Gugny Posted October 26, 2016 Posted October 26, 2016 This offense is pretty damn good. Over the last 2 seasons, by any significant statistical measure, this offense either ranks around the middle of the pack, or near the top, depending on what you're looking at. As we all know, in 2015, this offense was #1 in the NFL in "big plays" (Big plays are categorized as rushing plays that are over 10 yards and passing plays that are over 25 yards) with a big play percentage of 10.04%. In 2016, so far the Bills are #2 in the NFL in big plays with a Big Play % of 10.19%. So as an offense, we're technically doing even better so far than we did last year at producing big plays, which is significant when you consider Sammy has been out all year and we have nothing else at WR. A big part of the reason our big plays are so high this year is a result of the rushing attack with 33 big play rushes, compared to 9 big play passes. In 2015 we had 70 big play rushes and 32 big play passes (the 32 big play passes ranked 12th highest in the NFL and the 70 big play rushes ranked #1 in the NFL). So far in 2016, the Bills rank: #12 in the NFL in Team Scoring Drive Efficiency (how often the offense is able to put points on the board) #6 in points per game. #8 in the NFL in drives of 10 plays or more before ending the drive with a score, turnover, or end of half/game. #11 in QB rating in red zone. #5 Red Zone scoring % (TD only) #3 in TD/INT ratio. #2 in rushing yards/game. #1 in rushing yards/attempt #1 in QB rushing yards Three main areas we can still improve: Passing yards per attempt, we are rank 27th. One caveat regarding this stat is that the Bills rank #18 in QB Air Yards which calculates how far the ball is thrown beyond the line of scrimmage to the point of reception. So we just aren't getting yards after the catch basically when we do complete passes. Partly b/c of subpar throws at times, and partly b/c our WR just aren't good/explosive. The Bills rank dead last in the NFL in YAC. We rank #24 in 3rd down conversion %. I would like this number to move up to at least around 15-18 in the NFL. We rank #30 in sack percentage (the rate of QB sacks a team suffers for every pass attempt). ln other words, we're giving up too many sacks. All three phases are to blame here in my opinion: TT, O-line, WR's. They all need to improve. So that pretty much sums up where we stand statistically on offense in the majority of statistically significant categories. There are areas we need to improve, but overall, this offense is a GOOD offense. I can't wait to see Sammy and Shady play an entire season together. Hopefully it'll happen one day. Go BILLS! I'm sure I'll be called a crusader for this, but I don't care. Most of the nice stats - especially Tyrod's - are meaningless with regard to the outcome of the game. AKA Garbage Time. This offense is only "good" when opposing defenses are playing soft.
Utah John Posted October 26, 2016 Posted October 26, 2016 (edited) The Bills have 4 wins, and in each they battled against an inferior opponent until they wore the other team out. (I include NE. I can't even remember their substitute QB's name. The Pats defense got worn down because their O was so ineffective.) Then they proceeded to pull away and win by substantial margins. In the 3 losses, two consistent factors: 1. Strong opponent D lines bottled up our running game and then shut down TT. 2. Close games where no one could make plays to win. I think this is actually Ryan ball. He wants to build a bully so he can wear other teams down. He hasn't succeeded with the Bills but the improvement is clear. This could work out OK with more skill on the O line to go with bulk. Where I think the Bills sit right now is in the second quintile. A quintile is 1/5th of the total. About 1/5th of the league is clearly better than the Bills. About 3/5th of the league is clearly or at least somewhat worse. We'll generally win about 9 games in this situation. We need our three elite players (Watkins, McCoy, Dareus) all back and all healthy in order to move up and get to the top quintile and the 10-11 win level. Edited October 26, 2016 by Utah John
