dorquemada Posted November 1, 2016 Author Share Posted November 1, 2016 it has nothing to do with being a "homer" but rather about evaluating the play of certain units. Do you also think that everyone obviously played "well" for the Pats, since they won and scored 41? When you build a statistical model, which is what I'm talking about, it's important to have meaningful metrics. When I built a tool (this was like 20 years ago using SPSS) to predict games, the first thing I did was load a bunch of high level historical data... wins/losses, yards for and against, turnovers, time of possession, and a few others. Then I had to do some modelling to see which of those variables had the highest correlation to wins. With that information, I could weight certain variables, and proceed with the predictive model. That's a long way to say... in effect, that the proof is in the pudding. The DL may have had a good statistical performance, but as part of a system, they failed. Whatever they did do, they didn't, as a system, prevent the pats from scoring. Now, it's been stated above, and we all know it to be true, that the Bills simply don't measure up to the Pats, which is why I said we need to look holistically at the season and the next few weeks, but it will be interesting to parse the data later to see if the D performed better overall with MD in there, versus not, with "performed better" being measured by how many points they allow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 When you build a statistical model, which is what I'm talking about, it's important to have meaningful metrics. When I built a tool (this was like 20 years ago using SPSS) to predict games, the first thing I did was load a bunch of high level historical data... wins/losses, yards for and against, turnovers, time of possession, and a few others. Then I had to do some modelling to see which of those variables had the highest correlation to wins. With that information, I could weight certain variables, and proceed with the predictive model. That's a long way to say... in effect, that the proof is in the pudding. The DL may have had a good statistical performance, but as part of a system, they failed. Whatever they did do, they didn't, as a system, prevent the pats from scoring. Now, it's been stated above, and we all know it to be true, that the Bills simply don't measure up to the Pats, which is why I said we need to look holistically at the season and the next few weeks, but it will be interesting to parse the data later to see if the D performed better overall with MD in there, versus not, with "performed better" being measured by how many points they allow Then what you're really trying to say is that the DL isn't the key factor in winning against NE; not that the DL couldn't have played well because we didn't win. Those are two markedly different statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87168 Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 (edited) I'm not sure we can say anyone played "well" given the result. they efficiently stopped the run, and put pressure on Brady. the front played well and did their job. Brady beat us through the air, as he is one to do, and our weak secondary was exposed. this crusade really needs to and. the man is back, let him play. Edited November 1, 2016 by 87168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Fong Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Which I did point out. here's the thing, Seattle is a good team too. Do we ignore whatever data comes out of that game? When can we judge what's going on, only when the Bills play sub .500 teams? 41 points is the most the pats have scored on the bills since 2012, and the 4th most given up since 1990. I'll agree that the backfield was the real problem, but that doesn't mean the front 7 were effective, overall I guess im not as much a homer for the bills as I used to be because I see 41 points given up, and I'm not looking for bright spots, but see a systemic failure of the D. I'm sure glad they got 5 sacks though, looks good on the season ending stats sheet. That's the thing, the Bills are a team that can beat up the below average to average teams and aren't ready for the top of the NFL. I hope to see improvement in the Seattle game and I believe they can make it a game, however, it still is a Monday Night road game on the west coast. That's a pretty tough order. I think the more fair measure will be how they do with the remainder of the schedule, which is a little more favorable. It sucks because I wanted this to be the year when they finally ended this playoff drought, but I think dropping the first two games and having a roster dinged by injuries has doomed this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorquemada Posted November 1, 2016 Author Share Posted November 1, 2016 Then what you're really trying to say is that the DL isn't the key factor in winning against NE; not that the DL couldn't have played well because we didn't win. Those are two markedly different statements. You are correct in a sense. There's truth in that apparently Tom Brady can neutralize a good front 7. My original question was about the D's performance holistically, with MD in there versus when he isn't. I'll wait for more data, then look at it again. That's the thing, the Bills are a team that can beat up the below average to average teams and aren't ready for the top of the NFL. I hope to see improvement in the Seattle game and I believe they can make it a game, however, it still is a Monday Night road game on the west coast. That's a pretty tough order. I think the more fair measure will be how they do with the remainder of the schedule, which is a little more favorable. It sucks because I wanted this to be the year when they finally ended this playoff drought, but I think dropping the first two games and having a roster dinged by injuries has doomed this season. On that note, I'll be in Vegas for a work thing next week, love seeing monday night football at 530, and the election returns at a less crazy hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heitz Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Communication seemed to be the issue on defense. Much like last yea... That's for sure - not many people are talking about loss of A Williams, but seemed to make a big difference to me. On that TD to Hogan, Gilmore is stopping to yell at Blanton and he also seemed to miss a few other plays in that game. Need to get that guy up to speed ASAP! As has been mentioned, give me a S and a CB (and a WR) in the draft please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaaadThingsMan Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Team chemistry is important, it's hard to say how the players welcomed Mr. Big Puff back in the locker room but on the field they looked good. If he continues to make plays like he is capable of, the chemistry, if compromised as you surmise, will improve. Winning helps too. The communications and *cheats schemes broke down the defense, not the performance of the front 7. They were mostly fantastic and Mr. Big Puff was as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 I'm not sure we can say anyone played "well" given the result. I disagree. Breakdowns in coverage cost us the game, essentially. Front seven did their job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Spending all that loot for probowl 3 technique DT to