GunnerBill Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 The idea has been perpetuated here that Hoyer equals "bottoming out". I want to challenge that with... you know.... numbers. Hoyer's regular season career record as a starter is 16-16. When you look at the record in games where he has been playing as a starter (ie. not because the starter is injured) his record is a winning one. He had a winning record when doing his cruciate ligament in 2013 against the Bills, a winning record when benched for Manziel in Cleveland in 2014, and a winning record as the starter in Houston last season. I would argue that if you put him on this Bills team at less than half of Tyrod's 2017 cost and spent the money to keep or replace Gilmore, keep Zach Brown and bring in a vet Safety then the Bills team would be a lot better than the Browns teams he went 10-7 with and at least as good if not a bit better than the Houston team he went 5-4 with. I don't think swapping out Tyrod for Hoyer plus the cap space to fill key positions would be a downgrade indeed I submit it would be an opportunity to get a little better. Would I swap Tyrod straight up for Hoyer at the same $$$s? No way. But that isn't what we are discussing. We are talking about whether Tyrod's play is significant enough of a factor in the W column to justify the money associated with the option. I understand the people who say "the Quarterback is the most important player on the field you never willingly downgrade even just a little bit if you want to improve" I am just not sure I agree with them. If it is a game manager at $16m or a game manager of a different style at $5m then even the $16m guy being a little bit better does not justify the $$ differential and that difference might cost you 3 other pieces. Just my opinion of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Don't take my posts as knocking anything about the passing game. Especially great passing games led by elite QBs (they are in woefully short supply). And perhaps you are taking "run to win" too literally. Maybe "run to seal the deal" would be better. Great teams can pound the rock when needed to close the deal. NE*** included. Anyway, when you have a few days with nothing better to do, crunch all the historical numbers and you'll see. It was coaches that coined the phrase "pass to score, run to win" and there's a reason for that. I get that the same coaches that are so adverse to do what stats really say you should do in terms of going for it on 4th. And 2 point conversions This stands to reason and is really common sense. We won't be in a position to draft a QB that has any REASONABLE chance of stepping in and these young never weres like Garrapolo, Glennon, etc., won't have had 6 seasons in the league and two seasons in the same system. For better or worse, the Bills will have to retain TT while grooming a better QB behind him to be his replacement eventually. Derek Carr 2nd round pick There are QBs in every draft you can find. Again risk adverse fans just like the offense I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 I get that the same coaches that are so adverse to do what stats really say you should do in terms of going for it on 4th. And 2 point conversions That's ironic given that it was the league's first analytic stats guru who coined the phrase in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 The idea has been perpetuated here that Hoyer equals "bottoming out". I want to challenge that with... you know.... numbers. Hoyer's regular season career record as a starter is 16-16. When you look at the record in games where he has been playing as a starter (ie. not because the starter is injured) his record is a winning one. He had a winning record when doing his cruciate ligament in 2013 against the Bills, a winning record when benched for Manziel in Cleveland in 2014, and a winning record as the starter in Houston last season. I would argue that if you put him on this Bills team at less than half of Tyrod's 2017 cost and spent the money to keep or replace Gilmore, keep Zach Brown and bring in a vet Safety then the Bills team would be a lot better than the Browns teams he went 10-7 with and at least as good if not a bit better than the Houston team he went 5-4 with. I don't think swapping out Tyrod for Hoyer plus the cap space to fill key positions would be a downgrade indeed I submit it would be an opportunity to get a little better. Would I swap Tyrod straight up for Hoyer at the same $$$s? No way. But that isn't what we are discussing. We are talking about whether Tyrod's play is significant enough of a factor in the W column to justify the money associated with the option. I understand the people who say "the Quarterback is the most important player on the field you never willingly downgrade even just a little bit if you want to improve" I am just not sure I agree with them. If it is a game manager at $16m or a game manager of a different style at $5m then even the $16m guy being a little bit better does not justify the $$ differential and that difference might cost you 3 other pieces. Just my opinion of course. Too bad Hoyer is made of glass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 I just want to point out that: 1) You have absolutely no idea where we would be with another QB. 2) You have absolutely no idea what Tyrod's ceiling is. 3) You have absolutely no idea what Wentz's growth potential is. I have a good idea like many what TT ceiling is. We are seeing it. 6 years in the league same issues as college. Tell it to the Falcons or Saints who cant even make the playoffs in a crap division. What has it been 3yrs since either made the playoffs? Probably at 9-7 too, as usual. So impressive. How many again for us???? That's ironic given that it was the league's first analytic stats guru who coined the phrase in the first place. And the mad scientist of the NFL in NE up in a booth does he seem to care about what RB they plug in that offense or how much he gets used? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
