CosmicBills Posted February 25, 2005 Share Posted February 25, 2005 I agree.....Seriously, how could JP possibly do worse? 252464[/snapback] JP could very well do much worse than Drew. And if history is any guide, the odds are he WILL do worse than Drew. Here's a comparison: Drew's numbers in 2004 76.6 rating 20 TD 16 INT 56.9 comp% Compare that to some of the more prominent first year QBs over the years. Broken into catagories: Really bad, Slightly Worse than Drew, Better than Drew REALLY BAD Carr 62.8 9TD 15INT 52.5% Kyle Boller 62.4 7TD 9INT 51.8 (*Made playoffs) Harrington 59.9 12TD 16INT 50.1% Eli Manning 55.4 6TD 9INT 48.2% SLIGHTLY WORSE: Ramsey 75.8 14TD 9INT 53% Plummer 75 17TD 20INT 59% Peyton Manning 71.2 rating 26TD 28INT 56.7% McNair 70.4 24TD 13 INT 52% BETTER THAN DREW Big Ben 98.1 17TD 11INT 66% (*Playoffs) Culpepper 98 33TD 16INT 62.7% (*Playoffs) Vick 81.6 16TD 8INT 54.9 (*Playoffs) Palmer 77.3 18TD 18INT 60.9 ------------------------------- Take a look at the "Better list": Culpepper sat for 2 years before stepping on the field, he was seasoned and ready to take over. Vick was great, but let's face it...JP is NOT Mike Vick (for better and worse). A lot of people want to compare JP's situation to Big Ben's but that isn't really fair. The Bills are not as good as Pittsburgh. Their line, their running game and their Defense are all worse. So to expect JP to be like Big Ben is not realistic. Of all the QBs on the "better list", Palmer may be the best example. Cincy and Buffalo look very similar (Great running game and WRs, good defenses, on the cusp of the playoffs). I think at best you can expect JP to match Palmer's numbers, but that may even be a stretch considering Palmer was a heisman winner and MUCH more polished coming out of school than JP was... As bad as Drew was this year (and he was bad), it's assanine to believe JP can't possibly do worse than Drew. History just doesn't show this to be true. Does this mean I think JP will be a bust? No. But I am prepared for a long learning curve. The Bills D and ST are good enough to win a few games, but there is no way the Bills can win 10 games UNLESS JP beats the odds and plays better than the majority of First Year starters do. And unless the Bills win 10 games, they won't be in the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rico Posted February 25, 2005 Share Posted February 25, 2005 JP could very well do much worse than Drew. And if history is any guide, the odds are he WILL do worse than Drew. Here's a comparison: Drew's numbers in 2004 76.6 rating 20 TD 16 INT 56.9 comp% 253046[/snapback] Numbers only tell a small part of the story. JP may put up worse numbers in all 4 of those categories & still be more effective than Drew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CosmicBills Posted February 25, 2005 Share Posted February 25, 2005 Numbers only tell a small part of the story. JP may put up worse numbers in all 4 of those categories & still be more effective than Drew. 253059[/snapback] That's a fair point. But still, only 4 of those QBs got to the playoffs...and only one of them put up worse numbers than Drew. Boller played on a better team and in a weaker division, though (in my opinion). I dont think JP can throw only 7TDs and still get the Bills to the playoffs, do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LabattBlue Posted February 25, 2005 Share Posted February 25, 2005 Let's see..... we have njsue predicting a 1-15 record for next year and JohninMinn predicting 3-13. Anyone else want to hop on their "we're doomed without Drew" bandwagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CosmicBills Posted February 25, 2005 Share Posted February 25, 2005 Let's see..... we have njsue predicting a 1-15 record for next year and JohninMinn predicting 3-13. Anyone else want to hop on their "we're doomed without Drew" bandwagon. 253061[/snapback] To clarify (since my post seems like I am bashing JP), I am in favor of JP starting for this team. I just am not expecting him to lead this team to the playoffs right away... I also don't expect the Bills to be 3-13. I think more like 8-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted February 25, 2005 Share Posted February 25, 2005 Here's another old article about JPDonohoe bet the farm on Greg Williams and Rob Johnson and now..... No way can JP be groomed before the nucleus of this team is disbanded. Mark these words The whole "small market" franchise is in jeopardy and riding on the hopes of a raw not very bright college kid with all the "physical skills." 