play NT is an abject waste of money. look for him to be a cap casualty as soon as it makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Spending all that loot for probowl 3 technique DT to play NT is an abject waste of money. look for him to be a cap casualty as soon as it makes sense. Huh? He was great on Sunday. Don't let the "NT" label fool you--he's got freedom to make plays in this defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganesh Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Is it possible the opposing team had something to do with the defense allowing 41 points? They did stuff the run and sack the QB 5 times. Perhaps against a lesser team the defensive line will not be a problem. Besides, we all know the Bills issues stem from Tyrod Taylor's play. I've seen that in numerous other threads so it must be true. And the play calling. The game dictated that we run the ball and we were running effectively and yet we went a throwing-match up with Brady and lost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 @Cover1Bills Marcel Dareus-41 snaps, 2 tackles 3 stops. Shows off his power and quickness. Good to have him back https://twitter.com/i/videos/tweet/793519872810557440 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 @Cover1Bills Marcel Dareus-41 snaps, 2 tackles 3 stops. Shows off his power and quickness. Good to have him back https://twitter.com/i/videos/tweet/793519872810557440 Impossible! Why, I've read right here in these very parts that there is NO WAY Dareus can be a 2-gapper! Seriously, he can play just about every DL technique between the tackles. Not bad for a tub of goo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Impossible! Why, I've read right here in these very parts that there is NO WAY Dareus can be a 2-gapper! Seriously, he can play just about every DL technique between the tackles. Not bad for a tub of goo. Does this have anything to do with chemistry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Does this have anything to do with chemistry? Depends on the chemical components of the precise goo in question. Dareus is in my doghouse. He needed to use those four weeks to stay in shape and he didn't. He lacks football character, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorquemada Posted November 1, 2016 Author Share Posted November 1, 2016 Depends on the chemical components of the precise goo in question. Dareus is in my doghouse. He needed to use those four weeks to stay in shape and he didn't. He lacks football character, imo. So maybe this is the point I was getting at but didn't make clear. MD may himself play great. He has, does, and will. Do the players around him, some of whom (thinking about guys like Lorax and the other parts bins players) are making not much over league vet minimum, feel as motivated as they did before? You would hope they do, and are all still playing to their peak potential, but as someone who manages a team of professionals, I can tell you for cold hard fact that when I bring someone new onto the team, if the others find out that person is making more then them, it's always the same reaction, and their expectation of that new person is always in excess of what is reasonable to ask, and they'll fold their arms and put their feet up, metaphorically. This is a big reason why salary discussions are 100% verboten, and a fire-able offense. I realize pro sports aren't the same as corporate office drones, but human emotions exist in both places and people can be super petty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 So maybe this is the point I was getting at but didn't make clear. MD may himself play great. He has, does, and will. Do the players around him, some of whom (thinking about guys like Lorax and the other parts bins players) are making not much over league vet minimum, feel as motivated as they did before? You would hope they do, and are all still playing to their peak potential, but as someone who manages a team of professionals, I can tell you for cold hard fact that when I bring someone new onto the team, if the others find out that person is making more then them, it's always the same reaction, and their expectation of that new person is always in excess of what is reasonable to ask, and they'll fold their arms and put their feet up, metaphorically. This is a big reason why salary discussions are 100% verboten, and a fire-able offense. I realize pro sports aren't the same as corporate office drones, but human emotions exist in both places and people can be super petty Motivation and attitude are personal responsibilities. If anyone harbors resentment towards Dareus to the point of letting it impact their play on the field, they need to be shown the door. In the pinned "Bills vs. Seahawks" preparation thread above, there is a great linked article about Alexander. We need 52 other players with that mindset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorquemada Posted November 1, 2016 Author Share Posted November 1, 2016 Motivation and attitude are personal responsibilities. If anyone harbors resentment towards Dareus to the point of letting it impact their play on the field, they need to be shown the door. In the pinned "Bills vs. Seahawks" preparation thread above, there is a great linked article about Alexander. We need 52 other players with that mindset. I agree with your first sentence 100%. I've had to have hard conversations with direct reports on this very thing. I'm not asking, though, if it's right or wrong, I'm asking if it's happening, and if it's effecting the performance of the D. Different question, and in my mind one worth trying to figure out, but not enough data yet as we all realize that Tom Brady is a literal God King in his utter dominance of whatever D the Bills put out there against him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heitz Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Motivation and attitude are personal responsibilities. If anyone harbors resentment towards Dareus to the point of letting it impact their play on the field, they need to be shown the door. Not to mention it would be counterproductive to their career - all NFL players know they're putting plays on tape, to simply slack because a good player (one who might even help the overall unit's level of play) is back, would just be dumb. The D line looked good to me last week, they didn't get there every time, but were applying pressure and getting hits. I think the biggest factor, was that QB the Pats had playing, that kid can make plays... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Not to mention it would be counterproductive to their career - all NFL players know they're putting plays on tape, to simply slack because a good player (one who might even help the overall unit's level of play) is back, would just be dumb. The D line looked good to me last week, they didn't get there every time, but were applying pressure and getting hits. I think the biggest factor, was that QB the Pats had playing, that kid can make plays... The concept of putting something on tape is true. If MW played lights out last season, does it stand to reason he would have garnered more attention and more dollars as a free agent? Gilmore is doing the same thing this season. And I'm not convinced he's gonna cause a bidding war as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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