John from Riverside Posted October 26, 2016 Posted October 26, 2016 The Bills have 4 wins, and in each they battled against an inferior opponent until they wore the other team out. (I include NE. I can't even remember their substitute QB's name. The Pats defense got worn down because their O was so ineffective.) Then they proceeded to pull away and win by substantial margins. In the 3 losses, two consistent factors: 1. Strong opponent D lines bottled up our running game and then shut down TT. 2. Close games where no one could make plays to win. I think this is actually Ryan ball. He wants to build a bully so he can wear other teams down. He hasn't succeeded with the Bills but the improvement is clear. This could work out OK with more skill on the O line to go with bulk. I think this is a good take I also think that people really cannot discount the injuries and players on the field......given the fact that Marcel has been out what our D has done overall deserves a LOT of credit....your missing a blue chip tie blockers up but still get pressure DT in the middle of that defense but still overall finding a way to make it work. On offense....You have Sammy Watkins <-------------------------then the next guy as far as actually talent level and we have been doing without Sammy this whole year. Sammy is a guy that literally takes 2 guys to cover freeing everyone else up and we have missed him. So.....we have been limping along and finding a way to make it work (overall)
bobobonators Posted October 26, 2016 Author Posted October 26, 2016 I'm sure I'll be called a crusader for this, but I don't care. Most of the nice stats - especially Tyrod's - are meaningless with regard to the outcome of the game. AKA Garbage Time. This offense is only "good" when opposing defenses are playing soft. Wow The Bills have 4 wins, and in each they battled against an inferior opponent until they wore the other team out. (I include NE. I can't even remember their substitute QB's name. The Pats defense got worn down because their O was so ineffective.) Then they proceeded to pull away and win by substantial margins. In the 3 losses, two consistent factors: 1. Strong opponent D lines bottled up our running game and then shut down TT. 2. Close games where no one could make plays to win. I think this is actually Ryan ball. He wants to build a bully so he can wear other teams down. He hasn't succeeded with the Bills but the improvement is clear. This could work out OK with more skill on the O line to go with bulk. Where I think the Bills sit right now is in the second quintile. A quintile is 1/5th of the total. About 1/5th of the league is clearly better than the Bills. About 3/5th of the league is clearly or at least somewhat worse. We'll generally win about 9 games in this situation. We need our three elite players (Watkins, McCoy, Dareus) all back and all healthy in order to move up and get to the top quintile and the 10-11 win level. I agree with your take. Good input.
Maury Ballstein Posted October 26, 2016 Posted October 26, 2016 (edited) Once we get a qb that can see the field and complete simple passes we will be way better. The offense stinks, can barely pass even with a dominant running game to open it up. Pantsed by bmore/fitz/Tannenhill Trubisky time in 17, unless we play the 49ers 16 times. Edited October 26, 2016 by Ryan L Billz
John from Riverside Posted October 26, 2016 Posted October 26, 2016 Once we get a qb that can see the field and complete simple passes we will be way better. The offense stinks, can barely pass even with a dominant running game to open it up. Pantsed by bmore/fitz/Tannenhill Trubisky time in 17, unless we play the 49ers 16 times. Gug Come on man.....when you have a O that is predicated to the run.......and we dont run...what do you think is gonna happen. This O does not stink.....they are putting up a good amount of points
Gugny Posted October 26, 2016 Posted October 26, 2016 Gug Come on man.....when you have a O that is predicated to the run.......and we dont run...what do you think is gonna happen. This O does not stink.....they are putting up a good amount of points What do I think should happen? - That the QB can actually throw accurate passes to open receivers. What do I expect to happen? - Exactly what has happened. The O does stink. Those points are in garbage time.
John from Riverside Posted October 26, 2016 Posted October 26, 2016 What do I think should happen? - That the QB can actually throw accurate passes to open receivers. What do I expect to happen? - Exactly what has happened. The O does stink. Those points are in garbage time. Now your making excuses on WHY they are 6th in the NFL in points per game
NorthBuffaloKid Posted October 26, 2016 Posted October 26, 2016 Exactly. The defense spent the first 8 minutes on the field last Sunday. The offense twiddled their thumbs. Like last year, they couldn't get themselves off the field on many 3rd and long plays.
C.Biscuit97 Posted October 26, 2016 Posted October 26, 2016 We are also 4th worse at 3 and outs - only the Fins, Rams, & 49ers are worse (aka bad teams we played). 3 and outs in the Miami heat are a huge reason why our defense faded in the 2nd half. 'You can get away with 3 and outs against crappy Qbs like Case Keenum and Kaepernick. Not so much against Big Ben and Brady.
bobobonators Posted October 26, 2016 Author Posted October 26, 2016 I may be wrong, but In the 3 losses this season, the offense has turned the ball over one time.