252393[/snapback] How many more times will you post this same article??...sheesh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rico Posted February 25, 2005 Share Posted February 25, 2005 That's a fair point. But still, only 4 of those QBs got to the playoffs...and only one of them put up worse numbers than Drew. Boller played on a better team and in a weaker division, though (in my opinion). I dont think JP can throw only 7TDs and still get the Bills to the playoffs, do you? 253060[/snapback] If Willis runs for over 2000 yards, why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABills Posted February 25, 2005 Share Posted February 25, 2005 Let's see..... we have njsue predicting a 1-15 record for next year and JohninMinn predicting 3-13. Anyone else want to hop on their "we're doomed without Drew" bandwagon. 253061[/snapback] How about we were screwed either way. But the difference will be IMHO 9-7 with Drew, 6-10 with JP. Either way we probably miss the playoffs. Just one keeps you competative and sells more tickets in December then the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ1 Posted February 25, 2005 Share Posted February 25, 2005 Numbers only tell a small part of the story. JP may put up worse numbers in all 4 of those categories & still be more effective than Drew. 253059[/snapback] By not making dumbass decisions at the worst possible times. Raw stats don't capture that. Going back and watching film, comparing the play executed to the play actually called all weigh in making an effective evaluation of a QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CosmicBills Posted February 25, 2005 Share Posted February 25, 2005 If Willis runs for over 2000 yards, why not? 253067[/snapback] I'll take that!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rico Posted February 25, 2005 Share Posted February 25, 2005 By not making dumbass decisions at the worst possible times. Raw stats don't capture that. 253069[/snapback] Exactly. Look what Drew did in 3 of the biggest games of the year (Pats, at Ravens, Steelers): each one he gave up a critical, game-turning/game-ending turnover that was returned for a TD. :I starred in Brokeback Mountain: That doesn't show up in 76.6 rating 20 TD 16 INT 56.9 comp% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LabattBlue Posted February 25, 2005 Share Posted February 25, 2005 How about we were screwed either way. But the difference will be IMHO 9-7 with Drew, 6-10 with JP. Either way we probably miss the playoffs. Just one keeps you competative and sells more tickets in December then the other. 253068[/snapback] VA...6-10 is a reasonable prediction and I believe that we could end up there. If JP exceeds everyones expectations, we could just as easily end up 10-6. What I don't believe is reasonable, are posters coming out and predicting 1 or 3 win season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buftex Posted February 25, 2005 Share Posted February 25, 2005 Now we're digging up old 2004 Draft articles to prove our points about Losman?? Give me a break. Did Roethlisberger's pre-draft writeup say, "Has good head on shoulders. Will be ready to lead future NFL team to 15-1 record and appearance in AFC Championship game should starting QB go down early in the season." Losman has thrown exactly five passes in the NFL so far. FIVE. Can we please wait to determine whether or not the kid is going to suceed or fail after he's thrown at least 10? Is it really necessary to dig up old scouting reports?? 252580[/snapback] I agree that it is silly to speculate how well Losman will do, because none of us really knows a thing about him. I will say, however, in nearly every pre-draft report concerning Losman, there was glowing refernces to his athleticism, and concerns about his attitude and or personality. At the time, it struck me as a little odd. If they meant that he had an "attitude" like a Jim Kelly attitude (kind of cocky, maybe kind of an immature punk early on) I can very much live with that. The only real insightful thing, I have seen with my own eyes (albeit in an ESPN edited form) was the special that ESPN ran, where they followed 4 '04 NFL draft picks through the draft, and training camp. The impression that I got of Losman, was that yes, he seemed very young, he had a funny voice (he better be good, or Losman bashers will have a field day with that), but he came off as eager (in a good way), humble (in a good way) and poised. While I won't assume that this means he "can't do any worse than Bledsoe did" (some of you need to watch other NFL teams than the Bills from time to time, before