section122 Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 The idea has been perpetuated here that Hoyer equals "bottoming out". I want to challenge that with... you know.... numbers. For me Hoyer represents everything that MajBobby and others are arguing against doing with Tyrod. We absolutely know what Hoyer is. An average QB in this league. He is 31 as opposed to 27 for Tyrod. He (imo) isn't going to improve or get better. He is what he is at this point and that isn't adding in the fact that he would be new to the system, isn't nearly as mobile, is less accurate over his career, he isn't someone I would look at as an improvement over Tyrod. Put it another way. If Brian Hoyer is our day 1 starter next year who thinks we have a shot at the playoffs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 I get that the same coaches that are so adverse to do what stats really say you should do in terms of going for it on 4th. And 2 point conversions Derek Carr 2nd round pick There are QBs in every draft you can find. Again risk adverse fans just like the offense I guess It's not about being risk averse. It's about what the odds dictate. Derek Carr is the exception, not the rule. The simple fact is that finding a great player at the most important and difficult position in all of sports is rare, especially outside of the top end of the draft. I'm not averse to picking a QB in the draft, especially if he's BPA at the time, but I know the odds are stacked against ANY rookie QB coming in and outperforming a Tyrod Taylor in his first year. And I know it won't sit well with the rest of the team, especially veterans who have been around the block to sell them on the idea of spending a year regressing at the position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maury Ballstein Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Tell it to the Falcons or Saints who cant even make the playoffs in a crap division. What has it been 3yrs since either made the playoffs? Probably at 9-7 too, as usual. So impressive. Not passing is where it's at ! Brees and Matty ice should study Tyrod. #cot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
section122 Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 And the mad scientist of the NFL in NE up in a booth does he seem to care about what RB they plug in that offense or how much he gets used? You realize for all the winning NE has done over the last 15+ years they have won 1 SB over the last 12 years? They have an all time great at QB and HC. It speaks exactly to the point of winning with the run. NE won their first 3 Super Bowls with defense and last second fgs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 For me Hoyer represents everything that MajBobby and others are arguing against doing with Tyrod. We absolutely know what Hoyer is. An average QB in this league. He is 31 as opposed to 27 for Tyrod. He (imo) isn't going to improve or get better. He is what he is at this point and that isn't adding in the fact that he would be new to the system, isn't nearly as mobile, is less accurate over his career, he isn't someone I would look at as an improvement over Tyrod. Put it another way. If Brian Hoyer is our day 1 starter next year who thinks we have a shot at the playoffs? I don't like Hoyer on this team either but Hoyer at a 5M cap hit is better than TT at a 16M cap hit. Value is better (as long as he can stay on the field). Give me TT at a 10M cap hit next year and I am ok, give me him at a 8M cap hit and now if value is right. Problem is that is not what we are talking he is a 16M cap hit and married to him until 2018 if option it picked up. I know I am wasting my fingers typing because I also know the Bills will Keep Rex and Pick up TT option (don't agree with either actually, but I am just a fan that stopped spending money on an inferior product) You realize for all the winning NE has done over the last 15+ years they have won 1 SB over the last 12 years? They have an all time great at QB and HC. It speaks exactly to the point of winning with the run. NE won their first 3 Super Bowls with defense and last second fgs. Wow how nice would it be to just hve the winning and shots every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 I don't like Hoyer on this team either but Hoyer at a 5M cap hit is better than TT at a 16M cap hit. Value is better (as long as he can stay on the field). Give me TT at a 10M cap hit next year and I am ok, give me him at a 8M cap hit and now if value is right. Problem is that is not what we are talking he is a 16M cap hit and married to him until 2018 if option it picked up. I know I am wasting my fingers typing because I also know the Bills will Keep Rex and Pick up TT option (don't agree with either actually, but I am just a fan that stopped spending money on an inferior product) Wow how nice would it be to just hve the winning and shots every year. I don't think you're following what the QB market is though. Here are the 2017 cap hits for starters not on their rookie contracts: Ryan Fitzpatrick - $5,000,000 Josh McCown - $5,041,667/RG3 - $9,250,000 Tom Brady - $14,000,000 Andy