Lets clear up some minsconceptions about this offense

[bobobonators]

This offense is pretty damn good. Over the last 2 seasons, by any significant statistical measure, this offense either ranks around the middle of the pack, or near the top, depending on what you're looking at.

 

As we all know, in 2015, this offense was #1 in the NFL in "big plays" (Big plays are categorized as rushing plays that are over 10 yards and passing plays that are over 25 yards) with a big play percentage of 10.04%.

 

In 2016, so far the Bills are #2 in the NFL in big plays with a Big Play % of 10.19%. So as an offense, we're technically doing even better so far than we did last year at producing big plays, which is significant when you consider Sammy has been out all year and we have nothing else at WR.

 

A big part of the reason our big plays are so high this year is a result of the rushing attack with 33 big play rushes, compared to 9 big play passes. In 2015 we had 70 big play rushes and 32 big play passes (the 32 big play passes ranked 12th highest in the NFL and the 70 big play rushes ranked #1 in the NFL).

 

So far in 2016, the Bills rank:

 

#12 in the NFL in Team Scoring Drive Efficiency (how often the offense is able to put points on the board)

 

#6 in points per game.

 

#8 in the NFL in drives of 10 plays or more before ending the drive with a score, turnover, or end of half/game.

 

#11 in QB rating in red zone.

 

#5 Red Zone scoring % (TD only)

 

#3 in TD/INT ratio.

 

#2 in rushing yards/game.

 

#1 in rushing yards/attempt

 

#1 in QB rushing yards

 

 

Three main areas we can still improve:

 

Passing yards per attempt, we are rank 27th. One caveat regarding this stat is that the Bills rank #18 in QB Air Yards which calculates how far the ball is thrown beyond the line of scrimmage to the point of reception. So we just aren't getting yards after the catch basically when we do complete passes. Partly b/c of subpar throws at times, and partly b/c our WR just aren't good/explosive. The Bills rank dead last in the NFL in YAC.

 

We rank #24 in 3rd down conversion %. I would like this number to move up to at least around 15-18 in the NFL.

 

We rank #30 in sack percentage (the rate of QB sacks a team suffers for every pass attempt). ln other words, we're giving up too many sacks. All three phases are to blame here in my opinion: TT, O-line, WR's. They all need to improve.

 

 

So that pretty much sums up where we stand statistically on offense in the majority of statistically significant categories. There are areas we need to improve, but overall, this offense is a GOOD offense. I can't wait to see Sammy and Shady play an entire season together. Hopefully it'll happen one day.

 

Go BILLS!

Edited October 26, 2016 by bobobonators

[K D]

We need the big plays because we are otherwise pretty ineffective if we can't run the ball. I'm not as in love with this offense as you seem to be and Tyrod has yet to prove he can run the 2 min drill. Down by 1 TD vs the Dolphins and Ravens, we might as well been down by 20. We weren't winning those games

[bobobonators]

We need the big plays because we are otherwise pretty ineffective if we can't run the ball. I'm not as in love with this offense as you seem to be and Tyrod has yet to prove he can run the 2 min drill. Down by 1 TD vs the Dolphins and Ravens, we might as well been down by 20. We weren't winning those games

 

I would like this offense to improve in the two minute drill to end the game as well.

[Rockinon]

3rd down conversion needs to improve. To my eye, they can't seem to sustain long drives.

[Homey D. Clown]

I don't really care what they rank, as long as they score more points than the other team's offense does, but those numbers can be deceiving. Especially when you consider most of those numbers happen between the 20 yard line. What really matters are things like 3rd down percentage, drive sustainability, and trips to the red zone. everything else is stat board fodder.

[bobobonators]

3rd down conversion needs to improve. To my eye, they can't seem to sustain long drives.

 

Agreed about 3rd down conversions. The numbers reveal the following about the Bills offense: They rank #8 in the NFL in drives of 10 plays or more before ending the drive with a scoring play, a turnover or end of half/game.

 

However, they have a lot of 3 and outs as well. What does that tell me? We don't have many drives where we get a couple of first downs and then end up punting. We either have long, sustained scoring drives (we have quick strikes as well), or we have a 3 and out.

I don't really care what they rank, as long as they score more points than the other team's offense does, but those numbers can be deceiving. Especially when you consider most of those numbers happen between the 20 yard line. What really matters are things like 3rd down percentage, drive sustainability, and trips to the red zone. everything else is stat board fodder.

 

How can these numbers be deceiving? A single number/stat can be deceiving but this pretty much encompasses all pertinent statistical categories.

