awesome. So does this now have more weight than actual W's?
Nihilarian Posted November 23, 2016 Posted November 23, 2016 Cry and complain all you want about this team, but since the start of 2015 the Buffalo Bills rank 9th in the NFL (and 3rd in the AFC) in points scored with 632 (or 24.3/game). The top 10: 1. Panthers - 743 2. Patriots - 737 3. Cardinals - 716 4. Saints - 693 5. Steelers - 660 6. Falcons - 659 7. Redskins - 641 8. Hawks - 641 9. Bills - 632 10. Raiders - 630 In 26 games we have scored 25 or more points 14 times. Shady has missed or been ineffective due to injury at least 8 of those games (almost 1/3 of the games). Sammy has missed or been ineffective due to injury in at least 13 of those games (exactly half). We are exactly .500 over the last 26 games but I think overall, the arrow is pointing up. Being in the top 10 in the NFL in points scored over the span of more than a season and a half is noteworthy, and certainly no fluke. Credit needs to be given to the coaching staff and the players that have stepped up at WR, the OL, RB, and certainly TT. Hey man, this doesn't fit well with all theTyrod haters out there as some just want to complain and point. I'm more concerned about a defense that can't stop even average QB's. But hey, that's me!
Beef Jerky Posted November 23, 2016 Posted November 23, 2016 Does this take out defensive points scored?
Big Turk Posted November 23, 2016 Posted November 23, 2016 Cool ran some points up in some wins against bad teams Can't score in losses against good teams .500 team great We put up 25 against Seattle..should have been enough to win... Like it or not this team scores points with Tyrod for the most part
TPS Posted November 23, 2016 Posted November 23, 2016 The data are just another way of saying the offense is not the reason the Bills won't make the playoffs under RR's 2 years.
bobobonators Posted November 23, 2016 Author Posted November 23, 2016 Does this take out defensive points scored? No its total points scored (defense/special teams included), which also applies to the other teams as well on this list.
John from Riverside Posted November 23, 2016 Posted November 23, 2016 Your wastig your time he and others like him are impossible even when proven wrong or given reasonable arguments they wont budge. They wont even think for a moment that they could be wrong. I could almost understand if they were Pats Fans but The patriot and the Jets fan on this board are more reasonable its quite sad really. For the fun chosen few I feel its just that we are not doing the way THEY envision..... This offense has been pretty potent....the numbers bear that out....and that is missing some key guys but hey....every grocery bagger and car parker in a bills pass catching unit is running wide open every play so
Marty McFly Posted November 23, 2016 Posted November 23, 2016 I agree regarding the underachievement of the defense. Theyre certainly not horrible but they just have been a bit of a letdown overall so far since the regime change. I think mostly everyone expected the defense to carry the offense the majority of the time and though they have certainly carried the offense numerous times, the majority of the time they havent. To reiterate the most telling number over the past 26 games: we are 7-7 when we score more than 25 points. During the same stretch the Chiefs are 11-1 when they score 25pts or more. Not saying we should be 12-2 in those games but putting up +25 we should have a solid winning record like 10-4 over those 14 games. Again thats the difference between a .500 team and a playoff team. That is a crazy stat with KC. I think our offense is over-achieving for what its designed to be. I think people forget we are supposed to be a pound the rock play stout defense type of team. We got lucky with Tyrod, he opened up a new way to run this offense and its exciting to watch. We are a boom or bust team but when our offense is working, we look like a top 10 team. People take Tyrod for granted but I shudder to think how we would look with EJ under center for the last 2 seasons, we would have better draft picks but the games would be a snore to get through. Putting up 25 is usually a recipe for the win but the defense doesnt always pull its weight. We got lucky last week, defense won us that game as the offense struggled a bit. I can tell you this, our offense has won more games for us the past 2 seasons than our defense has, and thats not how this team was built.
reddogblitz Posted November 23, 2016 Posted November 23, 2016 We are exactly .500 over the last 26 games but I think overall, the arrow is pointing up. Actually we are exactly .500 over the last 34 games. 4-4 last 8 games of '14, 8-8 in '15 and 5-5 so far this year. I hope you're right about the needle part. I guess it is better than going 6-10 every year. Go BILLS!!
C.Biscuit97 Posted November 23, 2016 Posted November 23, 2016 I always respect optimism. That said, stats can be used anyway you want to make points. I used to use stats to compare EJ, Trent, & JP's career starts to other HOF qbs! Honestly, when you watch this team, do you see a top 10 offense? Because I don't. We are a top 3 running team and maybe the worst passing offense in the NFL. If we fall behind in a game, we are dead.
bobobonators Posted November 24, 2016 Author Posted November 24, 2016 (edited) I always respect optimism. That said, stats can be used anyway you want to make points. I used to use stats to compare EJ, Trent, & JP's career starts to other HOF qbs! Honestly, when you watch this team, do you see a top 10 offense? Because I don't. We are a top 3 running team and maybe the worst passing offense in the NFL. If we fall behind in a game, we are dead. When i see this offense i see a good overall offense. Ive said that numerous times throughout the year. There is no doubt that injuries have limited our explosiveness to a certain extent this year. You not seeing a top 10 offense is up to you. If you think theyre avg or even below avg thats up to you. A lot of people believe in a lot of different things in this world and its tiring to argue. And im not fudging some odd stat to try and prove a point. The stat is as simple, logical, and as unadulterated as it can get. Edited November 24, 2016 by bobobonators
Sisyphean Bills Posted November 25, 2016 Posted November 25, 2016 I agree regarding the underachievement of the defense. Theyre certainly not horrible but they just have been a bit of a letdown overall so far since the regime change. I think mostly everyone expected the defense to carry the offense the majority of the time and though they have certainly carried the offense numerous times, the majority of the time they havent. To reiterate the most telling number over the past 26 games: we are 7-7 when we score more than 25 points. During the same stretch the Chiefs are 11-1 when they score 25pts or more. Not saying we should be 12-2 in those games but putting up +25 we should have a solid winning record like 10-4 over those 14 games. Again thats the difference between a .500 team and a playoff team. I'm going to disagree and say 2014 was a one year in a row, card carrying, anomaly. That is, the defense has been otherwise mediocre to poor under two regimes. In historical context, Rex Ryan's defense has been a statistical improvement over every "sling a bunch of stuff against the wall" attempt made under Buddy Nix's reign. One has to go back to Dick Jauron to find defenses that were as consistently mediocre to drifting above average as the Ryan defense. Between, the D sucked hugely. The Bills really haven't had great defenses in a generation. Gregg Williams rebuilt the defense into a good unit before he walked the plank, and it fell apart under Mularkey and Marv Levy. Steady excellence? Wade Phillips, as he seems to always do, had an excellent unit.
Sisyphean Bills Posted November 25, 2016 Posted November 25, 2016 Shwartzs scheme fit perfectly for the personnel in place which is why you saw a very good defense in 2014. For whatever reason the Bills brass said !@#$ it and hired Rex. I agree that the personnel fit his scheme. It was only one year. It was the definition of an anomaly. There is a tendency for us fans to assume that any upward tick is a harbinger of a meteoric rise to greatest. It happens often enough. Some player has a good season, and it's a lock that the good times will just keep going. Unfortunately, it rarely pans out that way. e.g., Trent Edwards spends the off-season working on his putting, and the wheels come off the bus. Suits get worried and promoted, coaching staffs get fired, and the vicious circle of mediocrity spins like an empty bottle round and round and round.
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