making asinine comments like that), I also think there is some reason to be optimistic...I won't be shocked if his progression sets the team back a degree this year (hey, we're Bills fans, next year is always in view), this team should still have enough talent, if things are done right, to be a serious playoff contender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark VI Posted February 25, 2005 Share Posted February 25, 2005 I agree that it is silly to speculate how well Losman will do, because none of us really knows a thing about him. 253084[/snapback] Wise word. I'm willing to put faith in Coaches who know far more about the game of football then we'll ever know. People by the name of Mularkey, Clements and Wyche. They agreed on this change to Losman due to DB's overall poor play. I find it ironic that posters who tired quickly of the DB criticism before he was cut seem eager to start multiple threads critisizing Losman and predicting impending doom. Seems we now have 2 dead horses. One is justified to beat, the other isn't. Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buftex Posted February 25, 2005 Share Posted February 25, 2005 Wise word. I'm willing to put faith in Coaches who know far more about the game of football then we'll ever know. People by the name of Mularkey, Clements and Wyche. They agreed on this change to Losman due to DB's overall poor play. I find it ironic that posters who tired quickly of the DB criticism before he was cut seem eager to start multiple threads critisizing Losman and predicting impending doom. Seems we now have 2 dead horses. One is justified to beat, the other isn't. Got it. 253329[/snapback] I got tired of the Bledsoe bashing pretty quick, but never once did I criticize Losman, or say I didn't think he should be given every chance to be the starter next season...I have seen every one of his regular season snaps, and about half his pre-season work. From that, I can draw no real conclusions as to how good he might be. I am not entirely sure why, but I have a good feeling about the Bills new coaching staff, and I agree, that gives the decision they made more creedence with me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rico Posted February 25, 2005 Share Posted February 25, 2005 Seems we now have 2 dead horses. One is justified to beat, the other isn't. 253329[/snapback] I just LOVE hearing that from a moderator! Welcome back Mark VI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark VI Posted February 26, 2005 Share Posted February 26, 2005 I got tired of the Bledsoe bashing pretty quick, but never once did I criticize Losman, or say I didn't think he should be given every chance to be the starter next season...I have seen every one of his regular season snaps, and about half his pre-season work. From that, I can draw no real conclusions as to how good he might be. I am not entirely sure why, but I have a good feeling about the Bills new coaching staff, and I agree, that gives the decision they made more creedence with me... 253356[/snapback] That wasn't directed at you, D. I was just using your quote and you certainly are fair in your views towards this QB situation. ..you big ugly bastard.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted February 26, 2005 Share Posted February 26, 2005 ..you big ugly bastard.. 253479[/snapback] Takes one to know one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted February 26, 2005 Share Posted February 26, 2005 Here's another old article about JPDonohoe bet the farm on Greg Williams and Rob Johnson and now..... No way can JP be groomed before the nucleus of this team is disbanded. Mark these words The whole "small market" franchise is in jeopardy and riding on the hopes of a raw not very bright college kid with all the "physical skills." 252393[/snapback] And you'll be #1 in line to say, "I told you so." BFD Your Drew is gone. He's wearing another woman's colors tonight. Weep all you want. Sorrow is a jealous mistress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BB2004 Posted February 26, 2005 Share Posted February 26, 2005 Here's another old article about JPDonohoe bet the farm on Greg Williams and Rob Johnson and now..... No way can JP be groomed before the nucleus of this team is disbanded. Mark these words The whole "small market" franchise is in jeopardy and riding on the hopes of a raw not very bright college kid with all the "physical skills." 252393[/snapback] We'll see. I n the meantime, stay optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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