Dalton - $15,700,000 Tyrod Taylor - $15,913,334 Jay Cutler - $16,000,000 Alex Smith - $16,900,000 Sam Bradford - $17,000,000 Here's a link to the rest if you're curious: Spotrac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 (edited) For me Hoyer represents everything that MajBobby and others are arguing against doing with Tyrod. We absolutely know what Hoyer is. An average QB in this league. He is 31 as opposed to 27 for Tyrod. He (imo) isn't going to improve or get better. He is what he is at this point and that isn't adding in the fact that he would be new to the system, isn't nearly as mobile, is less accurate over his career, he isn't someone I would look at as an improvement over Tyrod. Put it another way. If Brian Hoyer is our day 1 starter next year who thinks we have a shot at the playoffs? But my point is you are not tied to Brian Hoyer for two years with a load of guaranteed money and Hoyer has been in the playoffs as a Quarterback. We know what he is, the same as we know what Hoyer is.... but Hoyer is disposable any time we find the upgrade we are looking for. Tyrod, if we take up the option, is not. EDIT: Look I accept we are not going to ditch TT. He will be the Quarterback here in 2017. It is when people pretend like all the alternatives are a lot worse I object. It is possible to have a rational view against taking up the option based on what we have seen of TT without being a hater or someone who believes in fantasy land alternatives. Edited November 29, 2016 by GunnerBill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
section122 Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 But my point is you are not tied to Brian Hoyer for two years with a load of guaranteed money and Hoyer has been in the playoffs as a Quarterback. We know what he is, the same as we know what Hoyer is.... but Hoyer is disposable any time we find the upgrade we are looking for. Tyrod, if we take up the option, is not. I see your point I guess I'm just not willing to admit that Tyrod is at his ceiling yet. I'm also not ready to start a season with Hoyer as I think he is worse than Tyrod (I really do see your money point tho). Yes Hoyer has been to the playoffs but Brock Osweiler is looking to pull off the same feat with the same team. I don't think anyone here wants him for any price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 I see your point I guess I'm just not willing to admit that Tyrod is at his ceiling yet. I'm also not ready to start a season with Hoyer as I think he is worse than Tyrod (I really do see your money point tho). Yes Hoyer has been to the playoffs but Brock Osweiler is looking to pull off the same feat with the same team. I don't think anyone here wants him for any price. And I understand those saying don't downgrade Quarterback in any circumstances. I just don't agree it is that cut and dried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAJBobby Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 I don't think you're following what the QB market is though. Here are the 2017 cap hits for starters not on their rookie contracts: Ryan Fitzpatrick - $5,000,000 Josh McCown - $5,041,667/RG3 - $9,250,000 Tom Brady - $14,000,000 Andy Dalton - $15,700,000 Tyrod Taylor - $15,913,334 Jay Cutler - $16,000,000 Alex Smith - $16,900,000 Sam Bradford - $17,000,000 Here's a link to the rest if you're curious: Spotrac Yeah I am tracking that RG3 cap hit is right about where I am happy with TT being because that is where the value is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Yeah I am tracking that RG3 cap hit is right about where I am happy with TT being because that is where the value is RG3's number is for a guy coming of a serious knee injury that lost his starting job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Not passing is where it's at ! Brees and Matty ice should study Tyrod. #cot Im just saying theres more than one way to skin a cat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Tyrod to me has been inconclusive which is frustrating as hell. If he was objectively terrible then the team could move on from him or gameplan around his weaknesses. If he was objectively good then the team could rebuild the offensive resources around him. But Taylor has been as much bad as he has been good. It doesn't help that the already thin skill positions have been depleted thanks to injuries to Woods, Watkins, Goodwin, and McCoy and others. It also doesn't help when judging a QB to have an effective running game and a defense that plays very well at times (Which leads to conservative game planning.) I do not think that the Bills have any better options than Tyrod. They won't be in a position to draft a QB high up and QB's worth a dam don't hit free agency (Tyrod is better than any QB that will be a free agent.) So I think giving Tyrod another year in 2017 is the teams best option. This is only Tyrod's second year as a starter under less than optimal conditions and he has preformed OK. Put more talent around him and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 If you want exciting, go watch a soccer game. I want the Bills to start winning! The Bills have won more than they have lost under Rex and Tyrod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beef Jerky Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Yeah I am tracking that RG3 cap hit is right about where I am happy with TT being because that is where the value is That is why you failed football finances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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