[Homey D. Clown]

 

Agreed about 3rd down conversions. The numbers reveal the following about the Bills offense: They rank #8 in the NFL in drives of 10 plays or more before ending the drive with a scoring play, a turnover or end of half/game.

 

However, they have a lot of 3 and outs as well. What does that tell me? We don't have many drives where we get a couple of first downs and then end up punting. We either have long, sustained scoring drives (we have quick strikes as well), or we have a 3 and out.

 

How can these numbers be deceiving? A single number/stat can be deceiving but this pretty much encompasses all pertinent statistical categories.

 

 

I'd say, only deceiving by way of effectiveness across all games. there are several games where the offense was downright putrid. If you look at these same metrics by individual game, it looks a little different, or if you take out the outlier games, like San Fran for example, the offense looks a lot more pedestrian. I know, I am being a little pedantic on the numbers, but they just don't feel like a consistently high power offense to me. I think it's a lack of passing consistency that seems to stick with me the most.

[Nanker]

What's their record again... for the record.

[bobobonators]

 

 

I'd say, only deceiving by way of effectiveness across all games. there are several games where the offense was downright putrid. If you look at these same metrics by individual game, it looks a little different, or if you take out the outlier games, like San Fran for example, the offense looks a lot more pedestrian. I know, I am being a little pedantic on the numbers, but they just don't feel like a consistently high power offense to me. I think it's a lack of passing consistency that seems to stick with me the most.

 

I get where you're coming from, but the same argument can be said about any team. When the Cardinals score 9 points one game but then 40 the following game, we as non-Cardinals fans don't remember the 9 point performance but drool over the 40pt game and wonder why we can't do that. The same standard is applied to every team. At the end of the day the numbers are what the numbers are.

 

Red zone offense, drives of ten plays or more, scoring - we have solid rankings.

What's their record again... for the record.

 

The TEAM's record is 4-3. This thread is about the offense.

[jr1]

Tyrod throws a good deep ball, struggles with the middle stuff and is elite level at ball security

[bobobonators]

Tyrod throws a good deep ball, struggles with the middle stuff and is elite level at ball security

 

I would say that's fairly accurate.

[bmur66]

Dead Last in YAC. That says something.

[PatsFanNH]

 

 

I'd say, only deceiving by way of effectiveness across all games. there are several games where the offense was downright putrid. If you look at these same metrics by individual game, it looks a little different, or if you take out the outlier games, like San Fran for example, the offense looks a lot more pedestrian. I know, I am being a little pedantic on the numbers, but they just don't feel like a consistently high power offense to me. I think it's a lack of passing consistency that seems to stick with me the most.

Weird thing is the Bills are averaging just under 27 points a game, if you take out the two outliers (week one 7 and SF 45) the average changes very little but goes up to 27 even. So the offense has been consistent as far as points go.

 

I think you may be asking how many points were garbage time points thus skewing the average?

[dulles]

3rd down conversion needs to improve. To my eye, they can't seem to sustain long drives.

I think there is a significant connection between the 3rd down conversion rate and the sack rate. The sacks lead to long third downs. Keep the QB safe and everything gets better.

[bobobonators]

Weird thing is the Bills are averaging just under 27 points a game, if you take out the two outliers (week one 7 and SF 45) the average changes very little but goes up to 27 even. So the offense has been consistent as far as points go.

 

I think you may be asking how many points were garbage time points thus skewing the average?

 

The only game the Bills have played that you can say they put up some "garbage time" stats was last week vs. the Dolphins. The ravens loss was a close loss; the Jets was also a one score game; even the Dolphins last week ended up in a one score game, but the game was already decided in reality hence garbage time stats I guess.

We haven't played a team where we're losing by 20 and they're going strictly into prevent defense and we just rack up yards/stats.

[PatsFanNH]

 

The only game the Bills have played that you can say they put up some "garbage time" stats was last week vs. the Dolphins. The ravens loss was a close loss; the Jets was also a one score game; even the Dolphins last week ended up in a one score game, but the game was already decided in reality hence garbage time stats I guess.

 

We haven't played a team where we're losing by 20 and they're going strictly into prevent defense and we just rack up yards/stats.

Well then averaging 27 points a game is very very good.

[K-9]

Jets may have been a one score game, but it was NEVER that close.

[bobobonators]

Jets may have been a one score game, but it was NEVER that close.

27-24 going into the 4th quarter.

[John from Riverside]

Truth be told there is not one game this year that we were completely out of (if we could only learn how to onside kick)

[bobobonators]

But i think they scored 10pts in 4th