Updated (SEA) Bills 2016 Drop rate and Bad Pass Rate

[MAJBobby]

Ok, Numbers updated to include the SEA Game (0 Drops, 1 Bad pass from the SEA Game.)


Bills have logged a total of 7 drops. (Had 15 drops last year)

Ok here is the WRs that actually dropped a pass and their drop rate for the Bills WRs.

Woods - TGTs (57), Catches (39), Drops (2), Drop % (3.5%), Catch % (68.4%)
Powell - TGTs (24), Catches (13), Drops (2), Drop % (8.3%), Catch % (54.2%)
Watkins - TGTs (11), Catches (6), Drops (1), Drop % (9.1%), Catch % (54.5%)
Tate - TGTs (5), Catches (4), Drops (1), Drop % (20%), Catch % (80%)
Clay - TGTs (46), Catches (29), Drops (1), Drop % (2.2), Catch % (63.0%)

Here are the rates for the Players that have not logged a drop to date.

 

Salas - TGTs (6), Catches (4), Drops (0), Drop % (0), Catch % (66.7%)

O'Leary - TGTs (8), Catches (7), Drops (0), Drop % (0), Catch % (87.5%)

Bush - TGTs (8), Catches (5), Drops (0), Drop % (0), Catch % (62.5%)

Hunter - TGTs (14), Catches (6), Drops (0), Drop % (0), Catch % (42.9%)

Goodwin - TGTs (37), Catches (16), Drops (0), Drop % (0), Catch % (43.2%)

Felton - TGTs (6), Catches (3), Drops (0), Drop % (0), Catch % (50.0%)

McCoy - TGTs (28), Catches (24), Drops (0), Drop % (0), Catch % (85.7%)

Gillislee - TGTs (9), Catches (8), Drops (0), Drop % (0), Catch % (88.9%)

http://www.sportingc...ats/drops/2016/

Tyrod Taylor is ranked as having the 11th lowest drop rate by his WRs. (of starters)

7 drops out of 268 attempts - with a 2.61% drop rate effecting him. - 2016
Last Year 13 Drops out of 380 attempts with a 3.42% drop rate effecting him

http://www.sportingc...arterback/2016/

Now on Flip side he also has the Highest bad pass % in the NFL.

57 bad passes in 268 attempts. for a 21.27% bad pass rate
Last year - 67 bad passes in 380 attempts for a 17.63% (better than this year)

http://www.sportingc...ercentage/2016/

Edited November 8, 2016 by MAJBobby

[TakeYouToTasker]

Bobby, you should edit and add to your OP every week and simply bump the thread so that the data doesn't get lost in a sea of arguments about the data.

 

Just a thought.

[MAJBobby]

Bobby, you should edit and add to your OP every week and simply bump the thread so that the data doesn't get lost in a sea of arguments about the data.

 

Just a thought.

Yeah was going to do that one the one i made last week. But reason i didnt on this one is I wanted to update the title too. I do plan on editing this one going forward though

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Hey - does a throwaway count as a "bad pass"? I can't tell from the way they present the data.

 

This is all they say:

 

Quarterback Bad Pass Percentage measures the percentage of a quartebacks pass attempts that were considered to be poorly thrown (otherwise known as un-catchable) and leads to an incompleted pass.

 

Part of the reason I ask is that he throws it away WAY too much while trying to find people. He needs to use his legs more and just get positive yards. I hate when he scrambles, has a path towards a possible first down and chucks it 50 yards to hunter only for it to be incomplete. If you have one man to beat for the marker, try and beat him to the marker!

Edited November 1, 2016 by dneveu

[MAJBobby]

Hey - does a throwaway count as a "bad pass"? I can't tell from the way they present the data.

 

This is all they say:

 

Quarterback Bad Pass Percentage measures the percentage of a quartebacks pass attempts that were considered to be poorly thrown (otherwise known as un-catchable) and leads to an incompleted pass.

Part of the reason I ask is that he throws it away WAY too much while trying to find people. He needs to use his legs more and just get positive yards.

 

No it doesnt if you look at your incompletions by type stat they have you will see the throwaways and they are not of the bad pass count

 

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-incompletions-by-type/2016/

Edited November 1, 2016 by MAJBobby

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

No it doesnt if you look at your incompletions by type stat they have you will see the throwaways and they are not of the bad pass count

Woof then. He needs to ease up on the 1/15 deep ball type of games then.

 

I'm not a big stats guy, but in all of our losses this year - he was ineffective. I think he honestly needs to run more, and not worry about getting hurt. I know it's not college etc. But you watch some of the more athletic QBs in college, and they do a great job of taking what the defense gives you.

Edited November 1, 2016 by dneveu

[MAJBobby]

Woof then. He needs to ease up on the 1/15 deep ball type of games then.

