CodeMonkey Posted October 26, 2016 Posted October 26, 2016 (edited) CBS with Spread (Bills +6) : All 8 take the Pats. (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks/against-the-spread/8)CBS Straight Up: All 8 take the Pats. (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks/straight-up/8)ESPN: 8 and Pick'em take the Pats and 1 Bills. (http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks)Microsoft Cortana: Went 7-8 week 7. Bills 47% chance of winning. (http://www.cortanapredictions.com/)FiveThirtyEight:. Went 8-7 week 7. Bills 48% chance of winning. ELO point spread 0.5. (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nfl-predictions/)Amos: Went 67% week 7 (and called the Bills game correctly). Bills 51% chance of winning. (http://trevorbischoff.com/2016-amos-nfl-predictions/)FiveThirtyEight has the Bills 2nd in the AFCE with a record of 9-7 (Pats 12-4) and a 50% chance of making the playoffsAmos has the Bills in 2nd in the AFCE behind the Pats with a record of 10-6. Edited October 27, 2016 by CodeMonkey
MAJBobby Posted October 26, 2016 Posted October 26, 2016 (edited) While I am not an expert (did stay at a Holiday Inn last night) I take the Pats to cover Edited October 26, 2016 by MAJBobby
CodeMonkey Posted October 26, 2016 Author Posted October 26, 2016 (edited) While I am not an expert I take the Pats to cover Yeah I have to believe the models are still biased by the NE data without Brady. Edited October 26, 2016 by CodeMonkey
Gugny Posted October 26, 2016 Posted October 26, 2016 Let me preface by saying "thank you," to Code Monkey for creating this post each week. I actually love it. But if there was EVER a week you could have taken off, it was this one!
Nighttime in Nigeria Posted October 26, 2016 Posted October 26, 2016 Let me preface by saying "thank you," to Code Monkey for creating this post each week. I actually love it. But if there was EVER a week you could have taken off, it was this one! This. I actually look forward to this thread each week.
CodeMonkey Posted October 27, 2016 Author Posted October 27, 2016 Let me preface by saying "thank you," to Code Monkey for creating this post each week. I actually love it. But if there was EVER a week you could have taken off, it was this one! What do you mean, this says the IS hope! Amos: Went 67% week 7 (and called the Bills game correctly). Bills 51% chance of winning
Dorkington Posted October 27, 2016 Posted October 27, 2016 All the analytic ones are based off data of a healthy Bills team and a Pats team missing Brady. :|
hondo in seattle Posted October 27, 2016 Posted October 27, 2016 CBS with Spread (Bills +6) : All 8 take the Pats. (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks/against-the-spread/8) CBS Straight Up: All 8 take the Pats. (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks/straight-up/8) ESPN: 7 Pats and 1 Bills with 1 not in yet. (http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks) Microsoft Cortana: Went 7-8 week 7. Bills 47% chance of winning. (http://www.cortanapredictions.com/) FiveThirtyEight:. Went 8-7 week 7. Bills 48% chance of winning. ELO point spread 0.5. (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nfl-predictions/) Amos: Went 67% week 7 (and called the Bills game correctly). Bills 51% chance of winning. (http://trevorbischoff.com/2016-amos-nfl-predictions/) FiveThirtyEight has the Bills 2nd in the AFCE with a record of 9-7 (Pats 12-4) and a 50% chance of making the playoffs Amos has the Bills in 2nd in the AFCE behind the Pats with a record of 10-6. Surprised that the statisticians and computers are giving us a roughly 50-50 chance. Flesh-and-blood humans seem much more pessimistic in their odds. All the analytic ones are based off data of a healthy Bills team and a Pats team missing Brady. :| This might explain it.
CodeMonkey Posted October 27, 2016 Author Posted October 27, 2016 (edited) All the analytic ones are based off data of a healthy Bills team and a Pats team missing Brady. :| Yeah that's the big weakness for the data driven models in a sport like football in particular where injuries are common and one player can make a HUGE difference. Plus such a short season. Edited October 27, 2016 by CodeMonkey
Nervous Guy Posted October 27, 2016 Posted October 27, 2016 Pats 63 Cripples 3 not 777-0? Improvement!
Fadingpain Posted October 27, 2016 Posted October 27, 2016 (edited) NOVEMBER 23, 2015 Foxborough, MA Bills vs. Patriots on Monday night. Tom Brady: 20 for 39 for 277 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT QB Rating: 46.4 We lost 20-13 but Tyrod and the offense had a bad night too, with Tyrod earning a pathetic 38.5 QB rating. We took Brady off his game in that game as much as I have seen in several years. He was visibly upset and frustrated. We can do it again! The key is not the D and stopping Brady. The key is Tyrod and the offense. They are going to have to come up with some points and put the ball in the end zone. If they can't do that, we have no chance. Edited October 27, 2016 by Fadingpain
PolishDave Posted October 27, 2016 Posted October 27, 2016 NOVEMBER 23, 2015 Foxborough, MA Bills vs. Patriots on Monday night. Tom Brady: 20 for 39 for 277 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT QB Rating: 46.4 We lost 20-13 but Tyrod and the offense had a bad night too, with Tyrod earning a pathetic 38.5 QB rating. We took Brady off his game in that game as much as I have seen in several years. He was visibly upset and frustrated. We can do it again! The key is not the D and stopping Brady. The key is Tyrod and the offense. They are going to have to come up with some points and put the ball in the end zone. If they can't do that, we have no chance. Dammit man! Stop giving me false hope!
Direhard Fan Posted October 27, 2016 Posted October 27, 2016 Have our sick guys cough on him before the game and hope for the best. I think we will hold our own. 24-21 Bill's. I'm 71 and still have those dreams. The good ones. Hope for the best and expect the---- Best!
CardinalScotts Posted October 27, 2016 Posted October 27, 2016 8 guys picking on cbs one guy is 3 games over. 500 (Breech) all the others are way way below .500 at this point your Hank Greenberg and they stop asking Pats 63Cripples 3 bills + 6.....so go ahead and load up on the Pats nothing to worry about right?
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted October 27, 2016 Posted October 27, 2016 8 guys picking on cbs one guy is 3 games over. 500 (Breech) all the others are way way below .500 at this point your Hank Greenberg and they stop asking bills + 6.....so go ahead and load up on the Pats nothing to worry about right? Pats will cover that easy peas.
JohnnyBuffalo Posted October 27, 2016 Posted October 27, 2016 I am frustrated and sadden to read posts that say "no chance"! You know why placebo works in clinical trials? HOPE. BELIEF. While odds may be against something there should never be no hope! I won't allow myself to think that the team I pull for won't believe they have a chance of winning and if they believe it....then maybe it's possible. Man I hope they can pull out some magic...wouldn't that be something!
bobobonators Posted October 27, 2016 Posted October 27, 2016 Both games last yr were decided by 1 score. We shut them out in NE this yr. I see another close one. Somehow.
atlbillsfan1975 Posted October 27, 2016 Posted October 27, 2016 Both games last yr were decided by 1 score. We shut them out in NE this yr. I see another close one. Somehow. I just do not see it with how banged up the Bills are. IF the Bills were as healthy as the Pats, i think it is 50/50, with Brady and Gronk. McCoy being dinged up and running like he did last year is going to cost them the game. With out a dynamic McCoy the Bills are not much to talk about on Offense.
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