Reed83HOF Posted October 26, 2016 Posted October 26, 2016 We are also 4th worse at 3 and outs - only the Fins, Rams, & 49ers are worse (aka bad teams we played). 3 and outs in the Miami heat are a huge reason why our defense faded in the 2nd half. 'You can get away with 3 and outs against crappy Qbs like Case Keenum and Kaepernick. Not so much against Big Ben and Brady. ^This.. /Thread
bobobonators Posted October 26, 2016 Author Posted October 26, 2016 We are also 4th worse at 3 and outs - only the Fins, Rams, & 49ers are worse (aka bad teams we played). 3 and outs in the Miami heat are a huge reason why our defense faded in the 2nd half. 'You can get away with 3 and outs against crappy Qbs like Case Keenum and Kaepernick. Not so much against Big Ben and Brady. 3 and outs need improvement. But its also give and take - we have more 3 and outs but very few offensive turnovers. Also, look where we rank in drives of 10 plays or more: we are top 10. So we do sustain drives. But yeh, we do need to reduce 3 and outs.
C.Biscuit97 Posted October 26, 2016 Posted October 26, 2016 I may be wrong, but In the 3 losses this season, the offense has turned the ball over one time. Protecting the ball is great. But some of the reason for no picks is because we ignore giant areas of the field in our passing attack. Also, 3 and outs can almost be as bad to a tired defense.
Prickly Pete Posted October 26, 2016 Posted October 26, 2016 This offense is pretty damn good. Over the last 2 seasons, by any significant statistical measure, this offense either ranks around the middle of the pack, or near the top, depending on what you're looking at. Stats are nice, but what I wanna SEE, is the offense win a game where they take the lead with their final possession. That's when it matters.
bobobonators Posted October 26, 2016 Author Posted October 26, 2016 Protecting the ball is great. But some of the reason for no picks is because we ignore giant areas of the field in our passing attack. Also, 3 and outs can almost be as bad to a tired defense. I agree. HOWEVER, ill take a 3 and out and a punt over a turnover anyday. Also, they do sustain drives look at where they rank in drives of 10 plays or more. Top 10 in NFL. Or are we denying that fact? Stats are nice, but what I wanna SEE, is the offense win a game where they take the lead with their final possession. That's when it matters. I agree.
fridge Posted October 26, 2016 Posted October 26, 2016 We are also 4th worse at 3 and outs - only the Fins, Rams, & 49ers are worse (aka bad teams we played). 3 and outs in the Miami heat are a huge reason why our defense faded in the 2nd half. 'You can get away with 3 and outs against crappy Qbs like Case Keenum and Kaepernick. Not so much against Big Ben and Brady. I'd like to think that this stat, our lack of YAC, and our inept two minute drill hold more water about our passing game than any other nonsense that tries to fluff them up. In all three losses we were down late, had a crucial drive or two that NEEDED conversions, and we crumbled. I don't know who to blame, the college offense style, or the QB that panics if his first read isn't open and refuses to throw passes to lead his receiver. This offense boils down to this: If we run well, we have a chance to win. If we don't, we lose. There is no in between.
C.Biscuit97 Posted October 26, 2016 Posted October 26, 2016 I agree. HOWEVER, ill take a 3 and out and a punt over a turnover anyday. Also, they do sustain drives look at where they rank in drives of 10 plays or more. Top 10 in NFL. Or are we denying that fact? I agree. I appreciate the offense. If we have a lead and are able to run the ball, we are solid. However, we have a high school passing offense and are pretty much dead if we fall behind. For franchise qb money, I want more than that but I guess I'm just greedy.
fridge Posted October 26, 2016 Posted October 26, 2016 I appreciate the offense. If we have a lead and are able to run the ball, we are solid. However, we have a high school passing offense and are pretty much dead if we fall behind. For franchise qb money, I want more than that but I guess I'm just greedy. Well said.
C.Biscuit97 Posted October 26, 2016 Posted October 26, 2016 I'd like to think that this stat, our lack of YAC, and our inept two minute drill hold more water about our passing game than any other nonsense that tries to fluff them up. In all three losses we were down late, had a crucial drive or two that NEEDED conversions, and we crumbled. I don't know who to blame, the college offense style, or the QB that panics if his first read isn't open and refuses to throw passes to lead his receiver. This offense boils down to this: If we run well, we have a chance to win. If we don't, we lose. There is no in between. Agreed and YAC hangs on the qb getting the ball to the receiver in areas where he can make plays. Charles Clay in the Miami game was wide open and could have had like 39 YAC yards but the throw was behind him.
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