 

I'm not a big stats guy, but in all of our losses this year - he was ineffective. I think he honestly needs to run more, and not worry about getting hurt. I know it's not college etc. But you watch some of the more athletic QBs in college, and they do a great job of taking what the defense gives you.

I get the running comment, my issue though is that is not long term sustainable. A QB has to learn how to be effective in thr pocket, otherwise his ceiling is pretty low in the NFL

[hondo in seattle]

I get the running comment, my issue though is that is not long term sustainable. A QB has to learn how to be effective in thr pocket, otherwise his ceiling is pretty low in the NFL

 

Maybe the reality is that his ceiling as a passer is low. Maybe he's a more effective runner than passer. To play to his strengths, maybe the right progression for him is (1) throw to primary, (2) run.

[MAJBobby]

 

Maybe the reality is that his ceiling as a passer is low. Maybe he's a more effective runner than passer. To play to his strengths, maybe the right progression for him is (1) throw to primary, (2) run.

Then you need to move on. You cannot win long term with someone so limited from the pocket. That is proven

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I get the running comment, my issue though is that is not long term sustainable. A QB has to learn how to be effective in thr pocket, otherwise his ceiling is pretty low in the NFL

 

I think I'm getting to the point where i don't really care what his long term sustainability is. If he's going to be our QB beyond this year, he has to do something to help us win games. Rex clearly like's him, so he'll probably stick if Rex sticks. You aren't guaranteed to be more likely to get injured because you run.

 

Rg3 hurt his knee in crappy grass, not running down the middle of the field or getting lit up by a linebacker. I think wilson got his foot stepped on.

 

Vick was constantly banged up i feel, but he never really learned to slide. He also got injured a few times in the pocket.

 

I'd say Vick/Kaepernick are the most similar comparisons to Tyrod. You can probably get to the playoffs with him, but you need other things to go well.

Then you need to move on. You cannot win long term with someone so limited from the pocket. That is proven

 

My only concern then becomes short term. Rex would be involved in the decision should he stay - he's not going to want to go into next year with Cardale. It's Geno all over again - even if Cardale is better - he'll look at it as a lame duck year.

[MAJBobby]

 

I think I'm getting to the point where i don't really care what his long term sustainability is. If he's going to be our QB beyond this year, he has to do something to help us win games. Rex clearly like's him, so he'll probably stick if Rex sticks. You aren't guaranteed to be more likely to get injured because you run.

 

Rg3 hurt his knee in crappy grass, not running down the middle of the field or getting lit up by a linebacker. I think wilson got his foot stepped on.

 

Vick was constantly banged up i feel, but he never really learned to slide. He also got injured a few times in the pocket.

 

I'd say Vick/Kaepernick are the most similar comparisons to Tyrod. You can probably get to the playoffs with him, but you need other things to go well.

Ok i can get there with you. But unlike this summer i want real competition or him in the form of a top end draft pick.

 

I just feel that is his option his picked up they will go the route they did this offseason and get no competition for him. Then delaying the inevitable (not good enough at QB) another year.

 

***still dont like rewarding his bad play by picking up his option, but i think you are correct if Rex stays so does Tyrod (good, bad or indifferent). Personally, Rex should not have a say here, but think he will***

Edited November 1, 2016 by MAJBobby

[BuffaloHokie13]

Ok i can get there with you. But unlike this summer i want real competition or him in the form of a top end draft pick.

 

I just feel that is his option his picked up they will go the route they did this offseason and get no competition for him. Then delaying the inevitable (not good enough at QB) another year.

 

***still dont like rewarding his bad play by picking up his option, but i think you are correct if Rex stays so does Tyrod (good, bad or indifferent). Personally, Rex should not have a say here, but think he will***

What competition did you want them to bring? Clearly the FO didn't like Lynch enough to pick him over Lawson, and clearly they liked Cardale enough to take him as future competition. I'm certainly biased towards Tyrod for many reasons, but even I am happy to admit that at this point (and even at the draft) I liked him as the short term (2-3 year) bridge and I like Cardale (or another prospect from this or next year) as the long term solution.

Edited November 1, 2016 by BuffaloHokie13

[MAJBobby]

What competition did you want them to bring? Clearly the FO didn't like Lynch enough to pick him over Lawson, and clearly they liked Cardale enough to take him as future competition. I'm certainly biased towards Tyrod for many reasons, but even I am happy to admit that at this point (and even at the draft) I liked him as the short term (2-3 year) bridge and I like Cardale (or another prospect from this or next year) as the long term solution.

They loved Prescott (take him in 3rd). They like Wentz (have the balls pull the trigger).

 

Nope get a 4th round long term project and team him with David Lee (ha ha ha).

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

What competition did you want them to bring? Clearly the FO didn't like Lynch enough to pick him over Lawson, and clearly they liked Cardale enough to take him as future competition. I'm certainly biased towards Tyrod for many reasons, but even I am happy to admit that at this point (and even at the draft) I liked him as the short term (2-3 year) bridge and I like Cardale (or another prospect from this or next year) as the long term solution.

 

I didn't like lynch really where he went either. I think we should bring in more competition. We can't hand #1 to TT, or #2 to cardale. They should all be competing.

 

Ok i can get there with you. But unlike this summer i want real competition or him in the form of a top end draft pick.

 

I just feel that is his option his picked up they will go the route they did this offseason and get no competition for him. Then delaying the inevitable (not good enough at QB) another year.

 

***still dont like rewarding his bad play by picking up his option, but i think you are correct if Rex stays so does Tyrod (good, bad or indifferent). Personally, Rex should not have a say here, but think he will***

 

If you were the Coach and the GM took away your QB, you'd expect them to call you and say i have a plan beyond... uhhh chad kelly?! Especially after what went down in NY. Sanchez was not good, but i think he expected something beyond Geno Smith.

[BuffaloHokie13]

They loved Prescott (take him in 3rd). They like Wentz (have the balls pull the trigger).

 

Nope get a 4th round long term project and team him with David Lee (ha ha ha).

I saw reports that they liked Wentz, I saw reports that they loved Lynch, I saw reports that they loved Prescott, I saw reports that they were enamored with Cardale. At the end of the day their actions showed only one of these things was true.

[MAJBobby]

I saw reports that they liked Wentz, I saw reports that they loved Lynch, I saw reports that they loved Prescott, I saw reports that they were enamored with Cardale. At the end of the day their actions showed only one of these things was true.

Yeah so tell me again hoe much influence Whaley actually has with Def, (Trade up) Def, Def.

 

They were not brining in competition for Rex's choice at QB. And actions show that

[BuffaloHokie13]

Yeah so tell me again hoe much influence Whaley actually has with Def, (Trade up) Def, Def.

 

They were not brining in competition for Rex's choice at QB. And actions show that

I suppose. If you asked most people, even the day of the draft, they thought Shaq and Reggie were both 1st round talents and we wound up getting both without having a premier draft slot. I was hoping for WR help, personally, but I still thought they did well from a BPA standpoint.

[The Frankish Reich]

No it doesnt if you look at your incompletions by type stat they have you will see the throwaways and they are not of the bad pass count

 

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-incompletions-by-type/2016/

Interesting stuff. Although clear "throwaways" aren't counted, am I correct that the "bad pass" definition would count two different things? 1. Just plain misses. Guy is open, throw is so far off the mark as to be uncatchable. 2. Guy isn't wide open, ball isn't "thrown away", but it's still uncatchable because the QB deliberately threw long/short/wide to avoid a possible interception. I ask this because we see a lot of (2) with Tyrod. It's why his interception rate is so low. And that's a good thing usually, but taken to extreme it means that he's giving up a lot of chances for success too. Risk aversion has its limits as an effective strategy. You have the Broncos 2015 defense, I'm all for extreme risk aversion. But no one is comparing the Bills 2016 defense to that.

 

And of course, you'll be less risk averse if you have a Sammy Watkins who can win that 50/50 ball challenge. I see the point of being cautious when you'd be asking Walt Powell to make that play. But still, if you're going to beat a team that should be expected to put up 30 or 40 points on you--and at this point, why would we expect anything less from a Pats with Brady offense?--extreme caution is a recipe for another one in the loss column.

[BarleyNY]

Great work here, Bobby! Thanks for your work.

Edited November 1, 2016 by BarleyNY

[Dragonborn10]

Ok Maj I will gladly accept your stats if you will accept mine

 

TT has 2 INT. Tied with Sam Bradford, Dak Prescott, and Russell Wilson for league low by QB's who have played the majority of their teams games. Most have 4 and as many as 11 INT's. If you will, that means that anywhere from 2-9 of these other QB's "Bad Throws" end in interceptions not just incompletions.

 

If I agree three and out's are bad would you agree turnovers are worse aside from the mythical 50 yard INT on third and twenty?

 

And how about QBR? TT is 8th in QBR. Ahead of Rivers, Luck, Dalton, Carr, and a host of other players. Yes he is a long way away from Brady's league leading QBR but so is everyone else.

 

Add his running ability which is elite and usually ends up in one great play a game - TD run last week , third and forever against the Cardinals - and it makes up for a missed throw or two a game.

 

I will concede his deep throws this year have been dreadful - missed wide-open Woods for an easy score against Rams is the worst example. He doesn't step up in the pocket as much as I like. Wilson and Brees do and they are the same height. He can do better.

 

But he extends plays as well as any QB in the league. I would argue as other have that he needs to just run when he does that. Example last week he flipped the ball to Gillislee on third down and he was stopped a yard short of first down marker. He should have ran that and turned Gillislee into a blocker. He would have gotten the first down.

 

Add a healthy Watkins and this season is significantly different. Excuse - yes. Fact - yes.